Caucasian Powderkeg?

[ASFC]

US defending Georgia after what they do with Ts'hivali and smaller villages will end very bad for US.

That is what you said Chrom-when people start making accusations like that without backing it up you will excuse me if i'm a little critical about it, as that statement makes it sound like Georgia is doing more than fighting Russian and Ossetian Forces. There is a difference between making 'sweeping accusations about Georgias conduct of war' and an 'accurate depiction of battle damage in the towns and villages affected'.

I do not need to chill, i'm only questioning what another poster has written, we are here after all to debate what is going on in that area of the world.

Anyway Feanor has done a service for us for which he has for gone some sleep for-I myself have found this thread useful because I would otherwise be stuck with western sources that *tend* to paint the Russians as the bad guys.

It is easy to forget that real people are being affected here and it is not just a hypothetical debate.

 

[BlackAdder]

How about we calm down now so the thread isn't locked?

Imagine citizens from your country were being intentionally targeted. Wouldn't you be mad also?

Georgia chose to go into S.Ossetia and kill Russian citizens. If they get beat into dust by Russia, then it is entirely the fault of Georgia.

OK, let's resort to reason then. As I see, if Georgians get beat into dust by Russia now, everything's fine, since they started it (I assume that you have psychic powers to discern the only possible truth from the conflicting reports coming from the region, whereas I refrain from saying who started what until the dust will settle and facts get established).
Following this logic, the Georgians had the same right go and bomb Tskhinvali into rubble because in 1991-1992 they had 1000 killed and much more displaced from South Ossetia.
You know, some circulus vitiosus...

 

[eaf-f16]

The only difference is that Washington has more room for manouevre here than Moscow.

How is that exactly?

Russia can effectively employ its diplomatic, economic and military power to strong effect against the opponent of its "client state" (as you put it).

The US can employ only diplomatic and economic powers to very limited effect.

 

[BlackAdder]

Georgia done beautiful job to achieve that. I fear, now even Georgian allies will find it very hard to help Georgia.

Well, until you have Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline flowing, they will not find it very hard This is, by the way, one of the reasons why Moscow liked the situation like it was until now. Neither peace, nor war. Neither Georgian, nor Ossetian way. Neither stability, nor outright chaos. Just perfect world

 

[merocaine]

In fact, I don't envy nor Moscow neither Washington. It's a typical example of client states upping the ante and making people call their bluff. The only difference is that Washington has more room for manouevre here than Moscow.

Hummmm, it looks like Russia is the one doing the manovering at the moment.
As I said Russia are going to extract the maximum out of this situation.
The Georgians are going to learn that the Americans value there relations with Russia a whole lot more than there relations with them.

 

[BlackAdder]

Hummmm, it looks like Russia is the one doing the manovering at the moment.
As I said Russia are going to extract the maximum out of this situation.
The Georgians are going to learn that the Americans value there relations with Russia a whole lot more than there relations with them.

Americans can afford appearing impartial and bringing Georgia to order. Russia cannot afford throwing away one of few footholds it enjoys in the Caucasus. Appear weak, then sit and wait from news in Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria etc etc. And then find yourself with only Armenia and Kadyrov in your team. So, I stand by my previous remark - Russia could not let the local mob dictate when and on what grounds it will be forced into military engagement.

 

[Chrom]

That is what you said Chrom-when people start making accusations like that without backing it up you will excuse me if i'm a little critical about it, as that statement makes it sound like Georgia is doing more than fighting Russian and Ossetian Forces. There is a difference between making 'sweeping accusations about Georgias conduct of war' and an 'accurate depiction of battle damage in the towns and villages affected'.

Ts'hinvali and dozen smaller villages almost completely razed by MLRS and artillery - confirmed.

As i said, even IF Georgian didnt committed any genocide this time, thousands of civilians died will still give too much favor in russian diplomatic position. US will hard time to beat that, and Europa will be 100% diplomatically neutral, or even slightly against Georgia. We'll see it tomorrow.

 

[Chrom]

Hummmm, it looks like Russia is the one doing the manovering at the moment.
As I said Russia are going to extract the maximum out of this situation.
The Georgians are going to learn that the Americans value there relations with Russia a whole lot more than there relations with them.

Yes, this is what always get forgotten by many.

 

[windscorpion]

OK, sorry, if I sound repetitive, but it must be clear that Georgians didn't invest any hope into military solution of the stalemate they had in South Ossetia. What they wanted is to transform the conflict. From the Georgian-South Ossetian internal (territorial integrity vs national self-determination etc etc) one into Georgian-Russian one. And then to get Western powers to mediate between Moscow and Tbilisi. When you have an impartial broker with the clout of EU and US sitting at the round table you stand better chance than before.

Interesting, that would make more sense. In many ways Georgia was pretty helpless before against the might of their neighbour.

 

[Chrom]

Interesting, that would make more sense. In many ways Georgia was pretty helpless before against the might of their neighbour.

If Georgia trying to change that with current actions - then Saakashvilli is just an idiot.

P.S. Some photos here - several hours old. http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-34030-19.html

 

[ASFC]

Ts'hinvali and dozen smaller villages almost completely razed by MLRS and artillery - confirmed.

As i said, even IF Georgian didnt committed any genocide this time, thousands of civilians died will still give too much favor in russian diplomatic position. US will hard time to beat that, and Europa will be 100% diplomatically neutral, or even slightly against Georgia. We'll see it tomorrow.

Well the BBC have said that according to the Russian Defence Ministry, 10 Russian Peacekeepers were killed and 30 wounded, and 15 civilians have been confirmed as dead. So you can see why with such differing accounts of events I won't take anything at face value.

Moscow's defence ministry said more than 10 of its peacekeeping troops in South Ossetia had been killed and 30 wounded in the Georgian offensive. At least 15 civilians are also reported dead.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7548715.stm

I'm not saying that the death toll is this low, I expect it to be higher.

 

[merocaine]

Heres a good summing up from a reporter in moscow, with excellent picures to accompany it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2008/aug/08/georgia.russia.ossetia

SU-24/25 's Helicopter Gunships, Lots of tanks, MSLRs, this is the real deal folks.

With all that heavy metal flying about theres bound to be high civilian

causality's.

Well the BBC have said that according to the Russian Defence Ministry, 10 Russian Peacekeepers were killed and 30 wounded, and 15 civilians have been confirmed as dead. So you can see why with such differing accounts of events I won't take anything at face value.

The BBC are a little behind the times on this story.
But we'll have to wait and see

 

[FluffyThoughts]

Everyone stand-down!

Anyone with a knowledge of the Caucusus will understand that this is a minefield! Chechnya is an example.

I'll assume that F-22 are now flying towards Dyarbakir [sp?]. Typhoons will be in Iraqui airspace soon.

The Turk's support Georgia, as do Azerbaijanis. Ironically the Armenians back the Russians. This is not a sensible solution.

Ironic some-what: Stalin was a Georgian who killed millions. A Russian hero...?

 

[BlackAdder]

Well the BBC have said that according to the Russian Defence Ministry, 10 Russian Peacekeepers were killed and 30 wounded, and 15 civilians have been confirmed as dead. So you can see why with such differing accounts of events I won't take anything at face value.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7548715.stm

My point exactly. Let's be reasonable. For one thing I really doubt that Georgia has a firepower to kill thousands of civilians in the course of few hours (unless some of our Russian friends here will helpfully point out that this Saakashvili bastard has secretly acquired tactical nukes or has been busy compiling fuel-air bombs arsenal lately). Secondly, the entire S.Ossetian population is 70 thousands. Thirdly, They've been through two wars and know more about keeping themselves out of harms way than we in this forum will ever learn. Fourthly, the escalation of the conflict has been going for a week and plenty of civilians have already made their way to relatives across the border. Fifthly, both parties are trying to drum up PR support by spreading fairy tales about viciousness of the opponent.
Therefore, let's wait for hard facts.
As for the international chess game... Well, Chinese must be mad : And Western powers still have more options that don't hurt their vital interests:
1) Say that Misha Saakashvili was a vile bastard who abused their goodwill
2) Reason with him and get him back to the S.Ossetian border while promising Western memberships (NATO etc.) without final border solutions (Cyprus precedent)
3) Call for all parties to disengage and offer their good offices to mediate
4) Do nothing except lots of noise
5) Get EU or UN mandate for peacekeeping
6) Huff and puff in front of Russia (don't overestimate Western dependence on Russian gas and oil. Yes, West needs it, but Russia needs hard cash for it even more. Ever heard of some other Russian exports recently? Well, mayonnaise and some Wim-Bill-Dunn juices jump into mind, that's it).

While Russia is able only of:
1) Outright war with Georgia and complete regime change
2) Pushing them back to the border, some punitive bombings, having to answer Western insistence on comprehensive and lasting solution
3) do nothing - not an option

 

[Chrom]

The Turk's support Georgia, as do Azerbaijanis. Ironically the Armenians back the Russians. This is not a sensible solution.

Turks will not supported Georgia here. Believe me. They have little in common. Azerbaijan and Armenian are irrelevant - they are largely neutral. Caucasus is a big can of worms, noone really support anyone there.


P.S. Georgia confirmed several aircrafts were destroyed on the ground by russian bombers, some casualties.

Also, seems reported by Georgians allegedly downed russian aircrafts turned to be 2 Georgian Su-25 destroyed by russian Mig-29 and SAM's when they tryed to attack russian column on the move - but this is not officially confirmed, so might be false. From same sources several Georgian UH-1 were downed.

From other source, Georgians UAV's were lost due to heavy ECM used by russians.

 

[BlackAdder]

P.S. Georgia confirmed several aircrafts were destroyed on the ground by russian bombers, some casualties.

Also, seems reported by Georgians allegedly downed russian aircrafts turned to be 2 Georgian Su-25 destroyed by russian Mig-29 and SAM's when they tryed to attack russian column on the move - but this is not officially confirmed, so might be false,

The same rule of thumb as with the front news during the Six-Day or Yom Kippur war - divide any reported number by ten, if not more.

 

[eaf-f16]

The same rule of thumb as with the front news during the Six-Day or Yom Kippur war - divide any reported number by ten, if not more.

What relevance do the Six Day War and October War have to the situation?

And why divide by ten?

Are you Georgian?

 

[-=R!T=-]

Sky is cleared...Tskhinvali: Many burned georgian tanks shoted by RPG(same situation occured during first war in Grozny but with russians...)...troops in panic...How many time it takes to calm georgians?When russians began to act (i missed this)? There r only russian aircrafts...Is georgian aviation destroyed?

 

[ASFC]

According to the AP news agency Tskhinvali is ruined, however the death toll is unconfirmed. Regardless of what happens there will be a humanitarian crisis from this. The Georgian President was just on the BBC saying he will agree to an immediate ceasefire.

According to Defensenews.com, the Pentagin has accounted for all of its military advisors (100 of them) and they are not involved in the fighting.

 

[merocaine]

According to the AP news agency Tskhinvali is ruined, however the death toll is unconfirmed. Regardless of what happens there will be a humanitarian crisis from this. The Georgian President was just on the BBC saying he will agree to an immediate ceasefire.

An immediate ceasefire...he should be so lucky. Yesterday he was crowing that most of South Ossetia had been liberated....
He gets around, this guy, he was on CNN bellowing that the Americans owed it to themselves to jump in and save his ass, as they are freedom loving people too!. He was'ent so freedom loving when he violently crushed the anti Saakashvili demonstrations in Georgia. I don't understand why he gets such a free ride in the west. The man is a dangerous spiv who has done untold damage to Georgia's future.