Well, after the weekends events how do we sit on defence?
Will the GPFs eventuate?
How soon until the announcement?
I hope it's the Evolved Mogami. It's common sense and the one most able to take upgrades, but what would I know?
I think it means exactly as they have stated. The Government has been fairly metronomic against the 2024 IIP commitments to date. I would not expect them to deviate much from this strategy in the short term.
Expect an announcement on the GPFs later this year, probably fourth quarter.
The PM (and an entourage) will be going to the Canadian G7 in June, and one would expect some meetings with the US at this time. There might be some defence announcements afterwards that could give more of an understanding of where we go with long term funding for Defence.
The good part about the Government remaining in power is that the Defence strategy doesn't get automatically thrown out the window and completely changed. Stability (mediocre or otherwise) is far better than repeated turnover.
I do think that post an election, the Government has more freedom to adjust the Defence strategy, but I doubt this will happen quickly or significantly. Don't expect the Government to suddenly make a commitment to achieve 2.5% or 3%, but we might see some programs brought forward or consolidated, changes for cost growth on existing programs, or some minor budget increases of a few billion for specific activities.
The next IIP is due in 2026. I would view it will be a moderate increase from the 2024 one. Hopefully recruitment turning the corner, maturity on the current round of GWEO programs and commencement of the next group of requirements.
I should note there is still a lot of unallocated and unspent money in the current IIP, so there is plenty of room to move within the existing framework. There is still heaps of money for GWEO, such that it could probably announce a medium range missile defence and a deal with Raytheon for missile production, all within the current 10 year funding. Satellites still remain to be formalised and the funding is still included.
None of the equipment or munition factories will be coming to the end of funded programs in the near future, so there is no need in the short term to authorise new procurements to keep these factories open.