Does Taiwan Army need an MBT?
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A war between NATO and WarPac would have ment total destruction too. Nevertheless both sides prepared for it.
Wars have often enough been fought to totally idiotic reasons.
Lets think about the possibility of Taiwan declaring independence. I would not bet on the PRC to react totally reasonable.
Wars have often enough been fought to totally idiotic reasons.
Lets think about the possibility of Taiwan declaring independence. I would not bet on the PRC to react totally reasonable.
Yes, the two major sides prepared for it and covered the others that didn't with alliances. This kept the balance of power in check so it would never happen. The same goes for the US/ROC relationship, it equals a balance of power that the PRC won't risk taking on. Were looking at Cold War II until the fall of Communism. It's all been done before.:duelWaylander said:
Oh, common. Cold war has often enough been close to a hot one.
Just some accidents could have made it come true.
I don't say that an invasion of Taiwan has to happen but you cannot say it is not going to happen because of the balance of power.
Just some accidents could have made it come true.
I don't say that an invasion of Taiwan has to happen but you cannot say it is not going to happen because of the balance of power.
Of course I can. There is no other reason the PLA has not commenced operations other than the fact that if they do they know America will intervene. If America hadn't been supplying the ROC to maintain the status quo this situation would have been resolved a LONG time ago. No doubt in my mind it's the balance of power keeping the peace.Waylander said:
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an invasion of taiwan would not have the same effect as soviet/warsaw pact atacking America/NATO,because i doubt china or America would want to take the crisis beyond the shores of taiwan(china would not dare an atack on American soil while America would not want to loose huge amounts of reasources atacking china itself)it would be like korea were chinese and American forces only clashed in korea itself and America would not atack china itself(despite macarthurs beggings),and yes china is very proud of the olympics being held there,china would stand to loose many things by atacking taiwan,this does not mean however that taiwan should not prepare for the worstWaylander said:
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also true, an American carrier task force would be a HUGE pain for china American naval intervention would basically insure the destruction of an chinese invasion force,this is a huge factor in keeping china from atacking taiwanBig-E said:
Roughly how much fuel and ammunition would say a PRC armored division need per day of operations? How many transports would have to cross each day just to keep it firing and moving? There would be no second echelon behind it so how deep would it be able to go? Without reliable supply (which seems impossible given that the USN would probably get involved) any invasion force would just turn into a bargaining chip for the ROC during the post conflict negotiations. One more thing, suitable landing areas for a massive amphibious assault have probably already been anticipated, probably scheduled for mining or something like that in the event of conflict.
I'm no staff officer, but my point is that at this point in time an ROC vs PRC conflict (sparked by an independence declaration for example) would more likely take the form of a punitive raid rather than an outright invasion. For all their threats the PLA knows that the most it can do (short of nuking taipei) would be to hit ports and cities in order to cripple Taiwan's economy and to turn public opinion against a pro independence geovernment. Perhaps when the PLA can credibly control the straits, the threat of direct invasion may be truly taken seriously, but by then, I'd wager, MBT's bought today would be obsolete anyway.
I'm no staff officer, but my point is that at this point in time an ROC vs PRC conflict (sparked by an independence declaration for example) would more likely take the form of a punitive raid rather than an outright invasion. For all their threats the PLA knows that the most it can do (short of nuking taipei) would be to hit ports and cities in order to cripple Taiwan's economy and to turn public opinion against a pro independence geovernment. Perhaps when the PLA can credibly control the straits, the threat of direct invasion may be truly taken seriously, but by then, I'd wager, MBT's bought today would be obsolete anyway.
I agree with this assesment...especially b/c your NOT a staff officer! IMO a Taiwan conflict would begin with a blockade mostly headed up by subs and if Taiwan didn't capitulate to their demands then they would launch LACMS and conventional SRBMs. As KGB stated, this is a campaign of terror, scare the citizens to PRCs demands. They would see how far they could push the US before they acted militarily.KGB said:
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KGB made good points but i cannot agree with him 100%.
Firstly the terror campaing is logical but I doupt it's effectivness. It has never succeed, and more often it only bring the nation suffering from the terror more closer together.
Seccondly like I said before the fact that PRC isen't capaple at the moment to invade Taiwan doesen't mean Taiwan should slag it's defence building. China is rising! And most notbly it's naval power is under dramatical and fast boost up and what now and in the past was unrealistic is quite likely possiple in future. There are already rumours about larger scale amphibious operations being adopted by PLA and the general naval presence is also improved and will do so in up comming decades. There is no indications that PRC would allow Taiwan to gain full independence so the proplem in it's roots haven' been solved. So therefore Taiwan cannot just look from the side when the most likely enemy is building it's invasion force. They need to follow on and keep up a deterent of capaple defence. Becouse if Taiwan wont follow th race, it sends an invitation card to PRC to go ahead with their plans.
Updating the existing tank fleet isen't sufficient enough, and like some rumours indicates, Taiwan is already taken intress over Leopard II which is a good choise (not least by the fact that we selected it too
)
Firstly the terror campaing is logical but I doupt it's effectivness. It has never succeed, and more often it only bring the nation suffering from the terror more closer together.
Seccondly like I said before the fact that PRC isen't capaple at the moment to invade Taiwan doesen't mean Taiwan should slag it's defence building. China is rising! And most notbly it's naval power is under dramatical and fast boost up and what now and in the past was unrealistic is quite likely possiple in future. There are already rumours about larger scale amphibious operations being adopted by PLA and the general naval presence is also improved and will do so in up comming decades. There is no indications that PRC would allow Taiwan to gain full independence so the proplem in it's roots haven' been solved. So therefore Taiwan cannot just look from the side when the most likely enemy is building it's invasion force. They need to follow on and keep up a deterent of capaple defence. Becouse if Taiwan wont follow th race, it sends an invitation card to PRC to go ahead with their plans.
Updating the existing tank fleet isen't sufficient enough, and like some rumours indicates, Taiwan is already taken intress over Leopard II which is a good choise (not least by the fact that we selected it too
)I really doubt we would sell LeoIIs to them. We already refused to sell new subs to them.
China is a much bigger economical partner to us than Taiwan.
The problem I see is that in the near future the PLAN could be able to hold the USN long enough away from Taiwan to allow their invasion forces to crush into Tapei. They will for sure not be able to defeat the USN but time is the critical factor.
It may not be big chance but to think that it could not happen is careless.
Having a relatively small bit modern tank force together with supporting elements would increase the Taiwanese capabilities to counter holes in their lines dramatically if worst case happens.
China is a much bigger economical partner to us than Taiwan.
The problem I see is that in the near future the PLAN could be able to hold the USN long enough away from Taiwan to allow their invasion forces to crush into Tapei. They will for sure not be able to defeat the USN but time is the critical factor.
It may not be big chance but to think that it could not happen is careless.
Having a relatively small bit modern tank force together with supporting elements would increase the Taiwanese capabilities to counter holes in their lines dramatically if worst case happens.
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i doubt china could cover up its amasing of reasources and a naval buildup in one area(near xiamen and quanzhou) from US intel,we would see this and know damn well it was coming and move naval forces into a position to aid taiwan they would be there before the chinese naval task force was fully ready and they would have to go head to head with the USN to get to taiwan like waves smashing against rocks,no way in hell they would break through a USN blockade,even if some forces leaked through taiwan's forces could deal with themWaylander said:
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Well (if you are talking about LeoII) if it's suitable for our woods, then it certainly work in Taiwan as well. Also it's actually quite nice solution to the tactics most likely to be used by the ROCA. Itself alone isen't stopping the PLA assault, but plays a important role in the general picture of ROCAs defense, which is however more than adequate to stop the PLA, even if you consider the possiple future adds to the PRC amphibious capapility...
I don't think that at all, the PLA is transforming into a formidable regional force. But to get to ROC you have to have amphibious landing capability and that ATM (at the moment) is one thing you don't have in sufficient capacity... Or airlift for that matter.tntsas said:maybe you still think PLA is an old amy with poor weapon.i can tell you the PLA is getting stronger and stronger.PLA has several ways to get them.
ps:what is the meaning of ATM.my english is poor.