A 2035 to 2040 Sunset for Ex Starlight?
1. As Tsai’s successor, VP William Lai Ching-te is even more ideologically wedded to the idea of independence.
(a) Once Tsai steps down at the next election, we will have a gray rhino (a 2-ton animal, with a scary horn) that is charging at the SAF if it does not look for more options to train elsewhere besides Taiwan. Currently, Taiwan has downsized its ground forces to the point of incredulity. The ROC Army is down to around 150,000 soldiers, far less than the 215,000 troops the Taiwanese MND says it needs.
(b) There is no point in pointing out the logical or reasonable to Taiwan’s DPP online army — that Taiwan is under investing in the ROC Army.
2. It seems Taiwan’s attitude is — why buy, when you can copy or engage in theft.
(a) In Feb 2021, Up Media reported that NCSIST bought Mk 41 VLS from Lockheed Martin & did some reverse engineering to develop its own VLS technology. Taiwan can only get to burn a bridge once — congrats to NCSIST for your IP theft.
(b) From the perspective of the Korean police, the Taiwan International Shipbuilding Corporation is under suspicion of paying significant bribes to get access to classified boat designs and is engaging in technology theft. A blueprint for a Korean-made submarine was leaked to Taiwan, and 5 people involved were interviewed; and at least 10 people from Daewoo Shipbuilding changed jobs to ‘Company A’, which is likely to be under the common control of directors or shadow directors in Taiwan.
3. DPP supporters are proud of a US$1.37 billion modernisation of the Kang Ding class but they don’t realise that after spending all this money, it will be much less capable than the RSN’s Formidable class. Unlike Taiwan, Singapore’s confidence in protecting our SLOCs is due to our procedural & human interoperability with Australian and American forces in multi-domain ops. The Chinese proverb, 麻雀虽小，五脏俱全 ('sparrow is small, but it’s 5 organs are complete') applies to SAF’s quad-service integration.
(a) The DPP also ignore a stain on Taiwanese character that cannot be bleached out by time; as there are multiple incidents of Taiwanese pilots defecting with their aircraft to mainland China and these include on 8 Aug 1981, flying a F-5F, MAJ Huang Zhicheng landing at Fuzhou, & on 11 Feb 1989, flying a F-5E, by LTC Lin Xianshun.
(b) Taiwanese politicians like to talk about anti-corruption but they bribe the Koreans to get classified technology and make no progress on reforming their own corrupt system. They like to talk about the economic progress but they can’t complete with Singapore’s Govt policies to foster economic competitiveness.
(c) President Tsai’s DPP has approved on more money for ROC’s defence than the Singapore Govt spends on the SAF. But ROC seems to spend the money poorly and often buys obsolete weapons (or weapons unsuited for their threat matrix). This is why I say, Taipei is Kabul on steroids. More military muscle but ultimately dishonest and weak minded.
4. The SAF has been conducting incognito military training in Taiwan under Exercise Starlight for more than two generations — we understand Taiwan’s terrain. BTW, our troops do not wear their usual uniforms (to blend in). Part of the solution to gaining more options for training areas other than Taiwan are, as follows:
One, setting up of a Singapore Fighter Training Detachment at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam under a Dec 2019 MOU with the US. This fighter training presence will begin around 2029; and consist of approximately a squadron of aircraft, associated personnel, and include the construction of hangars, aprons, and support facilities for the detachment footprint.
Two, Singapore’s A$2.25 billion investment in Australia to develop military training areas. This investment will enable the SAF to reduce its training footprint in Taiwan by 2029; & accommodate up to 14,000 troops in Australia for training (up fm 6,000 per year).
5. The Australia-Singapore Treaty on Military Training & Training Area Development (Treaty on MT&AD) signed on 23 Mar 2020, is intended to help us avoid the Gray Rhino of Taiwan. Under the Treaty on MT&AD, facilities will be expanded by 2024 for SWBTA & 2028 for the GVTA. The Combined Arms Air-Land Ranges currently being developed will allow the Singapore Army and the RSAF to train together with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, drones, artillery and other combined arms platforms.
6. The coming period of tension to the 2024 Presidential Election in Taiwan may be bumpy. It will be important for American & Chinese officials to remain in direct contact; & for each side to exercise discipline, so as to focus on preserving peace & stability in Taiwan Strait.
7. Even in a worse-case 2030 scenario, an invasion of Taiwan is a risky gamble for Xi. The inherent advantages of the Taiwan’s geography & current military tech available for sale to Taiwan means that if the Taiwanese willed it, they could make their island an impenetrable fortress. But there is the catch.
The Taiwanese must will it. There should be a sense of a national crisis for under prepared Taiwan, in the wake of Pelosi’s visit along with Chinese civilians & the PLA ramping up of hostilities — instead we just see Taiwanese propaganda.
8. DPP is supposed to unite the Taiwanese against PLA aggression but they didn't do anything a logical person is expected to do except brainwash Taiwan into greater complacency & attempt to silence all criticism on their lack of preparedness.
9. The above slogan is not a a substitute for having a 60 day supply of ammo.
10. The DPP online army seeks to clarify information unfavorable to the DPP & "1450" is the code name. Any news that was not conducive to the DPP authorities would be classified as "false news" by 1450 groups or face trolling by their supporters. But the truth is easy to see. But my posts here are not as effective as Paul Huang’s below (at illustrating the dysfunctional culture of ‘service’ in Taiwan). At an institutional level, the ROC Army is just going through the motions with the ‘reserves’ they call up for training — instead of doing it properly.
