While I'm certainly not advocating that PLAN will match the US in technology 20 years from now, but they will be equal to us today by then. The future USN will still be more advanced, but will be much smaller by 2025. I don't like having to rely on LCS to be considered a major surface combatent to reach fleet levels. Our DDG-1000s and CG(X)s will be so expensive only a very limited number will be produced. The ABs are going to be extended to their very limits. The Virginia procurement schedule isn't near enough to fullfill our worldwide obligations. The war in Iraq is wasting much needed procurement funds. I still don't think PLAN would be a match, I didn't say that to begin with. My only advocacy was that she will have carriers by 2020-25, not be equal to the USN.
China's military power
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The Japanese started building a navy from scratch in 1855. Compared to the West, they were then far, far more backward than China is now, & (unlike China) dirt poor, technologically a couple of centuries behind, & with absolutely no ability to build ships of any kind except vessels which Drake & Howard could have thrashed with ease. Originally coast defence only, & neglected for a while because of lack of resources & the need to defeat rebellions. They didn't start building up the navy seriously until the 1880s.Rich said:
In naval terms, China now is more like Japan in the 1890s than Japan in 1855, They've had several years of expanding from the coast defence force they've operated for a few decades, they have a core of experience & knowledge of relatively modern equipment, & they're building their own ships.
We all know what happened next.
Now consider that China has immensely more resources, both in absolute terms & relative to possible adversaries, than Japan had back then.
Yes, they got slaughtered! Their entire navy sent to the bottom of the sea. Everything in their game plan was basically flawed, minus a few capable Admirals. The WW-ll naval war in the Pacific was for all intents and purposes over the day it started. The Japanese never had any hope of winning it. At best, if they better executed their original attack, they could have hoped for an eventual peace with acceptable gains. But lets face it, no matter what happened on 7 Dec. 1941, if the American nation wished to prosecute the war with Japan no matter what, the destruction of Japans navy would have been academic. It just "might" have taken longer had the Japs knocked out a carrier or two, and maybe other critical targets at Pearl they overlooked.
Thats what happens when take on an enemy that is far out of your class. With an industrial/technological/economic base thats far superior. China has many achilles heels as well. Ones that we dont! Everything from poor domestic food production, poor energy output, zillions of illiterate migrants, many left over dead weight industries....I could go on and on. Probably the biggest one however is , like Japan 60 years ago, the Chinese are heavily reliant on imports of energy and raw materials. Much of it by the sea. A sea that is an American Lake.
But they probably do have military planners who are smart enough not to think the WW-ll Japanese had a naval game plan worth emulating. If anything it should be considered a model on what not to do. Remember we destroyed their entire navy.
Its brilliant how you blabber on about sea warfare doctrine and how china has none, but the amazing thing is, china did create the land warfare doctrine hundreds of years ago,and its still standard tactics in most modern armies. If anything, you've learnt all your traditions and statergy from a little chinese bloke named Sun Tzu
I'm sure they can create a sea doctrine, hell, you could probabley go to a street in beijing and get the USN, UK, and NATO copy for the same price as a a 30pk of coke here. Just because they don't go blowing their tops every couple of months on an excercise here and there, doesn't mean out of a billion ppl, no one is thinking up ways to counter the USN, much like the US Navy has ppl countering the ever increasing Chinese Navy. And some historians believe china did descover more of the world then the Vikings ever got near, so odds on they were sailing long before anyone else.
A Chinese carrier is a definate, you don't go buying foreign countries Ex-carriers just to keep the world guessing. And if the Sh*t hit the fan, i'm sure chinas work force could build hundreds of the bloody things, any country at war that devotes a massive part of its resources to the military increases output for whatever is needed. Strict pilot training, focused building and a large number of resources could see more then 10 built in a year, and i'm not kidding here, hell South Korea has a ship yard which launches 100,000 ton Tankers everyday, because its that well structured to accomadate such building, china could have the same if tensions got to boiling point, no matter who with, being US or Japan.It has the capabilities to over run much of the worlds military ability. If enough people and resources were dedictated to it, china could have a large self sufficent miltary industry, at the moment it relies on others, but many others rely on china for their parts to go with the Vehicles or Aircraft.
People go on about chinas economy falling, i doubt that, if it went to war with Japan it would fall, its imports would of course increase, exports might drop<sorry, no toys with your happy meal> but its workforce would increase, and more jobs would be created to aid the war effort, again we're talking about a billion people here, this is no minor country, this is a massive future superpower.
Don't underestimate the chinese, it could be fatal someday
You haven't got the point, have you? With an economy a fraction of the size of the USAs, Japan took 4 years of hard fighting to beat, & it was done by building a fleet & air forces far larger than they could match. Long before that, they sank a Russian fleet (those oh-so-much-more-capable-than-the-Chinese Russians . . . ).Rich said:
China now has an economy much, much larger compared to that of the USA than Japans has ever been, let alone in 1941. Its industrial base is much closer to that of the USA than Japans has ever been. Unless you're close to the grave, one of us has an accident, or something very unexpected happens, we'll both live to see the Chinese economy become the largest in the world, manufacturing more of just about everything than the USA. How then do you produce the huge material overmatch which defeated Japan?
What you say about Chinese abilities reminds me very much of what was said about Japanese before December 1941. They were underestimated, & for the same reasons.
The Pacific may be an American lake now, but what about when China is richer than the USA, & with a larger navy? And what would the USA do if its energy imports were interdicted?
WASHINGTON -- China is "almost certain" to become a superpower this century and could emerge as a threat to the United States, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said.
( and you think a superpower wont be able to match US ?? )
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/8/29/61714.shtml
When China awakes, it will shake the world.
- Napoleon Bonaparte
Once China becomes strong enough to stand alone, it might discard us. A little later it might even turn against us, if its perception of its interests requires it.
- Henry Kissinger
We should not underestimate China's ability to disrupt our interests around the world if our relationship becomes belligerent rather than cooperative.
- Richard M. Nixon
(Mr. Big-E your perception is better than these guys ?? huh )
Here are the links
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/0046.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower
Well wakeup dude face the reality the way China moveing it won’t be long when she will be the SuperPower and i think everyone here knows how strong a SP can be ( do visit the links )
( and you think a superpower wont be able to match US ?? )
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2001/8/29/61714.shtml
When China awakes, it will shake the world.
- Napoleon Bonaparte
Once China becomes strong enough to stand alone, it might discard us. A little later it might even turn against us, if its perception of its interests requires it.
- Henry Kissinger
We should not underestimate China's ability to disrupt our interests around the world if our relationship becomes belligerent rather than cooperative.
- Richard M. Nixon
(Mr. Big-E your perception is better than these guys ?? huh )
Here are the links
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/0046.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superpower
Well wakeup dude face the reality the way China moveing it won’t be long when she will be the SuperPower and i think everyone here knows how strong a SP can be ( do visit the links )
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Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2006
Some of you may be intrested in knowing what Pentagon thinks of PRC military power. Here is a link
Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2006
As per the report China is likely to have a Carrier b/w 2015 and 2020.
There is lots of information in that report. Interesting read.
Some of you may be intrested in knowing what Pentagon thinks of PRC military power. Here is a link
Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2006
As per the report China is likely to have a Carrier b/w 2015 and 2020.
There is lots of information in that report. Interesting read.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
That was not exactly what I meant.Big-E said:
Defense R&D is synergetic and symbiotic with the civilian sector and is usually a good indicator of the technological expertise in the defense sector. So all the stories of great and secret technologies being developed, basically run contrary to what is the ecology of the current Chinese technological level.
No, stories of secrets labs with secret technologies and designs that are lightyears ahead of everyone else and will put the order of the world on its head, doesn't have much impact on me.
There is also the issue of China only recently being industrialised, and thus does not possess a complete and balanced portfolio of industry and expertise. They currently lack the deep infrastructure of nations that has been industrialised for generations.
If you take the Pentagon report posted by kams you get a picture, which coincides with mine, of the current technological ability and industrial base.
Sure, economics count. But they are still pure numbers if the ability is absent.
Rich said:
Damn dude, reading upto this point you sounded like a very obnoxious typical american teenager on an ultra-right wing bent. And what you are talking about may hold true in conventional sense, but we are in year 2006... thinking having a CVG fleets and the world's ocean is anything but an american lake is a wishful thinking.
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