The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

I cannot quite agree with the "good" part.

It seems that he (Harry Halem, Iternational Relations and Economics) agrees with me... for the most part.

Ukraine liberated right-bank Kherson Oblast
-I disagree, Russia abandoned the right bank. Yes, there was pressure but Jerson was not Bajmut; there was no batte for Jerson.
Russia, meanwhile, has obvious training constraints.
-Obvious? We have seen Russian infantry clearing trenches and dugouts, what are those constrains?
Russian troops advance in small units over several days, taking high casualties
-That is an often repeated mantra, but we don't have the actual casualty list of both sides for any given operation; Russia is returning 1.000 corpses, Ukraine 38.
supporting the Kremlin’s political efforts to compel Kyiv to accept a punitive peace deal.
-The Ukrainian situation is worse that in Istanbul, Ukraine should not expect a better deal now.
In each conventional conflict, only the United States fielded a force-wide reconnaissance-strike complex.
-This is a peer to peer conflict, like the Iraq-Iran was. "Expectation tended to outrun execution."
Historically speaking, protracted positional warfare...
-He should have avoided the whole paragraph.
makes a breakthrough extremely difficult, generating the firepower needed, massing forces without detection
-The same old problems every general had to face are even more complex today.
Once detected, a reconnaissance-strike complex allows the defending commander to rapidly concentrate fire
-If he has and can concentrate that fire. (Below, "fire superiority".)
by Ukraine’s deficit of infantry.
-That million of abducted men?
Volume of drone usage helps.
-Russian superiority.
Ukraine is likely to close this middlestrike gap in the coming months.
-Without electricity, how likely?
Ukrainian firms are producing middlestrike drones at a high rate.
-Why Russian firms cannot keep producing more than no-electricity Ukrainian firms?
Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces has fielded new counter-drone weapons that will likely improve middlestrike effectiveness.
-Only Ukraine? I have been arguing in favor of more counter-drone weapons for some time now.
If a high enough concentration of middlestrikes is synchronized with mechanized forces, then in principle, it would be possible to effect a breakthrough.
-You have to achieve "fire superiority", as simple an as old as that.
UAS employment to support advancing mechanized forces, a problem that artillery faces during the exploitation phase of a combined-arms fight.
-SP artillery and air support, it has been invented already; you will have to move your drone teams too.
Russia’s political leadership does not seem to have demanded that its military execute a real breakthrough.
-It looks like he is saying that Russia does not want to advance faster.
confident in its (Russian) ability to maintain its current level of pressure for several years.
-He forgot to mention that Russia will collapse... in a couple of weeks.

About Beltramy...
He doesn't know that Malta is a country or he doesn't think that it is in the Mediterranean. He called (Russian Thread) bullfighting a "sport", it has been called "art", also torture; it is a spectacle. Maybe he never read (in general?) about generals killed by cannonballs; not a common occurrence in WWII. He mentioned the Spanish Empire. Well, US had slaves and was killing Indians too. How was he comparing the Spanish Empire to the Russian Empire, that had a chunk of America too? The French Empire, the British Empire... the Hittites, the Nubian Pharaohs, Alexander the Great? Did he mentioned the Mexica or the Inca Empire and how many Indians they killed? Talking about advancing slowly... he mentioned the "Conquista", also known as Reconquista, it took 800 hundred years. Yes, he was talking of America, if you don't know about something or you don't like it, just pretend it doesn't exists; like Malta.
As far as I can remember, because it was posted here, we had that admiral in a news conference after that strike.
I don't know if he is so proud of his ignorance that he wants to make sure that everyone knows about it all the time or if he is just a child with a, permanent, tantrum.
Unfortunately another russian propagandist. Quite boring but predictable.

As for why ukraine is so good in repairing igs energy grid...well it has us who support it. We send generators and tech. Ukraine has the civilized world stand with it.
 

Hoover

Member
@rsemmes and Beltrami:
It is quite boring following your non-discussions.
rsemmes is clear pro-russian, Beltrami is clear pro-ukraine, both with their own single sided points of view.

Maybe you`ll start your own thread?
 

rsemmes

Active Member
Is there anything unusual going on NW of Ivanivka?

That area has been infiltrated(?) for a couple of days now, but...

that was 2 days ago.

PS
Pro-reality, Hoover, unless you think that the existence of Malta is Russian propaganda.
And that no Russian ships will sail the Mediterranean, even after France released that single ship...
And that one missile hitting one building a long time ago means anything, besides a "dead" admiral giving a press conference...
Maybe you are happier than me about fantasy posted here.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It's more of the usual back and forth. I don't think anything major is brewing in this area.

Here's an interesting piece from frontelligence that says the quiet part out loud; sanctions aren't particularly good at hindering Russia's war effort. You'll note they're talking about a facility for the production of the 2A88 gun, meant for the 2S35 Koalitsiya. But Russia still clearly has a shortage of tracked chassis production. Perhaps some of those T-72A chassis being hauled off to the factory are meant for conversion. Or perhaps we will see a wheeled variant on the BAZ truck chassis but with the new gun.

 

rsemmes

Active Member
It's more of the usual back and forth. I don't think anything major is brewing in this area.

Here's an interesting piece from frontelligence that says the quiet part out loud; sanctions aren't particularly good at hindering Russia's war effort. You'll note they're talking about a facility for the production of the 2A88 gun, meant for the 2S35 Koalitsiya. But Russia still clearly has a shortage of tracked chassis production. Perhaps some of those T-72A chassis being hauled off to the factory are meant for conversion. Or perhaps we will see a wheeled variant on the BAZ truck chassis but with the new gun.

Thanks.

And yes, business first.
"The government has been urged to re-examine a British company’s contract to export hi-tech machinery to Armenia, after the Guardian uncovered links to the supply chain for Russia’s war machine."

Including oil through the "back door".
 

rsemmes

Active Member
The same thing...
We will have to wait for a few days to see is Russia is actually entering Novodmitrivka.

"Russian attacks damaged production sites of Ukraine’s state-run oil and gas company Naftogaz in the Poltava and Sumy regions, the company’s CEO said on Monday. The facilities in the Poltava region came under attack for a second day in a row, Sergii Koretskyi said on Facebook, adding it was the 20th attack on the company’s infrastructure since the start of the year."

It has been 20 attacks (in 40 days) and it doesn't say that it had to shut down. On the other hand, it says, in the same link...
"Kyiv’s general staff said on Monday its forces still held the northern part of Pokrovsk and were also defending the smaller city of Myrnohrad nearby."


Maybe Russia just need to buy (not doing it) 100 Chinese (not selling it) ZTZ-100 to launch (not doing it) that armoured offensive. Maybe Russia has to turn the Armata into a "weapons system" (I don't think we'll see it in this war) and develop (or copy the Chinese model, that would be "Karma") its own "support vehicle" (a drone-bias version of the BMPT-72).
Russia is already using those T-72 hulls, I have been talking of improvising those systems on old BRDM/BTR; that Russia is already using too.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
As far as things brewing goes, Ukraine is once again attempting to counter-attack the eastern Zaporozhye front line, this time by a combination of attacks across the Volchya, and from the west towards the Gaychur. They've recaptured several villages, including Tikhoe, Orestopol', Gay, and Alekseevka. They've also pushed Russia out of Ternovatoe.

This comes even as Russia may finally be stabilizing their lines into Kupyansk with the Russian gains east of it continuing, and also Russia continuing to re-establish their foothold north of Kupyansk across the river.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
@rsemmes and Beltrami:
It is quite boring following your non-discussions.
rsemmes is clear pro-russian, Beltrami is clear pro-ukraine, both with their own single sided points of view.

Maybe you`ll start your own thread?
I wouldn’t mind the exchange if it added anything useful, but it’s mostly sarcasm and recycled talking points.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
As far as things brewing goes, Ukraine is once again attempting to counter-attack the eastern Zaporozhye front line, this time by a combination of attacks across the Volchya, and from the west towards the Gaychur. They've recaptured several villages, including Tikhoe, Orestopol', Gay, and Alekseevka. They've also pushed Russia out of Ternovatoe.

This comes even as Russia may finally be stabilizing their lines into Kupyansk with the Russian gains east of it continuing, and also Russia continuing to re-establish their foothold north of Kupyansk across the river.
Given the manpower imbalance, how is Ukraine still able to mount counter-attacks at all? What factors make that operationally possible?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Putin is too primitive for my liking. Im not russian.

Here latest news about the star link cut off for russia, seems like the effect on russias drones is massive.

Ukraine-Russia war latest: ‘Catastrophe’ for Putin as front line cut off from vital Starlink satellites

Russia has no real alternative, looks like their drones are out of service
The overwhelming majority of Russian drones don't depend on Starlink or anything like it. And this is not the area where Russia's use of Starlink will cause the biggest problem. It will cause problems for front line comms. How severe the problems will be and how quickly Russia can adapt remains to be seen.

Given the manpower imbalance, how is Ukraine still able to mount counter-attacks at all? What factors make that operationally possible?
The front lines are fairly lightly manned, and the manpower imbalance really isn't that big. Ukraine has ~450 000 troops against 700 000+ Russian troops. It's less than 2:1. So it's still possible for Ukraine to gather forces and counter-attack. Remember, right after losing Pokrovsk Ukraine shifted resources to the area and counter-attacked repeatedly. Same thing with Kupyansk. I think the resources they've just sent to Zaporozhye have been pulled from one or both of those areas. In fact I would expect to see Russian gains around Biletskoe materialize as Ukraine shifts their priority to Zaporozhye area.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Literally Monty Python’s take on the current events - I have seen it all now:

IMG_3921.jpeg

Those who do not know, should google the author of the post, as well as the show. Also this (laughing):

 
Like pointing out at what it is unuseful? One missile hit one building in September... 2023!
Would you consider the sinking of the Moskva useful?

Or the destruction of 2 russian submarines?

I think its important to keep feeding Ukraine intel to allow exactly such high priority targets to be destroyed.





Russia is not a real industrialized country and has a very very low output in the higher end spectrum of assets. To replace submarines or ships it needs years. Thats exactly what the war in Ukraine is useful for.
 
In regards to the improved Kilo class sub (Kolpino ?) hit by a naval drone in Novorossiysk in December.


Satellite imagery shows that this sub moved or was moved a short distance, and was moved back to its original position.

Harbor debris clearing ? Seaworthiness testing ? Difficult to say without better resolution images.
If the pressure hull is cracked, the thing is basicly a complete loss. Which is a win for european security.
 
Top