China's military power

[kams]

What kind of conflict scenario you guys are envisaging?

1. Local conflict leading to international intervention (read China vs US in case Taiwan formally declares independence, surprise element is with Taiwan/US)
2. Local conflict, China annexes Taiwan (surprise element is with China)
3. A Global conflict involving Sino-Russian alliance vs Taiwan/US/Japan. If you want to muddy the water more, say commies get majority in Indian Parliament and throw their weight with Sino-Russian alliance. (We do have elected commies in two states and they take their orders from Mao - directly from heaven )

Scenario 1 and 2 are more likely, while 3 is bit far fetched.

 

[Rich]

The short story is that the German navy was de facto cut off in the North Sea for both WWs.

The same applies to China.



Huh?

Interesting point. Most of all in that it highlights the rather limited basing of the Chinese Navy but also the centralization of command and control. Things improved for the Germans in WW-ll after France was taken and submarines were able to be based in the west of that country. Even so The bay of Biscayne was a choke point Germans boats had a heck of a time with until schnorkel arrived.

The Chinese have all their eggs in very few baskets as well. All of them being in major mainland ports that could become rather hot, rather fast. In a shooting war there is no doubt in my mind we would strike them hard and fast where they drop anchor and hang their hats. Perched at Anderson air base in Guam and Diego Garcia would be enough Yank bombers to make them uncomfortable. I dont know what kind of boat water is in the south China sea but China would certainly have to contend with a very large projection of Yank SSN's. Many of them extremely capable boats. While we dont have the bases available as we did during the cold war the USN in the pacific is certainly better dispersed and more nimble then the Chinese could ever hope to be.

On the map I see choke points that can easily be mined and good boat water ranging up and down the Java trench. The presence of a dozen Yank SSNs could enforce a embargo on China without firing a shot. Chinese bullying for off-shore resources will leave them with fewer regional friends and will leave us with more diplomatic avenues that could strengthen the policy of containment.

Was it Clancy who wrote the book detailing the USS Cheyenne SSN in just such a war? I forget and its been a long time since I read it. But I remember being concerned over the to few logistical support assets we have to support our warships at sea. Is this our "weak link"?

I don't think the Russians would do anything other than give Beijing diplomatic support - and that would be if it wasn't the aggressor. Russia and China may have an "understanding" at the moment, but it isn't an alliance - it's convenient co-operation. When the chips were really down, Moscow would leave Beijing to get on with it. Why?

Right now Russia is a mess. Economically, militarily, domestically, everywhichway'ally. The only thing floating them is high oil prices and now that they are crashing the Russians will be evern worse off. Their once proud military is a shambles. I agree with this assessment, that the Russians will have no patience with any Chinese "big adventures".

 

[abramsteve]

Once AN/SPY-3 is introduced into the fleet, along with the point defense lasers scheduled on the second refit of the Zumwalts I think we can call their AShMs obsolete.

I didnt think of that! As a serious, although off topic, question, what type of weapons would be needed to defeat these systems? More powerful jaming capabilities? How about the old 'polish the missile to make the laser reflect' technique I heard once?

Could it mean the return of the dumb iron bomb?

 

[tomahawk6]

Clearly the PRC is building a capability to attempt an invasion of Taiwan and to be a regional player. I dont see an invasion scenario for 6-8 years at least.
Even then they wouldnt strike until there was a democrat in the White House.
All the US would need to do to thwart an invasion would be to deploy SSN's and Burke class DDG's/CG's along with a couple of carriers a few hundred miles south of Taiwan. In fact we might be able to do it with SSN's only. The surface forces would provide an ABM umbrella for Taiwan.

 

[Big-E]

I didnt think of that! As a serious, although off topic, question, what type of weapons would be needed to defeat these systems? More powerful jaming capabilities? How about the old 'polish the missile to make the laser reflect' technique I heard once?

Could it mean the return of the dumb iron bomb?

The only way would be to place a torpedo under the hull of Zumwalt.

 

[Grand Danois]

The only way would be to place a torpedo under the hull of Zumwalt.

Or another laserequipped Zumwalt! Then they could duke it out with lasers. Zzzaaap!

Wakka Wakka!

 

[Big-E]

Or another laserequipped Zumwalt! Then they could duke it out with lasers. Zzzaaap!

Wakka Wakka!

LOL, it would take an hour just to burn a hole thru the hull and then they would have to be stationary. :lam

 

[dioditto]

Is Ice Lord and DioDitto the same person here? Or does Dio just enjoy talking to himself? I went thru all my posts, and while I do like to defend my position energetically, I saw no post insulting enough to be called a "blabber'er" by an apparent insulting nit-wit .

Wow, that's reallll gentlemanly. Not to mention non-insulting. I wonder why the mod isn't kick banning your immature ass, for breaking the forum rules first.

 

[dioditto]

I usually stay away from these sorts of arguments because they degenerate into "mine's better than yours" but I'll add one comment here.

The USA is doing anything but standing still in terms of military capability. China has SO far to go to generate the kind of capability the US can NOW that it's not funny.

Do you honestly think 9 - 14 years is sufficient to bridge that gap? I don't, particularly when you see that China is still trying to introduce an indigenous fighter such as the J-10 which has yet to equal let alone generate more capability than the latest examples of the F-16 family.

By the time they get the J-10 into service the F-35 family will be entering service amongst it's respective users. There's an entire generation of difference between the 2 (irregardless of your personal definition of the term "generation" ) ...

To sum up, China is rapidly developing a great military capability, not only quantitatively but also qualitatively, however China remains a LONG way behind the US and there is little evidence (that I have seen) to show they are bridging that gap...

I agree with AussieDigger's assessment on Chinese military production capability. So far, for the J-10, they have only designed the airframe (even that's debatable) and few electronics for it (most are just acquired from abroad). The chinese still relies on the russians to supply them the engines (AL-31FN) for the J-10. If they are REALLY bridging the gap, I would atleast expect them to INDIGENOUSLY DESIGN and MANUFACTURE the engine; and they have yet to be able to do that.


Until they have actually able to design the whole aircraft all by themself and validate, assess and make several more generations of it to eventually match the level of US previous generation aircraft, I wouldn't worry too much. To sum it up, I think they are still generations behind, their aviational industry is still in infancy compare to the west, they have yet to make ONE aircraft that's really from nut to bolt all indigenously designed.


[EDIT]: I just found on the net that they did indigenously designed their own jet engine... FOR THE FIRST TIME back in 2002!

http://english.people.com.cn/200205/31/eng20020531_96870.shtml

So, like I stated before, I think they still have a loong long long way to go.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Some of you are getting unnecessarily "antsy" with each other.

Please "play the ball and not the man....."

 

[dioditto]

But outside that zone of denial the PRC will have to meet opponent symmetrically. That means CBG's and SSN's, strategic bombing capability, basing, etc..

So "zone of denial" capability is only useful in an invasion of Taiwan situation.

They practically can't break out, just like the Kriegsmarine or Hochseeflotte...

Currently, yes, I agree with that assessment, but, what if the denial zone is extended far far FAR larger in the near future? I just think that the technology is advancing far more "smoothly" (and economically - eg. cheaper) for asymetrical warefare than to protect a fleet of precious CVG....(not to mention the time and money goes into equip, train, and develop new protection system or strategy for the ENTIRE FLEET )

 

[Waylander]

The problem of the USN is if they want to see one of their LA class SSN to be sunk. This is not a must but it is a could be.
If the PROC is trying to attack and invase Taiwan there would be enough SSKs in the street and enough possible golden shots.
That is the whole question. There is no doubt that the USN is able to sink every chinese vessel but are the US willing to sacrifice the lifes of their seaman?

 

[Big-E]

There is no doubt that the USN is able to sink every chinese vessel but are the US willing to sacrifice the lifes of their seaman?

If PROC invades ROC then it's on. No question we're ready to die.

 

[Waylander]

I for sure believe that the soldiers are ready to die.
But does the government want them to die for Taiwan?

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I for sure believe that the soldiers are ready to die.
But does the government want them to die for Taiwan?

They want them to die for Afghanistan, Iraq, etc. So of course they would want them to die for a strategic ally facing off against a long-term rival.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Clearly the PRC is building a capability to attempt an invasion of Taiwan and to be a regional player. I dont see an invasion scenario for 6-8 years at least.

Even then they wouldnt strike until there was a democrat in the White House.

You do realise that it was Bill Clinton that sent the USN into the Taiwanese straits in the 90s. He also authorised a bunch of arms sales to the island, including better tanks, while Bush Senior had delayed constantly over F-16 sales.

A Democrat would probably want to protect Taiwan just as much as a Republican. In reality it would all be down to personality - it might be that a certain Republican would put self-interest over obligation to Taiwan, whereas a Democrat might be like Clinton.

 

[aaaditya]

there are three points i would like to discuss:

1)the only effective detterence which taiwan lacks against china are nuclear tipped ballistic and cruise missile.china would think twice before any invasion of taiwan particularly if taiwan can target important coastal and interior chinese cities.and i also believe that the taiwanese realise this and are slowly working towards developing this capability.

2)i dont think a sino-taiwan war would be limited only to china and taiwan ,but would spread to the entire region with china and northkorea on one side and taiwan,japan,south korea and philipines on the other side.

3)a sino-taiwan war would just be a much needed execuse for us involvement ,in reality a sino-taiwan war would be a war between usa and china.and us involvement would be the decisive factor.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

the only effective detterence which taiwan lacks against china are nuclear tipped ballistic and cruise missile.china would think twice before any invasion of taiwan particularly if taiwan can target important coastal and interior chinese cities.and i also believe that the taiwanese realise this and are slowly working towards developing this capability.

Nuclear missiles would be a bad idea, because it would lead to US support crumbling and China probably invading.

However, the HF-IIE project (cruise missiles) is apparently nearing completion, with production supposedly already having started. They might disuade China from being tempted to invade, but not if they were really serious about it. I mean, this is China we're talking about - life is cheap to the leadership. A few dozen cruise missiles hitting Shanghai wouldn't change their minds. Indeed it might please them if that happened, by increasing public support for the war and Taiwan wasting precious resources against civilian targets.

What the missiles would be used for is attacking military facilities like airbases, ports or missile batteries. Though I suppose I could see a crafty Taiwanese leader having a few attack cities to try to piss the Chinese off by wasting their missiles on urban areas.

 

[icelord]

I for sure believe that the soldiers are ready to die.
But does the government want them to die for Taiwan?

Does the government want them to die for America instead, how about the UN, what are you truely asking, if anything, they should'nt be dying, their enemies should.

"Don't die for your country, make the other poor bastard die for his"
Patton(edit)

 

[Grand Danois]

Does the government want them to die for America instead, how about the UN, what are you truely asking, if anything, they should'nt be dying, their enemies should.

"Don't die for your country, make the other poor bastard die for his"
Churchill

Always thought that was a Patton quote...

No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country.

George S. Patton

But this is actually the answer to those who suggest that considering the life of the citizens and soldiers of ones nation cheap is an advantage.

It isn't if you're exchanging blood for steel, like in Korea.

The same applies to the concept that "we love death more than you love life" is any advantage. It isn't when your need is being accomodated.

The realm of such concepts is in info warfare rather than physical battlefields.