The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

SolarisKenzo said:

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I think it's ironic to say that Putin doesn't want to negotiate, and then simultaneously declare that European security is not up for negotiation, when that's the very thing Putin has repeatedly stated he wants to negotiate about. I think these statements are fundamentally dishonest and are about the image the writer wants to project, not about reality. Russia would love to end the war soon, if they could accomplish their goals, but they won't end the war without accomplishing their goals, unless the course of the war itself turns against them. Clearly the collective west is unwilling at this time to provide the kind of inputs that could accomplish that, it isn't even clear that this is possible without a direct entry into the war. So here we are. Europe pretends it's Putin who doesn't want to negotiate, while openly refusing to negotiate on anything but the terms they want to set.

Feanor said:

I think it's ironic to say that Putin doesn't want to negotiate, and then simultaneously declare that European security is not up for negotiation, when that's the very thing Putin has repeatedly stated he wants to negotiate about. I think these statements are fundamentally dishonest and are about the image the writer wants to project, not about reality. Russia would love to end the war soon, if they could accomplish their goals, but they won't end the war without accomplishing their goals, unless the course of the war itself turns against them. Clearly the collective west is unwilling at this time to provide the kind of inputs that could accomplish that, it isn't even clear that this is possible without a direct entry into the war. So here we are. Europe pretends it's Putin who doesn't want to negotiate, while openly refusing to negotiate on anything but the terms they want to set.

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I do not agree.

As a european, I never spare european leaders from any criticism when i feel like they deserve it because as a citizen I have not only the right but the duty to do so.
This peace deal, as the High Respresentative said in the first line, is vital.
However, the way Trump and his friend Vladimir Putin are following is profoundly wrong.
An unjust peace, a peace that will let Putin get away with a devastating war that costed hundreds of thousands of lives without paying any price will not last.

Anger is a popular sentiment in Europe, probably only less popular than antiamericanism.

Us and Russia want to humiliate Europe and Ukraine for not being totally cooperative to them, for not doing exactly what they want.
I can't but blame my fellow citizens and my leaders for that, we have chosen years of political-nothing because we were too scared to say anything against the US or Moscow.

However, if Trump and Putin choose the way of humiliation, they will not bring peace in Europe, they will simply stop a war for some time leading to a much worse one in the future.

SolarisKenzo said:

I do not agree.

As a european, I never spare european leaders from any criticism when i feel like they deserve it because as a citizen I have not only the right but the duty to do so.
This peace deal, as the High Respresentative said in the first line, is vital.
However, the way Trump and his friend Vladimir Putin are following is profoundly wrong.
An unjust peace, a peace that will let Putin get away with a devastating war that costed hundreds of thousands of lives without paying any price will not last.

Anger is a popular sentiment in Europe, probably only less popular than antiamericanism.

Us and Russia want to humiliate Europe and Ukraine for not being totally cooperative to them, for not doing exactly what they want.
I can't but blame my fellow citizens and my leaders for that, we have chosen years of political-nothing because we were too scared to say anything against the US or Moscow.

However, if Trump and Putin choose the way of humiliation, they will not bring peace in Europe, they will simply stop a war for some time leading to a much worse one in the future.

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None of this addresses my point. If she had said "We don't want negotiations because Ukraine has nothing to negotiate, with, and anyways there's nothing to negotiate over. Russia can withdraw from the recognized internationally territory of Ukraine or Europe will support Ukraine until victory or until Ukraine itself decides they like the peace deal that's on the table", it would have been a clear, consistent, and honest statement. Instead she's claiming it's Putin that doesn't want to negotiate. A statement that's completely untrue. She doesn't say "Putin's peace deal is unjust, we want a peace based on justice and Putin won't negotiate based on justice". She said "Russia has no intention of ending this war any time soon" and "Putin continues to drag out negotiations and hopes he gets away with it". Her end statement is even sillier. The root cause of the war in fact is Russian imperialism. But the European security architecture has failed to deal with Russian imperialism. So there clearly is an imbalance in European security architecture. It's not imaginary.

I stand by my original assessment. This isn't an honest take on the situation, it's an attempt to put out a certain message that the writer finds convenient. Stating things as they really are would be uncomfortable because it would invite a discussion of European commitments to Ukraine and whether they are even remotely enough to move the needle, in light of a rejection of Putin's peace proposals, and negotiations based on the realities of the war. So instead she pretends it's Putin that won't negotiate.

What is a just peace?




The entire process has been about trying to convince Trump that Putin is lying (what is he lying about?), doesn’t want to end the war (do they?), and can’t be trusted, while Putin stating his position that hasn’t changed much since the beginning (after he raised the stakes). Everyone declaring a win after every meeting or conversation, the pendulum swings back and so it goes on and so does the war.



In reality, no one but Trump wants this to end until their (near) maximalist goals are accepted and wants to stall the process, as long as they do not alienate Trump. I think Putin cares a lot less about the latter, he just sees Trump as useful in convincing the other side to accept his position precisely because they care very much about that very latter.

But (I don’t know if this info is correct as I don’t trust this outlet):



Macron and Merz keep insisting on a ceasefire, but no one else seemed to do so. And good luck with this idea (or he is just trolling):

KipPotapych said:

But (I don’t know if this info is correct as I don’t trust this outlet):

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This is confirmed by the RU official statement (in Russian):



This is the correct perspective:



This is a good question (and a fair response) provided Kallas’ statement conveniently cited above:



Funny, though not many are probably familiar with the two individuals cited above, but they are renowned economists asking these questions.


This is just funny:

One more post from me, a thought…

A lot of talk about security guarantees. The desire appears to be Article 5 “like” if not NATO membership. A couple of things to note here. One is that there are no obligations for anyone to go to war with anyone if a member is attacked, but to provide assistance as they see fit. Second, there has been a lot of talk, and not only under Trump’s presidency, but for the past few years that Russia will attack NATO members (Baltics or even Poland) and no one will come for help, the US in particular. So if these concerns exist where Russia does not have much strategic interests or means to accomplish the perceived goals and Article 5 does not guarantee “not abandonment” (for instance, the response could be the same as the response to the ongoing Russian invasion), what is stopping Russia accepting these guarantees without the NATO-member troops present in Ukraine? Furthermore, why does the reasoning seem to suggest that Ukraine will be safe if such guarantees are provided? I do not see how the situation would be much different. Probability of anyone going to war with Russia if it decides to invade Ukraine again post settlement is not going to be much higher than it is now, in my opinion, guarantees or not. The expected support should be considered to be what is today and no more.

Another thought… The best security guarantee for Ukraine is its own army and means to defend. They cannot sustainably defend today with the resources they have at their disposal (even against “depleted” Russia, with the majority of forces “poorly” trained). I feel like I already discussed this, perhaps. There is no realistic possibility for them to sustain the current level of military involvement and investment into their MIC post settlement as it is simply unaffordable. And I don’t mean just something they cannot afford, but it is literally impossible. On this note, consider Ukraine prewar (regardless where you think he timeline begins), where it had significantly stronger economy, operating energy infrastructure, population 25% higher and significantly younger, population more willing (or unwilling?), etc, and the level of investment it could afford developing its own capabilities and military. Expecting allies pouring in with billions of dollars/euros is not rational (see the expectations regarding this war as a starting reference and Konrad Muzyka’s interview I cited earlier). Will finish here as I have other things to attend to at the moment.

KipPotapych said:

[…]but he is a great lad and out of his respect for his friend Donald[…]

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On that ^ note:

SolarisKenzo said:

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Does she mentions how soon Zelenski (and Boris) wanted to end this war? Since 2022, maybe?
Ukraine launched counterattacks, do they count for anything? Can Ukraine attack Kursk again?
You start a war to achieve certain goals, to stop the war before achieving those goals would be... stupid; unless you are forced to. Ukraine is fighting a war to achieve... what goals? How close is Ukraine to achieve those goals, closer than Russia?
US (and Boris) holds the power to force Ukraine to negotiate seriously.
Any peace is sustainable for Russia and Ukraine.
EU cares about good an evil (agression?)... this time.
Ukraine, on the other hand, will continue this war until...
Europe will continue to back Ukraine to the last Ukrainian soldier.
Is Russian security up for negotiation? (Russian security according to Russia , not to Kallas.)
The real root... according to Kallas or to Russia? I would say that NATO has something to do with the "real root".

Does Kallas have any interest in making clear that in a war between two countries, two opinions (at least) have to be accounted for? Does she thinks (anyone else?) that those two opinions are NATO/EU and Ukraine?

BTW, I am European too; and I think Russians are Europeans too. US has already humiliated Europe, tariffs and whatever else you may think of. Yes, the future will be that future, always that future and only that future; because if not, it doesn't work for your (Kallas?) story.

Question: If "Europe" demands a cease fire as a pre-condition and Russia disagrees... Ukraine will never get any peace talks. Am I missing something?

Trump really has his photo moment, all come to him like students being lectures.

Feanor said:

I think it's ironic to say that Putin doesn't want to negotiate, and then simultaneously declare that European security is not up for negotiation, when that's the very thing Putin has repeatedly stated he wants to negotiate about. I think these statements are fundamentally dishonest and are about the image the writer wants to project, not about reality. Russia would love to end the war soon, if they could accomplish their goals, but they won't end the war without accomplishing their goals, unless the course of the war itself turns against them. Clearly the collective west is unwilling at this time to provide the kind of inputs that could accomplish that, it isn't even clear that this is possible without a direct entry into the war. So here we are. Europe pretends it's Putin who doesn't want to negotiate, while openly refusing to negotiate on anything but the terms they want to set.

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Or both sides simply have "redlines" and THAT'S what needs to be negotiated about ?

Trump really has his photo moment, all come to him like students being lectures.

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Trump may think that. In reality some adult politicians listen to he nonsense of a 6 year old kid with the most powerful army of the world.
If Zelenskij would get an M1 tank for every lie by trump, they wold have problems getting the amount of kerosine needed to move the tanks.

KipPotapych said:

Ukraine’s new cruise missile with the range of 3,000 km and a 1-tonne warhead.

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Allegedly, a combat use of the new Flamingo missile (video in the embedded tweet below):

Peace negotiations are always complex. Usually it only happens when one side or the other is in a clearly advantageous position. Really what we have in Ukraine is mostly a stalemate with a slight advantage to the Russian side.

Is it cynical to believe that that there is some positioning by someone to get the Nobel Peace Prize for himself

seaspear said:

Is it cynical to believe that that there is some positioning by someone to get the Nobel Peace Prize for himself

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I think cynical is quite an understatement.

A Russian Shahed Drone crashed 120 km behind the Polish Border.


Some says it is a provocation, but it was clearly a misled Shahed. So I think there will be a protest note to Moscow and that´s it.

Update.

Sumy area.

Ukraine has recaptured the village of Varachino, and it appears Russia has either failed to consolidate or has pulled back from the outskirts of Miropol'ye.


Russian National Guard finished off a Bradley in Sumy region.


Russian Forpost-RU strikes on allegedly Ukraine's 116th TerDefBde in the village of Obody. This is Forpost-RU at work. UCAVs played a notable role in Russian strikes within Kursk region and the Sumy border area, possibly due to a reluctance of Ukraine to commit scarce SAM assets to risky forward positions, but their use appears to have scaled back now that fighting has shifted into Sumy.


Russian self-propelled shed evacuating a destroyed Leo-2A6 in Kursk region.


Russia's 34th MRBde training in Kursk region. Note the shiny new uniforms and AK-12 rifles, but the only vehicle we see is a lonely MRAP Z-STS.


It appears Ukraine hit the vehicle of Russian general Esedulla Abachev, in Kursk region. The general is wounded, how badly is unclear. Russian official sources confirm.


Kharkov area.

We have more confirmation of Russian presence in the Goptovka border crossing point, Ukraine.


Russian 79th Rocket Artillery firing their Tornado-S (or Smerch) in the Kharkov area.


Russian Molniya-2 operations in the Kharkov area.


Russia hit the Golden Coast hotel south of Volchansk.


Russian T-72B3M mod. '24 in the Kharkov area with an interesting roof cage not seen before.


Kupyansk area.

East of the Oskol it appears Ukraine has begun a large scale withdrawal, pulling back towards Petropavlovka. It's unclear if this is due to troops being pulled towards Pokrovsk, or because Russia's push into Kupyansk threatens logistics across the bridge there. Inside Kupyansk itself Russian forces have advanced reaching the Kuptakh train station from the north-west, and taken the Spartak stadium from the north. Moskovka is fully under Russian control with Russian infantry elements penetrating to Sobolevka.


Russian drone strikes the insides of a 2S1 howitzer, through the open back door. It appears to be abandoned, suggesting it may be knocked out and abandoned by the crew.


Ukrainian BTS-4 getting hit near Kurilovka, this is the right shore of the Oskol.


Russian TOS-1 strikes on Khatnoe, south-west of Melovoe.


Oskol front.

Russian forces have taken Zeleniy Gay, and there some position back and forth north-west of it.


In the Torskoe area back and forth fighting continues in Redkodub with some Ukrainian counter-attacks. Russian forces meanwhile have advanced southward pushing forward in Srednee and Shandrygolovoe and the fields east of them. Torskoe is almost fully under Russian control, and Russian forces are across the Zherebets in another spot, entering Zarechnoe.


Russian drone strikes take out 3 Ukrainian cars, being used as either transport or logistics, near Krasniy Liman.


Russian TOS-1A fires in the Krasniy Liman area.


Seversk salient.

Russian forces have taken most of Serebryanka, with only the western outskirts in no-man's land. Meanwhile in the woods northward Ukrainian forces are withdrawing due to Russian advances along their flanks, and a Russian attack southward threatening to cut them off. Finally south-west of Verkhnekamyanskoe Russian forces have fully secured Novoselka and the area immediately west of it.


Russian drone strikes either an M114 howitzer or a convincing decoy in a well-built position, near Serebryanka.


Konstantinovka area.

I'm going to discontinue Chasov Yar as an area to talk about since fighting has fairly firmly moved west of it, and at this point these forces are approaching Konstantinovka.

From the west, Russian forces have taken half of Rusin Yar. In the East Russian forces have taken Predtechino and some positions around it, and are now approaching Konstantinovka proper. North-east of Konstantinovka, south-west of Maiskoe, Russian forces continue to advance through the fields. South of Konstantinovka Russian forces continue to gain ground in Katerinovka and near Aleksandro-Shul'gino. Scherbinovka is now fully under Russian control. North of Toretsk Russian forces have pushed towards the reservoir and are threatening Ukrainian forces south of it with complete encirclement.


Russian strike on allegedly a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer near Konstantinovka. We can't really make out what they hit, but it does appear to be something firing prior to the Russian strike.


Russian artillery hitting Kleban-byk.


Russian FAB-3000 strike on a bridge near Konstantinovka and on Konstantinovka itself, allegedly a Ukrainian staging area. Also some Russian FAB-500 strikes on Konstantinovka.


Russian Shaheds laying mines on the road from Konstantinovka towards Kramatorsk.


Russia hit Druzhkovka with multiple strikes. With Konstantinovka the next front line city, Druzhkovka is now the near-rear logistics hub.

Pokrovsk area.

A major Russian breakthrough took place north-ward out of the northern pincer. This breakthrough seems to have been carried out predominantly by Russia's 132nd MRBde. The breakthrough consisted of many small infantry groups that penetrated through sparsely manned Ukrainian lines. It's unclear if this was intended or if it just worked out this way. Ukraine rushed man reserves, counter-attacking, and pushing Russian forces back into a smaller perimeter. After the Ukrainian counter-attak Russian forces resumed some advances, pushing north-east out of Kucherov Yar. Currently Russian forces appear to be holding Kucherov Yar, and a narrow salient from there down to the Nikanorovka and Mayak area. Russia has also pushed northwards near Poltavka, beginning a flanking movement around Shakhovo. Well north of the furthest reported Russian advances there is footage of Russian forces getting hit in Petrovka. However there's no confirmation of any Russian consolidation and it seems unlikely this was more than a passing episode. In Rodinskoe the town remains contested, and both of the large refuse mounds are firmly under Russian control. On the western flank of Pokrovsk Russian forces took the southern half of Udachnoe. South of Pokrovsk and in the town itself it appears Ukrainian forces have re-established their lines, and pushed Russian forces back to the outskirts. They've re-entered Leontovichi and Troyanda is now in the grey zone. Russian forces have advanced in Chunishino. I suspect this is, at least for now, the end of Russian infiltration in Pokrovsk. Likely the fight will be Russian chewing through newly deployed Ukrainian units north of the town, after which they will force a Ukrainian withdrawal.

Военный Осведомитель

Ukrainian BMP-1TS gets hit near Novoekonomichnoe. The type remains rare, but it keeps surfacing here and there suggesting some sort of low rate production.


Ukrainian infantry loading into a pickup got hit by a Russian drone.


Russia has carried out a series of strikes in support of the breakthrough, they hit Dobropol'ye, and Belozerskoe.


Russian Shahed strike on Zolotoy Kolodez. I think this is due to a shortage of FPV drone support in the deeper part of the breakthrough.


Russian FAB strikes near Rodinskoe, a FAB-3000 strike in Mirnograd, and LMUR strike in nearby Antonovka.


Ukrainian artillery hit the eastern outskirts of Rodinskoe, confirming at least some Russian presence.


Russian drones hunt Ukrainian logistics inside a net tunnel in the Pokrovsk area.


An interesting Russian drone was seen near Pokrovsk. Instead of an RPG warhead, it's flying around with a whole RPG-26, presumably able to fire it and then return to base.


Russian tank in the Pokrovsk area. I think it's a T-72B3 variant.


Ukrainian Leo-2A4 in Pokrovsk.


Battle damage in Dobropol'ye from Russian strikes.


Dnepropetrovsk axis.

There are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces taking Voronoe, and of Ukrainian forces counter-attacking back across the border near Orekhovo. Confirmation of both is lacking.

Russia hits Ukrainian forces allegedly performing a troop rotation in the Dnepropetrovsk-Donetsk region border area.


Russian strikes on a T-64BV with a robust drone cage somewhere in the Dnepropetrovsk border area.


Russia hit a Ukrainian checkpoint on the highway Pokrovsk-Pavlograd, near Mezhevoe.


Russia has started hunting Ukrainian logistics in the corridor from Muravka to Novopavlovka.


Russian FAB strikes on Podgavrilovka, Dnepropetrovsk region.


Russia hits an Oshkosh FMTV near Novopavlovka.


Russian strike on what appears to be Caesar howitzer in Dnepropetrovsk region. I'm putting it in this category but at this point the strike could have come in the Velikaya Novoselka area, or from the western flank of the Pokrovsk area.


Russian Shahed drones are being used to lay mines on the roads in eastern Dnepropetrovsk region.


Velikaya Novoselka area.

Russian forces have expanded their area of control north of Temirovka and advanced in a narrow salient westward south of Temirovka. North of Malievka Russian forces pushed towards Yanvarskoe and have entered the outskirts. On the other hand dead west of Temirovka a Ukrainian counter-attack has pushed Russian forces back from Obratnoe, into Temirovka. Russian forces are also creeping up on Kamyshevakha. All of Voskresenka is also under Russian control, with Russian forces inching forward. There's some Russian presence in Novoegorovka, north of Temirovka, but it's not confirmed yet. South of the Volchya and east of the Volchya (the river bends sharply southward here) Russia has pushed dramatically forward capturing Iskra and Aleksandrograd. Ukraine then counter-attacked recapturing Iskra. However Ukraine has mostly been pushed across the Volchya here.


Russian strikes around Aleksandrograd. They take out an MBT and hit an MRAP.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian vehicle, allegedly an RM-70 MLRS.


Russian FAB strikes on Iskra, Dnepropetrovsk border area. There's a river crossing there, that's likely the cause of all the attention.


Russian FAB-3000 strike on Novoselkovka, Dnepropetrovsk region. Target was allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.