Venezuela vs Netherlands

K

kinggodzilla87

New Member
Venezuela vs Netherlands

Some time ago Chavez was [mostly when oil prices rise] again talking tough about taking the dutch islands of Aruba, Bonaire and curacao, while he was afraid the US would use this islands as a bridge to invade his country.
The dutch minister of defense was resolute that that would be a joke since the royal navy is much more advanced then their venezuelan counterpart.
http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/20073805022.asp


What to yall make of this :unknown :unknown
 
Tasman

Tasman

Ship Watcher
Verified Defense Pro
kinggodzilla87 said:
Venezuela vs Netherlands

Some time ago Chavez was [mostly when oil prices rise] again talking tough about taking the dutch islands of Aruba, Bonaire and curacao, while he was afraid the US would use this islands as a bridge to invade his country.
The dutch minister of defense was resolute that that would be a joke since the royal navy is much more advanced then their venezuelan counterpart.
http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/20073805022.asp


What to yall make of this :unknown :unknown
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I think the Dutch would need to stop the seizure of these islands before it happened. Once an occupying force is in place the Dutch navy lacks the carriers that the UK needed to dislodge Argentina from the Falklands. Without carriers I think it would be almost impossible to retake the islands.

To ensure this I think the present garrison would need to be increased, particularly the air force contribution which, IMO, would need to increase from the present F16 flight to a full squadron, so that it could undertake both air defence and strike operations. A permanent submarine presence would also be essential IMO.

Cheers
 
R

Rich

Member
Such a move would be right on par with the historical South American Caudillo, or military strongman. Made even more possible by the presence of oil in the place, a resource that could protect Venezuela from the inevitable economic sanctions placed on it. Most of all if there was a great loss of life in the OP.

There is one large problem with Chavy baby pulling his best shot. We have a Yank military presence on Aruba and Curacao as well as various agreements and rights to bases throughout the region and if he invaded these Islands, killed Yanks and our NATO allies, he would probably trigger the very thing he says he fears in the first place.

Tho we all know better, and that he doesn't really fear a US invasion. He just looks at those offshore islands the same way the Argentine Generals looked at the Falklands and there is nothing like a splendid little war to give the Caudillo the populist love he craves.

So the Dutch have a extremely strong option and that is to continue allowing Yanks to use these Islands for Military and Intelligence purposes. I guess the folks at Strategy page missed all this http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cach...ba+military+presence&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=3&gl=us

I think Chavez would have a real problem if he pulled this stunt.
 
S

swerve

Super Moderator
Tasman said:
I think the Dutch would need to stop the seizure of these islands before it happened. Once an occupying force is in place the Dutch navy lacks the carriers that the UK needed to dislodge Argentina from the Falklands. Without carriers I think it would be almost impossible to retake the islands....

Cheers
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Unlike the Falklands, Aruba, Bonaire & Curacao aren't in the middle of nowhere. There are other islands relatively (not very) nearby, associated with or parts of countries allied to the Netherlands. AB&C are too far south to be covered by NATO, but there are also the WEU & the EU to consider. And would Chavez dare Sint Maarten? Unlikely, for all sorts of reasons, & if not, the Dutch would still have a local base. Not close enough to provide useful air cover over AB&C, but much, much closer than anywhere except Argentina is to the Falklands.

Hey! The Dutch could knock off Isla de Aves in retaliation. :D
 
Tasman

Tasman

Ship Watcher
Verified Defense Pro
Rich said:
Such a move would be right on par with the historical South American Caudillo, or military strongman. Made even more possible by the presence of oil in the place, a resource that could protect Venezuela from the inevitable economic sanctions placed on it. Most of all if there was a great loss of life in the OP.

There is one large problem with Chavy baby pulling his best shot. We have a Yank military presence on Aruba and Curacao as well as various agreements and rights to bases throughout the region and if he invaded these Islands, killed Yanks and our NATO allies, he would probably trigger the very thing he says he fears in the first place.

Tho we all know better, and that he doesn't really fear a US invasion. He just looks at those offshore islands the same way the Argentine Generals looked at the Falklands and there is nothing like a splendid little war to give the Caudillo the populist love he craves.

So the Dutch have a extremely strong option and that is to continue allowing Yanks to use these Islands for Military and Intelligence purposes. I guess the folks at Strategy page missed all this http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cach...ba+military+presence&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=3&gl=us

I think Chavez would have a real problem if he pulled this stunt.
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Very good points Rich. It would certainly be a very risky strategy for Cavez to follow.

Mind you, I still think it would be prudent for the Dutch to maintain a 'known' permanent submarine presence in these waters to act as a further deterrent.

Cheers
 
E

eckherl

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
kinggodzilla87 said:
Venezuela vs Netherlands

Some time ago Chavez was [mostly when oil prices rise] again talking tough about taking the dutch islands of Aruba, Bonaire and curacao, while he was afraid the US would use this islands as a bridge to invade his country.
The dutch minister of defense was resolute that that would be a joke since the royal navy is much more advanced then their venezuelan counterpart.
http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/20073805022.asp


What to yall make of this :unknown :unknown
Click to expand...
We do not need these islands, we could take Venezuela out without them and if he pulled such a stupid stunt that would give us the excuse needed to destroy his military and have him over thrown. And he wonders why he can`t get a security seat at the UN.
 
K

kinggodzilla87

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  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #7
eckherl said:
We do not need these islands, we could take Venezuela out without them and if he pulled such a stupid stunt that would give us the excuse needed to destroy his military and have him over thrown. And he wonders why he can`t get a security seat at the UN.
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lol
but this is about Venezuela vs Netherlands not Venezuela vs USA ok
 
W

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Do you think the US would not help the dutch forces with anything they need if they ask for it?
Remember we are talking aout the sane dutches which are in Iraq and A-stan and are a close US ally due to NATO.
Not to talk of the other NATO/EU countries backing them up if asked for.
 
K

kinggodzilla87

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  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #9
Waylander said:
Do you think the US would not help the dutch forces with anything they need if they ask for it?
Remember we are talking aout the sane dutches which are in Iraq and A-stan and are a close US ally due to NATO.
Not to talk of the other NATO/EU countries backing them up if asked for.
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No I don’t think that however the Dutch would be the Primary participant in this not the US We would only be in support ...even if that’s support is a CBG or CSG with B-52s , B-2, B-1bs, hell maybe some F-22s:eek:nfloorl:
 
K

kinggodzilla87

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  • #13
eckherl said:
Okay - I would give it to the Dutch, they have more experience in naval and operating combat aircraft due to working with in the NATO alliance. Their combat land element is not too shabby either.
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O got any Pics of what they Got?
 
D

Distiller

New Member
Venezuela has four modified Kojoonbong LSTs, Willemstad is 10 hours out of Caracas, or under 3 hours from the closest point of the South American mainland. Vanezuela has about 4000 to 4500 shooters in their Marine Corps, but the LSTs can only lift like 200. So if Venezuela manages to get 600 Marines plus a few IFV as initial assault force they are good. Surface combatant support and air cover would be sufficient for a suprise attack.


The Netherlands have two rifle companies stationed on the ABC islands. A few hours fight, maybe best employed as a guerilla and intelligence force after an enemy landing. But with warning two Doormans and a Walrus should be sufficient to counter a potential threat. (Also the Netherlands have nothing to show in the airborne anti-ship department and ISR assets are non-existing. But then they are NATO...).

Basically Venezuela could take the islands, but not hold it for more than a few month, and the political and economical price would be in no relationship to what could be gained (all those offshore account holders would be really pissed off!). And even Caudillios have to think about economics.
 
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R

Rich

Member
OK, if the thing happened now? Like right now? Between just the two countries?? "even tho it wouldn't be just the two countries"? http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:NOzp_yykFMEJ:www.southcom.mil/apps/home
http://www.antiwar.com/ips/marquez.php?articleid=8813

But the largest military exercise in the Caribbean, taking place throughout April and May, is "Operation Partnership of the Americas," for which the George Washington aircraft carrier strike group – which includes roughly 6,500 sailors, a 60-plane air wing, and three smaller warships – has been deployed to the region.

Ports of call will include the Dutch islands 50 km off the coast of Venezuela. The operation is organized by the Miami-based U.S. Southern Command, which oversees military activities in Latin America, and its objective, according to U.S. Navy officials, is "to support maritime security in the area."

Some observers, however, believe that the operation has been launched as "a warning to Cuba and Venezuela."

Nicolás Maduro, the speaker of the Venezuelan legislature
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But just the two countries?? I'd say its a question of which nations is more incapable then the other. At this point in time I would have to say Venezuela is incapable of launching a successful amphib assault on the Islands. They have a small unproven navy, have had a lot of Political flareups in their army "Chavez doesn't trust them", much of their F-16 force is down for lack spare parts, and the overall performance of the airforce is questionable.

I'd say at this point in time a reinforced Dutch F-16 deployment, a few submarines and frigates, and Dutch surveillance/EW/ASW assets, would be enough to stop an invasion.


All this will one day change however if Chavez has his way. He is intent on better radars, a bigger airforce with more strike power, a better navy, and better training. He has already sent many army personnel to Cuba for training. So "maybe" in the future they will be a credible threat to pull all this off but certainly not today, and probably not tomorrow. There is plenty of reasons to believe the threat of their military, and military buildups, are being overblown. http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=3046

Its ridiculous to call Venezuela the next regional super-power. They have a long, long ways to go. Just buying the arms is the easy part.
 
R

regstrup

Member
swerve said:
And would Chavez dare Sint Maarten? Unlikely, for all sorts of reasons, & if not, the Dutch would still have a local base.
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If Chavez would dare to take Sint Maarten, he would be an idiot. The island of Sint Maarten (Saint Martin in french) is divided between the Netherlands and France, so he would not only go to war with the Dutch but also the french :D

Even though he would only invade the Dutch part of the island, this would be totally unacceptable to France, who would have to intervene with military force.
 
S

swerve

Super Moderator
Distiller said:
Venezuela has four modified Kojoonbong LSTs, Willemstad is 10 hours out of Caracas, or under 3 hours from the closest point of the South American mainland. Vanezuela has about 4000 to 4500 shooters in their Marine Corps, but the LSTs can only lift like 200. So if Venezuela manages to get 600 Marines plus a few IFV as initial assault force they are good. Surface combatant support and air cover would be sufficient for a suprise attack.


The Netherlands have two rifle companies stationed on the ABC islands. A few hours fight, maybe best employed as a guerilla and intelligence force after an enemy landing. But with warning two Doormans and a Walrus should be sufficient to counter a potential threat. (Also the Netherlands have nothing to show in the airborne anti-ship department and ISR assets are non-existing. But then they are NATO...).

Basically Venezuela could take the islands, but not hold it for more than a few month, and the political and economical price would be in no relationship to what could be gained (all those offshore account holders would be really pissed off!). And even Caudillios have to think about economics.
Click to expand...
Those ships can carry 200 troops for extended periods. For a short lift, such as that being discussed, they could carry more. They're over 4000 tons full load.

The Netherlands is NATO, but the islands are out of the NATO area, like the Falklands. Any assistance from NATO allies would therefore be entirely at their discretion: the Dutch couldn't invoke the treaty. But I'd be surprised if some of them didn't exercise that discretion in favour of the Netherlands. France & the UK would probably be supportive, for their own reasons.
 
D

Distiller

New Member
I'm not so optimistic about a larger numbers of troops lifted. They'd need a good number of vehicles and supplies with them. In case they'd pull such a stunt the sea around Venezuela would become poisonous quite fast, wouldn't bet to get anything heavy accross after a few days, and wouldn't bet on having any assets to get it accross ...

After the initial assault on Curacao and Aruba (which I think they'd do to justify the whole show -- the U.S. presence on both islands) they'd need to take Bonaire in a second wave that could be done with other surface vessels, couple of coastguard cutters would be enough (infrastructure there is bad, not a suitable base for a counter-attack). Don't know about the positions of the Hollandish Marine Infantry, but I guess they are divided between Curacao and Aruba, doesn't pay to put them on Bonaire. Infrastructure between Puerto Cabello and Maracaibo is poor, any amphib attack would probably have to come out of Puerto Cabello. And that would be a real problem, since those four LSTs are limited to a very small number of harbors on the north coast. Plus they'd need fire support from their surface fleet, esp for denying use of the two large airfields.

Support for the Netherlands would sure come from the U.S. Btw, the P-3C and F-16s out of Hato and Reina Beatrix should detect an "invasion fleet" quite soon. In case an attack is successful, the closest bases for doing harm to Venezuela are Muniz, Ramey and Howard (and Barksdale, of course), all of them at least 400nm away.
 
harryriedl

harryriedl

Active Member
Verified Defense Pro
[/QUOTE]
Support for the Netherlands would sure come from the U.S. Btw, the P-3C and F-16s out of Hato and Reina Beatrix should detect an "invasion fleet" quite soon. In case an attack is successful, the closest bases for doing harm to Venezuela are Muniz, Ramey and Howard (and Barksdale, of course), all of them at least 400nm away.[/QUOTE]

are you sure about the P3C in netherland service i thought they were sold and given to other NATO countries and the job was replaced by a private company flying Dash8
 
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