Moderated taiwan invasion war game

[hallo84]

well, I guess you go to the local taiwanese walmart and buy your runway repair kit consisting of:

1 x BDA expert to do a quote
"nn" metres of reinforcing rods
"nn" cubic metres of asphalt
"nn" cubic metres of sand
tip trucks
water truck
heavy rollers
vibrator rollers
2 dozen council workers
4 "lollipop men" to keep out the onlookers
2 x toyota hi-aces doubling as mini buses


all at the bargain basement price of "nn" taiwanese dollars for each hole... nfloorl:

Rapid Mat U.S. LLC/Starflite Inc was awarded $43,050,924 to provide Taiwan with Rapid Runway Repair System in 2002

I still can't post any URL but you can check it out yourself.

 

[hallo84]

What is your source in which he stated as you had claimed?

There is no western media sources. You have to follow Taiwanese media which did extensive reports on these military purchases...

 

[hallo84]

I'd be interested to see the credible source for this comment.

I'm more than interested to see who is making "runway repair kits"

Runways aren't like bicycle tubes....

Rapid Mat U.S. LLC/Starflite Inc. was awarded $43,050,924 to provide taiwan with Rapid Runway Repair System in 2002.
I still can't post any URLs but it is listed in DoD Procurements.

 

[Transient]

Don't worry. A source in chinese where he made those statements which you attributed to him is fine. Just produce a source to back yourself up that he specifically said "if the Taiwan was to take measures such as hardening of airfields and purchase of rapid repair kits for runway.", which is something which runs contrary to the source I provided.

 

[hallo84]

The Taiwanese will deploy layers of defense, like an onion being peeled, with the end result being combat ineffective Chinese units will be stranded and isolated, very possibly cut off from re-supply.

We had a similar strategy in NATO during the Cold War. We called it "forward defense".

All assumptions based on what? Current Taiwan command structure is in need of a overhaul and defese strategy relooked. Taiwan DoD is still fanticizing the idea of taking the battle outside of Taiwan.

Cobras have been mentioned and are a case in point. They would be deployed ruthlessly against Chinese armor, maybe even against landing craft. The Chinese may very well be able to secure local control of a piece of Taiwan's real estate but will they be able to consolidate and expand it? Especially against Taiwan's forward defense in depth?

Case point on October 31, 2005 Taiwan air force sent two F-16 with 4-2000lb LGB to sink an overturned tanker (stationary target). guess what ...they failed. After the bomb-run, two AH-1W Super Cobra helicopters were dispatched. They fired a total of eight Hellfire missiles at the ship on Thursday afternoon. They also failed to sink the ship.

Mission kill maybe but don't assume one missile = one target killed.

In other words the Chinese gaining of a beach would not be an end all of the game. They might plant the flag on a beach or two and still end up regretting doing so. In fact one can almost assume it at this point in time.

If the PLAN marines can secure a beachhead then this provides a basis for PLA to transport its main invasion. how fast can ROCA turn and counter attack would be the real question.

Taiwan has difficult terrain for an enemy force to maneuver in. Lots of rivers, bridges, mountain passes, swampy rice fields, narrow beaches, and a whole lot of city death traps for invading forces. Such terrain would be a nightmare for an invading force and a huge aid for a indigenous defensive force who knows it intimately. And at the very least Taiwan would have access to Americas Intel machine.

Taiwan does have difficult terrain which is a plus for PLA. ie it means Taiwanese mechnized units have a tough time manuvering. Looking back on korean war you'd find PLA did some of its best attacks in rough terrain.

 

[hallo84]

Don't worry. A source in chinese where he made those statements which you attributed to him is fine. Just produce a source to back yourself up that he specifically said "if the Taiwan was to take measures such as hardening of airfields and purchase of rapid repair kits for runway.", which is something which runs contrary to the source I provided.

Every year they ask for different things before it was hardened airfields and bunkers, RRR systems (which they got) but now its Patriot Pac 3.
Btw during legislative yuan in Taiwan he commented on the need to hardened airfields but that was a few years ago and I didn't keep any aritles...
anyways 實施戰力保存各項措施 which mean a host of different measures.

The system won't let me post urls so here is the whole article.

國防部公佈中南部飛彈設置基地　戰力存活率提昇
2007/01/24 01:19
記者林弘展／台北報導

國防部規劃在中南部地區設置6個愛國者飛彈陣地的地點正式出爐！根據國防部公佈的資料，未來在台中地區將設置2個、嘉義、台南、高雄與屏東均各設一個總共增設6個愛國者三型飛彈連。共軍對台有1000枚導彈，國防部研判將以約7成導彈攻台，我方戰損評估應有50%以上的戰力存活率，實施戰力保存各項措施後，能使戰力存活率逾7成。

中南部新設的6個愛國者三型飛彈連的設置地點之戰略考量，除防範有關民生、經濟、交通重要地點，儘量降低遭到中國導彈密集破壞威脅之外，更具有保護北從竹科、中科、南科等三大科學園區的防護保障功能。

這6個地點分別是：台中縣太平市坪林營區、台中大肚山營區、嘉義機場附近中庄營區、台南縣新化鎮虎頭埤營區、高雄縣鳥松鄉考潭營區、屏東機場附近空軍飛彈連。

根據軍方的戰略構想，國防部在中部分別部署在台中縣太平市坪林營區、台中大肚山營區、嘉義機場附近中庄營區砲兵基地！其中，台中設置兩處愛國者三型飛彈基地，除可兼防新竹科學園區，國防部也考量到保護中部地區的中部科學園區、台中火力發電廠、彰濱工業區、六輕工業區等地區面臨第一擊的反制能力。

在嘉義地區部署一個愛國者三型飛彈基地，係考量保障西部地區唯一一個F16戰機基地不受中國導彈進行第一擊摧毀，有時間與空間進行臨機升空的應急接戰能力。

國防部在南部地區的台南縣新化鎮虎頭埤虎踞營區砲兵群、高雄縣鳥松鄉考潭營區(43砲指部624群)、屏東機場附近空軍飛彈連各設有一個愛國者飛彈基地，此一考量是，防衛南部科學園區、高雄中油後勁五輕工業區、林園工業區、高雄港區、南部各機場、屏東核能三廠等免遭中國導彈攻擊。

國防部情報次長室次長王正霄少將表示，中共彈道飛彈自1996年的190餘枚後，每年以50枚速度增加，2003年已有540餘枚；之後再增加生產數量並精進彈頭效能，目前已有880餘枚戰術彈道飛彈及百餘枚東海巡弋飛彈，射程完全涵蓋台灣全島，確實嚴重威脅到台灣安全。

國防部整評室副主任葛熙雄少將指出，中共對台雖有1000枚導彈，但精準程度、妥善率未如想像中高，研判共軍攻台將以約7成導彈發動攻擊，我方戰損評估應有50%以上的戰力存活率，實施戰力保存各項措施後，更能使戰力存活率超過7成。

 

[Manfred]

Goggle Earth is what I am using to plan this all out, and we might be starting tommorow or the next day at another site... If we can find a moderator.

Halo did mention something important; how well PLA troops do in rough terrian. It is possible that the Taiwanese can be out-manuvered in the very mountians that they are banking on. This would be especialy true of those lightly equipped, lower-catagory divisions... the kind who's movements might not attract much attention.

43 thousand for a runway repair kit? Somebody got a good deal!

Those level streaches of roadway; are they defended, permenantly? They sound like what I was looking for at the beggining of this thread; potential aireal bridgheads. AN-12s don't need 4,000 meters to land, even with one of those light tanks I was talking about- the ones that resemble medium tanks so closely. (no, I would not use them for tank-to-tank battles, ATGMs are for defense against armored assault. 12 tanks with 85mm guns could make for a hell of a raiding force, causing confusion and shooting up soft targets miles away from the beach heads)

Skipping ahead a few steps from the start of it all, I would land troops around the Capitol, including on the supposedly invulnerable East coast. 5 divisions make for a very serious landing force. The goal would be to pinch the northern tip of the Island off, and force the Taiwanese to commit themselves to an all-out assault to save Taipie. Rather then work against a 5:1 equation, the PLA could (if the small-unit commanders move quickly) could force the Taiwanese to deploy 12-15 divisions in a counter attack.

 

[Manfred]

After the initial landing, those "useless" merchant ships come into their own special role. At night, small cargo ships escorted by second-rate naval ships stage one mock landing after another, all the way up and down the coast. Depleated Taiwanese assets can chase these phantoms, or ignore them, but the aim is to wear them out.

If the landings in the north are successful, reinforce them with the follow-up landing. If not, a landing in the south would be made. During the 48 hours it takes to make another Naval landing, all three paratroops divisions could be landed, wherever they could do the most good ( I would prefer the high ground near landing beaches, but there are other options)

I havent even gone into naval mine-belts defended by submarines, exclusion zones, long-range missles or a host of other goodies.

I almost gave up on this... glad I didn't!

 

[hallo84]

This would be especialy true of those lightly equipped, lower-catagory divisions... the kind who's movements might not attract much attention.

Much like the 155th light mechanized regiment with buggy and jeeps to improve mobility and the rough terrain help them avoid Taiwanese heavy mech units located to the north but still capable of bringing independant heavy fire power.

Then again I think PLA could involve heavy units such as the 38th or 39th Group army in later stages of the campaign. ie recent PLA exercise included a manuvre exercise of the 38th and 39th group army where they were transported over long distance to fight local high intensity war.

Currently PLA have been doing a series of upgrade in comm systems and the development of war zone command structure. We have been seeing more pictures of regiment HQ and vehicle mobile battalion HQ. though independant sat up link for single units are still lacking which may suggest that a lot of information still rides piggy back on radio transmissions. PLA has commented that decision making in the regiment level will be made in under 10min and we have seen more forward observers from PLAAF to facilitate joint ops within PLA ranks.

Current PLA exercises functions less as public display but rather as imporeving tactical training to find weakness within the force. THis only leaves much more is to be desired from ROCA.

I could be under estimating ROCA ability but as of now they have yet to demonstrate their ability as a professional force (exercises more in tune with public propaganda statments) and haven't had any combat experience for 60 years.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Rapid Mat U.S. LLC/Starflite Inc. was awarded $43,050,924 to provide taiwan with Rapid Runway Repair System in 2002.
I still can't post any URLs but it is listed in DoD Procurements.

The Rapid Mat is multi-purpose.

It also can be used to provide secondary airstrip capability for light aircraft and for helicopters. Its used as a temp foundation for emergency construction of buildings - eg in the mining industry, as well as serving overlay purposes.

Mats by themselves are not suitable for runway repair. The little shipping list I provided as an example before still needs to be involved.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

In other words small, flimsy, old (35+ yrs) and slow (10-12 kts) landing craft going open ocean, average crossing perhaps 120+ nm in open sea, towards a contested amphibeous assault. And 100% availability.

No way.

They are not going to arrive in an organised manner. They have low survivability, due to age and speed. Small packets of delivery ensures chaos at the beach head. Assault troops will be sick and fatigued after a 12 hr voyage in 35-128 ton vessels crossing open ocean. Risk of breakdowns due to old equipment.

These vessels are out.

Oh, I agree completely - I was not saying they'd have a good chance of being used at all.

43 thousand for a runway repair kit? Somebody got a good deal!

Actually it was $43 million - you read the numbers wrong.

 

[Manfred]

haven't had any combat experience for 60 years.

That long? I thought there were some Taiwanese units in Vietnam.

Currently PLA have been doing a series of upgrade in comm systems and the development of war zone command structure.

I know about that, but I am talking about a huge and complex operation, bigger than anything since Desert Storm, and I still have doubts about how far the PLA has come.

For example; a PLA Regiment Commander has made good progess and is 10 Kilometers from the beach. He is out of range of Naval Artillery, and the few Night-capable attack aircraft are busy elsewhere. Scouts report enemy infantry dug-in right in front of him, using foxholes that they have been using for years every time they hold annual exercises.
This Regimental Commander has mortars, but his artillery is still back on the beach, waiting for thier ammunition to turn up. Worse yet, the Helecopter Gunships that were supposed to support this very attack are dealing with a mechanized battalion that was trying to outflank this advance.
The mortars are having no effect on the Taiwanese bunkers, and that is a shame. Prisoners have informed him that moral is low, reinforcements have not arrived in time; the PLA was not supposed to be here until dawn.

My question is; if this Regiment calls for a dozen long-range rockets or missles to pound the general area (conventional warheads!) how long would it take for them to arrive?
Minutes, hours, half a day? Even if it was pre-planned, would it be accurate enough?

 

[hallo84]

I know about that, but I am talking about a huge and complex operation, bigger than anything since Desert Storm, and I still have doubts about how far the PLA has come.

For example; a PLA Regiment Commander has made good progess and is 10 Kilometers from the beach. He is out of range of Naval Artillery, and the few Night-capable attack aircraft are busy elsewhere. Scouts report enemy infantry dug-in right in front of him, using foxholes that they have been using for years every time they hold annual exercises.
This Regimental Commander has mortars, but his artillery is still back on the beach, waiting for thier ammunition to turn up. Worse yet, the Helecopter Gunships that were supposed to support this very attack are dealing with a mechanized battalion that was trying to outflank this advance.
The mortars are having no effect on the Taiwanese bunkers, and that is a shame. Prisoners have informed him that moral is low, reinforcements have not arrived in time; the PLA was not supposed to be here until dawn.

My question is; if this Regiment calls for a dozen long-range rockets or missles to pound the general area (conventional warheads!) how long would it take for them to arrive?
Minutes, hours, half a day? Even if it was pre-planned, would it be accurate enough?

Such force recce regiment should be independant regiments and have theoretically enough firepower. The regiment also has 120mm Recoilless Rifle, 105mm Wheeled Anti-Tank Gun and 107mm Multiple Rocket Launcher any of which can be used. The presence FOV and PLAAF forward observer already mean non-organic long range fire support. according to PLA it should theoretically take less than 10 min for fire orders to be passed but unless PLAAF has fighter bombers armed on standby. 2nd artillery would not be used as fire support due to lack of acurracy to engage such localized targets.

Here is the orbat of LMR

Order of Battle

Regimental Admin and Logistics Center

Battalion HQ

Light Mechanized Infantry Company
6x 8x8 ATV w/QJZ8912.7mm HMG
3x 8x8 ATV w/W87 35mm AGL
3x 8x8 ATV w/PP93 60mm Mortar
9x 4x4 ATV

Heavy Mechanized Infantry Company
3x Type 96 Main Battle Tank
3x Type 86 Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV)
3x ZBD97 IFV

Fire Support Company
1x Company HQ FAV
1x FAV w/Minigun
1x FAV w/HJ-8 ATGM FAV
3x FAV w/W99 82mm Automortar
3x FAV w/Type 87 25mm/SAM
3x FAV w/QJZ8912.7mm HMG
3x FAV w/W87 35mm
1x 4x4 ATV w/JS 12.7mm Sniper Rifle

Artillery Battery
Battery HQ/Fire Direction Center
3x 82mm Mortar
3x PTL02 105mm Wheeled Anti-Tank Gun
3x 107mm Multiple Rocket Launcher ATVs

Recon Platoon
1x Command Jeep with 2x HN-5 MANPADS
2x Dune Buggy Jeeps w/Heavy Machinegun/HJ-73 ATGM
1x 4x4 ATV with PF98 120mm Recoilless Rifle
1x 4x4 ATV

Electronic Warfare Detachment

UAV Detachment

Medical Detachment (at least two 4x4 ATV ambulances)

LMIC Weapon Totals

6x QJZ89 12.7mm HMG
3x W87 35mm AGL
3x PP93 60mm Mortar
3x Type 75 82mm RR
18x QBB95 5.8mm SAW
56x QBZ95 5.8mm Rifles
?x FJH84 Incendiary Rocket Launcher
__________________

 

[Rich]

I have no idea how many of these provisional highway airstrips Taiwan has. And I think this is not public info. But I think they should get 2 to 4 additional airstrips out of their highway network.

http://www.asianinfo.org/asianinfo/countries_map/map-picture/taiwan.jpg

We had enough. But don't ask me for numbers.
Our Autobahn network is the third largest of the world behind the US and China.

I remember seeing some in Google Earth. I dont remember how many and when I get time I'll go over it again. How hard would it be to use any old straight stretch of highway? There wouldn't have to be any special equipment prepositioned. Correct?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Such force recce regiment should be independant regiments and have theoretically enough firepower.

Its not just an issue of firepower.

Conventional modern assessment stipulates that a ratio of 3:1 is required by the challenger to remove and dislodge an established entrenched defender, this is with sufficient force and firepower to effectively impose their will on that force. That ratio is used for land over land engagements.

The numbers for achieving the same result over sea or by air goes up - in some areas its considered to be a ratio of 5:1.

at 5:1 the logistics, persistence and projection have to be consistent when dealing with an entrenched and technically proficient defender. when that projection and persistence involves migrating across a 90km vacuum first - then the odds go up in favour of the defender.

the quaint notion that the mainland will just saturate the ground with arty and rockets ignores the reality that a destroyed infrastructure invites hostility from the civilian population - and makes the burden of repair (as the invader absorbs the obligation of reconstruction) much much more expensive.

destroy local infrastructure and you lose any goodwill that might be there.

 

[gf0012-aust]

I remember seeing some in Google Earth. I dont remember how many and when I get time I'll go over it again. How hard would it be to use any old straight stretch of highway? There wouldn't have to be any special equipment prepositioned. Correct?

Its not too difficult as long as existing transmission lines are either underground, or on drop down masts (as is the case in parts of germany, italy sweden, switzerland)

taiwan already has that infrastructure in place. the mulit lane highways can be converted within an extremely short timeframe.

 

[Waylander]

I remember seeing some in Google Earth. I dont remember how many and when I get time I'll go over it again. How hard would it be to use any old straight stretch of highway? There wouldn't have to be any special equipment prepositioned. Correct?

Should not be the real problem if your equipment is just mobile enough.

We have some larger asphaltic areas looking like parking places there, some small warehouses with some minimum pioneer material and the guardrails are removable very fast.
That's it.
The rest of the equipment is relocated when needed.
You would not know that there is such a place when driving along the highway if you don't know were too look for.

The biggest problem at unprepared but long enough streets might be the parking room around the street and not the street itself. Especially with a terrain like on most places of Formosa.

 

[hallo84]

Its not just an issue of firepower.

Conventional modern assessment stipulates that a ratio of 3:1 is required by the challenger to remove and dislodge an established entrenched defender, this is with sufficient force and firepower to effectively impose their will on that force. That ratio is used for land over land engagements.

The numbers for achieving the same result over sea or by air goes up - in some areas its considered to be a ratio of 5:1.

at 5:1 the logistics, persistence and projection have to be consistent when dealing with an entrenched and technically proficient defender. when that projection and persistence involves migrating across a 90km vacuum first - then the odds go up in favour of the defender.

the quaint notion that the mainland will just saturate the ground with arty and rockets ignores the reality that a destroyed infrastructure invites hostility from the civilian population - and makes the burden of repair (as the invader absorbs the obligation of reconstruction) much much more expensive.

destroy local infrastructure and you lose any goodwill that might be there.

Yes but this does not take into account of Conventional modern assessment. Light Mechanized Regiment is only a experimental regiment that I chose to use as an example. Unlike traditional froce recce where you need 5:1 ratio in main force movement, it envolves lateral engagement that bypass dug in heavy mechinized units with its low profile and higher mobility and take out enermy Bde HQ with focused fire power of assets normally organic to a brigade level. If you can take out all three Bde HQ then you'd leave 9 inf battalion fighting independent battles and can be wiped out quickly.

Very daring idea but indicates the need for extreme battlefield awareness to be successful.
Is PLA over confident in its current informization capability? We do not know yet.

 

[gf0012-aust]

Yes but this does not take into account of Conventional modern assessment. Light Mechanized Regiment is only a experimental regiment that I chose to use as an example. Unlike traditional froce recce where you need 5:1 ratio in main force movement, it envolves lateral engagement that bypass dug in heavy mechinized units with its low profile and higher mobility and take out enermy Bde HQ with focused fire power of assets normally organic to a brigade level. If you can take out all three Bde HQ then you'd leave 9 inf battalion fighting independent battles and can be wiped out quickly.

Very daring idea but indicates the need for extreme battlefield awareness to be successful.
Is PLA over confident in its current informization capability? We do not know yet.

what lunatic is going to undertake a migrating assault with heavy elements first? the chinese only have to look at the last 1000 years of military history to see how thats a flawed process.

amphibious or airborne assault 101. a first year cadet should know that.

it doesn't matter whether they just have backpacks or whether they are geared up like the master chief in Halo3 , they still have to insert into hostile battlespace, they still have to manage the battlespace, they still have to compress the battlespace, they still have to dominate the battlespace, they still have to decapitate command and control (which is dispersed), they still have to dislocate entrenched cohesion and committed troops. they still have to demonstrate persistence, and projection and have their logistics train uncompromised to maintain tempo and rythm.

they have to undertake all of this with lateral flair? I don't think so.

all the enthusiasm in the world does not alter basic concepts that have to be attended to before any paratrooper or marine boards their military taxi to cross the straits.

 

[Grand Danois]

An example of what a diversionary landing could go (An insertion ).

The PLA regimental commander is on his way towards the beach. He is aware that the Taiwanese knows he is on his way as both his motherships, but also the 16 Type 68 transporting his 2000 troops and some equipment will be spotted well in advance. Any of the squad-sized teams dotting the coast will be reporting his doings the final 20 km journey. This will take a little more than an hour before he hits the beach.

As the PLA commander predicted, the Taiwanese squads report their observation to the command which decides to put two AH-1W and one OH-58D on standby. At the same time 3 inf coys are notified to prepare to take up blocking positions when the landing zone is reliably predicted. A section of MLRS is put on notice. (The Taiwanese seems to have gone big on MLRS.)

When the Type 68's are 10 km out, they still have more than ½ an hour to go. But the attack helos and the infantry deploy to the area, with the helos masking themselves in the terrain 2 km from the shoreline.

As the Type 68's get within 4-5 km of the shore, the infantry move into their blocking positions 1-3 km inland. The constraining terrain favours this approach. The three helos reveal themselves. They carry 20 AGM-114K Hellfire II, with a 9 Kg tandem HEAT and fragmentation warhead. It has a range of 9 km.

There are many ways to distribute the 20 missiles on the 20 targets, but say 2 are fired at 10 of the Type 68 each.

This will have these effects:

• Make casualties of most of the people on board.
  
• Probably disable the Type 68.
  
• Maybe sink it.

A mission kill for certain.

If anyone is unhappy with these numbers, then replace the OH-58D with two AH-1W and there will be 32 Hellfires available. It will only represent 3-4% of the Taiwanese attack helo fleet anyway.

The PLA commander is now down to 6 Type 68 and ~750 troops.

He continues towards the beach with the remains of his regiment. As he is within a few hundred meters of the beach, the Taiwanese observation squad(s) decide to call in the MLRS, which will take out the entire grid of the shoreface the landing is taking place in. It only has to be a crude assessment of time and place for that to happen.

80% casualty rates plus the rest of the Type 68's ?

The Taiwanese infantry then move in with supporting arty to mop up the remaining 150 PLA troops.

End of a heroic assault.

There two layers in this example. The attack helos or the MLRS alone will be showstoppers.

And there are additional layers to these.

Notice how little, relatively light and mobile infantry was used for this?