China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[OPSSG]

A news article about the protests in Hong Kong. It is in Dutch, but there is also a video in it which shows the violence used by the police against the protesters.
Big chance that a part of the police in Hongkong are from outside that city, but with Hong Kong uniforms.
Lets hope for not even more violence, history shows that the Communist Party doesn't hesitate to use lethal force.
Protest legt luchthaven Hongkong plat, vluchten geannuleerd

Thanks for sharing. Chen Daoxiang, the commander of China’s military garrison in Hong Kong — which holds around 6,000 troops — said his forces were “determined to protect national sovereignty, security, stability and the prosperity of Hong Kong.” His remarks came as China released a new propaganda video which include armed forces practicing shooting at protestors, after which he underscored his support for the city’s chief executive for “rigorously enforcing the law.” Beijing is paving the way to send its military into Hong Kong, a move that could launch a protracted fight. That’s not to say that this is imminent or will even happen, but it’s still a possibility

In addition, related to discussions on China:

(1) on 1 June 2019, the US DOD updated its "Indo-Pacific Strategy Report," which reflects the attention of the US to the Indian Ocean and South China Sea (see this DOD pdf). This IPSR paper will hopefully reduce the chance of miscalculation by one party. This 2019 Department of Defense Indo-Pacific Strategy Report (IPSR) affirms the enduring U.S. commitment to stability and prosperity in the region through the pursuit of preparedness, partnerships, and the promotion of a networked region.

(2) on 7 August 2019, Prof. Anthony H. Cordesman of CSIS published a comprehensive series of articles on China and the United States: Cooperation, Competition, and/or Conflict. The net assessment is divided into eight major sections, with links to 3 sections provided here:

• PART ONE: China's National Strategy provides summaries of China’s evolving strategy using direct quotes from its key white papers, particularly its 2019 Defense White Paper. It then provides similar excerpts from the new U.S. National Security and National Defense Strategies that the United States issued in 2017 and 2018, and from assessments of Chinese strategy by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, the Department of Defense, DIA, and INDOPACOM.
• PART SIX: China, the U.S., and Other Asian Powers — Competing Claims in Asia and the Pacific focuses on the competing Chinese and other country claims in the Western Pacific and the Chinese build-up of forces in the South China Sea that is a key U.S. strategic concern.
• 
  
• PART EIGHT: Chinese Force Development and Modernization examines the key force trend in each major aspect of Chinese force development. Once again, the quotes are provided from both Chinese White Papers and U.S. strategy documents and official assessments of China’s forces.

 

[John Fedup]

Another article concerning China and Hong Kong and the challenges for Xi and Trump. Xi may be under the impression that Tiananmen version 2.0 is ok. It might be in Trump's mind as well but such an event will be a game changer for the world and the US Congress will certainly find backbone finally to confront Trump should he try to ignore a violent confrontation in Hong Kong.


Trump’s Foreign-Policy Crisis Arrives

 

[ngatimozart]

Another article concerning China and Hong Kong and the challenges for Xi and Trump. Xi may be under the impression that Tiananmen version 2.0 is ok. It might be in Trump's mind as well but such an event will be a game changer for the world and the US Congress will certainly find backbone finally to confront Trump should he try to ignore a violent confrontation in Hong Kong.


Trump’s Foreign-Policy Crisis Arrives

This article argues that it's not going to be an if but a when the PAP (Peoples Armed Police) / PLA become involved. The CCP Politburo know their history and they will have closely looked at other communist govts and the results of challenges to their power. One of the basic tenants of marxism is the concept of historical dichotemy, and even though it applies to the workers and ownership of the means of production, it also applies to the retention of power and the subjucated population.

How Close Is Hong Kong to a Second Tiananmen?

 

[OPSSG]

On weekend of 18 August 2019, marked the 11th weekend in a row for the demonstrations. Pouring rain did not deter the peaceful protests, which caused roads to shut down and traffic to reroute as the park and streets flooded with people. Signs of 4 types of escalation to watch for that could trigger a response ordered by Beijing:

• Setting up of demonstrators’ camps near HK government or HK Police facilities, Chinese military, or party facilities
• Violence leading to the death of HK police, or undercover mainland agents or spies
• Clear evidence of foreign interference agents at work (eg. Taiwan)
• A declaration of HK independence

More importantly, the tone of the protests have changed on the ground; and external intervention will not occur if local authorities can keep a lid on violence and the protests do not contain the 4 above mentioned elements. IMO a violent crackdown on HK protesters is not in Beijing’s interests and it would influence the decisions of Western businesses that operate there. Some HK based firms are looking to relocate to Singapore, Taiwan or, ironically, Shenzhen. And Beijing is aware of all of these factors. See: Protests In Hong Kong Continue, Remain Peaceful Throughout The Weekend.

Hong Kong is a known conduit for China’s spies. For example, Captain Zhen Xiaojiang (鎮小江) was found guilty in 2015 of recruiting active and retired Taiwanese military officers to collect confidential information on China’s behalf. He was sentenced to four years in prison and reportedly released on 11 July 2018. Traveling on a tourist visa issued in HK, Zhen started frequent travels to Taiwan as long as ten years ago, reports said. On those trips, he contacted officers from Taiwan’s military in order to spy for him. His top recruit was retired Taiwanese Army Major-General Hsu Nai-chuan (許乃權), who was sentenced to two years and ten months in prison. See: Taiwan has deported Chinese spy to HK | Taiwan News

This article argues that it's not going to be an if but a when the PAP (Peoples Armed Police) / PLA become involved. The CCP Politburo know their history and they will have closely looked at other communist govts and the results of challenges to their power. One of the basic tenants of marxism is the concept of historical dichotemy, and even though it applies to the workers and ownership of the means of production, it also applies to the retention of power and the subjucated population.

How Close Is Hong Kong to a Second Tiananmen?

The likelihood of PLA or People's Armed Police Force intervention has been dramatically reduced due to new developments — there are other professional publications, who are astute China watchers that explain why that is the case in greater detail. No one else seems to mention this, but one of these factors is that Hong Kong’s richest man, Li Ka-shing, on 16 August 2019 issued front-page ads in several major local newspapers expressing sentiments in favour of love and against violence. And demonstrations over the weekend were teargas free and peaceful. Li issued two different ads in Chinese – both with very few words – without expressing any explicit support for the government or the protesters. In one ad, a stop sign was placed across the word “violence.”

“The best intentions can bring the worst results,” the ad said. “Cease the anger with love.” The ad spoke of six loves: “Love China, love Hong Kong, love oneself; love freedom, love empathy, love rule of law.”

A second ad cited a Chinese idiom that stemmed from a historic poem from the Tang Dynasty. The poem referred to the story of Li Xian, son of Empress Wu, who asked her mother not to harm her sons for political power.

My guess is that Hong Kong’s Chief Executive, Carrie Lam’s (who took office on 1 July 2017) days in office may be numbered — not because of these protests but because she is not able to govern.

 

[ngatimozart]

Three different articles on China's capabilities.

Has China Been Practicing Preemptive Missile Strikes Against U.S. Bases? argues satellite photos suggest that China has been practising missile strikes against US and allied bases. All militaries test the accuracy of their weapons systems and usually it is done against a static target on a range etc., and the CEP worked out statistically. Here the Chinese have used the shapes of ships docks and other facitilties on their ranges and they know that these will been spotted by satellite imagery. One way of sending a message.

China's South China Sea Militarization Has Peaked suggests that the Chinese reclaimed islands in the South China Sea, especially in the Spratley Islands have reached their military usefulness peak because of their vulnerabilities in any conflict due to their long logistic lines, plus their vulnerability to natural hazards e.g., storms, typhoons, tsunami etc. Also the climate is negatively impacting upon their platforms, especially aircraft, and other equipment.

China now strong enough for a surprise move in the Indo-Pacific argues that the China is now militarily strong enough to undertake a surprise move in the Indo Pacific region, and the US is not in a position to adequately respond, due to the combination of the Chinese A2AD strategy and decreasing future US military budgets. It specifically cites this report: Averting crisis: American Strategy, Military Spending and Collective Defence in the Indo-Pacific (pdf) from Sydney-based United States Studies Centre.

 

[OPSSG]

I can’t place enough emphasis on how important it is for the US, Australia and other ASEAN militaries to engage with the PLA, to built trust, keep communications open and to manage tensions, should the need arise. What is lacking is sufficient expertise on the PLA in the region.

Three different articles on China's capabilities.

Has China Been Practicing Preemptive Missile Strikes Against U.S. Bases? argues satellite photos suggest that China has been practising missile strikes against US and allied bases. All militaries test the accuracy of their weapons systems and usually it is done against a static target on a range etc., and the CEP worked out statistically. Here the Chinese have used the shapes of ships docks and other facitilties on their ranges and they know that these will been spotted by satellite imagery. One way of sending a message.

China's South China Sea Militarization Has Peaked suggests that the Chinese reclaimed islands in the South China Sea, especially in the Spratley Islands have reached their military usefulness peak because of their vulnerabilities in any conflict due to their long logistic lines, plus their vulnerability to natural hazards e.g., storms, typhoons, tsunami etc. Also the climate is negatively impacting upon their platforms, especially aircraft, and other equipment.

China now strong enough for a surprise move in the Indo-Pacific argues that the China is now militarily strong enough to undertake a surprise move in the Indo Pacific region, and the US is not in a position to adequately respond, due to the combination of the Chinese A2AD strategy and decreasing future US military budgets. It specifically cites this report: Averting crisis: American Strategy, Military Spending and Collective Defence in the Indo-Pacific (pdf) from Sydney-based United States Studies Centre.

Yes, that is one side of the picture — China is rising but they are also sitting on a demographic time bomb of an ageing middle class population. Traditionally, the middle class that is most difficult to satisfy in a slowing economy. The PLA is cautious in presenting itself as a ‘contributor’ for the regional security architecture and that caution buys Regional and Middle powers, like Japan and Australia, breathing space to build on existing relations and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.

The other side is US DOD and allied plans, be it:

- rushing the IOC for Northrop Grumman's MQ-8C, which is the Bell 407-based variant is larger than its 8B predecessor, but it's also more capable. The 8C can last roughly twice as long in the air at 12 hours on station, and carry roughly three times the payload — 701lbs, to be exact. It also packs new radar with a larger field of view and more modes, including air-to-air targeting;

- the US and its allies deploying over 200 F-35s in the Asia-Pacific region by around 2025, according to Gen. Charles Brown, commander of the U.S. Pacific Air Forces;

- the US Marine Corps learning how to incorporate its F-35Bs into its island-hopping concept of Expeditionary Advance Base Operations, with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (see: Marines Folding F-35B into New Pacific Island-Hopping Concept - USNI News);

- the USN plans to purchase an additional 21 P-8A Poseidons in June 2019 (in addition to some 117 prior orders, including 10 ordered in January). Foreign buyers are set to buy a similar number. The P8A is also operated by Australia and India, while the United Kingdom, Norway, South Korea and New Zealand all have outstanding orders;

- the buying into the joint DARPA / USN LRASM program for a new generation of anti-ship weapons, offering longer ranges and better odds against improving air defense systems. The US military is also expecting an environment where enemies try to jam or destroy the GPS system and encrypted datalink transmissions, compounding its difficulties in targeting opponents if it can’t get many of its platforms through advanced air defenses. Those considerations underline the importance of autonomous targeting. Beyond their anti-jamming digital GPS, therefore, LRASM will also rely on a 2-way data link, a radar sensor that can detect ships (and might also be usable for navigation), and a day/night camera for positive identification and final targeting.

• OASuW Increment 1 authorized a limited buy of air-launched LRASMs on Feb 3/14. Production missile purchases began in FY 2017, after LRASM was integrated with USN Super Hornets and USAF B-1 bombers with increased procurement quantities from 184 (PB 2019) to 374 (PB 2020).

• OASuW Increment 2 will address ship-launched requirements. Harpoon anti-ship missiles were removed from all American frigates many years ago, and haven’t been installed in DDG 51 destroyers since Flight IIA began with DDG 79. The lack of anti-ship missiles on American surface combatants is becoming a problem, and likely cuts will make it a bigger problem as the USN looks to cut operating costs by cutting expensive ships like cruisers. A vertically-launched anti-ship and land strike missile that removed the need for dedicated launchers topside would solve this problem.

- in sale of new weapons systems like the proposed sale of 66 F-16Vs to Taiwan; or

- even partner engagements — you can’t surge partnerships — which is why it is crucial to stay engaged — to shape opinions, to partner and train. See: Pacific Pathways 2.0 to bolster presence in the theater. For a US SOTF 511 perspective on local partnerships in the Philippines, see: Experimenting With the Art of Mission Command. Externally, SOTF 511 sent liaisons to the Special Operations Command Pacific (SOCPAC) Logistics Support Facility in Singapore to ensure smooth logistics support. Interagency liaisons at SOCPAC and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii improved deconfliction with other government stakeholders. This helped build trust and cooperation between SOCPAC, SOTF 511 and its interagency partners.

 

[Catalina]

Xi who must be obeyed...

If the Chairman of Everything, the Commander-in-chief of the PRC, the Chief of the Communist Party, the Chairman of the Military Commission, ordered the PLA to launch a bolt from the blue attack another nation, be it Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, or America, would the PLA follow his orders or would they refuse?

Leaders issue commands that start wars.

With his absolute concentration of power are we all just one order from Xi away from World War Three?

 

[OPSSG]

I want to encourage participation but kindly consider providing some content or links to some of your posts on China at least in 10% of your posts — otherwise the thread becomes all about politics and that is against forum rules. Posting without reading lowers the quality of the geo-political discussion and makes the thread boring. Please be kind to others like me, who bother to explain, provide links and share ideas.

Timeline: U.S. Relations With China 1949–2019

Can we rise the level of discussions, just a tiny bit, going forward?

Xi who must be obeyed...

If the Chairman of Everything, the Commander-in-chief of the PRC, the Chief of the Communist Party, the Chairman of the Military Commission, ordered the PLA to launch a bolt from the blue attack another nation, be it Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, or America, would the PLA follow his orders or would they refuse?

This is China bashing — without insight or understanding. While it is true that Xi Jinping consolidated power, he is not a one man show. Read up on other 24 members of the Politburo, including:

• Xu Qiliang, Vice chairman of the CMC;
• Liu He, the Vice Premier and head of the Financial Stability and Development Committee; and
• his boss, Premier Li Keqiang, who is the head of the Chinese Government.

China is way too complex to be governed by one man, instead it is governed by a team of leaders, in the State Council and in the CMC, to name a few of these organs of administrative and military power. By resorting to caricature, you miss an important cultural change in China — which is the improved ability of the CPP to take in a diverse range of view points under the same umbrella — the system in China is more open to constructive criticism within its own ranks. Kevin Rudd, a former Australian PM gives a TED talk on China that entertains and informs. In particular, he explains and gives insight on how to manage these differences with the Chinese.

While China’s military modernisation is part of an “all-of-nation” strategy, China as a resident power can play a constructive role in Asia (eg. China urges Japan, South Korea to resolve dispute through dialogue). With regard to maritime matters, China is inherently restrained in sticking to ‘grey zone’ disputes with her neighbours, in contrast to the Koreans (where both North Korean and South Korean navies do shoot at and kill each other). Let us not over state the risk with China, while recognizing the risk of miscalculation or simple stupidity in this "grey zone" conflict. The trigger happy clowns with a track record of irrational behavour in the area are the Pinoys. The North Koreans are trigger happy but even they are not irrational. And the Pinoys paid a price for this irrationality with Taiwan (see this DT thread: Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues). Kindly note that the PLA(N) have written agreements with the US military, such as, Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES), to reduce the likelihood of armed conflict — which they honour.

Partly the result of the numerous u-turns by the Pinoys in policy and China’s divide and conquer tactics, there is no consensus within ASEAN on how to address challenges in the South China Sea. Most ASEAN countries are not hostile to China, as the PLA grows it’s military to military ties with Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and with all 10 ASEAN members at the multilateral ADMM Plus exercises. For example, in August 2019, PLA’s air force’s J-10C and early warning aircraft will participate in "Exercise Eagle Strike-2019" at Udon Air Force Base, Thailand to train with the Royal Thai Air Force’s JAS-39C and it's SAAB 340 early warning aircraft. The J-10C is equipped with modern avionics including an indigenous Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) fire-control radar and the aircraft incorporates a range of signature reduction measures, and a new defensive aids system. This exercise in Thailand, the fourth of its kind, is scheduled from mid-August to early September. This exercise is aimed at deepening the cooperation and exchanges between the two air forces, testing their combat tactics, promoting weaponry development and improving their training under combat conditions. The previous three joint trainings were carried out in Thailand in 2015, 2017 and 2018.

Most naval, military or track 2 discussion professionals acknowledge that it is necessary to increase interactions and build expertise on China, so that the risks can be managed — On 14 April 2019, the Fifth Japan-China High-Level Economic Dialogue was held in Beijing. Unlike the Japanese, whose meetings in Beijing are short, most of Singapore’s current and next generation leadership can speak fluent Mandarin, have travelled extensively in China as technocrats, and have done their homework on their Chinese counterparts that they meet on these trips.

• On 23 May 2019, Singapore’s Deputy PM Heng Swee Keat met with China’s Premier Li in Beijing. “The fact that you have spent so much time with us shows the importance and attention given to our bilateral relations,” said Deputy PM Heng (Read more at China will treat businesses equally, continue to uphold free trade: Li Keqiang).
• In early May 2019, Singapore’s PM Lee Hsien Loong and President Halimah Yacob have also met President Xi and Premier Li while visiting Beijing.
• In November 2018, Premier Li made an official visit to Singapore, where the upgraded China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement was signed.

PM Lee Hsien Loong spoke at the 18th Shangri-La Dialogue on 31 May 2019, with the warning that the world risks losing the benefits of globalisation if tensions between US and China deepen. His speech won praise from Chinese media, for being an objective analysis of Sino-US ties. The thing to note is the ability of Singapore leaders to be in the same room with other leaders, be well briefed on contentious issues, and speak the same language — in Mandarin with Chinese leaders — in English with American leaders. Most people don’t realise is that PM Lee also speaks Bahasa Indonesia and Russian too — this multilingual ability helps build mutual understanding and explain it to others as ‘Singapore consulting.’ By being neutral and objective, Singapore was able to bridge mistrust and host both :

• the November 2015 Sino-Taiwan Summit; and
• the June 2018 Kim-Trump Summit.

BTW, Deputy PM Heng is the chosen successor to PM Lee; and will be the next PM of Singapore.

Leaders issue commands that start wars.

With his absolute concentration of power are we all just one order from Xi away from World War Three?

I have explained various risk factors to be managed time and again in posts in numerous threads (eg. South China Sea thoughts?), please browse through them — China is not planning to start WWIII without any rhyme or reason — as you seem to suggest. As I said before, there is no desire or will by US or China to start wars with each other, currently. For example, on 7 May 1999, the US accidentally bombed China's embassy in Belgrade (no war resulted). A good example of where the US is in the absolute wrong and China was restrained.

 

[OPSSG]

So far, the US has imposed tariffs on more than US$360 billion of Chinese goods, and China has retaliated with tariffs on more than US$110 billion of US products. To date, Washington delivered three rounds of tariffs last year, and a fourth one in September. The latest round targeted Chinese imports, from meat to musical instruments, with a 15% duty. Beijing has hit back with tariffs ranging from 5% to 25% on US goods.

China is prepared to meet the United States more than halfway in the ongoing trade conflict, but the “rather robust” US negotiation techniques sometimes make it difficult for the nation to meet these demands, says a former Singapore minister. “China’s strategy (regarding the trade dispute) is very clear. China doesn’t want to escalate it,” said George Yeo, Singapore’s former foreign minister. “But China will not be bullied and it will not be humiliated.”

This article argues that it's not going to be an if but a when the PAP (Peoples Armed Police) / PLA become involved. The CCP Politburo know their history and they will have closely looked at other communist govts and the results of challenges to their power. One of the basic tenants of marxism is the concept of historical dichotemy, and even though it applies to the workers and ownership of the means of production, it also applies to the retention of power and the subjucated population.

How Close Is Hong Kong to a Second Tiananmen?

The level of violence by the HK protestors in late Aug and early Sept have re-escalated, after only 1 weekend of peaceful protests (on weekend of 18 August 2019). This I believe is a mistake by the protestor leaders. It’s reached a point where intervention by Beijing, using either the PLA or the Peoples Armed Police, is more likely in the weeks ahead to render assistance to the HK police, to restore order. IMO, any non-essential travel to HK in October and November should be cancelled — until order is restored. It is clear that some of the local HK people are fighting each other; and HK police is restrained in its use of force — the reporting and footage circulated on social media, I have seen is often very unfair to the police. See the Cantonese news report on fights in the MTR system.

Earlier (up till end-August 2019), Beijing may have preferred that the HK deal with the situation themselves. Carrie Lam’s statement as leaked to Reuters, on 2 September 2019, makes it clear that the power of decision has passed to Beijing. HK’s chief executive (CE), Carrie Lam, CANNOT even resign at this time, let alone accommodate the protestors’5 demands. Given the scale of the civil unrest and the latest tactics used by the protestors, the HK police are undermanned.

The issue is not about the substance of the 5 demands, which are actually relatively trivial. With the ever escalating level of violence, HK protestors have foolishly made the issue unsolvable by Carrie Lam’s administration. I believe, the vast majority of mainland Chinese people are not supportive of the HK protests at this time. Further, on 29 August 2019, China has rotated fresh troops into the 6,000 strong PLA garrison. Despite claims the rotation was "routine", the timing has amplified fears Beijing could be preparing to intervene directly in Hong Kong with the PLA or use main land police force to augment the HK police. For background, there is a seven-step procedure established for the PLA mobilization and chain of command:

(1) the Security Bureau briefs the CE – Hong Kong’s top leader – on the need to request a PLA deployment,
(2) the CE submits a formal request to the central government in Beijing,
(3) the Security Bureau notifies the PLA garrison in Hong Kong,
(4) the central government approves the request and notifies the CE and the Central Military Commission, the PLA’s command and control body,
(5) the Central Military Commission notifies its Joint Staff Department, the Southern Theater Command and the PLA garrison in the city for mobilization,
(6) the Hong Kong Police Force sets up a command center at its headquarters compound and appoints an assistant police chief as the commander, and
(7) the commander briefs the PLA garrison, and the latter will have carte blanche to conduct its operations.

At a press conference in Beijing this week carried on live news feeds, spokesman Yang Guang, of the Chinese central government’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, said that the Hong Kong protests “far exceeded the scope of normal assemblies and rallies” and added that they would be considered “violent crimes” in “any country, any region, or under any legal system.” See Time’s article: Beijing Intensifies Condemnation of Hong Kong Protests

More significantly, John Lee, HK’s secretary for security, changed that stance on Monday, 2 September 2019, as the HK government escalated its criticism of the months long demonstrations. “The extent of violence, danger and destruction have reached very serious conditions,” Mr. Lee said. “Radical people have escalated their violent and illegal acts, showing elements of terror.”

 

[OPSSG]

China Is on Track to Have Four Total Aircraft Carriers in the Next Two Years. Since 1985, China has acquired four retired aircraft carriers for study: the Australian HMAS Melbourne and the ex-Soviet carriers Minsk, Kiev and Varyag. The Varyag later underwent an extensive refit to be converted into the Liaoning, China's first operational aircraft carrier, which also served as a basis for China's subsequent design iterations. As of 2018, the PLAN has a single combat-ready aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, with a second on sea trials (the Type 002), and a third and fourth (the Type 003) under construction. The new Type 003 carrier will forgo the ski ramp method for CATOBAR, or Catapult-Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery. The use of catapults will allow the carrier to launch heavier aircraft with great fuel and weapons loads, making the carrier more effective as a power projection platform. China is now the world's second-largest military spender — going from just 2% of the world's military budget in 1990 to 14% now. According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, military spending was US$1.8 trillion in 2018 alone, which SIPRI Senior Researcher Pieter Wezeman called a "worrying trend."

US military spending grew—for the first time since 2010—by 4.6 per cent, to reach $649 billion in 2018. The USA remained by far the largest spender in the world, and spent almost as much on its military in 2018 as the next eight largest-spending countries combined. China, the second-largest spender in the world, increased its military expenditure by 5.0 per cent to $250 billion in 2018. This was the 24th consecutive year of increase in Chinese military expenditure. Its spending in 2018 was almost 10 times higher than in 1994, and accounted for 14 per cent of world military spending. ‘Growth in Chinese military spending tracks the country’s overall economic growth,’ says Tian. ‘China has allocated 1.9 per cent of its GDP to the military every year since 2013.’

On 9 Sep 2019, China and Thailand signed a 6.5 billion baht (US$210 million) deal with a Chinese shipbuilding company to build a Type 071E landing platform dock (LPD) for the Thai navy. The Type 071 LPD is a 20,000 ton-class warship that can carry combat personnel and equipment, including air-cushioned landing craft (LCAC), amphibious assault vehicles, tanks and helicopters. Thailand could use the warship to conduct naval transport missions, boosting the country's troop deployment capability in the high seas, Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military analyst, told the Global Times. See: China to build warship for Thailand - Global Times. Congratulations are in order for the Thai Navy. As is typical of balancing behaviour amongst ASEAN countries, Thailand also procured 60 refurbished Stryker infantry carrier vehicles from the Americans.

In 2011 the Thai navy wanted to buy six German-made second-hand submarines at a cost of 7.7 billion baht but requests were rejected by the Yingluck Shinawatra government at the time. Since then there has been a political veer to the east and an increase in military spending with China. Construction began in China on the first of three submarines for Thailand in September 2018 and is expected to be delivered to the Thai navy in 2023.

The sale of naval vessels and submarines to Thailand and Malaysia, (4 littoral mission vessels) cement China’s growing stature in naval shipbuilding for the region. China’s increasing arms sales to ASEAN member states not only enhances its security credentials as ADMM Plus member, it also provides a boost to its domestic economy, at a time of a trade war with the US.

 

[Ananda]

On 9 Sep 2019, China and Thailand signed a 6.5 billion baht (US$210 million) deal with a Chinese shipbuilding company to build a Type 071E landing platform dock (LPD) for the Thai navy. The Type 071 LPD is a 20,000 ton-class warship that can carry combat personnel and equipment, including air-cushioned landing craft (LCAC), amphibious assault vehicles, tanks and helicopters. Thailand could use the warship to conduct naval transport missions, boosting the country's troop deployment capability in the high seas, Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military analyst, told the Global Times. See: China to build warship for Thailand - Global Times. Congratulations are in order for the Thai Navy. As is typical of balancing behaviour amongst ASEAN countries, Thailand also procured 60 refurbished Stryker infantry carrier vehicles from the Americans.

Another article related on that from Naval Today:
Thailand orders Type 071E landing platform dock from China

It's going to be good addition for Thai's amphibious asset, however for me can't keep thinking with Thailand's relative limited amphibious assets, they seems procuring on various sources. Their other LPD was from ST, they got light carrier (that from I read also used for amphibious support role) from Navantia and now this from China. Wondering if this is going to be another one off procurement too.

Well, the present Thai military government seems more incline to have cooperation with Chinese defense supplier (we see that on Thai's Army also), compared to other previous government.

Balancing act on defense with Chinese defense equipment being done not only by Thai, but also Malaysia, and even in relative smaller number Indonesia. Off course the traditional Chinese 'friends' like Myanmar and Cambodia have predominantly Chinese armament.

However the way I see it, Thai's recently has more tendencies to closing rank with China. If we used defense procurement as reference. Malaysia and Indonesia even with latest procurement, still source relative lower than Thai's in Chinese equipment.

Perhaps this also Thai's move related to signal Chinese business they are going to be more 'friendly' to more Chinese companies investment.
Vietnam so far getting more Chinese companies investment, especially those who wants relocating their factory for US market. Vietnam seems got more Investment due to their proximity to China, despite their Government on security and defense issue are not 'friendly' with China.

Off course attracting investment are not depends on just one or two factors, but perception of your government more friendly to China, could be one of the card That's used by Thai's.

 

[ASSAIL]

The Chinese 70th Anniversary parade was quite a spectacle and would please the cold heart of every Drill Sergeant/Chief Gunnery Instructor I have ever met.
Isn’t it amazing how everyone in China is exactly the same size

 

[Ananda]

That's a lot of DF's balistic missiles being parade..China seems putting strong massage on this year military parade.

 

[ngatimozart]

Defense News report on the PRC 70th anniversary military parade. It also has a link to the Guardian Youtube link of full coverage of the parade which I've linked to below. There appears to be no commentary on the feed.

China unveils drones, missiles and hypersonic glide vehicle at military parade

 

[ngatimozart]

The Lowy Institute has published a couple of items on Hong Kong and Taiwan. There are linkages, and they will impact the wider region and globally especially if the PRC succeeds in invading, subduing and investing Taiwan. It can be argued with some degree of certainty that the PRC has not abided by the terms of its Treaty with the UK regarding the freedoms and rights of Hong Kongers. The Taiwanese and others will have been watching closely and have reached the conclusion that any such agreement with the PRC is not worth the paper that it is written on. This along with the PRC actions in the South China Sea, and its total refusal to acknowledge the UNCLOS with respect to the SCS, of which it is a signatory, would tend to support that conclusion.

Beijing's tactics are driving spiral of violence in Hong Kong

Touted as ‘next Hong Kong’ Taiwan lives on the edge

 

[ngatimozart]

It appears that the Russians are somewhat annoyed with the continual Chinese theft of their military technology. Unfortunately from the Russian POV, they cannot cease the export of arms and technology to Beijing because they need the money, so they just have to grin and bear it.

Russia up in arms over Chinese theft of military technology

The Chinese are also constructing an airfield in a remote coastal area of Cambodia that will have the longest runway in Cambodia, whilst nearby a port is being built in a national park where the water depth is enough for naval shipping. In both cases the funding and construction companies are Chinese with close links to the CCP / Chinese Govt.

A Jungle Airstrip Stirs Suspicions About China’s Plans for Cambodia



Cambodia appears to be morphing into just a vassal state of the PRC; at the beck and call of the CCP and PLA. The map above shows that the two bases would give the PRC a commanding air and naval presence close to Malaysia, Singapore, the Straits of Malacca and Indonesia. If they have managed to create vassal state of Laos in the same way as Cambodia, then they can support both bases overland from the PRC. This will also cause concerns for Vietnam, because in effect, it will have its SLOC from the Indian Ocean threatened even more by the PRC.

 

[ngatimozart]

I came across this earlier today. She can be a hard read in places but if you persevere worth it. The author is a PRC national and Professor or Law in a Beijing university who is a real critic or Xi Jinping. He doesn't hold back either and has probably been arrested now. To say that he doesn't like Xi Jinping and the current govt is an understatement; he's quite scathing of them and very good with words. Viral Alarm: When Fury Overcomes Fear. It has been translated into English by an academic based in the Wairarapa, NZ.

The author also published an earlier piece, Imminent Fears, Immediate Hopes — A Beijing Jeremiad, warning the current PRC leaders, that they risk losing the mandate of heaven. Throughout Chinese history all rulers, rule at the pleasure of the Gods; the Mandate of Heaven. If they displease the Gods, then they will lose the mandate of heaven, hence their ability to rule. Most, if not all, dynasties who lost the mandate of heaven were overthrown by conquest or revolt. I regard the CCP as another imperial dynasty, so if they are perceived to have lost the mandate of heaven, the population will feel no qualms in overthrowing them, because they will be following the will of the Gods and Confucism. The thing to remember is that we must look at China through a Chinese lens, not through a western lens.

 

[Stampede]

It appears that the Russians are somewhat annoyed with the continual Chinese theft of their military technology. Unfortunately from the Russian POV, they cannot cease the export of arms and technology to Beijing because they need the money, so they just have to grin and bear it.

Russia up in arms over Chinese theft of military technology

The Chinese are also constructing an airfield in a remote coastal area of Cambodia that will have the longest runway in Cambodia, whilst nearby a port is being built in a national park where the water depth is enough for naval shipping. In both cases the funding and construction companies are Chinese with close links to the CCP / Chinese Govt.

A Jungle Airstrip Stirs Suspicions About China’s Plans for Cambodia

View attachment 46991

Cambodia appears to be morphing into just a vassal state of the PRC; at the beck and call of the CCP and PLA. The map above shows that the two bases would give the PRC a commanding air and naval presence close to Malaysia, Singapore, the Straits of Malacca and Indonesia. If they have managed to create vassal state of Laos in the same way as Cambodia, then they can support both bases overland from the PRC. This will also cause concerns for Vietnam, because in effect, it will have its SLOC from the Indian Ocean threatened even more by the PRC.

Yep



China has the right to safe guard its defence and economic security with such activity.
The region has the right to be cautious of such activity and where it my lead.

A dynamic and changing region.

Regards S

 

[ngatimozart]

Foreign Policy article on China's response How China’s Incompetence Endangered the World. It's worth the read and I think it covers most points. Most of all the most important point it makes, is that the it is all about trust and the PRC is losing that both domestically and internationally. IMHO it's lost that trust already.

 

[John Fedup]

@ngatimozart ...very good FP review article. Having seen the Chernobyl TV series earlier this year which showed the former Soviet regime’s horrible initial response to the disaster, the similarities to this virus outbreak is remarkable. The outcome from Chernobyl was fatal to the Russian communist government but major damage was confined to within Russia. The CCP may survive this but damage confined to China is unlikely wrt this virus and China’s image will be stained for years. This is also proof as to why Chinese currency will never replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency as long as the CCP is running China, zero trust.