ADF General discussion thread

[SammyC]

Increasing the defence budget definitely doesn’t have to mean purchasing more from the US.

It could mean the Army getting more Redbacks, Boxers and K9 SPG’s.

It could mean additional KC-30 tankers or E7 Wedgetail.

It could even mean throwing money at Rolls Royce and BAe to attempt to accelerate SSN-AUKUS to mitigate the risk of the US not providing Virginia class submarines. Or accelerating Hunter class construction.

I would agree, the recent Australian based factories have all been configured for much higher production than initially authorised. One must assume this was part of the thought process. Perhaps not with Trump in mind, but definitely with a concern for a deteriorating environment.

Easy options to increase defence spending (that also have value) include the armoured vehicles listed, or alternatively more missiles and shells. That NSM factory should be put to maximum the minute it is built, so should the new 155mm shell factory.

I personally have money (monopoly money at least) on Mitsubishi proposing an offer that is significantly accelerated, both the overseas build (from rumours the No2 build for the upgraded batch) and locally (potential direct investment and staff).

I would align with your thoughts on options to accelerate the SSN AUKUS outcome. It would be interesting to spit ball what this would entail. What would it take to implement simultaneous production with the UK for instance. It would be difficult, but perhaps it might become imperative.

My comment regarding the US, is, I would view, that the US will be expecting that expenditure to go to them, call it fealty (or in more crude terms pizzo). Want American protection, buy American gear.

Easy ones here are additional American aircraft (of all types) and American missiles, hence the coalition starting point of F35s.

 

[MARKMILES77]

IPA has released a book on what Australia needs to do in the short term to respond to the changing geopolitical circumstances.

No Higher Priority - A Blueprint For Immediate Action On Australia's Defence 2025-2028

Over many decades federal governments have sought to deliver national security on the cheap, never spending a dollar more on defence than was deemed by officials as absolutely necessary. The result is that Australia has deeply underinvested in defence capability.

ipa.org.au

A video overview of recommendations is here:

A few highlights:
3% Defence Spending.
F-35B not a Squadron of F-35As.
B-21s
Invite a much larger force of U.S. Marines to rotate into the Northern Territory.

 

[StevoJH]

My comment regarding the US, is, I would view, that the US will be expecting that expenditure to go to them, call it fealty (or in more crude terms pizzo). Want American protection, buy American gear.

Easy ones here are additional American aircraft (of all types) and American missiles, hence the coalition starting point of F35s.

Honestly, with the unpredictable behaviour of the current US political leadership the people making the procurement decisions need to be very careful about anything purchased from the US that they could withdraw parts/maintenance support from.

There may be a need to minimise the amount of leverage that can be exerted upon the employment of Australian sovereign capabilities.

 

[Flexson]

My comment regarding the US, is, I would view, that the US will be expecting that expenditure to go to them, call it fealty (or in more crude terms pizzo). Want American protection, buy American gear.

Easy ones here are additional American aircraft (of all types) and American missiles, hence the coalition starting point of F35s.

Cut our loses with Supply and Stalwart before it gets worse and buy two, preferably three, John Lewis Class.... Would also help with retention of Auxiliary sailors (it's demoralising working on a materiel issues and ILS deficiencies Lernaean Hydra)

 

[Reptilia]

Cut our loses with Supply and Stalwart before it gets worse and buy two, preferably three, John Lewis Class.... Would also help with retention of Auxiliary sailors (it's demoralising working on a materiel issues and ILS deficiencies Lernaean Hydra)

No chance of 2 or 3 John Lewis class off the shelf.

The most likely options would be
-Something like the kiwis HMNZS Aotearoa(built by Hyundai) or Hanwha. (Sucks that the Cantabria class was selected and not an Aegir variant)
-Japans Towada class replacement

Less likely
-Purchase of 1-2 of the UKs Tide class
-Italians + French Vulcano class
-Netherlands HNMLS Den Helder

 

[Reptilia]

IPA has released a book on what Australia needs to do in the short term to respond to the changing geopolitical circumstances.

No Higher Priority - A Blueprint For Immediate Action On Australia's Defence 2025-2028

Over many decades federal governments have sought to deliver national security on the cheap, never spending a dollar more on defence than was deemed by officials as absolutely necessary. The result is that Australia has deeply underinvested in defence capability.

ipa.org.au

A video overview of recommendations is here:

A few highlights:
3% Defence Spending.
F-35B not a Squadron of F-35As.
B-21s
Invite a much larger force of U.S. Marines to rotate into the Northern Territory.

IPA is the Liberal party so not really a balanced source.
The otherside has not said no to 3% overtime but the F35Bs and B21s look like a long shot after the DSR.

 

[Julian 82]

IPA is the Liberal party so not really a balanced source.
The otherside has not said no to 3% overtime but the F35Bs and B21s look like a long shot after the DSR.

It’s a conservative think tank (not a part of the liberal party). Just like the Australia Institute is a left leaning think tank but not a part of the ALP. Unfortunately left leaning think tanks don’t generally talk about national defence issues as their focus tends to be on climate change and welfare. I think it would be worth a read as opposed to simply dismissing out of hand.

 

[Reptilia]

It’s a conservative think tank (not a part of the liberal party). Just like the Australia Institute is a left leaning think tank but not a part of the ALP. Unfortunately left leaning think tanks don’t generally talk about national defence issues as their focus tends to be on climate change and welfare. I think it would be worth a read as opposed to simply dismissing out of hand.

Members and Donors from the Liberal party.
No different to the Australian Institute with its bias.
I guess I prefer sources that are independent of government.

 

[MickB]

IPA has released a book on what Australia needs to do in the short term to respond to the changing geopolitical circumstances.

No Higher Priority - A Blueprint For Immediate Action On Australia's Defence 2025-2028

Over many decades federal governments have sought to deliver national security on the cheap, never spending a dollar more on defence than was deemed by officials as absolutely necessary. The result is that Australia has deeply underinvested in defence capability.

ipa.org.au

A video overview of recommendations is here:

A few highlights:
3% Defence Spending.
F-35B not a Squadron of F-35As.
B-21s
Invite a much larger force of U.S. Marines to rotate into the Northern Territory.

Unsure how the proposed purchase of F 35Bs and B21s would constitute immediate action.
Even if requested today what would the delivery date be?
How long for IOC and then FOC?

Not saying I don't see some merit in the F35B but the B21 not so much.

 

[Flexson]

No chance of 2 or 3 John Lewis class off the shelf.

The most likely options would be
-Something like the kiwis HMNZS Aotearoa(built by Hyundai) or Hanwha. (Sucks that the Cantabria class was selected and not an Aegir variant)
-Japans Towada class replacement

Less likely
-Purchase of 1-2 of the UKs Tide class
-Italians + French Vulcano class
-Netherlands HNMLS Den Helder

Having worked on FFG's and Anzac's, served on Both LHD's, Both AOR's, Success and Tobruk and worked at the training centre for OPV's my opinion is buy american designs or nothing else.

 

[Reptilia]

Having worked on FFG's and Anzac's, served on Both LHD's, Both AOR's, Success and Tobruk and worked at the training centre for OPV's my opinion is buy american designs or nothing else.

Korean + Japanese ships?

 

[south]

Unsure how the proposed purchase of F 35Bs and B21s would constitute immediate action.
Even if requested today what would the delivery date be?
How long for IOC and then FOC?

Not saying I don't see some merit in the F35B but the B21 not so much.

This argument was put forward recently (amongst other flawed analysis) on the RAAF thread. Let’s be serious that if the ADF was only concerned with that timeframe then we should bin Hunter (~2031 projected for 1st of class?) or Virginia SSN (2032?).

End of the day the ADF needs to plan for short, medium and long term capability (reflected in NDS epochs).

 

[MARKMILES77]

Michael Pezzullo's plan for a rapid increase in ADF capability.
He feels there is only a window of 2 years to get ready. Not because war is very likely in 2027 (he puts the risk at 10-20%) but because the cosequences of being unprepared are too great. He also hints at what would be required if the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally.

Australia’s defences must be ready in two years. Here’s what to do | The Strategist

Beijing deployed a naval task group to the waters around Australia for three related reasons. First, to demonstrate the reach and potency of Chinese sea power and to put Australia on notice that it is ...

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