FutureTank
Banned Member
that the USN will be caught in some temporal flux and make no attempt to maintain separation of capability superiority - let alone accept parity and superiorityThat also is interesting as it assumes the following:
Ability to maintain parity is very expensive. The British Royal Navy was once unchallenged, and yet it is but a shadow of its former self today.
it assumes that the US will willingly abrogate Mahanian bedrock beliefs (thats not going to happen in 200 years - let alone 50 years if they have anything to say about it)
Huge Chinese fleets dominated Asia’s seas long before America was even discovered. I’d say Mahanian bedrock beliefs are not new to Chinese either.
that the threat matrix for both countries is unimpeachable and thus scriptable (for the next 50 years). hell, nobody - and I mean nobody would have said in 1988 that the USSR was going to collapse like a deck of cards within 12 months. You want to bet on a 50 year window?
So far as USSR’s demise is concerned, it was predicted in 1918. Since there are naval types around, I’ll explain it this way. ‘The fish rots from the head’. The rot in this case set in before 1917. You see, Karl Marx’s thinking never finished on the matter of class. It is one thing to be a revolutionary, it is altogether different to be a leader. For anyone living in USSR in the 70s, the end was apparent and near. Gorbachev was just part of the generation like generations in other countries feel compelled to follow a pattern of behaviour suggested by the peculiarities of their social environment. This is hard to appreciate from the outside looking in, and even more so if one attempts to remove oneself from one’s own ‘generation’.
Change is swift. There is a Jewish saying that “a hundred thousand changes fit on the head of a pin”. Who predicted American Revolution? Who predicted start of WW1?
Of course I don’t say that in 50 years China WILL have a larger Navy then the USA. In fact I tend to believe that there will not be a single China in 50 years, and so USA will face several ‘Chinas’. However this is what will make their combined navies larger….IF they combine.
There is a second part to this equation – what will the USA be like in 50 years time?
that absolute mass denotes superiority - it doesn't. military competency has got nothing to do with absolutes of mass. The first major post classical significant historical lesson was Carthage vs the Roman Republics in round 1 . The object end lesson about Carthage and the Roman Republic is not Hannibal Barca - its Scipio Africanus. (there's a message there )
So China is ‘Carthage’ and USA is ‘Rome’? I’m afraid the Chinese may see it the other way. Absolute mass does not denote superiority, but mass has a quality of its own. However historical analysis does not bear out the comparison in the case of China. It has a combative character altogether different to either, and so does the USA. As a Chinese guy told me once, “The USA has many aircraft carriers, but China has only one sea” Think about it.
that China is a continental power - and her clear vulnerability is the fact that she is coast locked and thus easier to monitor 24/7. Thats why landlocked countries are easier to deal with as far as Sat racetracking is concerned.
But continental is what counts. It has counted since US forced Japan to give it access to their coal for mail steamers. The USN is there to keep the trade routes open, not to bottle up ports of lading. Can American consumers do without Chinese imports?
it assumes a bipolar world as no other variables are counted in so as to pollute the mix. The PACRIM is on the verge for the forseeable future - but so is Africa. Population wise Continental Africa is projected to pass both India and China within the next 50 years.
Are you not contradicting your own statement that absolute mass doesn't denote superiority?
Everything is of course conditional, however it is my belief that the next 50 years will see the Islamic world coalesce in a more united entity, and India will be consumed with this reality. In this it will share the fate of Israel which is blessed with human resources and really bad neighbours. China of Chinas will not face this problem, and will likely overtake India. It seems that China is well aware of Africa though. Wasn’t there a large gathering of African VIPs in China recently?
I’m also a believer in Europe. I will be so bold as to predict that at some time in future, though maybe not in 50 years, the United States, Canada and Mexico will rejoin Europe. I realise Europe has a falling population now, but this is only a circumstance of abundant wealth. Europe however is the paragon of creativity, and ideas cost more then all the cheap clothes in China.
So the answer is that no, I don’t see a bipolar World of US and China, but a more complex relationship.