China's military power

[Grand Danois]

Going to have to argue this one, Germany was surrounded by enemys france and GB on one side and Russia on the other. Plus the fact that the British were in total control of all routes in and out of the Mideast, ment the Germans could be isolated.
All three were dedicated to holding german power in check. This situation could only arise with China if India the US and Russia decided to act in concert.
A war with the US/Tiawan would leave china with a secure flank. This is a luxury that Germany never had.
Who knows the Chinese may already have an agreement with Russia to garrente stratigic supplies in time of war.

Germany was also supplied for free by Stalin until Barbarossa. Germany also had a lot of occupied countries and allies with resources. The capture of France alone kept the German war machine going for more than a year. Romania had the necessary oil fields and Tropps-Fischer supplemented.

But anything outside of that? Gone.

Mostly WWI but also WWII from a German perspective are analogues of Chinas geographical disadvantage.

And thus PRC will be subject to Russian whims, that may be subject to Western whims. And there is only Russia. Everything that goes by sea is gone. The infrastructure for that kind of supplies overland is also absent, even if Russia was able to supply in such massive amounts from on short/medium notice. It is soo much easier to transport by sea. Even if the infrastructure was in place it would pale compared with sea transport.

Nevertheless, it was the naval side of it I addressed. IF PRC whishes to play the naval game in case of a conflict, say by creating a permanent or temporary access denial zone out to "the first island chain" it may be able to do so one day, especially considered the asymmetric advantage as given by the theater proximity of the PRC.

But outside that zone of denial the PRC will have to meet opponent symmetrically. That means CBG's and SSN's, strategic bombing capability, basing, etc..

So "zone of denial" capability is only useful in an invasion of Taiwan situation.

They practically can't break out, just like the Kriegsmarine or Hochseeflotte...

 

[merocaine]

Germany was also supplied for free by Stalin until Barbarossa. Germany also had a lot of occupied countries and allies with resources. The capture of France alone kept the German war machine going for more than a year. Romania had the necessary oil fields and Tropps-Fischer supplemented.

But anything outside of that? Gone.

Mostly WWI but also WWII from a German perspective are analogues of Chinas geographical disadvantage.

And thus PRC will be subject to Russian whims, that may be subject to Western whims. And there is only Russia. Everything that goes by sea is gone. .

of course but I dont see china invading Russia while there at war with the US!

But to be fair I dont envision a long war taking place with unlimited geographical boundreys, I see a short war, decided quickly, taking place in the south china sea. So comparisons to Germany in WW1 and WW2 are of limited use.
If there is a war it will take place at a time of Chinas choosing (unless Tiawan does something hasty). So if the Chinese plan carefully supplies wont become a problem, not unless the conflict becomes a protracted coilition war, which i doubt.

Nevertheless, it was the naval side of it I addressed. IF PRC whishes to play the naval game in case of a conflict, say by creating a permanent or temporary access denial zone out to "the first island chain" it may be able to do so one day, especially considered the asymmetric advantage as given by the theater proximity of the PRC.

But outside that zone of denial the PRC will have to meet opponent symmetrically. That means CBG's and SSN's, strategic bombing capability, basing, etc..

So "zone of denial" capability is only useful in an invasion of Taiwan situation.

They practically can't break out, just like the Kriegsmarine or Hochseeflotte...

If they did try to breakout as you say it could only be part of an attempt to break american power in the pasific, which if it happens will be a long way off!

I'm sure that the PLAN are planning for a "zone of denial" and they see it as something they can achive if not now then in the near future (15 - 20).
This in itself will be quite an achivement, considering the power and experience of the USN.

 

[kams]

I believe China recognizes US’s overall military, technological and economy superiority and Chinese doctrine implicitly acknowledges it can never match US in conventional terms. What China will attempt to do is to limit US military dominance over Chinese forces escalating any further. To do this, China may target US NCW capability (including ISR), modernize her conventional forces to attain local dominance within her sphere of influence (South China Sea, Taiwan), enhance strategic offensive capability to make US pause a bit. All the above three steps taken together and given time to mature will pose a serious, credible threat to any US force trying to intervene in a local conflict (aka Taiwan).

Targeting US NCW capability is a very serious threat. This may involve Computer Network Attack targeted to disrupt and paralyze the huge US logistic network. This kind of attack is deniable. They will also target US ISR capability. We saw an example of this right now when they used a laser to blind the US recon satellite. Jamming GPS signals is another much talked about option.

In my opinion all the above strategies are designed to delay US arrival to help Taiwan and force Taipei to capitulate before they arrive.

Very interesting thread and hope this will go many pages more.

 

[Big-E]

I beleive an expanded and more advanced version of soviet naval doctrine would be their best option. Instead of trying to go carrier against carrier why not swamp an enemy CBG with AShMs? By focusing their surface capability on ASW roles they can operate under land based air cover. They could also operate a number of light carrier groups for power projection against softer threats.

They're just my thoughs. May have been discussed earlier but im a bit slow!

Once AN/SPY-3 is introduced into the fleet, along with the point defense lasers scheduled on the second refit of the Zumwalts I think we can call their AShMs obsolete.

 

[Grand Danois]

of course but I dont see china invading Russia while there at war with the US!

Neither do I, but PRC would be at the mercy of the winds from Moscow.

But to be fair I dont envision a long war taking place with unlimited geographical boundreys, I see a short war, decided quickly, taking place in the south china sea. So comparisons to Germany in WW1 and WW2 are of limited use.

The war will be short precisely because of the analogy with Germany.

If there is a war it will take place at a time of Chinas choosing (unless Tiawan does something hasty). So if the Chinese plan carefully supplies wont become a problem, not unless the conflict becomes a protracted coilition war, which i doubt.

That is a lot of supplies. But when the blockade ends is not a PRC decision. They may get choked even if the fighting has subsided.

If they did try to breakout as you say it could only be part of an attempt to break american power in the pasific, which if it happens will be a long way off!

Yup.

I'm sure that the PLAN are planning for a "zone of denial" and they see it as something they can achive if not now then in the near future (15 - 20).
This in itself will be quite an achivement, considering the power and experience of the USN.

Yup.

 

[Big-E]

Don't you give anyone time to edit their posts... damn

 

[merocaine]

I believe China recognizes US’s overall military, technological and economy superiority and Chinese doctrine implicitly acknowledges it can never match US in conventional terms. What China will attempt to do is to limit US military dominance over Chinese forces escalating any further. To do this, China may target US NCW capability (including ISR), modernize her conventional forces to attain local dominance within her sphere of influence (South China Sea, Taiwan), enhance strategic offensive capability to make US pause a bit. All the above three steps taken together and given time to mature will pose a serious, credible threat to any US force trying to intervene in a local conflict (aka Taiwan).

Targeting US NCW capability is a very serious threat. This may involve Computer Network Attack targeted to disrupt and paralyze the huge US logistic network. This kind of attack is deniable. They will also target US ISR capability. We saw an example of this right now when they used a laser to blind the US recon satellite. Jamming GPS signals is another much talked about option.

Thats what I believe too, and very well put!
Thats the crux of it, the capacity of the PLA to deny the area to the USN while they carry out there operations.

 

[merocaine]

ah the old reading comp, they'll let anyone into the navy

 

[merocaine]

The war will be short precisely because of the analogy with Germany.

The whole Germany thing I just cant get my head around, I'm sorry german was at war with the 3 biggest powers in the world, who controlled most of the resources in the world.
America, controlled access to south america, britain, the middle east, Russia, more oil steel ect.
Unless the Russians capitulate to US pressure, and stop selling oil gas and weapons (which are there export earners) to the Chinese, a sea based blockade would be of limited use in the short term.
Although your right, the relationship with the russian would be vunrable, but the americans dont seem to keen to exploit this avenue at the moment.

That is a lot of supplies. But when the blockade ends is not a PRC decision. They may get choked even if the fighting has subsided.

China is a global player, it makes everything, I dont think the US would be to keen on carrying a grugde in the long term


whats the sound of one man posting

 

[Grand Danois]

The short story is that the German navy was de facto cut off in the North Sea for both WWs.

The same applies to China.

whats the sound of one man posting

Huh?

 

[merocaine]

Huh?

Bad joke, 3 posts in a row,
from whats the sound of one hand clapping.

The short story is that the German navy was de facto cut off in the North Sea for both WWs.

Yes but china doesen't have its land borders blocked.

It took a long time for the blockade to bite 3 years in WW1 and it never majorly degraded industrial production in WW2.

I'm going to take a wild guess your a navy man?

 

[Grand Danois]

Bad joke, 3 posts in a row,
from whats the sound of one hand clapping.

Oh, didn't see the other posts. The read newest post function took me straight to the last one...

Yes but china doesen't have its land borders blocked.

It took a long time for the blockade to bite 3 years in WW1 and it never majorly degraded industrial production in WW2.

The Germans suffered very badly from it. The PRC is even more dependent on supplies from the outside. And IMV the Russians won't be able to replace those needs.

I'm going to take a wild guess your a navy man?

Hehe. If I had gone mil as a career, the Navy would have been my choice. Always been fascinated with navies.

 

[Waylander]

This is off-topic but untill the battles of WWI the german navy was the second most powerfull navy in the world and just the (not that) big superiority of the RN killed it.
China is not nearly at the same level of capabilities like the german Kriegsmarine was right before WWI.

BTW, it was dumb of the german reich to try to defeat the RN in an arms race. If they would have focussed on land and air forces the WWI would have known another winner (But I'm glad that they did this mistake!).

 

[Grand Danois]

This is off-topic but untill the battles of WWI the german navy was the second most powerfull navy in the world and just the (not that) big superiority of the RN killed it.
China is not nearly at the same level of capabilities like the german Kriegsmarine was right before WWI.

BTW, it was dumb of the german reich to try to defeat the RN in an arms race. If they would have focussed on land and air forces the WWI would have known another winner (But I'm glad that they did this mistake!).

The funny thing is, that UK never considered themselves in an arms race with Germany, but rather with the navies of the whole world and saw Germany as the best potential ally.

The Boer War, personalities and politics screwed this up.

A little side story.

 

[Waylander]

That's the sad story of WWI. All big governments wanted this war and so nobody tried to stop the ongoing mobilization.

 

[RubiconNZ]

Ww1

That's the sad story of WWI. All big governments wanted this war and so nobody tried to stop the ongoing mobilization.

Exactly one big familiy feud where the Kingdoms of Europe were in one giant pissing contest.

 

[Waylander]

I think that defenitely hits the point!

 

[icelord]

with the land supplies, china has good relations with pakistan, so that little strip in the west could supply a bit of the west of china, and Kyryghstan may be a distribution point for any countries that china has good relations to supply them, russia may not want a direct involvment if china went to war with the US, but the good ol FSB would still find a way of supplying a few newly scrapped russian tanks and guns

 

[Grand Danois]

with the land supplies, china has good relations with pakistan, so that little strip in the west could supply a bit of the west of china, and Kyryghstan may be a distribution point for any countries that china has good relations to supply them, russia may not want a direct involvment if china went to war with the US, but the good ol FSB would still find a way of supplying a few newly scrapped russian tanks and guns

1. Nobody would engage China in a land war.
   
   
2. A few railroads, roads and pipelines are pitiful compared to the cargo the harbours on the Chinese coast handles. There is a reason to the coast is wealthy, while the hinterland trails behind.
   
   
3. China would have nothing to trade with.
   
   
4. I doubt Russia could make up for the gap in supplies from the rest of the world.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

russia may not want a direct involvment if china went to war with the US, but the good ol FSB would still find a way of supplying a few newly scrapped russian tanks and guns

I don't think the Russians would do anything other than give Beijing diplomatic support - and that would be if it wasn't the aggressor. Russia and China may have an "understanding" at the moment, but it isn't an alliance - it's convenient co-operation. When the chips were really down, Moscow would leave Beijing to get on with it. Why? Because:

a) It wouldn't want to make itself into a target.
b) It doesn't need Chinese arms sales to keep its economy going.
c) It would have more to lose by European and countries switching energy suppliers. That's one reason why the Ukrainians were given a gas deal - Europe started to talk about getting liquified gas shipped in from elsewhere.
d) A weakened China would be less of a threat to Russia in the long-run. They might also want some more Russian weapons to re-build their military.

Chinese often mistake Russia as their UK to the USA. In reality they're just as self-centred/interested as the Chinese are, so if China embarks on a major military offensive it will probably find itself without any real backers.