Todjaeger
Potstirrer
I have some difficulties rebutting some of the arguments made about the SH, but the reason it can be difficult to rebutt them is the accuracy of information just isn't available.You still havent rebutted any of their main arguments. I did ask you to explain exactly how the RCS reduction in the SH can be exploited in a decisive manner, or the advantages in IR countermeasures the SH is suposadly has, but you've yet to do either.
This outlines a number of the problems with the arguments made. As I'd indicated on a previous post (maybe more than one) the actual, factual information on what the aircraft & systems performance is, just isn't available. For some (like the SH & JSF) it is likely due to security classification, for others (like future Su-XX datalinks, IRST, AESA, etc.) because it doesn't exist yet. And then some of the performance data that is available, might be of "questionable" accuracy, either due to being conservative estimates, or marketing hype, or deliberate misinformation for that matter.I don't dismiss them, but I find a lot of their "strategic rationale" flawed as well as their "analysis" of comparative air combat capabilities. Re-read a Carlo Kopp article sometime. The SH v Flanker in Jan/Feb 07 Defence Today is a classic example and of course very relevant to our current discussion.
He talks about ALF-41 engines on the Flanker. On face value this gives them a theoretical supercruising capability. Whilst clean, he then admits.
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AND this is a potential future development. Just like the AESA radar carrying Flankers, and the Flankers with LO improvements, and a new EWSP which "is" going to surpass that employed by SH and so on and so on.
Every capability except sheer aerodynamic performance NOW, is outlcassed by the SH and even Kopp admits this. It is only the "future possibilities" of the SU series that he states are superior. Of course, no mention of the VERY long list of upgrades the SH IS funded to receive is made, nor the enhanced F-414 engine (Kopp compares the Flankers engine to the F-404 in that article; a technical error, the SH uses the more powerful and efficient F-414) NOR the Block III variant that Beoing is developing.
For the JSF vs. Su-XX argument, it has be argued that the Su-XX with an IRST would be able to detect the JSF at considerable range. This might be true, then again, it could be completely off. The IR signature of the JSF isn't known publicly, and the IRST being argued is currently just a theoretical idea. It doesn't actually exist yet, never mind exist and perform to the level cited.
For similar reasons, it becomes difficult to discuss the particulars of the effect of the RCS reduction on the SH. On one hand, the estimated RCS of the SH is unknown, while the estimated performance of the Su-XX radar against a given RCS is is listed, but the accuracy of the listing isn't publicly known. For instance, the LO RCS of the SH might be the equivalent of 1m squared (estimates provided by the WAG Institute ) if the BARS phased array performs as listed, then it would detect an SH roughly 80 n miles away. However, if the SH RCS is smaller, and/or the BARS detection range is shorter than listed... That tilts the balance of power in a theoretical engagement.
I believe most people would agree that the F/A-18F (Block II+) engaging a current Su-XX in an A-to-A engagement is likely to emerge the victor, due to the greater situational awareness, etc.
Where there is a "fog" if you will, is what the future will bring. Currently, there are a number of planned upgrades and projects available for the SH and JSF. While there are a few ideas for possible additions to or upgrades of the Su-XX family, the viability of some of them remain in question. Technical challenges, financial difficulties, anticipated needs, these all will play a part. I would personally wish though, that people, when looking at what is possible for the Su-Xx and what is being worked on for the SH & JSF, keep in mind the technological differences.
As for the PRC scenario, I'm still waiting for a good and logical one.
IMV, it would be some time before the PLAN has developed sufficiently to operate a CBG. In order to operate effectively, the PLAN would need a carrier (currently none) and sufficient escort and replenishment ships. I believe the combat strength of the PLAN is roughly twice the size of the RAN in terms of ocean-going warships. In order to not weaken the home fleet, the PLAN would most likely want to have at least 2 new ships built to escort the CV, preferably one AAW and one ASW tasked ships. Is the PLAN developed enough to provide an adequate AAW or ASW ship? I'm unaware of any PRC developments of Aegis/SMART/EMPAR type systems for AAW. Also, an ASW escort would need to potentially detect and engage RMN, RSN, and RAN subs. Then there would be the time needed to design, build and launch the CV, as well as time spent getting pilots qualified to operate from a carrier. I don't imagine that is a quick or easy process, though Big-E I expect could shed some light on this. All of that needed, just to send a CBG to somewhere near Australia.
I would expect, that if the PRC did send a CV somewhere, it would be because they expected things to become overtly hostile. As such, I would expect the ADF would have whatever tools and weapons are available in the event that happens.
-Cheers