The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

rsemmes

Active Member
Suggest Russia doesn’t consider NATO a threat so much as Putin considers it an opportunity for domestic politics to play the hard man.
Putins “high horse”of playing the victim and defender of history has done nothing for Russia or Ukraine but brought death and damage on a grand scale.
Whatever you or I think,the reality of the situation is the vast majority of Ukraine’s depleted population of 2014 has migrated west not east.
There’s a reason for that!
This region faces generational challenges going forward because of one person.
Putin
Just another brutally vile character that one day will be confined to history.
Regards S
A very good point.
I wasn't privy to his considerations, I cannot give an informed opinion. I wasn't privy to French deliberations before sinking the rainbow Warrior either, but I hope you see the similarities.
(Please, allow me to point something out about unilateralism to someone else.)

Yes, we have (and had) a lot of them (brutally vile character) in our western democracies.

Edit.
For some reason, some people see blaming others as defending one. For me, you cannot blame one without blaming the rest.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
If Russia is the equivalent of the heroin-addict on the street, talking to the fire hydrants, why should we give the Russian opinion any merit.
Please, for our benefit, describe how the utterly depleted NATO forces of 2021 were a threat to Russia:
here is a space for you to lay out your arguments
----
Now, you may not believe that NATO was a threat, and you are in fact, being the Devil's advocate, which is fair enough. In which case, the point is that there is no rational analysis of military spending and force structures that leads a thinking human being to believe that NATO was about to invade Russia.
NATO is just a smokescreen. Putin.Doesnt.Care.About.NATO. If Putin was afraid of NATO, why did he remove virtually all Russian forces from Kaliningrad and the Finnish border ?
Putin.Doesnt.Care.About.NATO. It is nothing more than a convenient excuse for bad behavior.
A nuclear armed iran is a threat to a lot of the world. An Iranian nuke is a Hezbollah nuke.
(Should Cuba be allowed to have nuclear missiles in its territory? Should Pakistan be allowed to have the atomic bomb? "Be allowed", what is that? I consider the "be allowed" insulting (fairness, moral standards?) and the point irrelevant.)


I wonder if you are missing the point on purpose, you sound a bit like Donald Rumsfeld; the "unknown known" and all that.
It is not if it is a threat, but if Russia considers it a threat. Russia took an unilateral action, US just took an unilateral action, as western democracies has been taken unilateral actions, always based on their own considerations.

We don't like this unilateral action, it goes against our interest... All right, still, just another unilateral action.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
If Russia is the equivalent of the heroin-addict on the street, talking to the fire hydrants, why should we give the Russian opinion any merit.

Please, for our benefit, describe how the utterly depleted NATO forces of 2021 were a threat to Russia:

here is a space for you to lay out your arguments
----



----

Now, you may not believe that NATO was a threat, and you are in fact, being the Devil's advocate, which is fair enough. In which case, the point is that there is no rational analysis of military spending and force structures that leads a thinking human being to believe that NATO was about to invade Russia.
I think this is untrue. Russia is not Putin's personal empire. Russia has a ruling clan of oligarchs. And they watched what the US and NATO did in Yugoslavia with concerns for a reason. The 1999 rump-Yugoslavia that remained was not that different from the Russian Federation. It's a former socialist state, reduced to a fraction of its former power, with separatist movements in its borders that it was putting down violently. There were crimes committed by the separatists, and crimes committed by government forces. If NATO gets to decide the right and wrong, and militarily intervene in Yugoslavia in '99, is it so impossible that they could intervene in a potential Third Chechen War, if they don't like the behavior of Russian government forces and think they can make it stop with impunity? NATO is not a threat as long as Russia is strong, relatively united, and has a robust nuclear deterrent. But a weak and divided Russia, and NATO could quickly move in to secure nuclear weapons so they don't fall into the wrong hands (with NATO getting to decide who counts as the wrong hands), move in for humanitarian or "humanitarian" reasons, move in because Europe is dependent on gas, and wants to keep it flowing.

NATO is just a smokescreen. Putin.Doesnt.Care.About.NATO. If Putin was afraid of NATO, why did he remove virtually all Russian forces from Kaliningrad and the Finnish border ?
Which time period are you talking about specifically?

Putin.Doesnt.Care.About.NATO. It is nothing more than a convenient excuse for bad behavior.
I don't think this is true.

However, allow me to put some refinement on what you said. NATO was not created to oppose Russia. It was not created to invade Russia. It was created to oppose Russian expansion.
NATO wasn't created to bomb Libya or Yugoslavia, or fight the Taliban yet it did all of those things.

None of that changes the fact that:

1) No promises were made to not expand NATO
Yes there were. It's been linked to before in this very thread. They may have been relatively informal, but they existed.

its "relatively diplomatic" to constantly threaten nuclear war ? Dont get me wrong, we all know Medvedev is a vodka fueled convenient pawn for Putins ascent to power again. Of course, none of that matters now that Putin removed term limits. Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Fuhrer ! <--- you see the sarcasm here, dont you ?
I think it's a good example of Russian leadership genuinely fearing NATO. This is why they threaten nuclear weapon use.

Oh sure, thats why the US has 5-6 fully staffed divisions in Poland and eastern europe. <---- more sarcasm.

Let me clue you in to the west here: No one cares to invade Russia. Russia is under no threat from the US or Europe (seriously, how many European nations can field a single fully staffed combat brigade ?)
How many combat brigades did it require to turn Libya into a failed state?
 

Aleks.ov

New Member
I was about to accuse you of the same, but let us skip that and head to your arguments.
"It seems 'blaming' is the only thing you're reasonably good at.
1) No promises were made to not expand NATO
2) No one forced a country to join NATO.
NATO expansion is not merely a 'voluntary choice'—it's ignoring the oral agreements of the 1990s (Gorbachev, Baker) and the principle of 'no eastward expansion.' See the declassified talks in the George Washington University National Security Archive. The bombings of Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran are direct proof of the threat, and frankly, of aggression.
Let me remind you: Many, many people in Eastern Europe despise Russia as a country for being under the yoke of the USSR. They joined for a reason. Russia is once again proving the necessity of NATO.
The same applies to Britain and its former colonies. This is likely why Latvia holds solemn processions for Latvian SS legionnaires in its capital, Riga—where Russians make up at least 35% of the population—while imposing language restrictions in education, media, and government structures. Every 10th Russian speaker has the status of a so-called 'non-citizen.'
Was it as a big of an insult as the awful sectarian violence the Balkans experienced ? NATO made peace. Russia did not.
Classic Orwell: 'War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength.'
Yugoslavia, like many other countries (see the list above), should be 'grateful.'
...which conveniently leaves out the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of the two nations. Items are relatively cheaper in Russia due to cheaper labor, materials, and looser restrictions.
Russia’s 2024 Military Spending Surpassed EU, U.K. Combined in PPP Terms – Study - The Moscow Times
Russia’s military spending in 2024, when adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), exceeded that of the European Union and the United Kingdom combined by nearly $5 billion, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said Wednesday.
www.themoscowtimes.com
How convenient to cite 2024 while ignoring previous years and the structural crisis in the military-industrial complex and armed forces after the USSR's collapse. The alliance received $2 trillion in military investments after 2014—further comparisons are simply meaningless.
Regardless of the relative budgets, should the Allied nations in WW2 shed a tear for Nazi Germany when the German military budget was dwarfed by the Allied powers ? I suspect not.
I believe so, yes, since the main hostilities occurred on the Eastern Front (70%), where the USSR's GDP was more than 3 times smaller than the Third Reich's.
Yanokovich tossed a pro European economic agreement on Putins orders. This led to Maidan. There was no conspiracy to remove him by outside powers (spare me the picture of Nuland handing out cookies, I have heard that line a thousand times). Few people cared about Ukraine one way or another until Putin stoked the sectarian violence by having elements of 8th Guards Army enter the fray on the separatists part.
Maidan is a classic regime-change technology. Yanukovych’s refusal of the EU association agreement (Russia being Ukraine’s main trade partner) was merely the trigger. Consider:
Nuland’s leaked call with the US ambassador,
NGO funding via USAID,
McCain’s direct calls for protests,
Decades of media propaganda.
.
Oh, you didnt know about that ?
Strelkov only got involved after repeated requests from influential politicians and businessmen from eastern Ukraine, who were impressed by the success of the Crimea operation.
Oh sure, thats why the US has 5-6 fully staffed divisions in Poland and eastern europe. <---- more sarcasm.
The US goal is to create a buffer zone of allied states along Russia’s European border. Only Belarus held out (after the failed 2021 protests).
Let me clue you in to the west here: No one cares to invade Russia. Russia is under no threat from the US or Europe (seriously, how many European nations can field a single fully staffed combat brigade ?)
As we have hopefully established, trusting verbal assurances from Western (and not only Western) politicians makes no sense.
What do we actually have:
Expansion right up to Russia's borders after 1991
Deployment of missile defense systems in Romania/Poland
Conducting military exercises, establishing military bases
Supporting color revolutions in countries bordering Russia
Russia stole Crimea (go ahead and justify that, I dare you) and the world did nothing.
I will say it again: No one is going to invade Russia. No one. Well, maybe the Chinese in a few years.
Tell me about the 'horrors of occupation'—as someone who lived in Crimea for 13 years, I’m genuinely curious.
That would explain the massive economic trading between the EU and Russia before 2022.
You know, the trade that Putin killed ?
Sorry, you are spouting conspiracy theories with nothing to back them up.
Open support for an armed coup in Ukraine, refusal to negotiate, and complete disregard for Russia’s legitimate interests—this is provocation aimed at inciting conflict.
The US sabotaged Nord Stream 2 and projects like the Renault-AvtoVAZ alliance. The goal isn’t 'defending democracy'—it’s blocking the 'EU + Russia + China' integration. Economic sanctions since 2014.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
... I believe so, yes, since the main hostilities occurred on the Eastern Front (70%), where the USSR's GDP was more than 3 times smaller than the Third Reich's. ...
The "main hostilities" - in terms of German manpower. In terms of industrial effort it was rather different, & those figures ignore the war against Japan.

And a direct comparison of GDP ignores western aid to the USSR, e.g. more trucks than total German or Soviet production given to the USSR. The Red Army's advance from Stalingrad to Berlin was supplied by western trucks. Just a tiny fraction of the aid - & getting it to the USSR took a lot of naval warfare, which needed a lot of ships & aircraft. Germany used more high quality steel for u-boats than tanks, for most of the war it had more aircraft fighting in the west than the east, a million men (far more heavily equipped per head than thoae on the eastern front) defending the Reich against Allied bombers, etc.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...which conveniently leaves out the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of the two nations. Items are relatively cheaper in Russia due to cheaper labor, materials, and looser restrictions.

...
You're right in principle, that military spending converted to USD at prevailing exchange rates is misleading, but looking at the figures here on military PPP (& they refer to the IISS & SIPRI), suggests that Moscow Times report's not quite right.

It says $401 bn for the USSR, $510 bn for the EU, & $85 bn for the UK. Oh, & $183 bn for Ukraine.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
You're right in principle, that military spending converted to USD at prevailing exchange rates is misleading, but looking at the figures here on military PPP (& they refer to the IISS & SIPRI), suggests that Moscow Times report's not quite right.

It says $401 bn for the USSR, $510 bn for the EU, & $85 bn for the UK. Oh, & $183 bn for Ukraine.
Ukraines military budget seems a mixture its direct spending of of overseas equipment through loans and , direct gifts which would need to be broken down to understand in total Ukraines spending ,also how much of N.A.T.O spending quoted is for supporting Ukraine,s defence which is not a N.A.T.O country
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Does this decree make it harder for international organisations to assess Russia's economy accurately?
I'm sure it does. There has been a trend for increasing government secrecy since ~2014. It's made many things harder to asses. The current war makes it worse of course as more and more things are kept secret. Of course this is all bad for Russia since, Putin notwithstanding, Russia does have a civil society, and one that was demanding accountability and putting pressure on authorities, a thoroughly healthy process that this war completely derailed.
 

Aleks.ov

New Member
The "main hostilities" - in terms of German manpower. In terms of industrial effort it was rather different, & those figures ignore the war against Japan.

And a direct comparison of GDP ignores western aid to the USSR, e.g. more trucks than total German or Soviet production given to the USSR. The Red Army's advance from Stalingrad to Berlin was supplied by western trucks. Just a tiny fraction of the aid - & getting it to the USSR took a lot of naval warfare, which needed a lot of ships & aircraft. Germany used more high quality steel for u-boats than tanks, for most of the war it had more aircraft fighting in the west than the east, a million men (far more heavily equipped per head than thoae on the eastern front) defending the Reich against Allied bombers, etc.
Your objections do not cancel my thesis.
The main share of Germany’s industrial resources went to the ground forces engaged against the USSR: armor, ammunition, fuel (see steel production).

Throughout the conflict, for containing Japan, the USSR was forced to maintain in the Far East (10,000 km from Moscow) a grouping numbering 1 million people, 2000+ tanks, and 3000+ aircraft.
The share of Lend-Lease is 7% of the USSR’s GDP and this is mainly logistics, not firepower 90% of which the USSR produced independently. Without Lend-Lease the war would have been longer and bloodier, but not fatal for the USSR.
From 1941-43 the main mass of combat aircraft was engaged in the East (65%). Only in the first month on the Eastern Front the Luftwaffe lost 1200 aircraft, which is comparable to the Battle of Britain.
 

rsemmes

Active Member
It is worth mentioning that without attacking East, the situation on the West (and South) would have been a lot harder... for the Allies.
Count the dead.

Edit:
Each lorry (yes, tanks, aircraft and whatever) sent to the Soviet Union was helping the Western Front and the USSR. The Luftwaffe in the Mediterranean instead of in the East? Two million German troops in France? Germany lost the war in the Eastern Front, not in Falaise.
 
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rsemmes

Active Member
"In short, this decision will cost Ukrainian lives and territory."
On the battlefield, a halt in precision munitions would limit the capacity of Ukrainian troops to strike Russian positions farther behind the front line, said Jack Watling, a military analyst at the Royal United Services Institute.

Ukraine has summoned the acting US envoy to Kyiv to warn the Trump administration that any “delay or procrastination” in supplying the war-hit nation with weapons will only benefit Russia.

And that is the only decision (complain) Ukraine can take. Did Zelenski learn anything?
 
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