Canadian defense budget expected to rise to $20 billion.

[Ths]

PhillTaj very good post.

What I see in this information is:

A) A massive upgrade in light forces. All that wonderfull air transport capacity is just what you need for light forces - and they can keep considerable light forces supplied. The planned transports can keep about 500 tons in the air at the same time. We are talking about keeping a light force of 25.000 to 50.000 supplied by air - covering a vast area.

B) Three new icebrakers - which taken together with the Danish icebreaking patrollers give a new emphasis on the arctic.

Any links on the military Canadian Icebreakers ?

Very interesting - so that is a background for Hans Ø.

 

[Sea Toby]

It appears the Conservative government of Canada has got all of its ducks in a row to move on several military acquisition programs with the first item on the list being new transport planes, both Globemaster and new Hercules. There are other long overdue programs included in this year's budget: Replenishment/sealift ships, troop lift helicopters, heavy duty trucks, and search and rescue aircraft. Backbone material that should have been acquired earlier.

In the future, after a new defence review white paper, we'll see this government moving on new acquisition programs: tanks, frigates, fighters, and the new icebreakers. The second batch of programs will have more of a bite, beefing up the warfighting assets.

Outside of the Globemasters, the first batch should fly through cabinet easily. Canada's current difficulties supporting UN missions abroad will be tackled. Opposition will grow with the second batch, as the parties will have different agendas. The agenda which counts most is the agenda of the current government.

 

[contedicavour]

It appears the Conservative government of Canada has got all of its ducks in a row to move on several military acquisition programs with the first item on the list being new transport planes, both Globemaster and new Hercules. There are other long overdue programs included in this year's budget: Replenishment/sealift ships, troop lift helicopters, heavy duty trucks, and search and rescue aircraft. Backbone material that should have been acquired earlier.

In the future, after a new defence review white paper, we'll see this government moving on new acquisition programs: tanks, frigates, fighters, and the new icebreakers. The second batch of programs will have more of a bite, beefing up the warfighting assets.

Outside of the Globemasters, the first batch should fly through cabinet easily. Canada's current difficulties supporting UN missions abroad will be tackled. Opposition will grow with the second batch, as the parties will have different agendas. The agenda which counts most is the agenda of the current government.

It will be interesting to see how much time is needed to move towards the second batch... since the Tribal/Iroquois DDGs are now obsolete and need urgent replacement. The F18s need urgent updates. The army needs tanks that can belong on the battlefield and not in a museum...
Heck it's amazing what a decade of underspending can do to such good armed forces ! :shudder

cheers

 

[Sea Toby]

Yes, here is an example of underspending from the late nineteenth century. After the Civil War, the United States navy had hundreds of ships. Unfortunately, not one new ship was built for the navy over a period of almost 20 years. The United States spent much on its army, at first to occupy the South and then later fulfilling its Manifest Destiny, protecting pioneers opening up the West from the American Indians.

At the Samoan debacle in 1888, the US navy lost its entire Pacific fleet by a large typhoon, all three ships. The United States fleet had shrunk to less than 20 wooden hulled square rigged steamers, all of which were obsolete compared to British and German ironclads.

The US admirals were finally able to convince the government that their warships were obsolete. The reasoning of Mahan helped considerably. Because of the debacle at Samoa, American started to build a steel navy, the likes of which would win the Spanish-American war ten years later.

The Battleship Oregon had to sail all the way around South America to join the fight off Cuba and Puerto Rico from the Pacific. This warship did the most damage to the Spanish fleet. It wasn't long before President Teddy Roosevelt demanded a Panama Canal.

IF ONE COULDN'T GO 20 YEARS WITHOUT BUILDING NEW WARSHIPS IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY WITHOUT FACING BLOCK OBSOLESCENCE, HOW COULD ANY MAJOR NATION GO 20 YEARS IN THE TWENTIETH OR TWENTY FIRST CENTURY?

 

[Ths]

Skimming the Canadian defence whitepaper it seem the target is light forces of 18,500. Good estimate.

The climate is changing in the Arctic, which leaves a long northern coastline where there few years ago was a continous hellish ice desert all the way to Russia.There is thus the possibility of an invasion - this must a decent defence plan take into account.
Now - climate chage not withstanding - it is hardly tank country, so the about the only option is light forces, and as distances are more than considerable - air transport is about the only viable option.
The coastline is apparently to be patrolled by icebreakers and a supply ships to land an operational reserve to crush a possible landing.

The possibility of an invasion might be remote; but when it can be countered in a reasonable cost/effective manner....

At the same time this plan gives the opportunity to send forces to troublespots all over the world - keep them supplied. AND we are talking light forces that is very much in demand for such tasks.

 

[Whiskyjack]

Skimming the Canadian defence whitepaper it seem the target is light forces of 18,500. Good estimate.

The climate is changing in the Arctic, which leaves a long northern coastline where there few years ago was a continous hellish ice desert all the way to Russia.There is thus the possibility of an invasion - this must a decent defence plan take into account.
Now - climate chage not withstanding - it is hardly tank country, so the about the only option is light forces, and as distances are more than considerable - air transport is about the only viable option.
The coastline is apparently to be patrolled by icebreakers and a supply ships to land an operational reserve to crush a possible landing.

The possibility of an invasion might be remote; but when it can be countered in a reasonable cost/effective manner....

At the same time this plan gives the opportunity to send forces to troublespots all over the world - keep them supplied. AND we are talking light forces that is very much in demand for such tasks.

I know you did say remote possibility, but who is going to invade the north coast of Canada? I can understand economic, terrorist and criminal threats but invasion? I didn't even think there was any infrastructure up there for an attacking force to use.

 

[Britalian]

John Lehman, Navy Secretary under Reagan, commented that Britain's failure to update and properly fund it's armed forces, particularly the Navy, during the 60's and 70's meant that they were "caught short" in many crucial areas when the Falklands War unexpectedly came upon them. "Caught short" more accurately translates as "people died un-necessarily".
Canada has neglected it's defences for years. More than any other nation, they have relied on the protection of the USA. It is way past time for them to correct this. They should be called on it, often and adamantly. One British officer said the motto of the Falklands War was "you never know". Invasion from the north, or, for that matter, from any bloody direction you wish? Unlikely, but not impossible. Buying weapons and increasing capabilities that frighten off would-be aggressors saves money that would otherwise be spent on a war.

 

[Grand Danois]

I know you did say remote possibility, but who is going to invade the north coast of Canada? I can understand economic, terrorist and criminal threats but invasion? I didn't even think there was any infrastructure up there for an attacking force to use.

I agree there isn't. Ivasion is not an issue. However, there may be issues with the Russians acknowledging either Danish or Canadian sovereignty over the North Pole thorugh the Lomonosov Ridge.

Denmark hopes to claim North Pole

Note that both Denmark and Canada have ratified UNCLOS effective from 2004 and now have until 2014 to lay all their claims. Denmark and Canada are working cooperatively, in a friendly atmosphere ,and with mutually recognised criteria. I don't know the Russians stance, but judging from their behaviour in the Barents Sea, they aren't going to play nice.

Attachments from related seismic field work 2006.

 

[Whiskyjack]

Please do not read my comments as anti-spending, as I agree with the increased spending and that Canada needs the new equipment, it is a small world now days with Canada involved in combat ops in Afghanistan, which no one would have thought 6 years ago.

I just meant that defining your armed services to defend your country, when there is really no threat begs politicians and ‘interested parties’ to cut your budget based on the fact that no real threat exists. Base your defence on your interests on a global scale and what you really want to get out of it, then it gets harder to argue about!

 

[icelord]

I agree there isn't. However there may be issues with the Russians acknowledge either Danish or Canadian sovereignty over the North Pole thorugh the Lomonosov Ridge.

Note that both Denmark and Canada have ratified UNCLOS effective from 2004 and now have until 2014 to lay all their claims. Denmark and Canada are working cooperatively, in a friendly atmosphere ,and with mutually recognised criteria. I don't know the Russians stance, but judging from their behaviour in the Barents Sea, they aren't going to play nice.

Attachments from related seismic field work 2006.

So what your saying is that the Danes are going to invade Canada, with the Ruskis throwing in their assault force for a couple of Whales and Santa's shack

 

[Grand Danois]

So what your saying is that the Danes are going to invade Canada, with the Ruskis throwing in their assault force for a couple of Whales and Santa's shack

It's amazing what a couple of bottles of vodka can do.

We were that close to giving up Santas shack this year to the Finns. But that is another story...

 

[Whiskyjack]

So what your saying is that the Danes are going to invade Canada, with the Ruskis throwing in their assault force for a couple of Whales and Santa's shack

In relation to Russia, while I don't think that they threaten Canada, they have repaid ALL debt this year and are awash with oil and gas money, I think they have even indicated a US$188 billion modernisation of their armed forces and want the army to be 70% regular by 2010.

Ambitious, but they now have the money.

 

[Grand Danois]

Forgot to add this attachment. The arctic is not only about mineral wealth and fish stocks...

SLOC's Europe to Asia.

 

[Ths]

I think we should cast our collective mind back to the Danish-Canadian controversy over Hans Ø (between Greenland and Ellesmere Island).

More or less from the start it has been clear that this piece of realestate is just about the most valueLESS rock on the planet. And the talk about oil-eksploration is more than threadbare. Denmark has searched for oil various places around Greenland - and found it! About 1 pint!

The controversy resultet in a trip from Greenlands Command Station Grønnedal by the cutter of the Adlek-class - whose most offensive weapon is the armpit orchestra and hefty armoury of smelly socks.

Without access to classified information this seem like an excersise designed to resolve a military debate. Apparently the Danish Navy contended the replacement of the Adlek-class with the new patrollers:

- Icebreaking ability 70 cm.
- Helipad
- transport of a platoon of marines/SEAL's or whatever.

would be adequate for the job of protecting Thule Air Base.

Before that the Canadian Navy had used a considerably vessel to claim Hans Ø.

For this outsider the controvercy boiled down to the Danish Navy finding the Canadian solution over the top, and invasion as such was not on the cards; but an intrusion - of say company size - could not be excluded. This "invasion" with sabotage intentions should - according to Danish estimate - be allowed to get very footsore and get spanked in a ambush-like interception.
The US solution was a company sized interception force of marines.

The Canadians could have a motive to enlarge the threat to make it fit the other requirements for the Canadian Army and Navy. Such as international operations. Apparently the Canadians have more or less stuck to their guns.

Whiskyjack raises the interesting point: What is there to attack in Northern Canada?
Here we are left with even flimsier evidence: But it could be pointed out that the melting of the Polar cap is (militarily seen) a mixed blessing: One hand it increases a coastline on the other hand it reduces the posibility of hiding subs under the polar ice.
In the last - say 10 years - we've seen a reduced threat from Russian submarines and this has meant that the patrol line has been pushed from Greenland-Iceland-Fairisles to north of Iceland (evidence: Keflavik on Iceland has been disbanded and Thetis-class has made recce in the Northern fiords of Iceland.

It is understandable that these thoughts provoke a certain sceptisism - and it is put forward as a theory that can be disproved as new evidence filter through. If people not "in the know" want to penetrate the official and sanitised version we have to go out on a limb and risk getting egg on our face - and I've had my share in the years past. On the other hand I've avoided some patronising hindsight.

 

[Ths]

Thank You Grand Danois: I had quite forgotten Jens Munks disasterous attempt to find a passage north of Canada.

 

[Grand Danois]

Some things I have different views on.

• Hans Ø is an obscure artefact left over by mistake from earlier agreements on borders and EEZ.
  
  
• The new patrol ships aren't meant for the protection of Thule Air Base. The best protection of Thule is the extreme isolated locality of the base in itself.
  
  
• We (Denmark) have no intent nor posture towards deploying any forces towards Canada. Including long range patrol units.
  
  
• There is oil on Greenland. It's seeping put of the rocks in some areas... USGS estimates 114 bn barrels in the 95% confidence interval offshore of Western Greenland alone. The areas you refer to had little potential even before prospective drilling.

 

[Whiskyjack]

I think we should cast our collective mind back to the Danish-Canadian controversy over Hans Ø (between Greenland and Ellesmere Island).

More or less from the start it has been clear that this piece of realestate is just about the most valueLESS rock on the planet. And the talk about oil-eksploration is more than threadbare. Denmark has searched for oil various places around Greenland - and found it! About 1 pint!

The controversy resultet in a trip from Greenlands Command Station Grønnedal by the cutter of the Adlek-class - whose most offensive weapon is the armpit orchestra and hefty armoury of smelly socks.

Without access to classified information this seem like an excersise designed to resolve a military debate. Apparently the Danish Navy contended the replacement of the Adlek-class with the new patrollers:

- Icebreaking ability 70 cm.
- Helipad
- transport of a platoon of marines/SEAL's or whatever.

would be adequate for the job of protecting Thule Air Base.

Before that the Canadian Navy had used a considerably vessel to claim Hans Ø.

For this outsider the controvercy boiled down to the Danish Navy finding the Canadian solution over the top, and invasion as such was not on the cards; but an intrusion - of say company size - could not be excluded. This "invasion" with sabotage intentions should - according to Danish estimate - be allowed to get very footsore and get spanked in a ambush-like interception.
The US solution was a company sized interception force of marines.

The Canadians could have a motive to enlarge the threat to make it fit the other requirements for the Canadian Army and Navy. Such as international operations. Apparently the Canadians have more or less stuck to their guns.

Whiskyjack raises the interesting point: What is there to attack in Northern Canada?
Here we are left with even flimsier evidence: But it could be pointed out that the melting of the Polar cap is (militarily seen) a mixed blessing: One hand it increases a coastline on the other hand it reduces the posibility of hiding subs under the polar ice.
In the last - say 10 years - we've seen a reduced threat from Russian submarines and this has meant that the patrol line has been pushed from Greenland-Iceland-Fairisles to north of Iceland (evidence: Keflavik on Iceland has been disbanded and Thetis-class has made recce in the Northern fiords of Iceland.

It is understandable that these thoughts provoke a certain sceptisism - and it is put forward as a theory that can be disproved as new evidence filter through. If people not "in the know" want to penetrate the official and sanitised version we have to go out on a limb and risk getting egg on our face - and I've had my share in the years past. On the other hand I've avoided some patronising hindsight.

Fully agree that the area needs patrol and surveillance, as mentioned criminal, economic and terrorist threats are more likely IMHO. Spec ops are also more likely than a conventional war as well. Also to claim territory you have to be able to patrol and prove you can control it. Which in my opinion is where the Danish and Canadians are headed.

To conduct conventional ops to the north would place a great burden on logistics, as mentioned what infrastructure is up there? The Australian bare base model may be a good start as it would provide a base of ops for SAR and intermittent patrol etc.

My original point, which I did not get across well is that no one really has the capability conduct conventional ground ops to the north.

 

[Ths]

Pertaining to Santa's Shack:

I think Santa moved, when the indiginious population of Greenland ate Santa's reindeer - about the best dish in the Greenlandic cuisine; but it impared Santa's mobility.

 

[Grand Danois]

My original point, which I did not get across well is that no one really has the capability conduct conventional ground ops to the north.

The Danish do long range patrol with dog sleighs all the way from Daneborg and up to the highest northern point you can reach on land - anywhere.

The ‘Sirius Patrol’ of Greenland – Danish Special Forces in the High Arctic

The topmost Northeast portion of Greenland is largely uninhabited. The territory is comprised of a large area of preserved parkland. For sixty years, the Danes have monitored and protected this icy land using special forces, traveling by dog sledge and sea kayak. Sirius Patrol keeps a two-man team present in the area year-round. These rugged men monitor Danish sovereignty.

The dogs are bred expecially to pull the sledges and work with the personnel of the Sirius Patrol. As they are being raised, the pups are judged by their disposition. Any young pup that shows the least aggression towards its human handlers is put down. No one on patrol in a polar winter can afford an injury while breaking up a fight. The Sirius Patrol, named after the ‘Dog Star’, never travels by powered vehicles. If you are pinned down by wind and cold for days at a time, you can’t eat a skidoo.

http://www.sfu.ca/casr/id-arcticviking5.htm

I do agree that Denmark and Canada should increase their control of the arctic.

Edit: Sorry. You meant conventional.

 

[Ths]

Grand Danois: This is Your turf, so I have a couple of questions:

1. If it is seeping out of the rock, why hasn't it been exploited?
2. If the prospect were low where they drilled, why didn't they drill where the probability was high?