Caucasian Powderkeg?

[Firehorse]

The U.S is not going to risk bringing in aircraft over hostile territory, if they do it will be to pick up the U.S advisors and that will be coordinated with Russia and Georgia.

I agree- but they could at least bring them to Georgia's southern border. Those G. troops in Iraq won't be useful there now, when their homeland is at war, and if it were to end soon, Georgia will want to have as many as possible close at hand, just in case.
This reminds me of '06 Lebanon bombing by Israel and helicopter - assisted evacuations of Westerners.
Also, even if Russia doesn't have enough regular troops for an all-out war/occupation, she can provide support to Ossetians and Abhazians- with enough arms & training they would keep Georgians in Georgia proper. BTW, the Chehens were only brought under control after the implementation of "devide and conquer" methods!

 

[Black Legion]

The thing that bothers me is the Georgian strategy. At first one may think, oh look how stupid they are, they gave the Russian an 'excuse' to enter Southern Ossetia and even brought the fighting on their own soil.

You don't have to be especially smart in terms of politics or military knowledge to know that by bombing the region in question and entering with full force is going to cause serious consequences due to the fact of long term Russian involvement and the fact that most people in the Southern Ossetia have Russian passports.

So what Georgia wanted to accomplish with this kind of approach? They used brute force to solve their problems, and now it has backfired on them? To what end? I hardly think it was a Georgian bluff. You don't base your steps on this scale on a bluff when a country and its people are at stake.

Americans have their military instructors for a long time in Georgia and it's very well known that it's a western ally, so it's normal for one to ask did US have anything to do with this when it comes to making decisions.

It's also surprising how mild the US response was to this conflict, or they were totally surprised by the events at hand or was it expected to happen as their eyes are gazed somewhere else and a diversion such as this is most welcome, plus the Russian will be busy for quite some time with this. And what I'm aiming is: Has anybody noticed this or can confirm that is true???

I'm not attempting to create here some conspiracy theory, just asking questions about this conflict which isn't so clear and obvious as it seems when it comes to 'whys'.

 

[Firehorse]

Good points! Before 9/11/01, Checnyans were tacitly used to weaken Russia. Now, it's Georgians turn in the new "Great Game". Of course the relevant US services new what was up! Perhaps the Russian's strong responce came as a surprise to some, but it's not over yet!

 

[Type59]

The thing that bothers me is the Georgian strategy. At first one may think, oh look how stupid they are, they gave the Russian an 'excuse' to enter Southern Ossetia and even brought the fighting on their own soil.

You don't have to be especially smart in terms of politics or military knowledge to know that by bombing the region in question and entering with full force is going to cause serious consequences due to the fact of long term Russian involvement and the fact that most people in the Southern Ossetia have Russian passports.

So what Georgia wanted to accomplish with this kind of approach? They used brute force to solve their problems, and now it has backfired on them? To what end? I hardly think it was a Georgian bluff. You don't base your steps on this scale on a bluff when a country and its people are at stake.

Americans have their military instructors for a long time in Georgia and it's very well known that it's a western ally, so it's normal for one to ask did US have anything to do with this when it comes to making decisions.

It's also surprising how mild the US response was to this conflict, or they were totally surprised by the events at hand or was it expected to happen as their eyes are gazed somewhere else and a diversion such as this is most welcome, plus the Russian will be busy for quite some time with this. And what I'm aiming is: Has anybody noticed this or can confirm that is true???

I'm not attempting to create here some conspiracy theory, just asking questions about this conflict which isn't so clear and obvious as it seems when it comes to 'whys'.

If Russia achieves its war aims, whatever that is, they will be greatly boosted. If America thinks it can benefit from this they are playing a risky game. Unless Russia and America have made a deal, of demonic proportions betraying their allies?

 

[Feanor]

Ok so a few updates. The mission of the Russian forces is clear now. They're there to stop all hostilities in the conflict zone by essentially demolishing the Georgian military that tries to do anything. Apparently additional parts of the 58th Army have entered S. Ossetia.

So allegedly at 3:00 local time shelling of Ts'hivanli stopped. It's unclear whether this is a lull, whether Georgian positions in Gori were completely suppressed by Russian air strikes, or whether the Georgians are pulling back their artillery units.

Another update, the CPRF asked for annexation of S. Ossetia. Apparently battles in Ts'hinvali proper are over. Here's a nice map of the conflict zone, courtesy of Lenta.ru Also allegedly 3 more peacekeepers died in the conflict zone, bringing Russian casualties to 15 dead and apparently at least 50 wounded. Battles in Ts'hivali proper have ended it seems, but Georgians are still in control of much of S. Ossetia. Russian Spetznaz forces are being deployed to the region.

I hope we get to see at least some of Russia's new gear in this conflict (spetznaz Ka-50's for example).

 

[eckherl]

Why in the hell is it that everytime something goes wrong in the world some of you try to spin it as some type of underline motive that the U.S has, what would the U.S possibly gain by giving the Georgians a green light to attempt to pull off this type of stunt. The U.S military advisors are there to help train Georgian units that are rotating in and out of Iraq.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Why in the hell is it that everytime something goes wrong in the world some of you try to spin it as some type of underline motive that the U.S has

HINT: Ignore the "fervent" kids and just focus on those who can stay level.

 

[Feanor]

It's also surprising how mild the US response was to this conflict, or they were totally surprised by the events at hand or was it expected to happen as their eyes are gazed somewhere else and a diversion such as this is most welcome, plus the Russian will be busy for quite some time with this. And what I'm aiming is: Has anybody noticed this or can confirm that is true???

I'm not attempting to create here some conspiracy theory, just asking questions about this conflict which isn't so clear and obvious as it seems when it comes to 'whys'.

Let me tear apart a little bit of their specifics struck me as plain retardation.

The Russian Navy this spring sent a major battle fleet into the Mediterranean headed by the modern aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov and the flagship of its Black Sea Fleet, the Guided Missile Heavy Cruiser Moskva.

This mild Mediterranean cruise took a long time to prepare and was lauded as a huge success despite being fairly modest in scope. Heading out to Iran is a whole different story.

This powerful fleet has at least 11 surface ships and unknown numbers of subs and can use the Russian naval facility at Syria's Tartous port for resupply. The Admiral Kuznetsov carries approximately 47 warplanes and 10 helicopters.

Crap. It can carry 17. 5 Su-25UTG and 12 Su-33.

The warplanes are mostly the powerful Su-33, a naval version (with mid-air refueling capability) of the Su-27 family. While the Su-33 is a very powerful warplane it lacks the power of the stealth USAF F-22. However, the Russians insist that they have developed a plasma based system that allows them to stealth any aircraft and a recent incident where Russian fighters were able to appear unannounced over a US Navy carrier battle group tends to confirm their claims.

More crap. No operational evidence. The plasma stealth remains a deeply theoretical concept.

The Su-33 can be armed with the 3M82 Moskit sea-skimming missile (NATO code name SS-N-22 Sunburn) and the even more powerful P-800 Oniks (also named Yakhonts; NATO code name SS-N-26 Onyx). Both missiles are designed to kill US Navy supercarriers by getting past the cruiser/destroyer screen and the USN point-defense Phalanx system by using high supersonic speeds and violent end maneuvers. Russian subs currently use the underwater rocket VA-111 Shkval (Squall), which is fired from standard 533mm torpedo tubes and reaches a speed of 360kph (230mph) underwater. There is no effective countermeasures to this system and no western counterpart.

Speculation that smacks of fanboy ravings. No evidence that they can saturate a CVBG with only 12 Flankers. I highly doubt it. Just from reading this part it seems like the blog is not to be trusted. The rest of the blog's discussion of Iranian bio-weapons seems like pure sci-fi. I don't see it happening any time soon. I'd ignore it.

 

[peterAustralia]

Whomever prevail in this conflict I do not know, I guess it is one way of dealing with issues. No doubt a lot of people will die for an issue that ideally could be negotiated

It will be interesting to see how military equipment works. If Russia has learnt good lessons from it's war in Chechnya. If the extra oil revenue of recent years has allowed Russia to upgrade it's military equipment sufficiently for it to work well.

From a pragmatic point of view, it will allow the Russian air force to test it's planes and tactics against a strong AA defenses. In the news today it was said tat Georgia claims to have downed 5 Russians jets. It would be interesting to know what AA systems Georgia has.

I assume Georgia has advanced guided AT missiles. Russia will gain an opportunity to combat test it's latest weapons like tanks, missiles, planes etc against advanced weapon systems. This is something that America has had an opportunity to do, but Russia has only had limited ability to do, as Chechnya did not have sophisticated tanks, planes, AA missiles etc.

 

[BlackAdder]

What relevance do the Six Day War and October War have to the situation?

And why divide by ten?

Are you Georgian?

No, I'm not Georgian. My reference to those two wars was made after recalling, how Egyptians were downing hundreds of Israeli jets every minute (well, according to their news bulletins). So, Georgian reports about six Russian planes downed must be approached with the same pinch of salt as Egyptian reports.

 

[BlackAdder]

Good points! Before 9/11/01, Checnyans were tacitly used to weaken Russia. Now, it's Georgians turn in the new "Great Game". Of course the relevant US services new what was up! Perhaps the Russian's strong responce came as a surprise to some, but it's not over yet!

What the heck? Are you one of those 9/11 conspiracy theorists? You might check The Onion then...

 

[nevidimka]

BTW, have anyone realize the significance of the georgian attacks. They started thier war on the 080808, and 8 days after the sun eclipse, and 8 days b4 the moon eclipse. Looks like the sun eclipse 8 days b4 the 080808 was bad omen after all....eheheheh.


Also the US is playing a dangerous game if it wants to attack IRan. I seriously hope US does not do that. The whole worlds economy can be affected by this reckless US decision to push Iran to attack them n then subsequently start a war against Iran. This is why a Unipolar world is not in the best of interest of the world.

 

[FluffyThoughts]

Confirmation

Russian commander admits at least two aircraft shot-down. [SkyNews] Georgians claim one pilot captured.

Doubt we will know the truth whilst all sides spin-their-lines. Not sure what the Georgians expect to achieve, unless it is to bleed Russia white as the Finns did in the Winter-War.

Turkey has (allegedly) offered Georgia economic-aid. [Source: Wikipedia.] Don't the Turk's have their own F-16 production-line...?

 

[FluffyThoughts]

Apparently the lost aircraft were a Frogfoot and a Blinder. Wiki suggests that the Tu-22 was scrapped by Russia in the 1990's. Can anyone explain the anomaly...?

 

[FluffyThoughts]

SkyNews: breaking news.

Georgian President declares "State of War". Who will blink first...?

 

[baranek]

It might be tu-22m backfire instead of blinder because they are not supposed to be flyong since 1990s when they were ritered.

 

[BlackAdder]

Apparently the lost aircraft were a Frogfoot and a Blinder. Wiki suggests that the Tu-22 was scrapped by Russia in the 1990's. Can anyone explain the anomaly...?

I understood that it was a Backfire-C, Tu-22M3 that was downed.

 

[Feanor]

So it's confirmed then, Strategic Airforce units are involved? Why not just more frontal aviation? And why hasn't SEAD and DEAD been prioritized on over interdiction?

So reports are conflicting. After the initial panic that the Russian offensive caused in Georgia, the Georgian leadership realzed that they're only fighting limited elements of the Russians 58th Army, along with a few other units. Apparently the 76th VDV has been deployed to the conflict zone. From the way the article frased it, it sounded like the whole division was relocated to the N. Caucus MD and elements are in the conflict zone. We also have conflicting reports, for one Russia claims to have freed all of Ts'hinvali and reached the peacekeepers bases with elements of the 58th Army. On the other hand Georgian Ministry of Defense claims that the offensive against S. Ossetia is still continuing successfully.

One important detail. The two statements aren't directly contradictory. Russian forces so far seem to only be present around Ts'hinvali and the Zars road from the Roki tunnel. The rest of S. Ossetia is basically undefended and the Georgian offensive there is continuing as planned.

Also there are discrepancies. Either 12 or 15 Russian peacekeepers and soldiers are dead (I don't know if that includes one of the downed pilots who supposedly died), and either 70 or 150 wounded.

Finally in the air Tbilisi claims 6 Russian jets shot down, Russia admits to losing two. All Georgian aircraft are apparently destroyed (most on the ground, one in the air) as no more news of Georgian air attacks have come since the strike on Georgian airbases by the VVS.

 

[eaf-f16]

Why not just more frontal aviation? And why hasn't SEAD and DEAD been prioritized on over interdiction?

Can you tell what kind of ADS do the Georgians have? I found nothing reliable on the internet about their ADS. Wiki says they have SA-11 but I don't trust it.

No, I'm not Georgian. My reference to those two wars was made after recalling, how Egyptians were downing hundreds of Israeli jets every minute (well, according to their news bulletins). So, Georgian reports about six Russian planes downed must be approached with the same pinch of salt as Egyptian reports.

We did down hundreds of Israeli planes in the October War (but not in the Six-Day war and I don't think we claimed we did). And the Israelis lied like hell in both wars.

In the war of attrition the Israelis claimed that they shot over 12 MiG-21's (I think their initial claim was 19) in one day for a loss of 0 on their side.

Their claim was later reduced (after the cease-fire) to 2 MiG's of "other types" and only 1 Mig-21 in exchange for 1 Israeli Mirage...

This picture below is of an Israeli F-4 being downed over Syria. The Israeli MoD re-released this picture and published it in Israel as a picture of an Egyptian MiG-21 being shot down by Israeli Mirage fighters. Even though they knew it was an Israeli F-4.

Picture's here.

I'd give you more examples but this is for another forum.

 

[BlackAdder]

We did down hundreds of Israeli planes in the October War (but not in the Six-Day war and I don't think we claimed we did). And the Israelis lied like hell in both wars.

Well, you asked for it 1967 June 6, 8:17 PM Radio Cairo report "86 enemy aircraft has been destroyed" As for the Yom Kippur (or October, or Ramadan,whatever) war, yes there were 102 Israeli aircraft downed, I concur. However, that's not hundreds, if my English is correct . "Hundreds" were destroyed only in imagination of Arab propagandists. In Cairo and Damascus.