Venezuela Update

[Big_Zucchini]

Also, today is marking “the day of bad takes” on social media, a first in a long time. All kinds of experts had contributed to the mess. It’s incredible. The “axis”, swapping Venezuela for Ukraine, Russian air defense does not work, etc. So much nonsense.

Perhaps, the “axis” doesn’t exist? It’s also funny how the members of the axis get added and subtracted depending on the happenings of the day.

That post by the open intel is rather funny though. Imagine Iranian “defensive systems” guaranteeing something in the backyard of the USA that they could not guarantee in Iran itself.

The listed "axis" is actually the same old axis as it is always mentioned, except North Korea is occasionally added or removed depending on how individually important they are perceived. Most would consider them a direct Chinese proxy not influential enough to matter on its own.
But Russia, China, Iran are the classic core of that axis.

Venezuela is not a proxy controller but it is the subject here and a proxy so it makes sense to insert here. No inconsistency here. The axis has a network of proxies, from east Asia through Europe and Africa to America.

Russian weapons not working is a valid analysis, just from past conflicts. At this stage it is entirely valid to suspect some "stand-down" order, as well as some prior coordination between the US and Maduro. Although some GBAD and comms were evidently struck.
But one could definitely conclude these weapons don't work well just by judging from different conflicts.

If there was no coordination and no stand-down order, then indeed air defenses didn't work. Not because not a single aircraft was downed. But because all civilian reported explosions were reported on the ground. No one reported seeing surface to air launches, which would be very well visible at night. Same for AAA tracers.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Ok on the topic of international law and legitimacy I must concede, this did cause some chain reaction and now we're seeing more violations.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007714201133883655

 

[KipPotapych]

People who honestly claim Russia invaded Ukraine because someone else did something remotely comparable and they felt a higher calling to balance and cancel any hypocrisy really needs to get themselves checked.

They invaded because they could. Simple as that. But that is from another thread.

The fact alone that you can twist good and evil, means that either you don't care about international law, or you'd really just rather Maduro stay in power.
Because any sane take would necessarily involve a key element of dictators = bad.

Is there a good and evil? Who says what is what beside one’s own comfort (call it beliefs, moral compass, what have you - all comes to comfort in the end, which you can rightfully call utility).

International law does not exist. See, I think, koxinga’s post above. There are those who follow the rules dictated to or imposed on them by those who can do whatever they want, limited only by the red line of an “equal” (none are really equal though, but can act like it in some circumstances), while doing all they can to prevent the emergence of parity (real perceived equality) or, worse yet, another’s dominance. You cannot have a law without an entity to observe over and enforce it. It’s worse than the Wild West, really.

Neither China, nor Russia or the United States care about the said law, but, maybe, some general guidelines.


A benevolent dictator produces the exact same outcome in the economic theory as the perfect free market, with perfect competition. Neither exists.

Yes, I personally think Maduro-like individuals (and Venezuela-like “systems”) are bad for humanity overall and people they rule in particular. I also think that shit that is happening in some places in Africa requires more urgent attention than anything else currently happening, but that ain’t close enough to anyone’s home to bother beyond taking advantage and extracting as much benefit for self as possible. What else is new though?

 

[KipPotapych]

The listed "axis" is actually the same old axis as it is always mentioned, except North Korea is occasionally added or removed depending on how individually important they are perceived. Most would consider them a direct Chinese proxy not influential enough to matter on its own.
But Russia, China, Iran are the classic core of that axis.

Or… there is no axis. Only self-interest, when it works.

If there was no coordination and no stand-down order, then indeed air defenses didn't work.

In order for something, a device that is not fully autonomous in particular, to work, one needs skill and organization, as well as discipline, at the very least. Further, one would need the supporting systems. And so on. The proposed theories, or rather supporting evidence presented by this event, are complete rubbish. You could give the latest US or Israeli military technology to the Venezuelans and the result would still be the same.

No one reported seeing surface to air launches, which would be very well visible at night.

There were a couple of videos I saw of such and the OSINT dudes/dudettes claiming Igla or some such (others saying it wasn’t). None is relevant to the (scope of the) discussion here though, I don’t think.

 

[KipPotapych]

Anyway, a good analysis of the situation.
Venezuela was a brewing conflict and it is true they were threatening Guyana and other areas around them, and started to increasingly sell out to other malicious actors like Iran.
And what he's saying is that 2nd term Trumpian policy is to deal with a threat while it's still small.

Venezuela Might Have Soon Started a War. Trump Made the Right Call on Maduro

Trump’s Maduro raid is framed as prevention, not provocation—arguing early force can avert a bigger regional conflict and stop Venezuela’s slide.

www.19fortyfive.com

We can always up the ante and go global prevention:

https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/49/3/7/128033/Putin-s-Preventive-War-The-2022-Invasion-of

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Is there a good and evil?

Yes.

International law does not exist. See, I think, koxinga’s post above. There are those who follow the rules dictated to or imposed on them by those who can do whatever they want, limited only by the red line of an “equal” (none are really equal though, but can act like it in some circumstances), while doing all they can to prevent the emergence of parity (real perceived equality) or, worse yet, another’s dominance. You cannot have a law without an entity to observe over and enforce it. It’s worse than the Wild West, really.

Neither China, nor Russia or the United States care about the said law, but, maybe, some general guidelines.

Yes.

A benevolent dictator produces the exact same outcome in the economic theory as the perfect free market, with perfect competition. Neither exists.

It does not. Dictatorships cannot overcome a basic limiting factor which is market trust. For investment to happen there must be trust.
Singapore can make do because it's small and there's a pretty low cap of how much foreign investment it can accept and relies a lot on the productivity and education of its population. Larger countries cannot work by that principle. They can grow more, but will feel that cap very early on.

And no one really goes by the benevolent dictator path because of the huge risk it involves. Most dicators are not benevolent. And even if you get one, the successor is another risky dice roll.

Or… there is no axis. Only self-interest, when it works.

Well then NATO and the Abraham Accords don't exist either.

Yes, I personally think Maduro-like individuals (and Venezuela-like “systems”) are bad for humanity overall and people they rule in particular. I also think that shit that is happening in some places in Africa requires more urgent attention than anything else currently happening, but that ain’t close enough to anyone’s home to bother beyond taking advantage and extracting as much benefit for self as possible. What else is new though?

That, and also African nations are notoriously incapable of maintaining stability even after receiving substantial help. So it's just not worthwhile.

In order for something, a device that is not fully autonomous in particular, to work, one needs skill and organization, as well as discipline, at the very least. Further, one would need the supporting systems. And so on. The proposed theories, or rather supporting evidence presented by this event, are complete rubbish. You could give the latest US or Israeli military technology to the Venezuelans and the result would still be the same.

There is a direct correlation between the political camp a country chooses (e.g. US, Russia, China etc) and a level of competence.
It certainly hasn't escaped me that countries sponsored by Russia have all, with few or no exceptions, really incompetent armed forces.
Countries sponsored by the US are far more likely to be competent. Or at least have islands of competence in their armed forces.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

We can always up the ante and go global prevention:

https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/49/3/7/128033/Putin-s-Preventive-War-The-2022-Invasion-of

Wait you actually think Putty invaded Ukraine as a preventive measure? Oh boy.

 

[Terran]

Ok on the topic of international law and legitimacy I must concede, this did cause some chain reaction and now we're seeing more violations.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007714201133883655

This statement in the tweet has a fundamental failure.

Breaking France and the United Kingdom just launched acts of aggression and violated the sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic in flagrant violation of the UN charter and international rules-based order, after spending all day, criticizing the United States for arresting Maduro a usurper who overthrew the rule of law and democracy in Venezuela for a decade. These strikes tonight by France and the United Kingdom clearly set a dangerous precedence for Xi to invade Taiwan

Emphasis in the Bold and Underlined.
Xi doesn’t in his mind need this precedent. The CCP claims Taiwan as part of China. The One China Policy is designed to isolate Taiwan and force the world or rather any country or organization that recognizes the PRC diplomatically to cede to that.
In the event of China moving to invade Taiwan they would state that the event is an internal affair. That they are acting to restore order to a lawless, secessionist territory via Martial law. As such the CCP Foreign Ministry would shoot down any attempt at argument of the legitimacy of their operations and demand the world keep its nose out of China internal politics. Xi’s Precedent is The Invasions of Tibet, East Turkistan, The Massacre of Tiananmen Square and CCP measures to drag Hong Kong into the mainland’s rules.
What has kept China from invading has primarily been the power dynamics of military force in the region. That the U.S. has a tacit mandate to defend Taiwan and that the Taiwanese have been armed and equipped to make the PLA invasion war plan best possible outcome a Pyrrhic victory. I am not sure why people assume China would use this action as justification when Mao and every CCP leader has reiterated again and again the One China principle. That being rooted in the perception of the CCP that the Chinese Civil War never ended, the Nationalists remain and refuse to acknowledge their defeat and the supremacy of the CCP.

For the Russians who are also pointed too. If Vladimir Putin thought the FSB and GRU capable of getting to Zelensky, he wouldn’t arrest him and put him on trial. Putin would put him on ice. Putin wouldn’t think twice of issuing a kill order.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

This statement in the tweet has a fundamental failure.

Of course it's a failure, the whole tweet is a joke about people who claim the Maduro heist sets some precedent for someone.

 

[KipPotapych]

Wait you actually think Putty invaded Ukraine as a preventive measure? Oh boy.

Will reply to the rest later (maybe). To this, however, the alternative is that I do not believe your cited “good analysis” has any more validity.

I do reject the “Oh boy” comment, however. But the discussion does not belong in this thread (and was discussed and will be discussed again, surely, in the thread it belongs in).

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Will reply to the rest later (maybe). To this, however, the alternative is that I do not believe your cited “good analysis” has any more validity.

I do reject the “Oh boy” comment, however. But the discussion does not belong in this thread (and was discussed and will be discussed again, surely, in the thread it belongs in).

Easier to say "Yes/No".

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Is it really though?

In short, he invaded to make a statement. Things don’t always go as planned though, especially when planned badly.

 

[personaldesas]

I’m sympathetic to moral narratives of good and evil, but most real world outcomes are better explained by individual predispositions interacting with incentive structures.

Anyone who thinks Trump tried to depose Maduro to fight “evil” or that Putin is fighting in Ukraine for the good of Russia, misunderstands how power actually operates.

Where benefits exist, they’re incidental.

 

[Volkodav]

When was his criminal record used as justification?

He has been taken to the US to face trial and there has been constant reference to "Narco State" as just litigation for the entire operation to date, including the fatal strikes on boats.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

He has been taken to the US to face trial and there has been constant reference to "Narco State" as just litigation for the entire operation to date, including the fatal strikes on boats.

That's the process he's facing when he's inside the US, because obviously there's the question of what is Maduro going to do in the US.
That's very different from the reason of grabbing him out of Venezuela. For all they care, he's an empty meat puppet past its due that can be discarded. But optics matter.

I’m sympathetic to moral narratives of good and evil, but most real world outcomes are better explained by individual predispositions interacting with incentive structures.

Anyone who thinks Trump tried to depose Maduro to fight “evil” or that Putin is fighting in Ukraine for the good of Russia, misunderstands how power actually operates.

Where benefits exist, they’re incidental.

You're missing the point.
You're analyzing this from the perspective of why the US specifically did something, but not its general impact on everyone.
I don't think there's anyone that doesn't benefit from this, even if just a little, except for Russia, China, Iran, Hamas, etc. Which makes it an objective good.

^ Is it really though?

Yes. And your deflection clearly shows you are in fact supportive of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Which is a counter-logical stance for someone to have if they live in the west.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I think there are a lot of strategic benefits to the US from this, I think there are a lot of benefits to allies and trade partners of the US, I think it benefits South American stability and hurts any axis nation (Russia, China, Iran, Palestine etc) that had a stake in Maduro's Venezuela.
I do not even consider the moral implications of this to see that it is objectively a good thing, although as a human being I am obviously also very happy for the Venezuelans who are currently celebrating.

But if anyone brings up the issue of international law and protests this action on that basis, then that's just an issue of law but do not pretend like it's a moral stance, because it's not a moral stance. It's an immoral stance. It's also okay to be immoral if you like. I'm not criticizing anyone for that.

 

[koxinga]

Of course it's a failure, the whole tweet is a joke about people who claim the Maduro heist sets some precedent for someone.

The whole Taiwan thing is just nonsense, but probably more relevant for their SCS claims. Same old referencing internal laws/claims to extend to extraterritorial rights. Funny to be reading Filippinos applauding this move and suggesting the US do the same to Xi, while failing to see that the same playbook is being applied to them.

Make no mistakes though, none of this is new. The US have done plenty of extraordinary rendition during the war on terror and this is just another form in a much larger scale. The brazenness is probably why people are shocked.

 

[personaldesas]

You're missing the point.
You're analyzing this from the perspective of why the US specifically did something, but not its general impact on everyone.
I don't think there's anyone that doesn't benefit from this, even if just a little, except for Russia, China, Iran, Hamas, etc. Which makes it an objective good

That’s already accounted for in what I wrote, and these incidental benefits don’t imply they’re the reason the action was taken, nor that they establish an “objective” good.

 

[KipPotapych]

Yes. And your deflection clearly shows you are in fact supportive of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Which is a counter-logical stance for someone to have if they live in the west.

P. S. You keep equating yourself to the lemmings, my man. “Clearly” though!

 

[Big_Zucchini]

P. S. You keep equating yourself to the lemmings, my man. “Clearly” though!

A person who is clear and of sound mind can answer a simple yes or no question without deflecting.