Moderated taiwan invasion war game

[rjmaz1]

Its a known fact that if China tried to take Taiwan that the US Navy will kick ass.

If i was China trying to dominate the globe i would do the following.

The key for China would be to wait until the possible Iran strike by the US Navy. This would consume up more than half of the entire US Navy. China could then pressure North Korea into attacking South Korea while the US Navy is extremely busy.

North Korea would also agree that it would be the perfect time for them to attack South Korea while the US has its hands full. China could then swiftly take Taiwan in a couple days.

Meanwhile North Korea is still being bombed by the US. China could then invade North Korea and could pretend they are helping the US. China would come out on top having gained HEAPS!!!

Would be difficult for China to take Taiwan back, it really depends how much of a fight they put up. Some people in Taiwan may let them walk straight in. The easiest way would be to take out the military installations with nukes or biological weapons with missiles, then secure the air with massive amounts of fighters while China air drops in 100,000 soldiers in the first few days to secure the coast and prepare for a land invasion by ship, which will carry all the supplies for the troops already on the ground.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

An amphibious and airbourne assault would on taiwan would be the most complex military operation ever undertaken, against a formidable enemy who is large (over a million men when fully mobilised), determened, well treianed, well equiped and dug in. The notion that the Chinese could "take taiwan in a couple of days" even without US involvement is pure fantasy. In fact an sucsessfull amphibious/airbourne assault on taiwan by PROC at all is pure fantasy.

This possibility was extensively debated in this thread.
http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3328

 

[FutureTank]

Its a known fact that if China tried to take Taiwan that the US Navy will kick ass.

If i was China trying to dominate the globe i would do the following.

Something that hasn't happened yet, can't be a 'known fact'

We are talking reintegration of Taiwan, not 'dominate the globe'

Much of the USN command structure and vessel design is from the Cold War, and designed for a very different strategic use. It is certainly not designed to blockade Taiwan.

There was no democracy in Taiwan for most of it's history since WW2 in the same terms it is recognized in the USA. Moreover, the Chinese cultural perception of democracy is very different to that of an American.

It seems to me that PRC and Taiwan have both changed since 1949, and Taiwan is not Tibet. It helps not to compare apples and oranges sometimes.

Cheers

 

[FutureTank]

An amphibious and airbourne assault would on taiwan would be the most complex military operation ever undertaken, against a formidable enemy who is large (over a million men when fully mobilised), determened, well treianed, well equiped and dug in. The notion that the Chinese could "take taiwan in a couple of days" even without US involvement is pure fantasy. In fact an sucsessfull amphibious/airbourne assault on taiwan by PROC at all is pure fantasy.

This possibility was extensively debated in this thread.
http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3328

Firstly that thread is:
"Another perfectly good thread closed just because some of you fail to heed warnings about relevance.

If you don't want to abide by requests, or feel driven to ignore requests by the Mods - then don't post here.

I am heartily sick of playing den mother when its not necessary.

This thread is closed whilst the Web and Mods start deleting all irrelevant responses."

Secondly, a cursory perusal of the thread suggests the respected and knowledgeable memebers fail to think like the Chinese, and instead spent years talking about hardware.

Thirdly, the 'window of opportunity' for success in this operation is 48 hours at most. If the PRC troops are unable to secure Taiwan in that thime, there is a good possibility that the US would be able to deploy troops to Taiwan to render assistance.

However, having said that, the notion that somehow having a large land force matters in this sort of operation is in error. The idea is to prevent the defender from assuming defensive posture (being 'dug in'), or mobilizing. Success in this would quickly reduce the level of determination by the Taiwanese forces, and their ability to use their training or employ their equipment.

The Taiwanese ability to engage PRC transports is far more numerous then the available PRCs fleets (if allowed to use these assets). Most PRC naval transports (used to transport most troops in such an operation) would be armed only with rudementary gun systems, so not able to offer much of a defence against stand-off weapons. This makes the parameters of the operation for PRC rather clear.

 

[FutureTank]

"Police state" does not refer to the fact Police exist. Check your dictionary.

I think its only curtesy not to selectively quote someone...

Taiwanese fought for decades against KMT dictatorship. Why would they roll over and accept CCP dictatorship, especially when they've got used to democracy and the ability to elect who they want? They wouldn't - there would be riots in the streets and China would have to respond with repression not seen since 1989, or give in to the demands.

80,000 acts of public disorder in fact, and this says something about China and it's leadership. I prefer to be progmatic about China. Managing a country is a fairly onerous job, and China has it's problems. Would a China governed by a Nationalist government have been better? I don't want to start an alternative history thread, but don't think that a Nationalist governed China would be a greater friend and ally of the US in 2007 then the Communist one. Certainly the Japanese proved that point in 1941.

You're telling me Clinton was a Republican?

Clinton was an American. American politics don't work quite along party lines even if the promises made during elections do. As it happens, IF the next Administration is Democratic, and even IF headed by another Clinton, the likelyhood of commitment to another theatre of war is not going to be a decision taken lightly or in a hurry.

Get real. Just because they don't recognise Taiwan doesn't mean they would agree with China stomping all over it. If they let China do that, there would be no stopping it next time it decided to launch a military operation against another country.

And how many countries is China threatning to launch military operations against now? When is the 'next time' likely? Any suggestions?

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Firstly that thread is:
"Another perfectly good thread closed just because some of you fail to heed warnings about relevance.

If you don't want to abide by requests, or feel driven to ignore requests by the Mods - then don't post here.

I am heartily sick of playing den mother when its not necessary.

This thread is closed whilst the Web and Mods start deleting all irrelevant responses."

Secondly, a cursory perusal of the thread suggests the respected and knowledgeable memebers fail to think like the Chinese, and instead spent years talking about hardware.

Thirdly, the 'window of opportunity' for success in this operation is 48 hours at most. If the PRC troops are unable to secure Taiwan in that thime, there is a good possibility that the US would be able to deploy troops to Taiwan to render assistance.

However, having said that, the notion that somehow having a large land force matters in this sort of operation is in error. The idea is to prevent the defender from assuming defensive posture (being 'dug in'), or mobilizing. Success in this would quickly reduce the level of determination by the Taiwanese forces, and their ability to use their training or employ their equipment.

The Taiwanese ability to engage PRC transports is far more numerous then the available PRCs fleets (if allowed to use these assets). Most PRC naval transports (used to transport most troops in such an operation) would be armed only with rudementary gun systems, so not able to offer much of a defence against stand-off weapons. This makes the parameters of the operation for PRC rather clear.

Just because some posters just wanted to get into a flame war doesent effect the quality of the discussion in this thread and the rational points put foreward by posters who just wanted a debate, not a nationalistic argument.

You keep saying that speed is the answer. However your overlooking a massive contridiction. Even to overcome taiwans high readyness brigades PROC would need to move substaintial forces into staging areas and need extensive preparations. The ROC military is allways on a semi "defenceive posture", that equipment is pre targeted MLRS, aimed at the only possible landing areas. A large proportion of their military is full time, and ROC can mobilise and move to critical area's much faster than PROC can even hope to. The logistical situation for PROC would be impossible for even limited aphibious operations. So the only alternative is compleat suprise, yet this is virtually impossible with the ammount of ISR assets pointed at China. So as far as a "classical" military operation goes its just not possible.

I think you might agree with me on that one, but i dont think your advocating a "classical" military operation. You say you have that answer to PROC's worries, but "you dont want to post it or the chinese will use your plan". Don't blame me if i'm skeptical. But why dont you tell us your grand strategy and we can debate the merits of it? I like having my mind changed by new ideas. However simply claiming that you know the answer that no one else does, and its "too good to share" is not going to win me over any time soon.

 

[FutureTank]

So as far as a "classical" military operation goes its just not possible.

I think you might agree with me on that one, but i dont think your advocating a "classical" military operation.

Yes, I do and have consistently said so.

You say you have that answer to PROC's worries, but "you dont want to post it or the chinese will use your plan". Don't blame me if i'm skeptical. But why dont you tell us your grand strategy and we can debate the merits of it? I like having my mind changed by new ideas. However simply claiming that you know the answer that no one else does, and its "too good to share" is not going to win me over any time soon.

This is a public forum, and posts are browsed by all sorts of people. You can remain skeptical, and I don't blame you. I think I would also be skeptical if I came across statement like that. Maybe if Manfred gets this wargame going and participants can be IDed, and the game can be conducted in private, you will get to see what I'm talking about. The problem with such strategies is that they are based on a significant element of surprise. Such elements of surprise are one-time-use methods. For example no one will ever crash a passenger plane into large building anywhere again.
I'm sure you understand that I ma carefull about disclosing the methods.

Cheers

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

80,000 acts of public disorder in fact, and this says something about China and it's leadership. I prefer to be progmatic about China. Managing a country is a fairly onerous job, and China has it's problems. Would a China governed by a Nationalist government have been better? I don't want to start an alternative history thread, but don't think that a Nationalist governed China would be a greater friend and ally of the US in 2007 then the Communist one. Certainly the Japanese proved that point in 1941.

What on earth are you talking about? That has nothing to do with the fact Taiwanese would not roll over and take Chinese autocracy/interference in their political system.

As it happens, IF the next Administration is Democratic, and even IF headed by another Clinton, the likelyhood of commitment to another theatre of war is not going to be a decision taken lightly or in a hurry.

A decision to go to war is never taken lightly, but in the case of Taiwan I believe the US would intervene if Taiwan were attacked without real provocation.

And how many countries is China threatning to launch military operations against now? When is the 'next time' likely? Any suggestions?

I'm sure people said the same thing in 1938. The point is you don't want to find out.

 

[Manfred]

This has become a challenge, I get more determined to prove my point every time i look at all this!

I am sure that Taiwan is well prepared, which makes this all the more interesting. Im am sure all the likely invasion beaches are covered, this is the reason for a daylight approach and a nightime landing!

"All" the likely landing places? Are you sure? What about the less likely places?

If you really think that crude gun armament is all the PRC has to defend itself with? I suggest you catch up on current events...

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

The likely landing places are determined by topography and lgoistics. I mean you could land an infantry battalion anywher on the coast, but how are you going to supply them? This is the major problem if you are talking about an amphibious operation. You can talk tactics all you want, but PROC just dont have the logistical assets/capability to even hope to supply the forces needed to conduct such a large scale operation. Sure all the defences would be on the western side of the island, so what, go to the east, or maybe land right near taipei? If you land to the east your lines of communication would lengthen at least 5 fold, because your supply convoys would have to track far further north and south to avoid a hostile coast line, and therefore become MUCH more vulnerable to interdiction by ssn's, ssk's and air power. The single major factor that would determine the location of the landings and the outcome of the entire battle would be the nightmatish logistical situation PROC forces would find themselvs in, and no flashy tactical plans are going to be able to rectify that with the assets PROC have now or in the near future. So you want to try to achieve total suprise? It will be entertaing to hear how you expect to achieve that for an amphibious/airbourne operation with the amount of ISR assets pointing at the south china sea and the chinese staging areas! But manfred you tell me how i'm lost on the events matie, when your the one who wants a "daytime aproach and a nightime landing" . I dont think you fully apreciate just how complex amphibious operations are, and how under equiped PLAN is to conduct one of this scale. If your relying on inital shock of a first strike overcoming these problems, dont overestimate its effect.

 

[Manfred]

All I need now is a up-to-date TO&E for the Chinese Army, Navy and Air Force... and a listing of Chinese merchant Marine assets.

Is the PRC still calling a Corps and Army?

Ozzy, no time to go into more detail, but do you think it might cause a panic if PRC tanks (T-55s) suddenly appeared in the middle of the Island? I have lots of dirty little tricks like that in mind. more later...

 

[tphuang]

An amphibious and airbourne assault would on taiwan would be the most complex military operation ever undertaken, against a formidable enemy who is large (over a million men when fully mobilised), determened, well treianed, well equiped and dug in. The notion that the Chinese could "take taiwan in a couple of days" even without US involvement is pure fantasy. In fact an sucsessfull amphibious/airbourne assault on taiwan by PROC at all is pure fantasy.

This possibility was extensively debated in this thread.
http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3328

depending on what Taking Taiwan out in a couple of days is referring to.

If it's referring to destroying its surface fleet, power stations, airbases, shipyards, neutering the SAMs -> basically rendering everything other than the land force useless, it's quite possible.

 

[Grand Danois]

depending on what Taking Taiwan out in a couple of days is referring to.

If it's referring to destroying its surface fleet, power stations, airbases, shipyards, neutering the SAMs -> basically rendering everything other than the land force useless, it's quite possible.

I'm thinking it would take at least a week before the PRC would have worn down the ROCAF air defences enough to begin to work on the invasion defences. PRC simply doesn't have that firepower. It could be done over 2-3 weeks plus minimum.

And that assumes no US intervention and that the ROC Navy is not being used for what it is supposed to be used for...

But stating how I see it. Haven't got the time to participate in the discussion, so I am looking forward to see what surprises the "couple of days" scenarios will reveal.

Btw, read a rumour that when an earthquake recently hit Taiwan, the internet in mainland China lost connection to the outside world - is that true?

 

[ever4244]

Btw, read a rumour that when an earthquake recently hit Taiwan, the internet in mainland China lost connection to the outside world - is that true?

It s 40% true,for a crucial international fiber goes through taiwan,but there are also Sino-US,and Pacific internaitonal fiber etc.

I can t log into MSN at that time,and some international website get disturbingly clumsy. Nearly every majoy country has direct connection between each other,but the total bandwidth will be dramatically effected by such an earthquake.

And in the condition of war, I dont think cut off those fiber will gain you a feat .The communication web is a kind of "graph", and china-mainland is a key point of it.completely isolate mainland will also get a lot of trouble to other countries. As for important business there is also satllite and telegram.

Perhaps a trade-ban is much more sufficient than that. Still the domestic web in china is as mature as her industrial system , we ve been far away from the world for over 300 years before, and even after WW2, so the whole system is quite capable to sustain a relative isolate condition.However, the oil will be a problem,if russian somehow relinquish his alliance with us.

I think its up to US to decide if she want to interfere Chinese s own business , but once start ,she can not hope to withdraw. Of course US can lock us in first island chain and suffocate our economy . But she can not hope to conquer China the way like Iraq. Thus the war will not ends in 10 years, and the condition that china cover 960m km^2 land and more than 300m km^2 sea sees that we can easyly lanuch sudden assult in many crucial navigation course in the name of a similar trade-ban towards US.
-------- Noted that we can produce and research anything thing we fired. So even if US beat China in every battle but how long can american enjoy such a endless war?
At that time maybe the whole Pacific region will be not fit for investment suppose every US cargo in Pacific needs carrier to protect in case of submarine.

So the war between power is not likely to be performed . For once a giant been cornered, the dying retaliation will brough both country decay .the only way the powers fight is through other small nations and reduce opponent s strengh one muscle and another. US patiently waited nearly 50 years to drag down Soviet, but China is acturely more patient than US.

BTW:just suppose a losing nation post the design paper of Nuclear bomb on internet what would happen?And if russia open his nuclear arsenal to DPRK and IRAN what would happen. powers fights politely in a tourney puppet-mastering small nation against each other.but once the fights gets dirty , the whole world will be soiled . So US wont dare to conner China, and China wont dare to over-throne US in a direct charge .
BTW2ersonally I don t approve those ideas ,and know however small a nation should be respected without discrimination.But when the war become hot , there is always more instinct than sense , men and nation alike .The finnal result of the war (should US blunt enough to head in) will be the rise of EU , russia or india etc ,a deep scar on the smaller country jammed between China and US,a fall to US ,and a ruin to China

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I think its up to US to decide if she want to interfere Chinese s own business , but once start ,she can not hope to withdraw. Of course US can lock us in first island chain and suffocate our economy . But she can not hope to conquer China the way like Iraq.

Why would the US want to "conquer" China? If China wanted to continue fighting and see its economy crash, that would be its problem - the US would offer it a way out.

 

[Grand Danois]

It s 40% true,for a crucial international fiber goes through taiwan,but there are also Sino-US,and Pacific internaitonal fiber etc.

I can t log into MSN at that time,and some international website get disturbingly clumsy. Nearly every majoy country has direct connection between each other,but the total bandwidth will be dramatically effected by such an earthquake.

And in the condition of war, I dont think cut off those fiber will gain you a feat .The communication web is a kind of "graph", and china-mainland is a key point of it.completely isolate mainland will also get a lot of trouble to other countries. As for important business there is also satllite and telegram.

Thank you. Was curious what impact a PRC attack would have on its own infrastructure. Didn't ever think of it as anything decisive - just so nobody reads that into it.

Perhaps a trade-ban is much more sufficient than that. Still the domestic web in china is as mature as her industrial system , we ve been far away from the world for over 300 years before, and even after WW2, so the whole system is quite capable to sustain a relative isolate condition.However, the oil will be a problem,if russian somehow relinquish his alliance with us.

Trade embargo more efficient in the short term. But the net poses a security risk. The internet would have to be shut down to mainland China in order to deny PRC warfare on the net. Sure it would work internally.

Self sustainment etc. in a sense that matters is an illusion.

I think its up to US to decide if she want to interfere Chinese s own business [politics - no go] , but once start ,she can not hope to withdraw. Of course US can lock us in first island chain and suffocate our economy . But she can not hope to conquer China the way like Iraq. Thus the war will not ends in 10 years, and the condition that china cover 960m km^2 land and more than 300m km^2 sea sees that we can easyly lanuch sudden assult in many crucial navigation course in the name of a similar trade-ban towards US.
-------- Noted that we can produce and research anything thing we fired. So even if US beat China in every battle but how long can american enjoy such a endless war?

You assume the US will engage on Chinese terms? This is silly.

At that time maybe the whole Pacific region will be not fit for investment suppose every US cargo in Pacific needs carrier to protect in case of submarine.

PRC would not be in a position to build or launch a submarine if it came to such a point.

So the war between power is not likely to be performed . For once a giant been cornered, the dying retaliation will brough both country decay .the only way the powers fight is through other small nations and reduce opponent s strengh one muscle and another. US patiently waited nearly 50 years to drag down Soviet, but China is acturely more patient than US.

The first is a false premise. Second is prejudice.

BTW:just suppose a losing nation post the design paper of Nuclear bomb on internet what would happen?

Design is not the issue.

And if russia open his nuclear arsenal to DPRK and IRAN what would happen. powers fights politely in a tourney puppet-mastering small nation against each other.but once the fights gets dirty , the whole world will be soiled . So US wont dare to conner China, and China wont dare to over-throne US in a direct charge.

Aw, come one man. Irrational behaviour is the deterrent?... The West has faced Doomsday and Cold War before.

BTW2ersonally I don t approve those ideas ,and know however small a nation should be respected without discrimination.But when the war become hot , there is always more instinct than sense , men and nation alike .The finnal result of the war (should US blunt enough to head in) will be the rise of EU , russia or india etc ,a deep scar on the smaller country jammed between China and US,a fall to US ,and a ruin to China

We both know that a war over Taiwan is unlikely to happen. This is just a discussion of what it would look like. The hypothetical question: Could Taiwan be conquered; if so: how fast?

 

[ever4244]

Why would the US want to "conquer" China? If China wanted to continue fighting and see its economy crash, that would be its problem - the US would offer it a way out.

Why, US won t conquer China, but as I have said, the economy will crash, but the war-machine will going on,If US don t conquer China, her base around world will likely receive a bunch of ballistic missle or cruise missle every other days for decades .And maybe months later after the burst of war, US troop in Iraq will find the insurgence got brand new anti-tank and anti-air missle.years later US satllite would found Iran successfully hatch a nuke etc. not to mention what US cargo will end up in Pacific. That s what is called a ultra-limited war, and hence both US and China will be dragged down by war

 

[Rich]

I think its up to US to decide if she want to interfere Chinese s own business , but once start ,she can not hope to withdraw. Of course US can lock us in first island chain and suffocate our economy . But she can not hope to conquer China the way like Iraq. Thus the war will not ends in 10 years, and the condition that china cover 960m km^2 land and more than 300m km^2 sea sees that we can easyly lanuch sudden assult in many crucial navigation course in the name of a similar trade-ban towards US.
-------- Noted that we can produce and research anything thing we fired. So even if US beat China in every battle but how long can american enjoy such a endless war?
At that time maybe the whole Pacific region will be not fit for investment suppose every US cargo in Pacific needs carrier to protect in case of submarine.

I think its natural for a citizen of, what is effectively, a super power to speak with confidence and pride regarding the chances of their military machine in a war. Most of all a Chinese national, who's country has made such amazing progress in recent years. I do however, and no insult intended, see a pattern of underestimating the difficulty of just such an OP as a successful invasion of Taiwan. I am glad however that you acknowledge the weal link in China's supply and sustain chain, and that being oil imports. Most of all vital ocean imports. I wont go into this subject again because Ive already pointed out, Ad nauseum, the ability of the USN to successful blockade China in time of war.

Much of the USN command structure and vessel design is from the Cold War, and designed for a very different strategic use. It is certainly not designed to blockade Taiwan.

I would respectfully disagree. The USN is designed very well to enforce blockades, and in all areas. In vessel types, system designs, available platforms, communication abilities, power projection. We even have a couple dozen floating airfields we can send to provide air cover. In this I include our amphib carriers which are perfectly capable of operating tactical aircraft in support of such ops, and most of all add to the ASW resources which would be needed for such a blockade.

Why, US won t conquer China, but as I have said, the economy will crash, but the war-machine will going on,If US don t conquer China, her base around world will likely receive a bunch of ballistic missle or cruise missle every other days for decades .And maybe months later after the burst of war, US troop in Iraq will find the insurgence got brand new anti-tank and anti-air missle.years later US satllite would found Iran successfully hatch a nuke etc. not to mention what US cargo will end up in Pacific. That s what is called a ultra-limited war, and hence both US and China will be dragged down by war

Now your being kinda irrational, "BTW use a spell checker". Sure the Chinese can act irrational, and I think there is a great danger of the entire scenario spinning out of control. There are plenty of reasons for neither side to start pushing buttons. Here's some good reasons why the Chinese shouldn't, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/index.html

But we've been thru all this before. And I'm still waiting for someone to give a realistic report of a OP that has a good chance of success, and one using the available resources of the PLA. Stamping your feet, and threatening to shoot off BMs, doesnt qualify.

 

[ever4244]

Completely self sustainment will be an illusion, but even under UN cooperated restriction, Iraq was still enabled to access to Russian or even EU weaponry ------and now this weapon is in the hands of Iraq rebellions. but how many country will follow US to give China a completely embargo without UN commision. Russia himselve would delight to see China give US a bloody nose.

PRC would not be in a position to build or launch a submarine if it came to such a point.

How can you destroy a nation( who has nearly 1/10 of world s production power) s industry capability with out landing on it, many crucial factory and research center is in underground bunker, and maybe China s submarine is not sufficient enough to sink US carrier, but they are advanced enough to hide from US navy and launch attack on any US cargos which try to accross the embargo zone (noted that recently a Chinese old type submarine successfully steal into a carrier-group) . Of course that wont strangle US, but more than enough to make US economy a mass----which would likely to last for decades.

The first is a false premise. Second is prejudice.

false or true only time can tell, and a prejudice indeed, I agree with you.

Design is not the issue.

but if China wanted , any country with a modest research ability can acquire Nuclear weapon without directly evidence to prove our interfere .

Aw, come one man. Irrational behaviour is the deterrent?... The West has faced Doomsday and Cold War before.

Dont get the "west" as a whole into the scenery, and the irrational behaviours will not be the sameway like cold war. The doomsday will not happen , but be ready for a more chao s world than ever, the order US tries to established among the regions will be collapse if China choose "not to cooperate" ( there is always enough people hate US---amusingly most chinese quite fond of American on the contra, and what they lack is a decent shoulder-missile or a YJ cruise missile on the truck ,of course some -intellectualized-mine will be more convenient than those rough roadside-bomb they are using now)
Plus:I know you will think spread Nuclear-tech and all kinds of missle is unmoral, and I agree with you, but in the matter of life and death, the instinct commands.

We both know that a war over Taiwan is unlikely to happen. This is just a discussion of what it would look like. The hypothetical question: Could Taiwan be conquered; if so: how fast?

Aye, it s quite joyful to have a common view with you.I think mainland can reunite taiwan peacefully given enough time . If comes to war, and if US just give Taiwan logistical and technical support , one or two week is more than enough. ------consider taiwan has many advanced weapon, but suffer a greatly geographic weakness---------for example, mainland long range rocket launcher can cover many taiwan s airport,and patriot3 will let taiwan bankrupt if she tries to intercept mainland ballistic missile. The island is long and parallel to mainland. the aircraft wont have time to take off before the first wave of rocket and ballistic missile attack .So even though taiwan s air force looks prowess in quality and quantity ,they are likely to die on the ground or sit in the bunker all day long. needless to say s-300pmu can reach taiwan, so taiwan s pilot will enter hostile zoon as soon as they take off.

And in the news,i heard a lot of digital special-forces who was suppose to steal into taiwan and locate target of importance for air-force and snipe enemy leaders destroy information center-------Taiwan s highly developed system is also very frangible
``````` Too much to say
All in all taiwan himself is no match with mainland , the key is US

If US decided to interfere, that will depends on how soon he will gather enough strenghth of aid taiwan. if more than 2 week, taiwan will be already gone. I tought US prepared 3 month for first Iraq war, for how long he would take to prepare a war with China I cant estimate.

BTW
As to the so called "conquer" you mentioned ,Taiwan s official shall be and only be taiwanness,However people in Taiwan can be elected as official in mainland. Taiwan will be free of tax for 50 years and keep his agency in foreign country .Taiwan shall keep his own political structure and forcible force as long as it does not contravente with the recognization of one-China
and If peacefully reunion, taiwan shall have it s own defence force .
------that the term mainland give taiwan 20 year ago.

 

[ever4244]

Now your being kinda irrational, "BTW use a spell checker". Sure the Chinese can act irrational, and I think there is a great danger of the entire scenario spinning out of control. There are plenty of reasons for neither side to start pushing buttons. Here's some good reasons why the Chinese shouldn't, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/index.html

Come on man, I am quite reasonable and peace-loving, Giving some ideas of war doesn t means I totally approve them.

infact I just ran into a article about dissymmetrical-war theory post by one scholar in china-military academy.and that enlightened me about how a weaker country counter a much stronger one.

and did I mention fire ICBM to each other? If Iran or DPRK has a nuke, can US hold irrefutable to prove our interference? don t forget US lose his credit in Iraq.And if we give tech-support freely to other country, can US nuke us for that?-------US himself give all kinds of tech-support to anti-China region .
Al-qaida is a name I hate to mention, but if someone high really goes to ultra-irrational, Al-qaida shall assault a Chinese military base,and have shoulder missiles around US air-port.that s similarly what US done to Soviet in Afghanistan-----dont scold China, it s just a personal idea.
So if US don t want to land on China and put up a decent fight , she might have found war-zoon all over the world.

and I pray for peace , the taiwan war for other countries maybe a great fire-work and a spectacular drama, but for chinese on bothsides and american people, that will be blood and struggle .