ADF General discussion thread

[MARKMILES77]

Explicit U.S. call for Australia to increase defence spending to 3% of G.D.P.
That would mean Australian spending on defence rose $28 Billion to $84 Billion per year.
Not sure Australia could even spend $28 Billion extra?

Trump admin to Australia: spending $56 billion on defence isn’t enough by half

One of Trump’s top Pentagon picks, Elbridge Colby, made the United States’ first explicit call for Australia to massively increase defence spending to counter China.

www.theage.com.au

 

[John Fedup]

Explicit U.S. call for Australia to increase defence spending to 3% of G.D.P.
That would mean Australian spending on defence rose $28 Billion to $84 Billion per year.
Not sure Australia could even spend $28 Billion extra?

Trump admin to Australia: spending $56 billion on defence isn’t enough by half

One of Trump’s top Pentagon picks, Elbridge Colby, made the United States’ first explicit call for Australia to massively increase defence spending to counter China.

www.theage.com.au

Just tell fatty to hand over the 4 most recent SSNs and he can have the $28 billion

 

[MARKMILES77]

Just tell fatty to hand over the 4 most recent SSNs and he can have the $28 billion

That might actually be a good idea.
4 is probably too many to introduce at once though.
Maybe offer to buy 2 Virginias at significantly more than the U.S.N. paid for them right now.
Would lock in AUKUS.
Immediately increase Australia's submarine force.
Help cover the period when Collins Subs will be out of the water for upgrade.
Allow everyone to claim it was a "great deal".

 

[hauritz]

That might actually be a good idea.
4 is probably too many to introduce at once though.
Maybe offer to buy 2 Virginias at significantly more than the U.S.N. paid for them right now.
Would lock in AUKUS.
Immediately increase Australia's submarine force.
Help cover the period when Collins Subs will be out of the water for upgrade.
Allow everyone to claim it was a "great deal".

Certainly puts him in an awkward position if he demands 3% of GDP and then turns around and refuses to sell us the one big ticket item that might require us to boost spending to 3%.

Even if we were to boost spending to that level he would be well and truly out of office before we got there.

 

[Arclighy]

Explicit U.S. call for Australia to increase defence spending to 3% of G.D.P.
That would mean Australian spending on defence rose $28 Billion to $84 Billion per year.
Not sure Australia could even spend $28 Billion extra?

Trump admin to Australia: spending $56 billion on defence isn’t enough by half

One of Trump’s top Pentagon picks, Elbridge Colby, made the United States’ first explicit call for Australia to massively increase defence spending to counter China.

www.theage.com.au

I'm all for increasing Australia's defence spending, not because America says we have to, but because the world has changed very quickly, and Australia needs to show a much more independent posture and preparedness. I actually don't have much confidence in America's direction, nor do l support the way they have shredded the European alliance. How this plays out in an IndoPacific context is anyone's guess. I hope the boffins in Canberra are working on a Plan B right now. As to how much and what to spend it on, I'll leave that to the experts.

 

[spoz]

We are not yet in a position to operate SSNs safely.

 

[MARKMILES77]

We are not yet in a position to operate SSNs safely.

I am imagine it would start off with mostly US crew and maintenance staff and gradually transition as experience grew.

 

[ADMk2]

I am imagine it would start off with mostly US crew and maintenance staff and gradually transition as experience grew.

Who and what handles the radiological materials from the boat?

That is but one of many differences. If you look at the schedule of works at Henderson, the scope of what we need to operate SSN’s is truly staggering.

We are starting from scratch. Existing users have had decades to build up to their current capability. The gap is so vast it’s difficult to comprehend it all.

 

[Bob53]

That’s true in the short term. But the problem (at least from a Defence recruitment perspective) is that in the medium term the NDIS provides a strong incentive for relatively more psychology grads (of which there are a finite pool) to become pediatric and other clinical psychologists and fewer to become the sort of organisational psychologists that would be needed for Defence.

I’m not saying at all that it’s a good thing or a bad thing, but it is definitely a thing. Like competing against the mining industry for engineers and trades in WA.

It’s more than just Psychologists. NDIS is sucking up people from a broad spectrum. How about Barristas? I played golf on Monday and got paired with a very nice young bloke who had a brain injury Incurred when he was a teenager. He had a carer bring him and walk around the course with him. The carer volunteered he was a NDIS support person and comes to golf with this fella twice a week. Asked any others and he said yea he has another that he brings once a week. I said noble and he so no I get $500 a day for this…further question the provider he works for gets …he wasn’t sure $165 or $185 per hr x 6 for golf and they pay for a taxi to the course and the young fellas green fees. Then I asked long have you been doing this? About 2 years and before that I was a barista but i would have to work about 50 hrs to get this kind of money… the fella with the brain injury was pretty good all things considered …hit 101 at Long Reef.

 

[hauritz]

I don't like bashing NDIS because it implies I am attacking those who really need that service, but the raw number are damning. It costs $44.3 billion a year for about 693,000 clients. That is around $64,000 per client.

We need to start getting people into real jobs.

Getting back to the obvious we also need to get people into the military, so the sooner we can get these ex-barristas off the golf course and into uniform the better off everyone will be.

 

[SammyC]

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/na...d/news-story/7485317c8e94aeb4f1c49dadf88463d9

My apologies for the paywall, however I can't find this same information on a free news site.

Sen Marles responded to questions regarding recent US comments for Australia to increase its Defence spending from the US. To my knowledge this is the first time he has answered, so it provides an interesting insight into the way forward (from Labor at least).

The wording from Marles is that the Government is "ready for an ongoing conversation about lifting Defence spending", "it is completely reasonable for America to ask its allies and friends to do more to safeguard their security" and "we've already commenced those conversations when I met my counterpart Sec Pete Hegseth a few weeks ago".

So not exactly "we're buying more F35s", but it does signal an intent to move on the Defence budget and it is not set in stone. Perhaps more behind closed doors rather than in the open, but I wouldn't be suprised if Australia announces a 2030 budget that is closer to the 3% than the current 2.4% sometime this year, regardless of which party gets in.

Hopefully whoever it is, spends a little time assessing what is the best way to use that increase in budget, rather scaterblasting it. "Ongoing conversations" could mean discussing what American equipment Australia buys, and where it slots in the production runs.

For the Americans, it would be unreasonable to ask for more expenditure from Australia and then not provide access to the factories.

 

[the road runner]

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/na...d/news-story/7485317c8e94aeb4f1c49dadf88463d9

My apologies for the paywall, however I can't find this same information on a free news site.

The link above is the interview... some good points raised

 

[Bob53]

I don't like bashing NDIS because it implies I am attacking those who really need that service, but the raw number are damning. It costs $44.3 billion a year for about 693,000 clients. That is around $64,000 per client.

We need to start getting people into real jobs.

Getting back to the obvious we also need to get people into the military, so the sooner we can get these ex-barristas off the golf course and into uniform the better off everyone will be.

I don’t want to take away from those that need but it’s become a massive gravy train ….not so much for recipients but for service providers. I have first hand family experience where people like chippies and plumbers take the piss but the service providers don’t call them out because they get a % of the spend.

 

[Bob53]

On a serious note. These fellas are Houthi rebels. They out produce Australia in the manufacture of anti aircraft and anti shipping missiles.

Houthi Weapons Arsenal Remains A Mystery To The U.S.

Despite 18 months of attacks by the Houthis, the U.S. does not have a clear idea of how many standoff weapons they possess or how they get all of them.

www.twz.com

 

[MARKMILES77]

Who and what handles the radiological materials from the boat?

That is but one of many differences. If you look at the schedule of works at Henderson, the scope of what we need to operate SSN’s is truly staggering.

We are starting from scratch. Existing users have had decades to build up to their current capability. The gap is so vast it’s difficult to comprehend it all.

Reactor is a sealed unit. So no high level waste for decades.
Low level waste handling and storage is no different from that which takes place in Hospitals every day.
Australia is already likely to take U.S. and U.K. low level waste before our subs arrive.

The Guardian
Monday 13 May 2024

The government’s bill for regulating nuclear safety talks about “managing, storing or disposing of radioactive waste from an Aukus submarine”, which it defines broadly as Australia, UK or US submarines.



In a report published on Monday, the Senate’s foreign affairs, defence and trade legislation committee said this wording did not reflect the government’s promise not to accept high-level nuclear waste.


It recommended that the government consider “amending the bill so that a distinction is made between Australia’s acceptance of low-level nuclear waste from Aukus partners, but non-acceptance of high-level nuclear waste”.

The government has left the door open to accepting low-level waste from US and UK nuclear-powered submarines when they conduct rotational visits to Western Australia in the first phase of the Aukus plan. Low-level waste contains small amounts of radioactivity and include items such as personal protective equipment, gloves and wipes.

“According to the Australian Submarine Agency, nuclear-powered submarines only generate around a ‘small skip bin’ of low-level naval nuclear waste per submarine per year and that intermediate- and high-level waste will not become a concern until the first naval nuclear reactor requires disposal in the mid-2050s,” the Senate committee report said.

Australia risks being ‘world’s nuclear waste dump’ unless Aukus laws changed, critics say

Labor-chaired inquiry calls for legislation to rule out accepting high-level nuclear waste from US and UK submarines among other recommendations

www.theguardian.com

 

[ADMk2]

Reactor is a sealed unit. So no high level waste for decades.
Low level waste handling and storage is no different from that which takes place in Hospitals every day.
Australia is already likely to take U.S. and U.K. low level waste before our subs arrive.

Australia risks being ‘world’s nuclear waste dump’ unless Aukus laws changed, critics say

Labor-chaired inquiry calls for legislation to rule out accepting high-level nuclear waste from US and UK submarines among other recommendations

www.theguardian.com

Low level nuclear waste from hospitals doesn’t come from weapons grade fissile material and we have absolutely no idea as a country over what to do long term with either low level waste or reprocessed intermediate waste, let alone high grade waste.

So thanks for literally confirming my point…

 

[InterestedParty]

I don't like bashing NDIS because it implies I am attacking those who really need that service, but the raw number are damning. It costs $44.3 billion a year for about 693,000 clients. That is around $64,000 per client.

We need to start getting people into real jobs.

Getting back to the obvious we also need to get people into the military, so the sooner we can get these ex-barristas off the golf course and into uniform the better off everyone will be.

My concern with NDIS beyond what has been mentioned already is somewhat of a timebomb
I have an office adjacent to a large NDIS provider and I see a constant stream of young children being brought in, before during and after school hours.
Each one of these children, some very young, has been diagnosed as having a disability. What effect does this have on the future of Australia and the workforce. Are these children, after going through the process and being labelled as " disabled" , going to be mentally up to the task of working in or for the defence force.

 

[old faithful]

I don’t want to take away from those that need but it’s become a massive gravy train ….not so much for recipients but for service providers. I have first hand family experience where people like chippies and plumbers take the piss but the service providers don’t call them out because they get a % of the spend.

I work in a prison system, and even there ,Ndis Workers visit clients and disabled "detainees " who have a status which is not really a prisoner, but deemed a threat to society, so they still collect their pension while incarcerated as well, some of these, well most are a more of a threat to children....

 

[StevoJH]

For the Americans, it would be unreasonable to ask for more expenditure from Australia and then not provide access to the factories.

Increasing the defence budget definitely doesn’t have to mean purchasing more from the US.

It could mean the Army getting more Redbacks, Boxers and K9 SPG’s.

It could mean additional KC-30 tankers or E7 Wedgetail.

It could even mean throwing money at Rolls Royce and BAe to attempt to accelerate SSN-AUKUS to mitigate the risk of the US not providing Virginia class submarines. Or accelerating Hunter class construction.

 

[Reptilia]

Missile production and HIMARS+Strikemasters = best bang for buck in the short term.

Chunmoo and Hanwhas missile lineup(known as Whitetail) could also be an option along with Rheinmetalls GMARS.
Japans new Type 12 SSM with its 900-1200km range could be available long before we see prsm.