Is China capable of crippling US CSF's in Chinese ses?

[Galrahn]

Any scenario where USA invades after Taiwan has surrendered gets wacky pretty quickly, on both political and military levels.

I agree with that.

Of coarse I don't think there will be a war between the US and China in the next 50 years either, nor China and Taiwan at any point. China won't risk the progress they have made in their society for Taiwan, because China knows they don't have to.

 

[DarthAmerica]

Galrahn. The thing is, China doesn't NEED to win any other theatre. It can take Taiwan and sit things out.

How do you think thats possible if your SLOC are severed? Look how badly that affected the Japanese during the Pacific War. Look at how that turned out. At the highest level, PRC officials refer to the SLOC situation as a "Dilemma". Please Review:

The Mekong River route however, no matter how successful the plan is, will not alleviate the ‘Malacca dilemma’ – China’s fear of the Strait of Malacca blockaded by foreign naval forces. China can avoid the Strait of Malacca by directing the oil tankers to traverse the Lombok/Makassar Strait. Nonetheless, the renewed US-Indonesia military and diplomatic cooperation has created suspicions that China could fall into another strategic vulnerability. During a military crisis chokepoints in Southeast Asia can be used by hostile foreign naval forces to impose blockade on ships carrying energy resources destined to China. China has put some serious efforts to mitigate its Sea Lane of Communications (SLOCs) vulnerabilities and securing the energy transportation in Southeast Asia. The PRC government executes three main strategies in its quest to alleviate the ‘Malacca dilemma’ – investment, diplomacy and naval expansion.


http://www.mima.gov.my/mima/htmls/p...na-s energy diplomacy in the mekong river.pdf




DA

 

[goldenpanda]

And I agree with that Galrahn.

I'm glad to have that as (almost) the last thing I say for this thread.


Darth, China supplies about half its own oil. Food is nearly self sufficient. There is no other critical resource China imports that cannot be stockpiled. You'll see a lot of empty streets and drawn faces but life goes on.

 

[DarthAmerica]

And I agree with that Galrahn.

I'm glad to have that as (almost) the last thing I say for this thread.


Darth, China supplies about half its own oil. Food is nearly self sufficient. There is no other critical resource China imports that cannot be stockpiled. You'll see a lot of empty streets and drawn faces but life goes on.

Sure but not for everybody. Modern military forces are ravenous consumers of POL. You simply cannot fight and sustain a modern military without it. If the PRC decided to just "tough it out". Imagine the effects and lives lost. It would shatter the PRC economy and seriously limit PRC military operations. Ask anybody who's ever been a support platoon leader or S-4 what happens when a HEMMIT fueler breaks down. Keep in mind we haven't even discussed the other achilles heel of the energy supply chain. The Refining capacity. Enormous doesn't begin to describe the this problem

DA

 

[Tasman]

I agree with that.

Of coarse I don't think there will be a war between the US and China in the next 50 years either, nor China and Taiwan at any point. China won't risk the progress they have made in their society for Taiwan, because China knows they don't have to.

I think you are spot on with this Galrahn as also was the comment from goldenpanda you were responding to. Not all will agree with me but I think eventually it is probably inevitable that Taiwan will be part of one China. I know Chinese people who live in Australia but have business interests in China who certainly believe this will be the case. It may take 50 years, maybe more, maybe less. But the Chinese, IMO, have always been a very patient people.

As far as China's ability to cripple US CSF's I haven’t read anything so far in this thread that convinces me that a properly organised carrier strike force would be seriously threatened, unless a major error of judgement re the deployment of the force occurred on the part of the force commander or, alternatively, that a political decision placed a carrier in the wrong place at the wrong time. Anyway I just can't see this scenario occurring.

Cheers

 

[swerve]

...That hurts China in any Taiwan scenario because if you think about it, the most threatening naval force early in that scenario isn't a single carrier and a dozen US warships in the north, rather it would be warships from countries like Australia assigned to interdict Chinese shipping at the Strait of Malacca. ....

Two points -

The Strait of Malacca is territorial waters of Indonesia, Malaysia & Singapore. That doesn't stop foreign warships operating at the entrances to the strait, of course.

I wasn't aware that US-Australia treaties oblige Australia to defend Taiwan. You're assuming that other countries will fight alongside the USA, despite not being formally required to (an attack on Taiwan is not an attack on the USA). I think you need to lay out which countries are likely to, & why, rather than making assumptions.

 

[contedicavour]

You're assuming that other countries will fight alongside the USA, despite not being formally required to (an attack on Taiwan is not an attack on the USA). I think you need to lay out which countries are likely to, & why, rather than making assumptions.

Sad truth is that nobody would stand up to China with anything else than symbolic gestures (diplomatic gestures or eventually sending armament to Taiwan but not troops), China being way too important as an economic partner where most big countries have sunk billions of USD of investment, the US first of all.
The only real obstacle to such an attack is that Taiwanese investment is so relevant within the Chinese economy that it would be crazy to damage its own economic development. Besides that, China wants Taiwan as it is, not as a wrecked barren rock...
Last but not least, the US and Japan will continue to lean on Taiwanese politians not to do anything too foolish such as declaring outright independence, because that would force China to act or lose all credibility.

cheers

 

[DarthAmerica]

Sad truth is that nobody would stand up to China with anything else than symbolic gestures (diplomatic gestures or eventually sending armament to Taiwan but not troops), China being way too important as an economic partner where most big countries have sunk billions of USD of investment, the US first of all.
The only real obstacle to such an attack is that Taiwanese investment is so relevant within the Chinese economy that it would be crazy to damage its own economic development. Besides that, China wants Taiwan as it is, not as a wrecked barren rock...
Last but not least, the US and Japan will continue to lean on Taiwanese politians not to do anything too foolish such as declaring outright independence, because that would force China to act or lose all credibility.

cheers

Speaking from a strictly military point of view China MUST assume that any aggressive/offensive military operations will be countered by AT LEAST a naval blockade that cuts off their SLOC. Even if it's simply allied warships turning ships bound for China away and not actually sinking them. If they don't plan for that they risk being cut off and choked to death which would ultimately doom any military operation to fail.

At a minimum they need to be prepared to protect their shipping and key choke points. The PLAN is not big enough nor does it have the logistics or C4ISR capability to conduct maritime security outside of territorial waters while simultaneously supporting a massive amphibious landing in the vicinity of Taiwan. The PLAN is completely vulnerable to submarine and minewarfare warfare(both of which can be done covertly) within its territorial waters and it is vulnerable to aerial interdiction, subs and mines in international waters and this too can be done with some plausible deniability.

If this is all the foreign assistance Taiwan received it would be enough to seriously threaten the PRC operation and even hurt the PRC economy enough to outweigh the benefits of taking Taiwan. The PRC understands this so well that they haven't attempted to use force against Taiwan and their entire naval procurement scheme is based on dealing with this threat.

It seems that people completely discount this in their analysis.




DA

 

[Rich]

Even if China was able to feed itself that doesn't mean it would "want to". It makes far more sense to import certain foods, most of all grain. The watershed is China's weak link in its food production chain, not so much arable land or lack of food production resources. Further, a policy of self sufficiency in food production would put great strain on the entire Chinese economy. http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update1.htm

In the first quarter of 2006 China doubled its oil imports compared to the 1st quarter of 2005. This continues a recent trend and its projected oil imports will be 60% of its domestic consumption by 2020.

70% of which will have to pass thru the Strait of Malacca. http://en.ce.cn/subject/EnergyCrisis/ECcomment/200605/31/t20060531_7166144.shtml And that's just oil. China's economic boom is eating up all kinds of resources, many of which it has to import from the sea.

No matter how you cut it, at least for the objective analyst, China is heavily dependant on maritime trade and that is their weak link in time of conflict. Most of all if the conflict involves the USN. Hell they know it better then we do. Just look at the resources they have put into the blue water PLAN? And the entire situation is made worse for them by the sad state of their available strategic oil reserves. America can fight two wars for 6 months ; The Chinese started a program in 2005 that would give them the reserve to fight for 3 months, "tho I honestly dont know where its at now". Oops, here we go. They just started filling it. http://www.uofaweb.ualberta.ca/chinainstitute/nav03.cfm?nav03=55893&nav02=43610&nav01=43092

So it shouldn't be assumed one of our CVs would go chugging up to China's strengths to challenge them. We can assume they can control the water and air near their shores, for instance the strait of Taiwan. For that type of mission we would send aircraft or SSNs, most of all to mine their harbors and hit their airfields, staging points, and leadership targets.

While China has made great gains in their navy they dont now, and wont in the near future, have the ability to defeat a sea embargo enforced by the USN. They would find the overall economic penalty of offensive military action to be distasteful to say the least. The whole scenario would set them back years, or even decades.

I agree with the assessment regarding nuclear weapons but not with the opinion of who might use them. The USN is capable of strangling China's economy, indeed the Chinese know it, which is why they launch missiles over Taiwan instead of at them. If this conflict actually happened the pride filled Chinese communist leadership might become irrational about the Loss of face and it might cause a limited nuclear strike against Taiwan.

Is there cause for hope? Maybe! The younger members of China's communist party have a lot of technocrats and Intelligentsia educated in foreign universities, and frankly, they have done a remarkable job modernizing this country. Hopefully they will be rational about this situation and not underestimate Yank support for a Democratic/Free Taiwan. Lets also hope they dont underestimate the capability of the USN, which is a Pacific navy more then anything. For our part we cant underestimate the emotion the Chinese feel for Taiwan. They aren't entirely rational about it.

If Golden Panda replies, and I like hearing views of other countries, hopefully he can deliver more then emotional one or two liners that have no facts in them, and no supportive evidence. If I can spend 1/2 hour researching a post before I send it then so can he.

 

[DarthAmerica]

One more thing. The PRC military isn't built around being able to invade Taiwan or directly challenge USN carriers. The PRC military capability is much more oriented toward deterring Taiwan from outright declaring independence with the threat of punishing strikes while their diplomatic corps and economic forces do the heavy lifting of persuading Taiwan to peacefully reunify with the mainland.



DA

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

One more thing. The PRC military isn't built around being able to invade Taiwan or directly challenge USN carriers.

That isn't true quite true. Although in the past the PLA was about self-defence, it has been (and still is) modernising, obtaining more sea and air-lift that would allow it to launch an invasion. They probably wouldn't win at the moment if the US intervened, but they are trying to increase their capabilities so that one day they could launch a successful attack.

 

[Falstaff]

I agree with that. I think the Chinese take a lot of efforts which make no sense if not in a let's conquer a nearby island scenario with some kind of brute force attack.

1. They still build amphibious light tanks with enhanced swimming capabilities (Type 63A) which nobody else does
2. If I'm not mistaken there are about 1000 ballistic missiles aiming at Taiwan
3. They are increasing their fleet of large and medium sized landing ships
4. They intend to purchase the Zubr-Class
5. They are increasing the number of airborne troops
6. They have a huge number of FACs and SSKs in service

I think that by common sense one can say this is obvious. Deny access to Taiwan street to any adversary, overwhelm Taiwan with a huge wave and then sit and wait and defend yourself against retaliation by means of nuclear deterrence until the world has calmed down.

They wouldn't have to sink a CSF, just keep them away long enough to take Taiwan.

I used to know some Chinese people here at my university and they were calm, hard working and descent people, but whenever the T-word was mentioned they went crazy. Not much sense of rationality when it comes to that. Hope their politicians know better.

 

[Waylander]

Wouldn't NATO be involved if China strikes at US forces (land, sea, air based) in a pre-emptive strike?
It is northern half of the globe.

If USA decides to defend Taiwan and firing the first shots I agree that I doubt that other countries would stand on their side in other ways than harsh political comments against China.

 

[Grand Danois]

I agree with that. I think the Chinese take a lot of efforts which make no sense if not in a let's conquer a nearby island scenario with some kind of brute force attack.

1. They still build amphibious light tanks with enhanced swimming capabilities (Type 63A) which nobody else does
2. If I'm not mistaken there are about 1000 ballistic missiles aiming at Taiwan
3. They are increasing their fleet of large and medium sized landing ships
4. They intend to purchase the Zubr-Class
5. They are increasing the number of airborne troops
6. They have a huge number of FACs and SSKs in service

I think that by common sense one can say this is obvious. Deny access to Taiwan street to any adversary, overwhelm Taiwan with a huge wave and then sit and wait and defend yourself against retaliation by means of nuclear deterrence until the world has calmed down.

They wouldn't have to sink a CSF, just keep them away long enough to take Taiwan.

But all of above is of no use to the PRC if control of the airspace above Taiwan cannot be achieved. And carriers on station 200 km east of Taiwan effectively prevent this. Any invasion will get slaughtered without air superiority.

 

[Grand Danois]

Wouldn't NATO be involved if China strikes at US forces (land, sea, air based) in a pre-emptive strike?
It is northern half of the globe.

If USA decides to defend Taiwan and firing the first shots I agree that I doubt that other countries would stand on their side in other ways than harsh political comments against China.

NATO geographically only cover countries in Europe and North America. See article 6.

http://www.nato.int/docu/basictxt/treaty.htm

 

[Falstaff]

Wouldn't NATO be involved if China strikes at US forces (land, sea, air based) in a pre-emptive strike?
It is northern half of the globe.

I don't think so. Correct me if I'm wrong, but NATO would only be involved if the US themselves would be attacked or if the American forces were acting during a official NATO mission.
But I do think that the answer from the US's allies would be devastating to China's economy (and to ours as well). Most certainly there would be economical sanctions by the EU, Japan, etc., wrecking havoc on worldwide economy.

 

[Falstaff]

But all of above is of no use to the PRC if control of the airspace above Taiwan cannot be achieved. And carriers on station 200 km east of Taiwan effectively prevent this. Any invasion will get slaughtered without air superiority.

Don't you think that by now China has enough assets to keep the situation chaotic for at least a few dozen hours?

 

[Waylander]

Ah, shit.
Thanks for the correction.
I thought the treaty also includes at least sea and air assets on the northern half of the globe.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I agree with that. I think the Chinese take a lot of efforts which make no sense if not in a let's conquer a nearby island scenario with some kind of brute force attack.

They want to have the option to take Taiwan, though I'm not sure they can right now.

I think that by common sense one can say this is obvious. Deny access to Taiwan street to any adversary, overwhelm Taiwan with a huge wave and then sit and wait and defend yourself against retaliation by means of nuclear deterrence until the world has calmed down.

Blackmail through nuclear weapons would encourage the US to intervene even more.

They wouldn't have to sink a CSF, just keep them away long enough to take Taiwan.

China doesn't have the naval power-projection to do that - carrier-born aircraft could be launched from the Eastern side of Taiwan. There are also the airbases in Okinawa that USAF could launch from, which China could do little about (unless it wanted to get Japan directly involved).

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Don't you think that by now China has enough assets to keep the situation chaotic for at least a few dozen hours?

It isn't enough to "keep the situation chaotic" - China would need air superiority, which it couldn't get in the first place with US support for Taiwan. China would also need more than a few days to secure Taiwan, even if it managed to gain control of the air.

Remember USAF is stationed in Okinawa, amongst other places.