Caucasian Powderkeg?

[Patsfan86]

" Urkaine, a former Soviet republic like Georgia, said it might prevent Russian navy ships involved in the blockade from returning to their bases in the Crimea, an spokeswoman with Urkaine's foreign ministry said.

"This statement is new to us and it requires analysis," said Russian Defense Ministry Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn. "It is a case of a third party intervening in the process, which is quite surprising."

Russia's Navy leases the bases from Ukraine through an agreement signed in 1997 which expires in 2017."

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/10/georgia.russia/index.html

 

[eckherl]

1. Everything about Turkish navy is false.

2. Turkey officially "support Georgian integrity and ask all sides to cease fire". In other words, they have no position to speak of.

3. IF (pure fantasy, but..) Turkey land marines on Georgia it would be NOT to help Georgia against Russia but to secure oil pipeline and possible annex some part of Georgia. Generally, Turkey have a centuries old grudges against Georgia.

Kinda like the crazy rumor that the USS Enterprise is steaming into the region when in fact she is under maintenance status.

 

[roberto]

If the Russians attempt to interfere with Turkish interests we would have no choice, it certainly wouldn't surprise me if Turkey had already taken defensive precautions?

Turkey is depended on Russian/Iranian gas and large immigrants on Russian construction projects.. Moreover turkey is not supported by Iran/Saudi on Kosov issue. So Turkey is pretty much alone. Russa can melt down its economy. It is not 90s when u got arab funded F-16s. Russia will gets its way. If Georgia falls down. Expect Azerbaijan to fall in line as that country is alone.

 

[Patsfan86]

President of Georgia is live on CNN.

his country is under attack and he has time to talk to Wolf Blitzer....wow.

lol they had to cut him off mid sentence because the show was ending.

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

Turkey is depended on Russian/Iranian gas and large immigrants on Russian construction projects.. Moreover turkey is not supported by Iran/Saudi on Kosov issue. So Turkey is pretty much alone. Russa can melt down its economy. It is not 90s when u got arab funded F-16s. Russia will gets its way. If Georgia falls down. Expect Azerbaijan to fall in line as that country is alone.

hence why neither Turkey or USA will not jeopardise its energy pipe line from Baku, what you reckon we invested all that money just to walk away.

 

[roberto]

hence why neither Turkey or USA will not jeopardise its energy pipe line from Baku, what you reckon we invested all that money just to walk away.

ur simply not in ecoomic and military position to do anything. it is just matter of accepting reality. and there alot of reasons for that because if u start u will lose several times more than that.

 

[Ths]

Boarder disputes??

I don't think a boarder dispute will keep Georgia from joining NATO.

The Russians tried that ploy - without success - against the Baltic nations.

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

ur simply not in ecoomic and military position to do anything. it is just matter of accepting reality. and there alot of reasons for that because if u start u will lose several times more than that.

Apart from its nuclear weapons what do we have to fear?


No cursing and no derogatory comments to other countries

 

[PullerRommel]

Please refrain from making comments about the French.

In regards to the ceasefire is it true because i have heard of shelling coninuining.

 

[FluffyThoughts]

Strange news from SkyNews...!

Apparently Chechen militia are "destroying villages in South Ossetia". Latest snapshot that I have heard, (England are playing South Africa at the Oval, so priorities exist) and I must say that I am confused and worried.

This situation has the wholemarks of a mess. Let's all hope sensibility presides!

 

[Patsfan86]

Please refrain from making comments about the French.

In regards to the ceasefire is it true because i have heard of shelling coninuining.

TBILISI, Georgia - Russia's foreign minister is disputing Georgia's claim that its troops have pulled out of South Ossetia, the separatist region where fighting with Russian forces has killed hundreds this weekend.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080810/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_south_ossetia_97

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

I don't think a boarder dispute will keep Georgia from joining NATO.

The Russians tried that ploy - without success - against the Baltic nations.

On the contrary I think it has strengthened its position, while USA may have tolerated Russian excess within its own borders, it has now overstepped the mark. Don't get me wrong I don't buy the humanitarian bull shit the Europeans keep feeding us; however, even they won't walk away from the gas fields of central Asia.

 

[roberto]

That was 2004. 2008 is different. and 2009/2010 will even be more different. simply economic system of world changed. German/French prosperity is dependend on Russian contracts which was not the case few years ago. i would not be surprized alot of decision r reversed in next few years.

 

[FluffyThoughts]

ur simply not in ecoomic and military position to do anything. it is just matter of accepting reality. and there alot of reasons for that because if u start u will lose several times more than that.

On the Wiki article for this conflict Turkey has agreed to supply up to 50 MW of electricity to Georgia as of Friday, Turkey matters more to the West then Russia.

Let's not escalate things beyond the current mess. The UK has an interest: Putin has stolen UK-owned assets [BP-TNK], so we might take the effort to protect the Azeris and Georgians.

Let's hope push does not come to shove.... I wonder if HMS Super-B is having a hasty refit...?

 

[roberto]

On the Wiki article for this conflict Turkey has agreed to supply up to 50 MW of electricity to Georgia as of Friday, Turkey matters more to the West then Russia.

Let's not escalate things beyond the current mess. The UK has an interest: Putin has stolen UK-owned assets [BP-TNK], so we might take the effort to protect the Azeris and Georgians.

Let's hope push does not come to shove.... I wonder if HMS Super-B is having a hasty refit...?

True. Turkey matters more to the west thats why it is not part of EU and Euro that will alteast give them lower inflation. couple of months back. Azerbaijan could not stop Russian truck moving through its territory with nuclear equipment to Iran and has agreed on direct railway. (railway think over it)
the fact of matter is if Russia wants to push these small countries around. no one is going to directly confront them.

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

On the Wiki article for this conflict Turkey has agreed to supply up to 50 MW of electricity to Georgia as of Friday, Turkey matters more to the West then Russia.

Let's not escalate things beyond the current mess. The UK has an interest: Putin has stolen UK-owned assets [BP-TNK], so we might take the effort to protect the Azeris and Georgians.

Let's hope push does not come to shove.... I wonder if HMS Super-B is having a hasty refit...?

Its simple economics dude - what coal was to the 19th and oil was to the 20th, gas is to the 21st Century; and since the Afghan - Pakistan route has hit shit streak the only current (i.e. next decade or two) alternative to China/Russia monopoly is via the Caspian sea over Azerbaijan and Georgia - what you reckon the Turks/Azeri's will accept an Armenia route, and can you really imagine USA permitting a route over Iran?

 

[Patsfan86]

US Ambassador To UN: Russia Seeking Georgia Regime Change

UNITED NATIONS (AFP)--The U.S. ambassador to the U.N. on Sunday accused Moscow of seeking regime change in Georgia, citing a confidential conversation between the U.S. and Russian foreign ministers earlier in the day.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/N...r To UN: Russia Seeking Georgia Regime Change

 

[FluffyThoughts]

...you reckon the Turks/Azeri's will accept an Armenia route...?

Yes Burunsuzoglu I do. It's economics and geo-politics see.

If a land-bridge for Armenia to Ngorno-Karabkh can be exchanged for an Azeri link to Nakhchivan (and hence Turkey), then the West has three actual/potential routes for Caspian oil and gas.

I hate the Germanic concept of real-politik but the Southern Caucusus have an interest in working together. Maybe Turkey, US, UK and Iraq should polish-off the framework that was CENTO...? :

 

[FluffyThoughts]

Ok, clarification:

SkyNews breaking news:

Russia using "Chechen militia" to ethnically-cleanse Georgian villages.

No racist comment or US politics in this discussion.

 

[Type59]

Ok, clarification:

SkyNews breaking news:

Russia using "Chechen militia" to ethnically-cleanse Georgian villages.

If Chechens are involved they have been paid by Moscow. Moscow has had success in that place by buying off warlords. Similiarly US has bought off tribal leaders Anbar, Iraq. Next they will do same in Afghanistan.