The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

I couldn't find a way to show compact lists on lostarmour so I used oryx's list, even if I personally object to some of their methods.
Of some 1092 MBTs documented destroyed, damaged, or captured, only 81 are confirmed of western origin, of which 14 are obsolete and 67 are old.
You're wrong to count Ukraine's own arsenal into that.
The only category in which western aid truly has some okay numbers is APCs, and even then the vast majority are either obsolete or light armored vehicles that were built for a different time period and environment.

Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

What I am talking about is AFVs of brand new production. You could definitely produce a combined 10,000 AFVs over a 10 year period, especially if the EU also contracts foreign industries in the US and Asia, like Poland did with South Korea. AFVs fitted with APS, modern all-around armor, situational awareness equipment, BMS, and all the bells and whistles.

Newly delivered pieces replaced losses within Ukraine's own arsenal, so we are right to count it within that number. And let's not forget many of those tanks "not of western origin" were supplied nonetheless from the stockpiles of NATO countries or bought with money those countries forked over.

At least as far as military aid goes (and not financial), the remaining $90 billion would cover most of that. Remember it's just one monetary source on top of Ukraine's existing military budget and other programs to donate from the EU's own funds.
If we were to say the $200 billion are all there is, then Ukraine could buy half the provided list and use the rest to fund the follow-up stuff. But there's not even that. Not a quarter of it even, certainly not brand new items. The prices I gave are for new production.

This is more of a comment about aid already delivered than future aid. I understand what the 200 billion number is about. On the flip side, where does the money for Ukraine's own existing military budget come from?

Not according to this:

Technical Difficulties

The number is either wrong or creatively calculated. From observations and reported deliveries the numbers are substantially higher.

 

[KipPotapych]

The first thing to note is that of the roughly $300B aid, half was financial aid, not military. Second, of that aid, I am not going to guess the percentage, but a good chunk is “scheduled delivery in years to come”, so to speak. Third, it is inflated, no doubt. I think, but not sure, I posted links to a few article ages ago where Poland (and others) were trying to claim their donated equipment at higher prices the new stuff they could buy with the money. At least that’s the reimbursement “prices” they were trying to get (and received?) from the EU. Fourth, there is certainly exists aid that was never announced or was accounted for under different programs, etc. and so on. Some countries have never wanted to have their donations made public for obvious reasons. I can go on.

Oryx has a list of some of the equipment donated/pledged, citing official reports, I believe. Presently we have, according to their list (I don’t know when the list was last updated):
- 134+ aircraft;
- 96+ helicopters;
- 1020 tanks;
- 160+ AFVs;
- 1442+ IFVs;
- 4,384+ APCs;
- 1,802+ MRAPs;
- 7,310+ IMVs;
- 445+ pieces of towed artillery;
- 780+ units of self-propelled artillery;
- 113+ MLRS;
- 373+ AA guns;
- 170+ self-propelled AA guns;
- 133+ SAMS (some are counted as units and some as batteries, of course - see Spain for a good exmaple);
- 180+ radars;
- 472+ units of engineering equipment;
- 420+ ships and underwater vehicle.

Obviously not all is accounted for, even category wise.

Edit: The list, lol. Forgot to put the link:

Answering The Call: Heavy Weaponry Supplied To Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

 

[kato]

What will be the biggest impact of US military and starlink shut down in Ukraine?

Eutelsat has positioned itself to replace Starlink. They're basically expecting that Ukraine will shift their Starlink contracts over to their subsidiary OneWeb. In addition Eutelsat would be offering GEO satcom backup/interlink, which Starlink does not offer.

Eutelsat is the third-largest satellite operator worldwide with a network of 35 GEO and 700 LEO communications satellites.

Eutelsat is currently in negotiations with the EU and European governments over financing this. Stock market also reacted very positively, tripling their value over the last five days.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Newly delivered pieces replaced losses within Ukraine's own arsenal, so we are right to count it within that number. And let's not forget many of those tanks "not of western origin" were supplied nonetheless from the stockpiles of NATO countries or bought with money those countries forked over

You're still missing the point that the price refers to brand new units, not something that was last upgraded 40 years ago.

This is more of a comment about aid already delivered than future aid. I understand what the 200 billion number is about. On the flip side, where does the money for Ukraine's own existing military budget come from?

Ukraine's own economy and aid sources unrelated to frozen Russian assets.

The number is either wrong or creatively calculated. From observations and reported deliveries the numbers are substantially higher

Even if, they are evidently far, far below the potential I raised. Not a single MBT or IFV delivered to Ukraine could be considered on par with a brand new AFV, most are obsolete junk like the Dutch YPR-765.

Oryx has a list of some of the equipment donated/pledged, citing official reports, I believe. Presently we have, according to their list (I don’t know when the list was last updated)

Thanks for illustrating my point. Most of this is Vietnam era junk.
Honestly I wouldn't count anything M113-based as an APC. It's good for general logistics but otherwise better to go on foot past a certain point.

Eutelsat has positioned itself to replace Starlink. They're basically expecting that Ukraine will shift their Starlink contracts over to their subsidiary OneWeb. In addition Eutelsat would be offering GEO satcom backup/interlink, which Starlink does not offer.

Eutelsat is the third-largest satellite operator worldwide with a network of 35 GEO and 700 LEO communications satellites.

Eutelsat is currently in negotiations with the EU and European governments over financing this. Stock market also reacted very positively, tripling their value over the last five days.

There is very low likelihood of Starlink access being lost. The US is in the process of upgrading Ukraine's civilian grade links to military grade ones.

I know there was some announcement about halting aid to Ukraine but everything will get back on track very soon when the minerals deal is signed.

 

[seaspear]

It is correct of course to discuss material losses for both sides but surely the logistical means of supply should also be assessed if under attack, certainly seeing Russia resort to mules for this suggests they have now to be careful in this, not to mention attacks on critical factories in military production and fuel refineries can have an effect on operations

 

[T.C.P]

You're still missing the point that the price refers to brand new units, not something that was last upgraded 40 years ago.





Thanks for illustrating my point. Most of this is Vietnam era junk.
Honestly I wouldn't count anything M113-based as an APC. It's good for general logistics but otherwise better to go on foot past a certain point.


signed.

Whats the difference? In Ukraine its a volume game. In Kursk, the most modern UA equipment like Cv90s, Strykers, Bradleys all fell just the same. Even witht he most dense EW employed so far, fibre optic fpvs did not care. Even weaker wirelss FPVs got through to kill modern IFVs, due to the sheer volume.

I have no idea how well Israeli style kinetic APS wold work against the sheer volume of fpvs flying around the front.

 

[Fredled]

Ukraine claims a strike on Syzran oil refinery in Samara region and on a pumping station in the Rostov region.Pumping station may be even more critical than refineries but not result in impressive fire.

They also claim an S400 radar in Crimea.

and a Russian command post in the settlement of Kalinina, Donetsk region.
(All of this has to be confirmed by independent sources, of course.)

Russian forces are attempting to cross the Dnipro River in four locations.
______________

Rare earth Deal:

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration and Ukraine plan to sign a minerals deal that fell through after a disastrous Oval Office meeting Friday in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was dismissed from the building, four people familiar with the situation said on Tuesday.

President Donald Trump has told his advisers that he wants to announce the agreement in his address to Congress on Tuesday evening

link

US Aid suspension:
Confirmed by various sources, but nothing official yet.
Zelensky tries to repair the damage by saying publicly what Trump desires to hear. I expect the military shipments to resume after the signature of the deal.
It's obvious that Ukrainians can't afford to lose the US military aid despite the fact that it won't be as critical as one year ago if they do. They are sort of forced to trust the Americans even without written military guarantee.
I don't expect Ukrainians to stop firing before the Russians do, despite Zelensky's saying that he wants "peace quickly" because that would be suicidal. A ceasefire will take at least several weeks to materialize.

Today, many people have the same question: what will happen next with U.S. assistance? I have instructed Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, the heads of our intelligence agencies, and our diplomats to contact their counterparts in the United States and obtain official information. People should not have to guess. Ukraine and America deserve a respectful dialogue and a clear position from one another. Especially when it comes to protecting lives during a full-scale war. Of course, in Ukraine, we have been receiving various signals for weeks now, and there has already been a precedent for aid being halted. There was a suspension of humanitarian aid, of energy aid. There was also a halt in military aid – at the end of January, but at that time, everything was quickly resumed. We saw the risks. Therefore, our agencies – both military and special services – managed to develop action algorithms for any developments in the situation. This is not 2022 anymore. Our resilience is stronger now. We have the means to defend ourselves. But for us, maintaining normal, partnership-based relations with America is essential to bringing the war to a real end.

Ukraine will always be grateful to the U.S. for all the support that has been and is being provided, and which is working to preserve the now rather fragile foundations of security in Europe. After all, this is not just about our country. It is about everyone in Europe. We seek constructive cooperation. Partnership-based relations. We can only regret what happened at the White House instead of our negotiations. But we must find the strength to move forward, to respect one another, just as we have always respected America, Europe, and all our partners, and to do everything together to bring peace closer. And I thank everyone who is supporting Ukraine in this effort

link

___________________________

Remember when the Kursk offensive began, one of the reasons provided by the Ukrainian command was an accumulation of Russian troops in the area and preparation of a Sumy offensive by the Russians, so this was meant to prevent it? Clearly, there was no accumulation of troops and no imminent offensive planned at the time. Now, however, there are, according to the previous Ukrainian reports, 50,000 Russian troops that will keep advancing right into Ukraine if, or rather when, they have to abandon the Kursk “salient”.

There were forcibly no massive Russian troops where Ukrainians attacked, else they would have failed or attacked elsewhere. But the Sumy Region at large have been subject the Russian artillery fire continuously (daily) since the beginning of the war until Ukraine entered the Kursk Oblast. After that, Russians kept bombing the Sumy region with MLRS and long range missiles. Now their artillery is back near the border, albeit in smaller number.
Ukrainians have said many times, before they entered the Kursk oblast, that Russians had plans for an invasion of the Sumy region. It doesn't mean that Russians had amassed troops at the time of the attack.

Anyway, it doesn't matter for the Ukrainians where Russians may conduct new assaults. They have to secure the entire border anyway and they know in advance where Russians are positioned. It won't be a surprise for anyone if the Russian contingents in Kursk will try to push into Ukraine once Ukrainians have completely retreated from Russia.

 

[seaspear]

I don't believe you can just compare numbers of tanks on both sides but would have to consider the crews survivability ,I believe we have seen enough of the t-72 type tanks without turret to realise there was a total crew loss, more often than not abandoned western tanks though damaged have allowed the crews to safely evacuate to fight another day these are experienced crews unlike what's happening in the older soviet tanks from both sides

 

[crest]

Seaspear. Worth Notting the same is also true to a even greater extent for ifvs vs BMPs. Tho I'll suspect greatly offset by Ukraine heavy use of civilian transport for frontline rotation and supply. Even BMPs except I would say the aluminum paratrooper one, (forget which variant). Have with cages shown to be somewhat effective as there is plenty of footage of evacs from stricken vehicle's.

Also seems from Trump's address that the support cut off will be short lived. I personally think Russia will drag out negotiations as from there point of view the discord with e.u is of benefit Makes sense if one considers NATO (Russian security issues) the primary cause of the conflict from there point of view. Tho that is just a opinion. And very subject to many factors not the least of which is well frankly why continue if there demands will be met?

One further note on equipment numbers are both hard to figure with reclame and repair a big factored in favor of Russia. Second the mechanical reliability of some western equipment and supply/specialist service needs are not easy for the Ukrainian forces. Especially as key supply centers get pushed back or struck. I have seen Ukraine move battalions around alot it must be hell to move western equipped forces from place one front to the other multiple times and keep its fighting potential intact just saying

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Whats the difference? In Ukraine its a volume game. In Kursk, the most modern UA equipment like Cv90s, Strykers, Bradleys all fell just the same. Even witht he most dense EW employed so far, fibre optic fpvs did not care. Even weaker wirelss FPVs got through to kill modern IFVs, due to the sheer volume.

I have no idea how well Israeli style kinetic APS wold work against the sheer volume of fpvs flying around the front.

Modern AFV:
Better situational awareness and BMS:
Lower rate of impact by munitions, increased lethality vs semi concealed enemies, NLOS attack capability against shooters.

Better construction and armor:
Lower fatality and injury rate post-strike and higher likelihood of shrugging off hits.

APS:
Min FPVs required to disable AFV increased from 1 to 7*.
Platoon of 4 AFVs would need 24* FPVs at the minimum just to get them to expend their APS munitions, and a total of 28 to get a first hit on all vehicles, instead of 4.
*Assuming 6 charges per vehicle as on Trophy (6-8).

An AFV ordered in 2025 could also feature longer range C-UAS capabilities by the time it's delivered.

Volume is key only when either in parity with the adversary or the war spans large territory. An order of said list of modern equipment would put Ukraine in a league far above Russia, and volume would become less important than quality on the tactical level.
Modern aircraft would also allow Ukraine to employ mass fires on Russian forces from standoff distances, a capability it so far only holds with very small warheads.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

"ReArm Europe..." (not give everything to Ukraine) "...over a period of four years." The war is now, Zelenski will keep fighting with promises.

EU chief unveils €800bn plan to ‘rearm’ Europe

‘We are ready to step up’ says Ursula von der Leyen after US suspends military aid to Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

If you know how to spend even half of the total amount in 6 months, well, let's say you should be appointed NATO sec gen.
You can't just turn money into equipment...

I believe even 800 billions in 4 years are irrealistic.
Unless you convert to war economy, which is not the case.

 

[T.C.P]

Modern AFV:
Better situational awareness and BMS:
Lower rate of impact by munitions, increased lethality vs semi concealed enemies, NLOS attack capability against shooters.

Better construction and armor:
Lower fatality and injury rate post-strike and higher likelihood of shrugging off hits.

APS:
Min FPVs required to disable AFV increased from 1 to 7*.
Platoon of 4 AFVs would need 24* FPVs at the minimum just to get them to expend their APS munitions, and a total of 28 to get a first hit on all vehicles, instead of 4.
*Assuming 6 charges per vehicle as on Trophy (6-8).

An AFV ordered in 2025 could also feature longer range C-UAS capabilities by the time it's delivered.

Volume is key only when either in parity with the adversary or the war spans large territory. An order of said list of modern equipment would put Ukraine in a league far above Russia, and volume would become less important than quality on the tactical level.
Modern aircraft would also allow Ukraine to employ mass fires on Russian forces from standoff distances, a capability it so far only holds with very small warheads.

Even if they ordered a bunch of these advamced AFVs, how long would it tkae for Ukraine to receive enough of them?
Even in a perfect scenario where every single APS manages to take out a drone, 28 fpvs to take out one very very expensive piece of equipment is a no brainer. Even at 5000 for a fibre optic fpv, even using 30 FPVs to get a motion kill is a very good tradeoff.

Unless Europe can manage to get 100s of these very advanced IFVs to the front line quickly, how much of an immpact can they make? Ukraine needs vehicles now. The sheer number of unnecessarry deaths due to them using pick up trucks is crazy. Every day we get double digit videos of civillian cars turned itno transportation getting hit by the Russians.

And as you clearly mentioned the size of the front is a major factor, Ukraine eneds to cover a hige swath of land. They need numbers and they need them now.

As for 2025 vehicles with CUAS, I would love to see a few in a conflict like this, just to see how effective they can be.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Even if they ordered a bunch of these advamced AFVs, how long would it tkae for Ukraine to receive enough of them?

I specified 10 years. It's doable. Which means by 2025 Ukraine could have 3,000 AFVs of brand new production.

Even in a perfect scenario where every single APS manages to take out a drone, 28 fpvs to take out one very very expensive piece of equipment is a no brainer.

You're missing the point. You're talking costs when I'm talking combat effectiveness. Before APS it's 4 drones to mobility kill a platoon. After APS it's 28 drones. The cost balance only improves for the AFV's side, and the already very low reliability of drones only plummets.
The cost of the drone isn't just its manufacture, but the risks of delivering it all the way to the front and storing it there.
If in a given cell a unit only holds 30 drones, it could be an overmatch against a platoon of AFVs that don't have APS. But if they do have APS, it'll probably not even budge them. Remember 1 drone is the bare minimum. In reality modern AFVs can shrug off a good portion of them.

Unless Europe can manage to get 100s of these very advanced IFVs to the front line quickly, how much of an immpact can they make? Ukraine needs vehicles now. The sheer number of unnecessarry deaths due to them using pick up trucks is crazy. Every day we get double digit videos of civillian cars turned itno transportation getting hit by the Russians.

Thanks for reinforcing my point.

And as you clearly mentioned the size of the front is a major factor, Ukraine eneds to cover a hige swath of land. They need numbers and they need them now.

Thanks for reinforcing my point.

As for 2025 vehicles with CUAS, I would love to see a few in a conflict like this, just to see how effective they can be.

There is no hard data since it's classified, but basic versions of such systems were tested in Gaza and were reportedly very effective.