China's military power

[Waylander]

Got I confused with a 2 and a 3?

Germany is still not allowed to export military equipment to China.

And I think we would get these deals also if we would save the development aid money.
It is not like China is still the country which needs it the most.

 

[tphuang]

There have been disputes on exact budget of the PLA some say $30-90 billion USD while others say $50 - 60 billion USD . Does anyone know the exact budget?

the 3 times figure came out after DoD decided to factor in PPP and programs that are associated to military. $35 billion is much closer to truth than $90 billion.

 

[bjskyhorse]

As a Chinese,I know we are not the same level opponent which can challenge the U.S millitary at all!

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

There have been disputes on exact budget of the PLA some say $30-90 billion USD while others say $50 - 60 billion USD . Does anyone know the exact budget?

No one but the Chinese knows the exact budget. However even using SIPRI, which comes up with more conservative figures than the rest, China has already surpassed Japan as the highest spending Asian nation. SIPRI says maybe $45-50 billion at the moment, but that's climbing every year.

 

[csubaicai]

No one but the Chinese knows the exact budget. However even using SIPRI, which comes up with more conservative figures than the rest, China has already surpassed Japan as the highest spending Asian nation. SIPRI says maybe $45-50 billion at the moment, but that's climbing every year.

Because China well knows his force generally is not powerful enough to deal with all the threaten well,so he have to keep secret especially in Military field,so that he is always able to overawe the potential enemies.

 

[caksz]

No one but the Chinese knows the exact budget. However even using SIPRI, which comes up with more conservative figures than the rest, China has already surpassed Japan as the highest spending Asian nation. SIPRI says maybe $45-50 billion at the moment, but that's climbing every year.

Japan military mostly is up to dated and in small size , but the china war machine need a lot improvement and maintain a huge army like china isn't cheap , china in the middle of modernzation period sure they need lot of money.

 

[eckherl]

Japan military mostly is up to dated and in small size , but the china war machine need a lot improvement and maintain a huge army like china isn't cheap , china in the middle of modernzation period sure they need lot of money.

This will be interesting to see how this will change for Japan in the followin years with a new prime minister, yes China is big but with their economy things will start to jell for them, they are watching how the U.S fighting doctrin works and they would like to implement this style of warfare, with the funds coming in the future looks promising for them.

 

[FSMonster]

Military power alone is not sufficient for the status of even a major power. In my view, China and her people/government lacks the 'superpower mentality'.

Chinese are extremely frugal and the military cuts corners already at what should be an early stage of China's transition to superpower status.

I think China is going for an economic superpower stauts rather than a military one.
There is no need to 'catch up' to the USA as neither country is that dumb to risk a military conflict even of small scale.

If you can handle your finances then you can curb USA influence.
As it is, the US is still the only country in the world that can print money to finance military spendings and not suffer from inflation. The convenience of the petro dollar is the reason for the 400 billion dollars US military budget, not 'spreading of democracy'.

In addition, China is buying heavily US government bonds and these are long-term investments. In an event of any conflict in which USA would fare badly would be just as bad for China as she would stand to lose a big chunk of the bonds value.

I don't even need to mention the declining US dollar which sould hurt China's foreign currency reserves.
China is exporting huge amounts of merchandise to the USA, while American consumers get to buy cheap stuff. Both countries are just to cozy, too happy with each other to even think about purely military conflict.
That's a matter of the past and there are much smarter ways to resolve issues nowadays.

Heck, we might come to a point in the future where Taiwan will actually want join up with China in some form of a economic union, or a zone. Much like the EU.

China is negotiating a huge (15 Billion US) deal with Iran for gas exploration. Notice that in the old times, perhaps China would send military aid in form of tanks, planes, instructors just like Soviet Union and USA did for their regional pawns.

To counter-ballance American influence China is using financial means and it's much cheaper than sending a fleet of ships to the Gulf to dissuade and future aggression against Iran.

My point is that this is how future 'wars' will be fought. All China has to do in terms of military build-up is to maintain a credible detterent force.
A force that the strategy planners in Washington would estimate and conclude "Hmm, it would cost a lot more dollars to do battle than it would bring us profit."

China has no plans to become a military superpower, instead, she will use her economic power 'projection' to achieve similar effects.

Consider European Union in the same light as China. EU has plenty of mone, scientific, manpower, and natural resources to become a superpower. It needs no 'catching up' to the USA as there is no technological gap compared to China.
Are they (EU) aiming or even talking about becoming a world military power at all?

Now in Russia, there's actually talk of the old glory but do you see Putin hurrying with modernisation? How many top-of-the-line Su-35 or other Flanker variety are being purchased compared to the numbers sold? Where are ground and naval force modernisation programs?

At this rate, both China and Russia would take perhaps 30 years to build up and even the odds with USA.

Another problem is, the world is too small for so many 'superpowers' as ideology gets pushed out of the way by pure econmics.

It comes as no surprise then, that China is not rushing with aircraft carriers and blue navy. If there was a sense of urgency to build up power China could've bought same carriers from Russia just like India did.

Thinking of a country's status in military terms alone is like one of countless threads we've all seen with Is plane A better than plane B question.
Just like a battlefield where it's naive to expect a single Type 98 agaisnt a single M1A1 at exactly 2000 meters engagements, it is also useless to ponder future status of China as a military superpower.

Whether such a development is realistic depends on too many other factors that most of us armchair strategists conveniently leave out of our assesments.

Cheers

 

[old faithful]

FSmonster...well written, you make a lot of sense.

 

[Big-E]

China is exporting huge amounts of merchandise to the USA, while American consumers get to buy cheap stuff. Both countries are just to cozy, too happy with each other to even think about purely military conflict.
That's a matter of the past and there are much smarter ways to resolve issues nowadays.

I'm happy to say those on the Hill are waking up to the trade imbalance and one of the first orders of business are to cancel our free-trade agrement with China unless they stop devalueing their currency. The mantra is "Fair-trade"... we can expect to see a threat of increased tariffs if China doesn't respond. Prepare for Trade Wars 07' :ar15

 

[swerve]

I'm happy to say those on the Hill are waking up to the trade imbalance and one of the first orders of business are to cancel our free-trade agrement with China unless they stop devalueing their currency. The mantra is "Fair-trade"... we can expect to see a threat of increased tariffs if China doesn't respond. Prepare for Trade Wars 07' :ar15

They aren't devaluing their currency. They're revaluing it, increasing its value against the dollar (or rather, letting the market move it upwards). But very slowly. About 5% so far.

BTW, why is this such a huge problem for the USA, but not so much for other countries? Japan has no problems with the level of Chinas currency, for example. Allowing for the statistical problem mentioned below, their trade is close to balance. Might it be something to do with the USA, rather than China?

BTW, official US statistics overstate the US bilateral deficit with China (& Chinese statistics understate it), because of transit trades, mostly through Hong Kong, as well as the usual CIF/FOB imbalance.

 

[Big-E]

I'm just letting you know that politicians on this side of the pond are going to do something about that trade deficit come hell or high water. It will be interesting to see how the PLA would do without those dollars, what budget can they cut to keep their military operating. 270 billion USD is alot to lose.

 

[swerve]

I'm just letting you know that politicians on this side of the pond are going to do something about that trade deficit come hell or high water. It will be interesting to see how the PLA would do without those dollars, what budget can they cut to keep their military operating. 270 billion USD is alot to lose.

What can your politicans do? Which categories of goods will voters put up with not being able to buy, or having to pay twice as much for?

What the USA needs to do is put its own house in order. The US trade deficit isn't because of China, it's because Americans are living beyond their means, borrowing (largely from China! Look at who buys US bonds) instead of producing. China is, in effect, subsidising the US government deficit by buying US bonds, allowing the USA not to tax Americans. And you think this is something China is doing to harm you? nfloorl:

Tell me, how is the US government going to sell the tax rises, or spending cuts, to make up for the lack of Chinese money currently financing your budget deficit? Who do you think paid for your shiny new F-18E? :nutkick

BTW, the Chinese government sees Chinas trade surplus as a problem, & is trying to boost domestic consumption to bring it down. That's why they're sloooowly raising the exchange rate. But they're scared of the consequences of drastic measures. Don't want the dollar to slump & devalue the $700 billion they have stashed away, don't want to disrupt their own economy, & are terrified of a big turn-down in export industries & any resulting unemployment.

 

[Ths]

Interesting enough the chinese revalues and the oil prices drop - simultaneously.

I generally agree with FSMonster

This is the way the USA tells China that the only party benefitting from China's undervalueing the currency is the Russians.

The USA has a tight hold on China every which way:
As a military power
As a controller of oil prices
As a controller of the most important currency
As a debtor

I agree the last thing china wants is war - they have far more serious problems to attend to.

 

[BuSOF]

Hey, could you guys help? I'm desperately trying to find the picture with that concrete-made mock-up of a chinese aircraft carrier some 20 meters into the water. I'm not talking 'bout the same thing in the amusement park.

 

[dioditto]

I'm happy to say those on the Hill are waking up to the trade imbalance and one of the first orders of business are to cancel our free-trade agrement with China unless they stop devalueing their currency. The mantra is "Fair-trade"... we can expect to see a threat of increased tariffs if China doesn't respond. Prepare for Trade Wars 07' :ar15

I think you should stop reading the propoganda from the whitehouse for once. If you really want to blame China's currency devaluation, you might want to know that JAPAN, has the most undervalued currency in the world. Japan's yen is now even cheaper than China's yuan. According to you, then we should also put Japan on the tariff.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7975056

 

[dioditto]

What can your politicans do? Which categories of goods will voters put up with not being able to buy, or having to pay twice as much for?

What the USA needs to do is put its own house in order. The US trade deficit isn't because of China, it's because Americans are living beyond their means, borrowing (largely from China! Look at who buys US bonds) instead of producing. China is, in effect, subsidising the US government deficit by buying US bonds, allowing the USA not to tax Americans. And you think this is something China is doing to harm you? nfloorl:

Tell me, how is the US government going to sell the tax rises, or spending cuts, to make up for the lack of Chinese money currently financing your budget deficit? Who do you think paid for your shiny new F-18E? :nutkick

BTW, the Chinese government sees Chinas trade surplus as a problem, & is trying to boost domestic consumption to bring it down. That's why they're sloooowly raising the exchange rate. But they're scared of the consequences of drastic measures. Don't want the dollar to slump & devalue the $700 billion they have stashed away, don't want to disrupt their own economy, & are terrified of a big turn-down in export industries & any resulting unemployment.

It's very easy to blame others for their own mistake. That's just the nature of the things.

 

[crobato]

Interesting enough the chinese revalues and the oil prices drop - simultaneously.

Because the US economy is slowing.

I generally agree with FSMonster

This is the way the USA tells China that the only party benefitting from China's undervalueing the currency is the Russians.

The USA has a tight hold on China every which way:
As a military power
As a controller of oil prices
As a controller of the most important currency
As a debtor

I agree the last thing china wants is war - they have far more serious problems to attend to.

I don't think the US controls the oil prices to let it go so high anyway to hurt their car driving constituents deeply in the wallet. A rise in oil prices hurt Americans the most because of its dependency on autos for transportation, as opposed to public transportation. As a debtor, I think having 8 trillion in debt is not something to brag about. By God, the US pays China nearly at least 10 billion every year just for the interest alone and that's more than three times what China paid for arms from Russia at their peak of buying.

And the way Swerve is describing, does not sound like the Fed is in control of the US Dollar, but the Chinese Central Bank.

BTW, the Chinese government sees Chinas trade surplus as a problem, & is trying to boost domestic consumption to bring it down. That's why they're sloooowly raising the exchange rate. But they're scared of the consequences of drastic measures. Don't want the dollar to slump & devalue the $700 billion they have stashed away, don't want to disrupt their own economy, & are terrified of a big turn-down in export industries & any resulting unemployment

 

[SATAN]

Interesting enough the chinese revalues and the oil prices drop - simultaneously.

I generally agree with FSMonster

This is the way the USA tells China that the only party benefitting from China's undervalueing the currency is the Russians.

The USA has a tight hold on China every which way:
As a military power
As a controller of oil prices
As a controller of the most important currency
As a debtor

I agree the last thing china wants is war - they have far more serious problems to attend to.

Well, the recent Chinese ASAT test is giving the Pentagon nightmares. This is China's ultimate weapon - [the assasin's mace]

Also, without dirt cheap goods for the American Consumer and with more than $1.2 Trillion USD in reserves....it can easily win the war without even firing a bullet.

 

[Waylander]

The ultimate weapon?

- A capability which both the US and Russia/SU have for decades?
- The US are much more redundant in space than anybody else.
- The GPS sats for example are much higher at 30k.
- The US still have the capability to bomb every possible stationary launch station and to reach deep into the country and touching nearly every important facilitiy there.


China remains much more vulnerable to US strikes than vice versa.