Caucasian Powderkeg?

[-=R!T=-]

Not very effective but u think turks ll aid to georgians....After quarrel with US in connection with Kurds...Azeirbadjan strong depend on Russia in economics

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

I think he might have meant Ossetians with Russian citizenship?

He probably got confused between people saying that they're ethnically distinct from Georgia and that they have Russian citizenship and concluded that they are ethnic Russians.

That's not the case, though, as you pointed out.

On a more relevant note; can some one confirm that the Georgians have SA-11 or any other "double-digit" SAM's? I can't find anything (except for Wiki which we know is garbage).

Ukraine has some pretty update equipment including SA11's and there is no love lost between them and the Russians - so I'm inclined to believe the rumours they have been flooding the Caucus with offensive weapon systems.

 

[eaf-f16]

What I don't understand is why Russia has let it come to this!

The russian must know, that the outcome is a Nato membership of Georgia.
The Danish Foreign secretary said as much today. He emphasised it was in accordance with Condi.

No. Unless Georgia is willing to give up its claim to Abkhazia and S.Ossetia, it cannot join NATO. Simply, because countries with territorial disputes are not legally allowed to join NATO.

And this is putting aside other and much more significant political problems and obstacles Georgia will face after the conflict.

Couple of questions for our Russian friends:

1. How secure are Russia's line-of-communication? Could the Chechens and al-Queda undermine the progress of Russian forces within Georgia within the Chechen-Ingush region?
2. How is the naval blockade effective, considering both Turkey and Azerbaijan have land-borders with Georgia?

I'm trying to picture the relative end-games for either side. Georgia, less the Russian-occupied territories, may be seen as a better potential NATO-candidate (as would Ukraine). Also it may push Armenia into a negotiation with it's neighbours (and a land-swap with the Azeris - a sensible compromise).

So whilst Russia is currently militarily-superior, could Georgia (and the West) win long-term. Anywho, let's hope civilian loses are minimised.

I thought the Chechens are fighting against Georgian forces. Not aiding them.

Georgia could have ended up with less "Russian-occupied" territories and joined NATO by not claiming Abkhazia and S.Ossetia.

And you're wrong. Georgia will not achieve both its political and military objectives. Even in the long term this will do them no good.

 

[FluffyThoughts]

And you're wrong. Georgia will not achieve both its political and military objectives. Even in the long term this will do them no good.

Posted by: EAF-F16

You may like to take some time to review this week's The Economist. Though published hours prior to the initial assault it does cover the build-up to the conflict.

[http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11893699]

It also states the John McCain is keen to support Georgia. Could F-16s and M1A1s feature in a new Georgian army? [Turkey has autonomous production-lines for both.]

This is all geo-political speculation of course. However I don't see the West (or new-West) leaving Georgia out-in-the-cold. We made that mistake in the early-'Nineties with Afghanistan. Once bitten....

SkyNews breaking-news:

Ukraine may stop the Black-Sea Fleet returning to it's bases within the Crimea. Worrying...!

 

[-=R!T=-]

And you're wrong. Georgia will not achieve both its political and military objectives. Even in the long term this will do them no good.

Posted by: EAF-F16

You may like to take some time to review this week's The Economist. Though published hours prior to the initial assault it does cover the build-up to the conflict.

[http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11893699]

It also states the John McCain is keen to support Georgia. Could F-16s and M1A1s feature in a new Georgian army? [Turkey has autonomous production-lines for both.]

This is all geo-political speculation of course. However I don't see the West (or new-West) leaving Georgia out-in-the-cold. We made that mistake in the early-'Nineties with Afghanistan. Once bitten....

SkyNews breaking-news:

Ukraine may stop the Black-Sea Fleet returning to it's bases within the Crimea. Worrying...!

Its very interestin...how can Ukraine government stop fleet...Im ukranian and was born in The Crimea and what?(without army and population support)
I think obstacle of barrels with lard be very effective...
I observed ukranians cut tu22m3 during division of USSR army (idiotism)

 

[StevoJH]

And you're wrong. Georgia will not achieve both its political and military objectives. Even in the long term this will do them no good.

Posted by: EAF-F16

You may like to take some time to review this week's The Economist. Though published hours prior to the initial assault it does cover the build-up to the conflict.

[http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11893699]

It also states the John McCain is keen to support Georgia. Could F-16s and M1A1s feature in a new Georgian army? [Turkey has autonomous production-lines for both.]

This is all geo-political speculation of course. However I don't see the West (or new-West) leaving Georgia out-in-the-cold. We made that mistake in the early-'Nineties with Afghanistan. Once bitten....

SkyNews breaking-news:

Ukraine may stop the Black-Sea Fleet returning to it's bases within the Crimea. Worrying...!

Legally they cannot stop the Blackfleet, doubt they have the firepower either.

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

Couple of questions for our Russian friends:

1. How secure are Russia's line-of-communication? Could the Chechens and al-Queda undermine the progress of Russian forces within Georgia within the Chechen-Ingush region?
2. How is the naval blockade effective, considering both Turkey and Azerbaijan have land-borders with Georgia?

I'm trying to picture the relative end-games for either side. Georgia, less the Russian-occupied territories, may be seen as a better potential NATO-candidate (as would Ukraine). Also it may push Armenia into a negotiation with it's neighbours (and a land-swap with the Azeris - a sensible compromise).

So whilst Russia is currently militarily-superior, could Georgia (and the West) win long-term. Anywho, let's hope civilian loses are minimised.

I am a firm beliver in timing; there is no way the Georgians could have planned and executed such an audasicious plan without American backing and Turkish knowledge and or assistance, lets consider the facts, what happened a few days before:

1. American plans to imposes stringent sanctions against Iran were blocked by Moscow and China.

2. The Baku, Turkey pipe line goes up in flames, a PKK attack or convenient way of emptying the pipeline before hostilities begin without raising suspicions? Personally if I was a terrorist I would have blown up gas line next to it?

3. As I understand it there are Israeli advisers assisting the Georgian military, what you think they are not being instructed by the Pentagon?

4. Then there is 08.08.08, there is China giving the world the biggest spectacle it can which has cost them a fortune and where is the worlds attention, on some pisspot part of the world - boy that must have pissed Beijing.

So what have we got, a conflict out of the blue or well timed message from Washington letting China and Russia know who is boss and that they had better start falling in line over Iran?

 

[-=R!T=-]

I FULLY support US in plan to attack Iran....I think Russia voted against only because have cities in range of missile strike and some economical interests
And nuclear bombs in unpredictable hands is not interst of Moscow(IMHO).

 

[-=R!T=-]

Began evacuation polish english lietuvian citizens from Georgia...
92-300 georgian civilians were killed during conflict...
Georgian ports r blocked by Black Sea fleet...
Georgia caution Abhazia against takin part in conflict

 

[Feanor]

The Turkish Navy is apparently in Georgian territorial waters to prevent a Russian blockade. The Russian ships in the conflict zone are the Moskva missile cruiser and the Smetlivuiy guard ship along with three troop transport ships. It's unclear whether they have troops or are empty, but their official goal is to aid refugees. It's possible that it's an evacuation force and a defense force all in one, as earlier Georgian ships tried to approach Abkhazia but were cut off by the VMF's fire. Also Turkish Naval Infantry (marines) are ready as part of the Turkish ships and witnesses report that unmarked convoys of NATO forces are moving across the Turkish border.

In the conflict zone another attack on Ts'hinvali failed. Georgian forces are now withdrawing from Southern Ossetia across the board and this information has been confirmed by the Ministry of Defense. Georgia has finally admitted that Russia is fully in control of Ts'hinvali. One of the pilots from the two shot down Russian planes has been recovered successfully. The other has apparently been captured. Abkhazian forces are still massing at the Georgian border in preparation for retaking the Kodori Gorge.

 

[2S1]

Also Turkish Naval Infantry (marines) are ready as part of the Turkish ships and witnesses report that unmarked convoys of NATO forces are moving across the Turkish border.

Do you have any confirmed sources for these claims?

 

[eaf-f16]

The Turkish Navy is apparently in Georgian territorial waters to prevent a Russian blockade.

How exactly? By force?

 

[2S1]

Just wondering if any members here can confirm the following as plausible?

I've read on several other forums that Russian lines of communication into South Ossetia are limited to just one main road and that this could soon be shut by that timeless presence of Russian Military History - 'Old General Weather'.

Does anyone know if this is actually the case?

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

Just wondering if any members here can confirm the following as plausible?

I've read on several other forums that Russian lines of communication into South Ossetia are limited to just one main road and that this could soon be shut by that timeless presence of Russian Military History - 'Old General Weather'.

Does anyone know if this is actually the case?

worse than that - its a single bottle neck tunnel on the border with Russia, why the Georgians failed to blow the fuck out of it on the first day I have no idea?

 

[nevidimka]

I dont think that turkey would wanna get itself involved in an armed conflict with Russia. Russia did not attack it.
Plus the unidentified US spokesmen said that NATO countries will not get involved militarily.

Also, it looks like the problem is confined to S.Ossetia. It will not spread into an all out war with Georgia.

 

[eckherl]

What type of public statements are coming out of Turkey inregards to this conflict.

 

[Black Legion]

Georgia announces ceasefire

So can we say that it is actually over, Georgia is defeated when it comes to their attempt to impose control over South Ossetia.

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

I dont think that turkey would wanna get itself involved in an armed conflict with Russia. Russia did not attack it.
Plus the unidentified US spokesmen said that NATO countries will not get involved militarily.

Also, it looks like the problem is confined to S.Ossetia. It will not spread into an all out war with Georgia.

If the Russians attempt to interfere with Turkish interests we would have no choice, it certainly wouldn't surprise me if Turkey had already taken defensive precautions?

 

[Burunsuzoglu]

The Turkish Navy is apparently in Georgian territorial waters to prevent a Russian blockade. The Russian ships in the conflict zone are the Moskva missile cruiser and the Smetlivuiy guard ship along with three troop transport ships. It's unclear whether they have troops or are empty, but their official goal is to aid refugees. It's possible that it's an evacuation force and a defense force all in one, as earlier Georgian ships tried to approach Abkhazia but were cut off by the VMF's fire. Also Turkish Naval Infantry (marines) are ready as part of the Turkish ships and witnesses report that unmarked convoys of NATO forces are moving across the Turkish border.

In the conflict zone another attack on Ts'hinvali failed. Georgian forces are now withdrawing from Southern Ossetia across the board and this information has been confirmed by the Ministry of Defense. Georgia has finally admitted that Russia is fully in control of Ts'hinvali. One of the pilots from the two shot down Russian planes has been recovered successfully. The other has apparently been captured. Abkhazian forces are still massing at the Georgian border in preparation for retaking the Kodori Gorge.

can you indicate where you got your info from?

 

[Chrom]

1. Everything about Turkish navy is false.

2. Turkey officially "support Georgian integrity and ask all sides to cease fire". In other words, they have no position to speak of.

3. IF (pure fantasy, but..) Turkey land marines on Georgia it would be NOT to help Georgia against Russia but to secure oil pipeline and possible annex some part of Georgia. Generally, Turkey have a centuries old grudges against Georgia.