Part 1 of 3: Delta from 0% to over 80% in 10 weeks
Here in the UK official guidance is that you should have both doses of any of the vaccines for which the manufacturers recommend two doses, but giving a third dose of a different vaccine as a booster is currently being considered.
Almost 90% of adults here have now had one dose, & about 65% two doses, & I think the plan is to fully vaccinate everyone willing before starting on boosters.
1. UK despite its high vaccination rate is having difficulty in managing the spread of the Delta (aka one of the coronavirus variants first detected in India - the B.16172) and the British variant B.1.1.7. I also worry about the spread of the B.1.525 ("Nigerian") coronavirus variant that combines traits of B1.1.7 (British) with B.1.351 (South-African). Almost 45.7 million people in UK have had a first vaccine dose - about 87% of the adult population - and more than 34 million have had a second. The number of first doses administered each day is now averaging at about 98,000 in UK - far below a peak of some 500,000 in mid-March. An average of more than 160,000 second doses are now being given a day, with the delivery of second doses accelerated in UK in response to the emergence of the Delta variant, first identified in India.
(a) Likewise, Israel is a 60% 2-dose Pfizer vaccinated country is also struggling with the Delta variant. Israel said the country will begin offering a third dose of Pfizer Inc's vaccine to adults with weak immune systems but it was still weighing whether to make the booster available to the general public. Israeli data shows that in June it had 2,395 Covid-19 cases
- 57% unvaccinated = 1373
- 4% partially vaccinated = 90
- 39% vaccinated = 932
Today, there are 34 severely ill patients in hospital
- 59% unvaccinated = 20
- 6% partially vaccinated = 2
- 35% vaccinated = 12
(b) In the latest sign of the uneven state of the coronavirus pandemic around the world, a slew of countries in the Asia-Pacific region are rushing to impose restrictions on movement to contain surging cases, a full year and a half into a pandemic that many had originally handled deftly. Thailand is introducing a seven-hour nightly curfew, South Korea is introducing curbs in capital Seoul and Vietnam is locking down after setting fresh records for daily case numbers or deaths this week. Indonesia has had to source emergency oxygen supplies from neighboring Singapore as it struggles with shortages, the Associated Press reported.
2. A study in Singapore showed that the B.16172:
(a) has a higher viral load (Australian studies show that previous or earlier variants spread to 25% of household members vs 100% spread to household members) and fleeting exposures of just 5-10 seconds is now enough with the new Delta variant;
(b) is able to spread to vaccinated (2 shots) to unvaccinated, which led to large transmission chains in Singapore that even our world class contact tracing and testing regime struggled to cope with for 2 to 3 weeks; in a Singapore Delta variant cluster that was in the study, among 29 vaccinated who got infected, 21 transmissions events were between vaccinated-to-vaccinated or vaccinated-to-unvaccinated; and
(c) has been shown to cause more unvaccinated people who are infected (by percentage) to be hospitalised and increases the need of the infected for oxygen to survive, which increases the load on hospitals.
3. A 90-year-old woman who died after falling ill with Covid-19 was infected with both the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and B.1.351 (Beta) variants of the coronavirus at the same time, researchers in Belgium said on 10 July 2021, adding that the rare phenomenon may be underestimated. The unvaccinated woman, who lived alone and received at-home nursing care, was admitted to the OLV Hospital in the Belgian city of Aalst after a spate of falls in March and tested positive for Covid-19 the same day. While her oxygen levels were initially good, her condition deteriorated rapidly and she died 5 days later. According to the CDC, there are four notable variants in the US:
- B.1.1.7 (Alpha): This variant was first detected in the US in Dec 2020. It was initially detected in the UK.
- B.1.351 (Beta): This variant was first detected in the US at the end of Jan 2021. It was initially detected in South Africa in December 2020.
- P.1 (Gamma): This variant was first detected in the US in Jan 2021. P.1 was initially identified in travelers from Brazil, who were tested during routine screening at an airport in Japan, in early January.
- B.16172 (Delta): This variant was first detected in the US in Mar 2021. It was initially identified in India in Dec 2020.
These variants seem to spread more easily and quickly than other variants, which may lead to more cases of COVID-19. An increase in the number of cases will put more strain on healthcare resources, lead to more hospitalizations, and potentially more deaths; and vaccines alone is not the solution for the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, UK or North America.
4. To combat the spread of Covid-19, TraceTogether, SafeEntry requirements to be reintroduced in supermarkets in Singapore. Singapore’s MOH said the high volume of patrons in supermarkets increases the risk of transmission. The reintroduction of the rule requirement will facilitate more targeted contact tracing for those who visited indoor buildings at the same time as an infected person, the ministry said. In Singapore on 9 July 2021, 3.9 million first doses of the vaccine has been administered and 1/3 of the population or 2.3 million have completed the full vaccination regimen of the 2nd dose.
(a) Singapore encourages mask wearing even after vaccination but will move to a new normal after a large percentage is vaccinated — the tiny country is on track after relaxing the latest round of restrictions on 13 June 2021 and is currently providing 60,000 vaccine jabs per day.
(b) From 12 Jul 2021 onwards: (i) groups of 5 allowed to dine in; (ii) resumption of wedding receptions — weddings with no more than 250 attendees allowed with pre-event testing. For wedding receptions with 50 attendees or fewer, pre-event testing will be required for the wedding party only; (iii) the cap on group sizes for indoor activities such as gyms raised to 5; and (iv) gatherings at the workplace must be limited to a total size of no more than 5 people.
(c) From 15 July 2021: mandatory, routine fast and easy tests for staff in higher-risk settings to start. From 16 July 2021 onwards, antigen rapid tests kit will be sold at supermarkets, and convenience stores.
5. With its testing capacity and ability to acquire vaccine stocks for its entire population, Singapore has been
punching above its weight in fighting against
the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition:
(a) Blood samples from 3 patients in Singapore were used to develop
the experimental antibody cocktail used to treat former US President Donald Trump after he tested positive for the coronavirus. Singapore’s National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) had responded to a collaboration request from US biotechnology firm Regeneron - the company which developed that antibody cocktail - with no claim of intellectual property right over the treatment.
(b) Regeneron eventually
used 3 of the 5 Singapore patient samples as the research starting point to develop the antibodies. Regeneron's treatment, called REGN-COV2, is a combination or 'cocktail' of two antibodies, which are infection-fighting proteins that were developed to bind themselves to the virus and inhibit it from invading human cells.
(c) The key is having a large enough sample of infected to develop the science of treatment and having a superb contact tracing capability in Singapore to gather reliable data and study the spread of new variants.
6. In the US, Covid-19 is now a
pandemic of the unvaccinated, according to the head of the US CDC. In Alabama, state officials report
94% of COVID hospital patientsand
96% of Alabamians who have died of COVID since April were not fully vaccinated. Every new case provides chance for further mutation. Delta went from 0% to over 80% of cases in 10 weeks. As children get infected, any mutation that can better infect their vaxxed parents (and their parents' friends) will have a selection advantage.
