Chrom,
You're speculating that the Russian designers could've somehow reproduced conditions in which their ERA would operate including a copy of the M829A1/A3 penetrator rod. Next they fired it from some sort of a tank gun achieving highest possible velocity they suspect would be coming out of the 120mm tank gun.
Yes. As i said, general APFSDS design is nothing fancy - it is just a dart of given length, width and speed.
That is an interesting and plausible scenario. I am not saying this is impossible but let's face it, the Russian engineers would have to make a few assumptions.
some assumtions, yes. But these assumtions will likely make a difference between reducing rod penetration by 35% or 30%, and NOT something radical between 50% and 5%.
Now, don't you think the reverse process is just as likely. The ERA technology is well known to the western developers but the strategy planners were always in favor of good old heavy block of solid armor. They could count on good engines, transmissions, FCS, tracks, suspension so it's no wonder.
ERA technology differs to MUCH, MUCH higher degree. There is generation in ERA development between K-5 and "Relict" . Saying general "ERA" is like saying just "anti-tank round" - without even specifing HEAT of APFSDS, and if HEAT then tandem or not .
K-5 differs from Relict more than 50x style APDS differs from 70x style APFSDS. Next gen ERA is even more different. As such, it is very, VERY unlikely DM-63 desinger could foresee, let alone build something similar to "Relict"
They wouldn't have to acquire samples of Russia's latest ERA, they could have made some on their own and then tested their own rounds against it. They would make adjustments in the design to make sure it's still effective.
As i said, they couldnt. They could build something similar to K-5, but not to "Relict". Becouse "Relict" is radically different from "K-5". Like the difference betwen tandem and usuall warhead.
Another example: Surery, producers of TOW-2B advertise what this ATGM can penetrate ERA. Yes, they are right - it can penetrate old K-5 and new Israel, French, USA ERA. But "Relict" have anti-tandem capabilty, and will strongly affect TOW-2B. Note, affect not becouse of small change. Affect becouse of redically different ERA design. Now tell us what TOW-2B devolpers surery could build somethins similar to russian ERA...
As it stands, Russians simply have no reason to chase after the West and match their improvements. All the Russian weapons manufacturers need is to be able to sell their hardware and survive on the market. Their niche is the medium to lower end customer base which demands cheap or barter.
And now, you want to tell us what West SURERY have a big, compelling REASON to chase after Russians to match they development?
Please, take symmetrical stance. Either:
1. both Russia and USA dont care about each other - and then Russia do not design ERA to stop
specifically USA APFSDS - just general modern APFSDS, and USA dont design modern APFSDS to specifically stop modern Russian ERA - just general "ERA"...
or
2. Both keep an eye on each other and design they weapon accordingly. Again, the difference here in generations: M829A3 and DM-63 is the same gen APFSDS as M829A1. Slightly better, but generally the same principle. "Relict" ERA is another generation ERA than "K-5". SPECIFICALLY designed to defeat modern APFSDS rounds.
Could Russians make a world class tank, tank gun and tank ammo? You bet they could, but it would cost almost as much as Western designs and this market niche is rulled by the Germans, British, Americans (Israel isn't a tank exporter yet).
Without a doubt, T-90 right now is world-class tank. A bit worse FCS and thermals than BEST west examples, unprotected ammo compartment - but armor protection and gun is not to blame. In compensation it have same unique properties like much better HEAT protection (bane for modern tanks), very long range reach with ATGM missiles, higher mobility (weight), lower siluette (still very important at long ranges or in plains)
There is a lot of distrust towards Russians in general and many will dismiss their weapon designs as a sales pitch. This is made easier by the fact that even their own government doesn't want to buy the best of their weapons. Until then, NII-Stali can claim what they want, let them earn their credibility.
The difference here, NII-Stali claims what they product affect APFSDS round to given degree (1.2-1.5 times) . AFFSDS round manufactures DO NOT CLAIM what NII-Stali Relict ERA do not affect they rounds. They, at maximum, say something in the line "our APFSDS will penetrate any ERA". Of course they will penetrate. 70 years old round will penetrate ERA... The question is however how much reduced will be APFSDS ability to deal with passive armor...
P.S. For all we know, ERA might affect M829A3 to even higher degree than pervious rounds due thinner M829A3 round.