United States Defense Thread

Just dropping in again to share an interesting discussion in relation to how the USA can share military technology with key allies:

Roundtable on AUKUS and Arms Exports Modernization - YouTube

Includes AUKUS as well as input from Gregory Kausner - (Anduril Head of Global Defense).
Also discusses various supply chain issues that are currently problematic.

Apologies if already posted...

I guess the money wasted on figuring out where waist measurements occur explains why complex military procurements are even more wasteful.

A discussion about the importance of S-band radar and the possibility of degradation of performance by allowing commercial players access to part of the spectrum. I am sure big tech donors are expecting a portion of the spectrum.

Trouble Ahead for Military Radars at S-Band | RealClearDefense

This is a rather interesting article examining the US pivot from Asia to Europe in the 1950s as the US considered the Russian threat and Euro stability as more important overall. The article suggests a similar Europe to Asia pivot by neutralising the Ukraine situation thus allowing the US to focus on Asia-Pacific. It would require Ukrainian compromise and firm commitment from Europe wrt economic and military aid after a peace agreement. The big difference however is the relative threats in both regions today. The Asia-Pacific and Russian threats were not equal in the 1950s whereas today both are dangerous albeit China is a bigger problem. Clearly it is in China's interest to keep the US and Western Europe consuming military resources in Ukraine.

The US Pivot to Asia Depends on Peace in Ukraine – The Diplomat

John Fedup said:

allowing commercial players access to part of the spectrum.

Click to expand...

My incredibly nuanced and multi-faceted opinion on the matter:

How will Trump handle the S-band spectrum access?

A Secure it for the US military

B Allow his tech buddies access for a piece of the action?

Why Donald Trump Must Protect S-Band Radar Spectrum for U.S. Defense - 19FortyFive

With regards to S band radar it does have a legitimate use for civilian applications being able to detect weather patterns other radars cant, storms beyond storms , for airports directing passenger aircraft this would be useful for safety

Trump has proposed cutting U.S. Defense spending in half.
No wonder he wants N.A.T.O. members to increase spending to 5% of G.D.P.!
Says once Ukraine and Middle East sorted he will look at slashing defence spending in negotiation with Russia and China.
Not sure how this will be received in the House and Senate?
Though would certainly go a long way to solving the Deficit problem.
Also has stated he doesn't want to spend any more money on Nuclear weapons.
WSJ is describing the plan as "Peace through Weakness.".
Not sure this is any sort of negotiating tactic either.
Think he is aiming for this to be one of the main achievements of his presidency.

The US is in an interesting situation

MARKMILES77 said:

Trump has proposed cutting U.S. Defense spending in half.
No wonder he wants N.A.T.O. members to increase spending to 5% of G.D.P.!
Says once Ukraine and Middle East sorted he will look at slashing defence spending in negotiation with Russia and China.
Not sure how this will be received in the House and Senate?
Though would certainly go a long way to solving the Deficit problem.
Also has stated he doesn't want to spend any more money on Nuclear weapons.
WSJ is describing the plan as "Peace through Weakness.".
Not sure this is any sort of negotiating tactic either.
Think he is aiming for this to be one of the main achievements of his presidency.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/13/defense-stocks-drop-after-trump-says-defense-spending-could-be-halved.html

https://www.axios.com/2025/02/13/trump-china-russia-military-spending

Click to expand...

Now that the true state of Russia's military has been revealed to the world I don't see them giving up their nukes. China will also want to retain the capability of invading Taiwan. It also has other regional and global ambitions. I think both these countries are likely to interpret America disengaging their military from Europe and Asia as a sign of weakness.

Also we have other emerging powers to consider if the Americans were to withdraw from the region. Would India be willing to reduce its armed forces and give up its Nukes? What about Pakistan or North Korea? Without a US presence will we see Japan start to arm itself to the back teeth? What would South Korea think about this.

There are no quick fixes or easy exit strategies for any of this.

Thinking of South Korea it would not come a surprise if President Trump cancelled future joint exercise's with South Korea

On italian forum the main topic of US disengagment is nuclear deterrence and how to coordinate the EU to reach it.
If the US pulls out from the pacific in a style similar to Splendid isolation - Wikipedia.

I expect SK and JAP to get nukes in a very very short term period. In 2004 papers mentioned by Wikipedia mention 1yr term to develop initial nuclear capabilities for Japan.

Consider this very good documentary on how the SK defense industry started.

We would see the same in nuclear taste.

76mmGuns said:

Government Fires Specialists Without Realizing They Were in Charge of Nuclear Bombs, Then Panics and Tries to Rehire Them

Paging Dr. Strangelove We've all made mistakes before. Maybe we did something in the heat of the moment, or said something we couldn't take back. Point is, it happens, and that's okay — because however bad our mistakes were, at least they didn't spell certain doom for the entire human race. Elon...

sg.yahoo.com

The US is in an interesting situation

Click to expand...

I would suggest “interesting” be replaced with a 4 letter word starting with “s”.

Confirmation from the Washington Post that Trump is drawing up plans to absolutely smash the US defence budget.
How will the money be saved?
Unless Congress stops him will need to cancel whole programmes and disband many units.
At the scale he is proposing making minor cuts here and there or reducing the numbers of equipment purchased will not generate the savings required.
Possibilities?
Just looking at the Airforce:
-Scrap B21 programme
-Scrap KC-46 buy
-Cancel Wedgetail programme
-Scale back F-35 buy.
-Abandon development of a sixth generation fighter
-Immediately retire all A10s.
-Retire all F-22s
-Scale back purchases of all weapons AMRAAM, SDB, JASSM etc.
And even that wont be enough for Airforce let alone the other Services!

Eliminate the USMC entirely maybe?
This is crazy stuff but if he goes through with this plan even more radical cuts will be required to achieve the savings necessary.

By the end of the 5 years, U.S. Defence spending would be about $340 Billion per year less than it is Today!

U.S. DOD statement.
This could trigger a BIG fight with Congress.

Rather then stop most of defense procurement programs, probably US budget save come by reducing half of US overseas bases. Mostly in Europe. Perhaps this is why Trump in hurry to make deal with Putin.

Russia defense budget is miniscule compare to US, but their derelict MIC can still produce artillery shells and rockets even missiles comparable even slightly higher than US produce. Perhaps that's also that Elon DOGE try to hammer. Outside democrats driven projects.

Trump's talking about a 50% cut in US defence spending. Cutting half of US overseas bases would barely scratch the surface of that. It'd require huge reductions in manpower & equipment.

I believe he says that he will cut 50% of defense budget 'if' Russia and China follow the same. That's why he like to meet Putin and Xi about it. I saw his interview that mentioned this, and he clearly says the condition to do it if China and Russia make a deals to follow.

He wants to meet Putin and Xi to discuss nuclear reduction which then follow by huge reduction of defense budgets from each sides. So that 50% target reduction I believe have condition on it.

While that USD 50 bio, I believe can still be by targeting certain programs. 'Securing our own border's as priorities indicating he wants to reduce overseas engagement. That's can do the trick of that 50 bio target cuts

50% off current Russian spending would be easy if Ukraine surrenders. Trump's saying he'd see that as something for the USA to reciprocate? Is that the deal "I'll give you victory over Ukraine so I can proclaim a great deal to cut military spending"? Good luck with getting Xi to agree - unless he can miraculously lose many billions from the budget while not cutting numbers of troops & weapons.

Remember, Trump makes up numbers (e.g. $400 billion in US aid to Ukraine, which is well over twice what's been promised so far, let alone what's been handed over), & is probably comfortable with others making up numbers when it suits him. He doesn't care about the reality of Russian or Chinese cuts.