The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
First of all, it is not up to me or you to decide who deserves what and decisions of any sovereign state. You answered your own statement. It is not up to you what Ukraine determines it needs to do to defend it's national sovereignty. If Ukraine feels that allowing Russia to profit in any way that allows it to prolong it's imperalist ambitions to the detriment of Ukraines very survival then they are absolutley in their right to hold an intervention.
Like I said, amazing stuff. We basically let Ukraine decide how Germany, France, Italy, Canada, -insert name-, and, furthermore, NATO conduct their own business and we have no problems with Ukraine a foreign state attacking and destroying anyone’s infrastructure as they see fit. Makes a lot of sense, of course. And par for the course.

Imagine, a country attacking multiple NATO members with no repercussions whatsoever because they are defending their sovereignty, while having a complete disregard for the sovereignty of the said members of the Alliance. And the latter is completely irrelevant too.
 
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rsemmes

Active Member
Germany and Japan were broke in 1945 , but managed to continue war production.
So...
How long before Russia goes actually broke?
How long after that can Russia manage to continue war production and keep fighting in Ukraine?
If after all that China decides to finance Russia, how long can Russia "keep in the fight"?

In short, how many years does NATO (Ukraine) has to "hold"?
 

rsemmes

Active Member
It is not up to you what Ukraine determines it needs to do to defend it's national sovereignty.
So, it is not up to you what Russia determines it needs to do to defend it's national sovereignty or whatever high horse statement Russia decides to sell.
Correct?
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Even the most casual reader will understand the situational moral differences between UKR and Iran.
Not the point, but yes, Iran is not sinking boats in the Caribbean.
Do you want to lead this forum to "morals", are you sure?

Why should the west support Iran a terrorist state much like Russia?
As far as I can remember, Iran was not financing the Taliban, nor the Contra.
Not the point, again.
 
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deyhere

New Member
Ukraine is not winning the war by any margin, just look at the battle field, if things continue like this into 2023, Ukraine is done
Ukraine is not winning the war by any margin, just look at the battle field, if things continue like this into 2024, Ukraine is done
Ukraine is not winning the war by any margin, just look at the battle field, if things continue like this into 2025, Ukraine is done
Ukraine is not winning the war by any margin, just look at the battle field, if things continue like this into 2026, Ukraine is done

UKR can stop fighting and be another vassal state of RU any time it wants. They choose otherwise.

I eagerly await the tired response that many UKR have fled the conflict.
The problem is, the Russians are not stopping and i don't see any indication that they will stop any time soon. Ukrainian long range drone strikes into Russia, is hurting the Russians but not enough to halt the Russians.
Russia can do this for a long time from the looks of it and they don't seem to be in a hurry.

Lets see who starts begging for a ceasefire first.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
The key is that I try and read other peoples posts, you do not, nor are you willing to try and provide proper context for the different points.

But you already know that. You could of taken the time to properly format your post in question so it could foster a proper exchange of view points, as requested, but instead....you just post nothing of consequence.

When, for example, have you recently posted anything of informational value, such as my recent posts on the strike on the Boikiy ?

You are of course free to post as you see fit. I am not a moderator. It is not my job to force you to be relevant.
By the "ad hominen" I guess you mean CSIS, right?
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Going back to the 'In short, how many years does NATO (Ukraine) has to "hold"?'...

12:38
En Ukraine, des attaques de drones russes ont fait au moins trois morts samedi
En Ukraine, dans l’oblast de Zaporijia, une attaque de drones russes contre des « infrastructures essentielles et industrielles » a fait deux morts, selon le chef de l’administration militaire locale, Ivan Fedorov.
Dans celui de Dnipropetrovsk, visée « près de 30 fois avec des drones et de l’artillerie », une personne a perdu la vie et trois ont été blessées dans le district de Kryvy Rih, a expliqué le chef de l’administration militaire régionale, Oleksandr Hanja, sur Telegram.
Les services de secours ukrainiens ont également fait état d’attaques de drones sur la ville d’Odessa, sans faire de blessé.

Russia didn't hit a vessel in dry dock, Ukraine doesn't have any, only hit 'essential infrastructure'. Maybe, instead of pointing at one spectacular hit it would be more accurate to measure how many hits can be delivered and how many can be taken?
Maybe pointing out at what gets hit instead of at how many Ukrainian children Ukraine has killed since 2022? Or since 2014? Unless, of course, we want to call it "collateral damage" only when it is an Ukrainian stray drone; hitting a Romanian port for example.

Edit
16:49
L’armée ukrainienne dit avoir touché deux sites militaires voisins de Saint-Pétersbourg et une raffinerie dans le kraï de Krasnodar
People vs places, isn't that like distorting the reality?
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
you have not proven my opinion false but you keep saying i know nothing about the topic, where does Ukraine get money from? intelligence? weaponry? advice? missiles? who pays the civil servants? look at anthony bliken openly planning Ukraine offensive
Do you have a problem understanding English? Blinken wasn't "openly planning [a] Urainian offensive". He spoke in general terms of a Ukrainian counter-offensive which had already happened, & the long term aim of a just peace.

I see that when you're obviously wrong, such as your false claims about foreigners working in arms factories in Ukraine, or Ukraine not making weapons, you continue to claim you're right, while changing tack.
 

Vanquish

Active Member
Like I said, amazing stuff. We basically let Ukraine decide how Germany, France, Italy, Canada, -insert name-, and, furthermore, NATO conduct their own business and we have no problems with Ukraine a foreign state attacking and destroying anyone’s infrastructure as they see fit. Makes a lot of sense, of course. And par for the course.

Imagine, a country attacking multiple NATO members with no repercussions whatsoever because they are defending their sovereignty, while having a complete disregard for the sovereignty of the said members of the Alliance. And the latter is completely irrelevant too.
Imagine a country attacking a sovereign nation with little to no repercussions other than sternly worded statements. Ukraine needs to stop Russia from profiting off the war to have any hope of survival. Seems they thought this was one necessary step.
 

Vanquish

Active Member
So, it is not up to you what Russia determines it needs to do to defend it's national sovereignty or whatever high horse statement Russia decides to sell.
Correct?
Apparently as Russia doesn't listen to me or you. I'm sure Russia can just complain out loud about being careful not to cross another red line.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Looks like it’s being used in broader areas far from the frontline though
Well it appears for now they're training on them.

free stuff is bad, when you take too much free stuff, you lose dignity and respect then you gradually become a tool to be used by the donor. without NATO boots on the ground, Ukraine will never win this war
Victory and defeat are defined politically. So what it means for Ukraine to "win" is a question of their leadership. Many have pointed out political survival as an independent country as a victory. While this isn't the stated requirement by their own leadership who often talked about recapturing all Ukrainian territory including Crimea, this certainly could be regarded as a victory. And if that's the victory condition, it's likely Ukraine already won. Especially since even the maximalist Russian demands at this time wouldn't change that.

its just my opinion and i am open to learning.

Yes, Ukraine makes all this equipment you listed and more but where did they get the money from? Ukraine is broke and very corrupt, Andriy Yermak, Zelenskys former chief of staff and right hand man was arrested for money laundering, that says it all.
i will bet my last that most of these production lines you mention are being manned by westerners, if not Ukrainians will steal all of the money and nothing will be done.
What an absurd claim. While Ukraine certainly cooperates with western firms, and some of Ukraine's own defense firms are operating in western countries, the idea that production lines within Ukraine are manned by westerners is ridiculous. Ukraine was an industrial republic under the USSR, and while it's lost capacity since then, there's no reason to think they can't continue industrial output to some degree. What exactly that degree is, is up for discussion. But the biggest factor wouldn't be the manning of the factories, it would be the ability of these factories to operate under continued Russian strikes.

Russia pretends that it doesn't see that the extend of western support to Ukraine is enormous,
The opposite is true. Russia has been very vocal about their displeasure with the extent of western support, and with good reason.

but if you follow Russian media, you will see that Putin is coming under some serious pressure to act directly against western supporters and thats really bad.
I don't believe this is true. Russian media is tricky, and the larger outlets are not publishing things the state doesn't want them to publish. The state itself isn't completely unified, so there's room argue that this is a case of the towers of the Kremlin arguing among themselves, but it's certainly not a reliable indicator. These publications could be Russia wanting the west to think that this is the case, and convince them to reduce support somewhat, or not increase it further. We just don't know.

To summarise.

"The west" should do nothing.
Well a position one could take might be - "let's sell Ukraine to Russia for the best price we can get". It's an ugly position, but European countries have done ugly things before. Some recent elections in a few countries indicate that this position might be getting more common.

Oh yes. That is the story the Russians tell us for 5 years now.
Is it the story Russia has been consistently telling us for 5 years now? I don't think Russia has had a consistent narrative about the direction of the war, and for the past couple of years the narrative of ending the war has become increasingly nebulous with victory occasionally claimed to be "close" but with no particulars.

UKR can stop fighting and be another vassal state of RU any time it wants. They choose otherwise.
Again the deal on the table since Istanbul '22 has not required Ukraine to become a vassal state.

First of all, it is not up to me or you to decide who deserves what and decisions of any sovereign state. You answered your own statement. It is not up to you what Ukraine determines it needs to do to defend it's national sovereignty. If Ukraine feels that allowing Russia to profit in any way that allows it to prolong it's imperalist ambitions to the detriment of Ukraines very survival then they are absolutley in their right to hold an intervention.
If Ukraine feels that civilians on a beach in Italy are a threat to their sovereignty, do they get to murder them too? The argument is absurd. Countries generally aren't allowed to attack the infrastructure of other countries' they're not at war with. It's an illegal act of aggression. Ukraine has no more right to attack North Stream then Russia has to attack an LNG terminal in Europe, under the same logic.

Do you have a problem understanding English? Blinken wasn't "openly planning [a] Urainian offensive". He spoke in general terms of a Ukrainian counter-offensive which had already happened, & the long term aim of a just peace.

I see that when you're obviously wrong, such as your false claims about foreigners working in arms factories in Ukraine, or Ukraine not making weapons, you continue to claim you're right, while changing tack.
Unfortunately political leaders have used terms like "counter-offensive" even when they're not really appropriate, so what they talk about vs what's actually happening on the ground can be quite different. Ukraine's '23 summer offensive was often called a counter-offensive though in reality that front line (from the Dnepr to Ugledar area) had been static for about a year prior.
 

Vanquish

Active Member
The question of what is an illegal act of aggression seems to also be one of what red line one is willing to cross. Blowing up civillians on a beach doesn't seem to me to be on the same level as blowing up an inantimate object. I suspect countries having their airspace meddled with such as with GPS spoofing should also be a serious red line. Perhaps an oil tanker ends up on a beach or a passenger plane ends up accidently over Russia and gets shot down due to GPS spoofing. Blowing up Nordstream obviously would have upset European countries but evidently not enough to stop supporting Ukraine.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
So...
How long before Russia goes actually broke?
Given that the topic was about Ukraine, Im not sure the genesis of your question about RU.

To take a stab at an answer - I have no idea. How "broke" is "broke" ? RU is defecit spending, but I serisouly doubt there will be anything like a general economic collapse, nor should anyone want one. More and more spending in the RU budget is spent on one time use items (cruise missiles, tanks, ships, etc). while incoming funds are declining. Ultimately the civilian sector will continue to get squeezed harder and harder.

So, to summarize - no collapse I can see, just increasing misery for the hostage RU population.

How long after that can Russia manage to continue war production and keep fighting in Ukraine?
Indefinitely, I think. One possible except is that if the embargo on tech items gets real, this might put a pinch on some items that require them.

If after all that China decides to finance Russia, how long can Russia "keep in the fight"?
Why would China throw RU a free line of credit ? The relationship between CH and RU is coin-operated.

In short, how many years does NATO (Ukraine) has to "hold"?
NATO is not UKR. Clearly. NATO doesnt really have to do much other than continue to throw UKR a pittance in old equipment.

UKR will continue to fight for some time I expect. How long ? I cant accurately predict. As long as they have the minimum amount of resources, personnel and equipment, they will remain determined to not be Russian.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Not the point, but yes, Iran is not sinking boats in the Caribbean.
Do you want to lead this forum to "morals", are you sure?
Iran seems to be trying to sink shipping in the gulf.

Are you objecting to destroying drug smuggling boats in the Carribean ? I dont. The more, the better.

As far as I can remember, Iran was not financing the Taliban, nor the Contra.
Not the point, again.
Belongs in another forum.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
The problem is, the Russians are not stopping and i don't see any indication that they will stop any time soon. Ukrainian long range drone strikes into Russia, is hurting the Russians but not enough to halt the Russians.
Russia can do this for a long time from the looks of it and they don't seem to be in a hurry.
They are _being_ stopped. The battlefield gains are not worth the apparent cost. Social pressure in RU is increasing. The economy is worsening. Second-Rate Stalin is 73, older than the typical survival rate or older than other RU leaders since Stalin.

Tick-Tock, tick-tock, death comes to us all, and Putin is in overtime.

So who folds first ? I cant say. Maybe RU, maybe UKR.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Again the deal on the table since Istanbul '22 has not required Ukraine to become a vassal state.

One of the points was for UKR to disarm to a force structure of 85K men.

Czechoslovakia 38, all over again. Disarm first, get rolled over later.

Unless you think the "security guarantee" veto RU held would be used in the defense of UKR ?

Istanbul 22 = vassal state.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The question of what is an illegal act of aggression seems to also be one of what red line one is willing to cross. Blowing up civillians on a beach doesn't seem to me to be on the same level as blowing up an inantimate object. I suspect countries having their airspace meddled with such as with GPS spoofing should also be a serious red line. Perhaps an oil tanker ends up on a beach or a passenger plane ends up accidently over Russia and gets shot down due to GPS spoofing. Blowing up Nordstream obviously would have upset European countries but evidently not enough to stop supporting Ukraine.
Correct, but consider the position that was taken. The country itself gets to decide? Clearly there's more to it than that.


One of the points was for UKR to disarm to a force structure of 85K men.

Czechoslovakia 38, all over again. Disarm first, get rolled over later.

Unless you think the "security guarantee" veto RU held would be used in the defense of UKR ?

Istanbul 22 = vassal state.
I don't think that's necessarily true. Finland faced similar issues during the Cold War but they didn't end up a Soviet vassal state, and it wasn't their military power that prevented it. WWII analogies are popular but I don't think they fit here, the situation is just too different. In general I think that Ukraine needs security guarantees from the west and economic development. If they get both, and they're credible, they can maintain a small domestic military. If they don't, a large military will still face ultimate defeat. And of course the cost of continuing fighting is making future defense more difficult. A Ukraine with 35mln population and a decent amount of western investment could become quite strong. A Ukraine with 15mln population, and crumbling infrastructure could be easy pickings. The best defense to Russian expansionism is a firm, economically successful, and politically stable Ukraine. An impoverished, smaller Ukraine militarized with western aid, but economically in poor shape is a recipe for a continuation war.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Iran seems to be trying to sink shipping in the gulf.

Are you objecting to destroying drug smuggling boats in the Carribean ? I dont. The more, the better.



Belongs in another forum.
Indeed...
Hopefully Vanquish knows that declaring someone terrorist belongs somewhere else. Someone you don't like, I mean.

You realize your relativism there, right? Russia declares a Polish driver "smuggler" and kills him: you celebrate that one too? Can Russia declare all Ukrainians "enemy combatants" or, for you, it all depends on who is doing the killing?
 

Vanquish

Active Member
Indeed...
Hopefully Vanquish knows that declaring someone terrorist belongs somewhere else. Someone you don't like, I mean.

You realize your relativism there, right? Russia declares a Polish driver "smuggler" and kills him: you celebrate that one too? Can Russia declare all Ukrainians "enemy combatants" or, for you, it all depends on who is doing the killing?
It's your constant whataboutism in almost every post that led me to respond in the first place. Whataboutism and redlines. Here's one, Putin is internationally recognized as a war criminal by the ICC. Does anyone seriously think he will ever be arrested and stand trial? You have a penchant for supporting Russian actions by way of whataboutisms. That's just your posting style which you seem to think is effective. My point is that we can all discuss redlines and whataboutisms ad nauseam. Then the real fun begins as we all know what should happen ethically morrally or legally may not happen based on what the repercussions might be.

I'm just of the opinion that some countries follow international law and order closer that others. Your position is stop criticising Russia when there are other bad actors out there. Perhaps a thread should be started to discuss international order and we can then rank countries based on which is most likely to follow international rules based order to the least most likely.
 
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