Apparently, following your logic, they want to die. Because they're already hitting tankers. And there are already impacts on the traffic through the strait.
The "Skylight" oil tanker is on fire after it was attacked by Iran in the Straight of Hormuz.
t.me
UKMTO reports that a vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile 50 nautical miles north of Muscat, Oman. A fire occurred in the engine room, but it is now under control.
t.me
‼️ Появилось видео атакованного Ираном танкера у побережья Омана, судно тонет ▪️Танкер "Skylight" шёл под флагом Палау, сообщает IRIB. Экипаж судна был эвакуирован, среди членов экипажа есть пострадавшие. ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
‼️ КСИР нанесли удар по еще одному судну, которое пыталось пересечь Ормузский пролив ⚠️Подписаться на RV: MAX | t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
По данным агентства «Reuters» со ссылкой на источники в сфере морской безопасности: танкер МKD VYOM, перевозивший сырую нефть с Маршалловых островов, был поражен дроном-камикадзе у берегов Омана. Осведомитель
t.me
Все больше судов скапливается у входа в Ормузский пролив, так и не решаясь пересечь его после иранского удара по одному из нефтяных танкеров. Однако, некоторые корабли все еще продолжают его проходить, несмотря на имеющуюся угрозу. Военный Осведомитель
t.me
This is not the "entire leadership". This covers
some of their top leadership. Chains of succession are quite long. Moreover the reaction on the ground seems to be quite different from what you anticipated. Instead of anti-regime sentiment, there are crows chanting "death to America" in the streets, and there are protests in neighboring countries that include attempts to enter US embassies. The population isn't rising up against the Iranian government, at least at this point. I suspecting bombing that girls' school didn't help.
t.me
You've simply restated your claims, you haven't provided any actual comparison. I've not seen any good data, but it seems to me that the current response from Iran is comparable, if not more robust, than what they did last time. I don't see any obvious signs that their response capability is degraded. Moreover the geography of their strikes appears to be greater than last time, with US facilities all over the region getting hit.
Базы США на Ближнем Востоке, подвергшиеся подтвержденным ударам со стороны Ирана за прошедшие 24 часа. Военный Осведомитель
t.me
I do think Iran has prepared poorly for this round of "pleasantries". They have front row seats to Russia's strike campaign in Ukraine, enabled by ideas borrowed from the Iranian playbook, with the use of cheap drones as long range strike platforms and missiles as high-end pieces of a combined strike package. But we're not seeing hundreds (it should really be thousands) of Shaheds being used to hit targets all over the place, raising serious questions. Some Shaheds are being used, and it appears that even relatively small quantities of them have the potential to penetrate hostile airspace and hit targets, but the volume isn't there. We do know there has been quite the air defense effort, including using fight jets to down inbounds, so perhaps what we're seeing get through is the result of that.
However stockpiles of munitions are limited, and the US and Israel aren't prepared to keep this campaign up for the next 6 months at this level of intensity. One potential move for Iran is to simply sit it out, and let US stockpiles of munitions decrease.
And then what?
Much of their missile arsenal is in hardened underground facilities, and many of the TELs don't need dedicated launch pads. You can degrade their volley size by hunting TELs, which might be part of the current problems Iran faces, but I don't think the capability goes away completely.
This does not appear to be true. The strikes appear to mostly be with stand-off munitions done from the edges and UAS inside Iran's airspace. And Iran has shot down at least some UAVs indicating they still have at least elements of GBAD active. I don't think Iran's IADS is rolled back to the point where the west can rule the skies of Iran. And timeline wise this wouldn't make sense. Operations like that tend to take weeks, not a couple of days, when we're talking about a whole country. This is where stockpile depletion becomes a concern. Last time hostilities ended long before air dominance could be achieved over Iran.
