China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[ngatimozart]

I've copied the above two posts, # 59 & #60, over from the New Coronoa Virus thread because they pertain to the discussion here as well.

Another article in Foreign Policy, How Do You Keep China's Economy Running with 750 Million in Quarantine?, that covers the impact this viral epidemic is having on the PRC and on the regime. The author argues that this is the biggest health crisis to hit China since 1949 and she asks the question:

"The big question is whether grassroots Chinese believe the regime is still keeping its side of the grand bargain that has prevailed since Deng Xiaoping’s post-Mao reforms. It went like this: So long as the Chinese Communist Party allowed citizens more economic freedom and rising standards of living—and for some, the dream of getting rich—in return, the people would not rebel en masse against heavy-handed social and political controls. If that bargain breaks down, Xi’s team is in trouble because ever since Mao’s time this deal has been the foundation of the party’s mandate to rule."​

I think the jury is out, but there is no denying that there is anger amongst the people about the handling of this crisis and anger greater than previous post Mao crises such as the SARS epidemic or the melamine in baby milk powder scandal, How Do You Keep China's Economy Running with 750 Million in Quarantine?. If the general poplace decided that Xi and the CCP have lost the Mandate of Heaven, nothing that Xi & the CCP dynasty can or will do, will prevent the people from overthrowing and replacing the regime. It may take time and cost a lot of blood, but it will happen. Chinese history is replete with examples of Imperial dynasties losing the Mandate of Heaven and being overthrown and replaced.

 

[OPSSG]

During a meeting with Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said he hopes the Special ASEAN-China Foreign Ministers' Meeting on Coronavirus Disease, held on 20 Feb 2020, will not only explore on ways to cope with the epidemic, but also push forward the cooperation on public health — at moments like this, China appreciates the existence of ASEAN, that it can provide a forum for Beijing to share it’s point of view and actions to remedy the virus crisis, to other regional decision makers.

• Wang Yi thanked the support Singapore has provided to China in fighting the disease which once again embodies the excellent tradition between the two countries of always supporting and helping each other in difficult times. China is ready to maintain high-level exchanges with Singapore and hopes that Singapore will play a positive role in enhancing the complementarity between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity and signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreemen (RCEP) as scheduled. As this year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of Singapore-China diplomatic relations between the two countries, Singapore looks forward to further promoting close high-level exchanges with China and steadily advancing the development of the "New Land-Sea Corridor." Singapore is ready to continue to pushing for signing the RCEP agreement and take an active part in BRI cooperation.

• In letters sent to China's President Xi Jinping on 24 Feb 2020, both Singapore’s President and PM lauded efforts taken by China and offered their condolences for the lives lost to the virus. PM Lee Hsien Loong highlighted Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat's and China's Vice-Premier Han Zheng's agreement to discuss cooperation in the management of public health crises at the Joint Council for Bilateral Cooperation (JCBC). He said Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan had shared some of Singapore's ideas with China's State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi when they met in Laos, and that officials from both countries can discuss it further. The 15th edition of the JCBC was held in Chongqing in Oct 2019, and Singapore is slated to host the next one.
  
  
• Singapore responded to China's early request for personal protective equipment, medical supplies and diagnostic test kits and dispatched a second round of humanitarian aid, including medical supplies, to China on 19 Feb 2020. Singapore’s ambassador to China Lui Tuck Yew handed over the country's humanitarian assistance to People's Liberation Army General Hospital Medical Service Department deputy head Zhang Fu in Beijing. The assistance was to help communities severely affected by the coronavirus outbreak in China, and help efforts to contain the virus, said Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

• In addition, the Singapore Red Cross said it sent on 19 Feb 2020, S$2.26 million worth of aid to China as part of the first phase of its relief efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak in the country. The amount will go to, among other things, buying and distributing supplies like masks, medical equipment and hygiene items. This comes from more than S$6 million in donations it raised towards these efforts in Singapore. The charity launched its public appeal for funds to aid those in China affected by the outbreak on 4 Feb 2020, with the Singapore Government on the same day contributing S$1 million to kick-start fund-raising efforts. Organisations such as OCBC bank and Business China have donated to the cause.

I've copied the above two posts, # 59 & #60, over from the New Coronoa Virus thread because they pertain to the discussion here as well.

Another article in Foreign Policy, How Do You Keep China's Economy Running with 750 Million in Quarantine?, that covers the impact this viral epidemic is having on the PRC and on the regime. The author argues that this is the biggest health crisis to hit China since 1949....

If the general poplace decided that Xi and the CCP have lost the Mandate of Heaven, nothing that Xi & the CCP dynasty can or will do, will prevent the people from overthrowing and replacing the regime. It may take time and cost a lot of blood, but it will happen. Chinese history is replete with examples of Imperial dynasties losing the Mandate of Heaven and being overthrown and replaced.

Crisis builds character (where the Wuhan residents are shouting encouragement and singing songs from their apartment windows at night, in an effort to boost each other's morale) and the CCP has done enough to be seen as being part of the solution, this time around. In the long sweep of Chinese history, the times of maximum danger for ruling dynasties were when periods of internal uncertainty coincided with those of external uncertainty — while there is a trade dispute with the US, China is not at war with any country. IMHO, the dynastic periods, and the Waring Kingdom periods, it was a choice of this king or that king. But there is no alternative to the CCP.

Even with mis-steps, in my opinion, Xi can get a higher approval rating in China (than Trump can hope to get in the US). I was just in China last year and had been taken out to dinner and drinks that resulted in many candid moments by kind and helpful hosts — the local concerns about Xi, that my hosts share with me, are not easily understood, by outsiders like me. Most China experts based abroad tend to mis-read the context of domestic criticism of Xi — the party is deeply engrained in Chinese society — when a threat arises, the natural tendency is to rally around the CCP. I could be wrong, but I think that CCP will not simply fall over, due some mis-steps at the start of the outbreak of this virus — they are no where near the tipping point. I would like to add a disclaimer, just because I speak Chinese, it does not make me a China expert. I am just a layman with a point of view. Do take my views here with a pinch of salt.

 

[John Fedup]

Should this crisis worsen it is unlikely the CCP will be vulnerable short of a catastrophic death toll. The senior party leaders would probably make Xi the sacrificial lamb to ensure survival but I guess Xi’s power and control makes this solution difficult.

 

[ASSAIL]

Should this crisis worsen it is unlikely the CCP will be vulnerable short of a catastrophic death toll. The senior party leaders would probably make Xi the sacrificial lamb to ensure survival but I guess Xi’s power and control makes this solution difficult.

Yes the Coronavirus outbreak is severe and is causing disruption to China’s trade with the world which spooks the worlds financial markets and causes geopolitical speculation but...
The annual influenza epidemic infects more, kills more and spreads wider.
Why doesn’t this generate the same hysteria?
5 Million Cases Worldwide, 650,000 Deaths Annually: The Seasonal Flu Virus is a "Serious Concern", But the Wuhan Coronavirus Grabs the Headlines - Global Research

 

[John Fedup]

Yes the Coronavirus outbreak is severe and is causing disruption to China’s trade with the world which spooks the worlds financial markets and causes geopolitical speculation but...
The annual influenza epidemic infects more, kills more and spreads wider.
Why doesn’t this generate the same hysteria?
5 Million Cases Worldwide, 650,000 Deaths Annually: The Seasonal Flu Virus is a "Serious Concern", But the Wuhan Coronavirus Grabs the Headlines - Global Research

All true, BUT, flu vaccines are produced each year. Should Covid-19 prove to be just as dangerous and persist with annual mutations it will be a long time before effective vaccines can be developed. The biggest concern is China’s lack of transparency, it is uncertain how dangerous this virus is.

 

[swerve]

Yes the Coronavirus outbreak is severe and is causing disruption to China’s trade with the world which spooks the worlds financial markets and causes geopolitical speculation but...
The annual influenza epidemic infects more, kills more and spreads wider.
Why doesn’t this generate the same hysteria?
5 Million Cases Worldwide, 650,000 Deaths Annually: The Seasonal Flu Virus is a "Serious Concern", But the Wuhan Coronavirus Grabs the Headlines - Global Research

Globalresearch isn't exactly a credible source, as you can tell from that headline. It suggests a death rate from flu of 13% - 650,000 dead from only 5 million cases, misquoting its source. That's actually up to 650,000 deaths worldwide from respiratory diseases linked to flu, the top end of a 2017 estimated range from 290,000 up, out of 3 to 5 million severe cases, from a total of several hundred million cases. The USA alone is estimated to have tens of millions of cases of flu each year, & a death rate of about one in a thousand, or 2 per thousand of those who seek medical help. Most (67% in the most recent large study I've seen, from 2019) are of people aged 65 or older.

So far, almost 10% of the people identified as catching Covid-19 have died. That probably exaggerates the death rate considerably, but it seems to be accepted by just about everyone in the field that the death rate among those who catch it is much higher than for flu. Well, unless we get another 1918-type variety of flu. That's what's scary about Covid-19: the ratio of deaths to infections.

And so on . . .

Globalresearch is an anti-US, anti-NATO, anti-west propaganda site. Dunno where it gets its funding from, but it seems to like Putin.

 

[ASSAIL]

Globalresearch isn't exactly a credible source.
Globalresearch is an anti-US, anti-NATO, anti-west propaganda site. Dunno where it gets its funding from, but it seems to like Putin.

Thanks for the heads up.

 

[John Fedup]

Globalresearch isn't exactly a credible source, as you can tell from that headline. It suggests a death rate from flu of 13% - 650,000 dead from only 5 million cases, misquoting its source. That's actually up to 650,000 deaths worldwide from respiratory diseases linked to flu, the top end of a 2017 estimated range from 290,000 up, out of 3 to 5 million severe cases, from a total of several hundred million cases. The USA alone is estimated to have tens of millions of cases of flu each year, & a death rate of about one in a thousand, or 2 per thousand of those who seek medical help. Most (67% in the most recent large study I've seen, from 2019) are of people aged 65 or older.

So far, almost 10% of the people identified as catching Covid-19 have died. That probably exaggerates the death rate considerably, but it seems to be accepted by just about everyone in the field that the death rate among those who catch it is much higher than for flu. Well, unless we get another 1918-type variety of flu. That's what's scary about Covid-19: the ratio of deaths to infections.

And so on . . .

Globalresearch is an anti-US, anti-NATO, anti-west propaganda site. Dunno where it gets its funding from, but it seems to like Putin.

The big question about death rate from Covid-19 is the death rate per number of infections. Actually this will be known eventually albeit probably not from the Chinese. The rate will likely be different around the world depending on health care capability.

 

[Todjaeger]

The big question about death rate from Covid-19 is the death rate per number of infections. Actually this will be known eventually albeit probably not from the Chinese. The rate will likely be different around the world depending on health care capability.

I expect that the mortality rate for the COVID-19 coronavirus is actually a bit less than what is currently being reported, but I also doubt that the 'actual' number of cases as well as the % of deaths, to ever really be known.

Part of the issue is that the symptoms of the coronavirus are quite similar to flu virus symptoms so there is a very real chance that there are or were more people who had the coronavirus at one point, but thought it was a flu illness.

Another thing worth noting is that as of yesterday, it appears that there have been more than 80,000 cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus worldwide, with about 2,700 deaths, which works out to a mortality rate of just over 3%, for the known cases of the virus. That puts the mortality rate in the same range as the 1918/Spanish flu pandemic.

Much like then, there will likely be large variances in infection rates between countries, as well as in different areas within the same country, and of course further variations in the mortality rate. These variations could be due to natural immunity certain segments of a population might, as well as access to healthcare, good nutrition, hygiene, and of course the density of people within an area.

 

[ngatimozart]

Well it looks like the Coronavirus crisis has shown up the PLA's ineptness at delivering HADR domestically during an epidemic China’s Military Can't Deliver on Humanitarian Promises. The real problem looking in from the outside, is determining whether the cause is because of the PLA's own ineptness; or because of the ineptness of the national leadership at the highest political level, meaning the Politburo Standing Committee and the Central Military Commission, both chaired by Xi Jinping. Whatever the cause it definitely isn't a good look for the PLA and the party with the population, and despite the crack down on communications etc., word will get around. People are really angry at the moment and it remains to be seen what will happen in the near future. I don't believe that there is any chance of the CCP being overthrown, but Xi Jinping's survival as emperor might be somewhat shakier than it was prior to Xmas. He's made a quite few enemies along the way, but whether he's managed to purge, imprison, internally exile & shoot enough of them remains to be seen.

 

[ngatimozart]

The PRC has gone all out blaming the USA for the corona virus crisis in China Beijing Knows Who to Blame for the Virus: America, which doesn't really surprise me. A book has just been released: "A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020 compiles numerous state media accounts on the heroic leadership of President Xi Jinping, the vital role of the Communist Party, and the superiority of the Chinese system in fighting the virus." Of course it'll go to #2 of the best seller list in PRC book shops, behind the #1 book: The Thoughts and Teachings of Chairman Xi. This of course distracts from the incompetence of the Party and state officials at the beginning and during the crisis, AND reflects anger away from the Party towards a foreign devil govt.

At the same time the Party is using companies like Alibaba to increase their surveillance and oppression of the population. In this case using an Alibaba app used to pay for goods bought online or from their stores, in order to determine a residents approved residence / location by their health status as recorded by the app In Coronavirus Fight, China Gives Citizens a Color Code, With Red Flags. So at train stations, police check points, airports, entering public and residential buildings etc., you must show your colour coded alipay app in order to proceed. George Orwell didn't have this technology in mind when he wrote 1984. Once this is in use the Party will not withdraw it and it and other commercial companies apps will be coopted by the Party to increasingly monitor the population.

 

[John Fedup]

This link is a report on 5 eyes dependence on China for imports on critical items. COVID-19 has been a wake-up call wrt PPE. China’s lack of transparency wrt COVID-19, actions in the SCS, Hong Kong, and other stuff should certainly start some action on this dependence.

Breaking the China Supply Chain: How the 'Five Eyes' can Decouple from Strategic Dependency - Henry Jackson Society

MEMBERS of the Five Eyes are dependent on China for 831 separate categories of imports – of which 260 service elements of critical national infrastructure (CNI) – according to a think tank report released today. The report, published by the Henry Jackson Society, says these categories of goods...

henryjacksonsociety.org

 

[John Fedup]

Huawei’s CFO, daughter of the company’s founder, has had a court decision go a against her that now allows her to be extradited from Canada to the US to face charges there. I guess Huawei’s 5G technology might not be coming to Canada.https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/meng-wanzhou-extradition-decision-1.5585737

 

[ngatimozart]

There will be significant yowling from Beijing now with cries of injustice and unfair treatment. Beijing will also push back as well, so don't be surprised if Canadian goods are held up at the border for various checks and fail various tests because of paperwork errors. Also I wouldn't be surprised if those 2 Canadians held in custody accused of espionage are found guilty and given long sentences, plus they may be joined by others.

 

[Hone C]

Yes, the howls of indignation and outrage didn't take long in coming, along with the usual threats.

Ruling on Meng shows Canada lost judicial, diplomatic independence to US bullying: experts - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

Pressure is also building in the US over China's Uygur detentions. Another round of hostile diplomacy coming.

US House passes Uygur Human Rights Policy Act

The legislation calls for sanctions against Chinese officials that would see their US-held assets frozen and entry to the US barred.

amp.scmp.com

 

[OPSSG]

A general warning to all and directed to no one in particular — to stay on-topic.

1. If this discussion thread is to continue, there has to be a serious attempt to relate all future posts here to military developments in China or security concerns related to China in the Indo-Pacific region.​

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2. We want to encourage participation that fosters learning. Kindly consider providing some defence related content — otherwise the thread becomes all about politics and that is against forum rules. ​

​

3. Posting without any background reading that reflects the complex Sino-American relationship also lowers the quality of the geo-political discussion and makes the thread boring.​

​

4. Being a defence forum, DT is only interested in impact of events when it affects defence, including increased geopolitical and military competition (or military cooperation, as the case maybe). We expect that some of these changes may result in an action-reaction dynamics or even an arms race in the Indo-Pacific. These changes can impact defence procurement or even result in greater investment in defence facilities — which would then make them relevant to the discussion.​

​

5. Please also keep in mind that from the other perspective — China has interests that it cannot ignore in managing its external military-to-military relations. So objectivity and the ability to see another party’s concerns would be hallmarks of a good discussion.​

6. We take this opportunity to thank all who shared links, to further discussion.​

 

[Blackshoe]

I only just now discovered this, but apparently China and India have been skirmishing this month up in the Roof of the World.

Tensions between China and India over their Himalayan border have escalated, with China accused of moving thousands of troops into disputed territory and expanding a military airbase in the region.

Thousands of Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops are reported to have moved into sensitive areas along the eastern Ladakh border, setting up tents and stationing vehicles and heavy machinery in what India considers to be its territory.

In response, the Indian army has moved several battalions from an infantry division usually based in the Ladakh city of Leh to “operational alert areas” along the border, and reinforcement troops have been brought in.

The aggressive military posturing follows two skirmishes between the two sides on 5 and 9 May in the contested areas around Pangong Lake and North Sikkim, in which more than 100 soldiers from both sides were injured.

Like lots of other things China has done lately since the Coronavirus, it feels very much way too aggressive for what the PRC normally does, which makes me wonder how badly COVID shook the CPC's belief in their ability to control things.

 

[ngatimozart]

I only just now discovered this, but apparently China and India have been skirmishing this month up in the Roof of the World.



Like lots of other things China has done lately since the Coronavirus, it feels very much way too aggressive for what the PRC normally does, which makes me wonder how badly COVID shook the CPC's belief in their ability to control things.

It may have shaken the CCP's belief in its ability to control the narrative and situation, but not for long. They do have a mantra of never letting a good crisis go to waste, so they'll eke this one out as much as they can, and then some.

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting old case law was the basis for allowing the eradication of Huawei’s CFO to the US from BC.https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...u-george-collins-double-criminality-1.5590693

 

[Todjaeger]

Eradication? I think you mean extradition... That or there was significantly more going on than has made into the public domain...