Post 2 of 2:
9. As others like
@cdxbow have noted, how did the most powerful country in the world, years of preparation (including the ignored playbook) and the largest medical science establishment do so badly?
10. Nothing epitomises this more than Americans stupid enough to politicise masks during a once in a century pandemic.
11. If you wrote it as fiction, 5 years ago, people would not believe it.
What exactly is it that's doing the suppressing?
...But like I said, a civilized society must look at how to approach the problem and minimize the attack on personal freedoms. And that means you go beyond a computer program and examine what it is that actually works.
Which government actually bothered to study how infectious the virus is in open air? And if there are studies (which will show what I wrote before), do you think they are being followed by any government? They are not, because no government cares if it's being heavyhanded or not.
...except the definition of "heavyhanded" is different in China, Korea, Australia, and US, that's all.
12. But unlike some parts of the US (where less than 10% wear masks), mask wearing is mandated by laws and ultimately enforced by fines or jail time in Singapore. But this process starts with a request from others to put on a mask. If a person refuses, he or she is often charged with being a public nuisance and other counts of violating CORVID-19 rules. Very often before sentencing, they are given some level of mental health support.
(a) Public education is of course important; but it needs to be augmented by enforceable laws. Building the right culture of compliance (of above 95%) through education, is only one leg of the stool to success in pandemic management.
(b) Extensive testing, like Korea or Singapore, is the 2nd leg of the stool — which I will explain more in paragraphs 15 to 18 below.
(c) But the third leg of the stool is the level of compliance with scientific recommendations, to mitigate risk. To get high levels of compliance (above 95%, within 2 to 3 months), you need both laws/rules and public education. Proposing to only rely on public education can only work, if your goal is 95% or greater compliance in 2 to 3 years. That is too slow to stop the coming American Pandemic wave hitting your hospitals in 1Q2021.
(d) In Singapore, following the recommendations of experts and using epidemiology, the country sought to seek initial results after 11 days, from 7 Apr 2020. As Prime Minister Lee said: “We are working to break the chain of transmission... to reduce the number of new cases,” sharing an article on experts’ stock-take of the measures on Day 11, when it was hoped that positive effects would show. By day 12 — the enhanced measures adopted in Singapore which entailed the closures of non-essential workplaces and schools — saw the first results of success. This was only possible with high compliance levels.
(e) Lack of compliance in a high risk scenario should be punished. For example, on 13 May 2020, an American commercial pilot who
breached a stay order (SHN) in early April was sentenced to four weeks' jail. Brian Dugan Yeargan, 44, who pleaded guilty to an offence under the Infectious Diseases Regulations 2020, arrived in Singapore from Australia on 3 April 2020. He was deported after his sentence.
Do you have any data to support this? The success of lockdowns/suppression in countries like Singapore, China, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea is not consistent with your view. Simply hand waving the issue away as a multivariate problem ignores the fact that a suppression based strategy involving the temporary sacrifice of personal freedoms has been demonstrably effective in a variety of countries and contexts.
Rather, it strikes me that the failure to implement suppression early, widely and decisively enough is what has gotten other nations (like the US) into trouble. The genie is out of the bottle, hence the difficulty now being faced.
13.
@Boagrius also makes an effective argument that PhysicsMan is being difficult — in his posts. In a diverse range of countries that includes Singapore, wearing of masks is mandated. For Singapore, it is mandated in any public transport, in every mall, in every shop and in every hair dresser. The country has come out of our circuit breaker with the pandemic under control and a over strength contact tracing department.
14. With a single digit infection rate, in Singapore, there is little or no contact tracing work to be done (that we have let the extra army manpower mobilised take a step back from this role) and it is fully civilian led. With 1 in 5 residents of Singapore tested, we look at US testing efforts as a
shambolic failure to plan of epic proportions.
15. To give you an idea of how science helps, Singapore has coated most lift buttons with a compound that does not allow any virus to linger. Everyone has been given free masks by the government. Before pre-school child care was reopened, the country tested every child care provider before they reopened — to close off a risk, as it was a source of spread. I say again — ALL CHILD CARE staff in the country — was tested. The country took numerous extreme but calculated measures to break the chain of spread. It requires a level of competence that the American state governments cannot hope to achieve.
16. That’s how we moved from over 1,400 new cases a day, at the peak in April to about 1/3 of the numbers in May. The fall to about 500 per day in May was the 1st sign of success and it is almost nothing in December. Mask wearing and increasing testing capacity, is just a small part of the complete picture, for mitigation of spread (
reducing the R0).
17. Testing effectiveness is not just about the absolute number of tests but how it routinely is being done for targeted groups, like essential workers, like bus drivers, train drivers, police, fire men, air traffic controllers, harbour pilots, immigration staff, prisons officers, health care workers and so on, in Singapore. So the story is not just about masks in a population of 6.5 million, it’s about onion layers of protection. If one fails, what is the next risk mitigation measure.
Total number of deaths in Singapore as at 3 Dec 2020
29 out of 58,230 infected
Number of Swabs Tested (as of 30 Nov 2020)
4,658,858
Average Daily Number Of Swabs Tested Over The Past Week in Singapore
~30,100
Total Unique Persons Swabbed per million vs Total Population in Singapore
~213,700
18. From Sep onwards, 95% to 99% of Singapore’s new CORVID-19 cases come from returning Singaporeans from abroad. Upon entry they are tested and serve a SHN in a hotel before being granted their freedom. Singapore manages this risk from our returnees through masks and hand washing, as they come through immigration and are sent to their assigned hotel for 14 days.
19. Things are not like 2019 but it is close to normal in Singapore. Last nite, I went out to drink wine in a restaurant that practiced social distancing between groups of clients and no more than 5 to a group in Singapore. Everyone wore a mask, scanned a QR code to aid contact tracing, and had their temperature taken, to enter the premises. You are not allowed to remove your masks until food is served.
20. And then we discover 1 community case and the contact tracers are working at full speed — to notify and serve SHN to everyone in close contact and affected — in 72 hours, every close contact who shows symptoms are tested. To enter any shop or mall, you scan a QR code to aid contact tracing. As everyone is wearing masks, except at meals or outdoor exercise, the risk of exposure to Singaporeans even in malls and lifts is being managed.
