Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

old faithful

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I wonder if the time to make a decision is reflected in the reality of time to manufacture.
I hope not, but the reality is as most have observed over the years /decades ship construction is a complicated endeavour that takes time from the starters gun going off to select a vessel, to the physical reality of the first of class being commissioned.
SEA 3000 is ambitious.
History will judge its success.
For now, however frustrating we can only hope the first ships are delivered to meet our expectations on time and equally we can produce domestically to the same expectations.
I can only share the frustration and anxiety.

it’s an ambitious project on many levels.
It’s our plan B , C and D for the mistakes of the past.
It just has to work and regretfully I’m just not that confident it will.

Cheers S
I feel the same.
If something happens to our relationship with Uncle Sam, we are in deep deep water.
Frigates and the Hunters are a long way off, if the Virginas don't happen, we then have to wait for AUKUS subs, which if worst comes to worst, will be auk subs.....
 

Reptilia

Well-Known Member
I feel the same.
If something happens to our relationship with Uncle Sam, we are in deep deep water.
Frigates and the Hunters are a long way off, if the Virginas don't happen, we then have to wait for AUKUS subs, which if worst comes to worst, will be auk subs.....
May also effect Ghost Shark program with Palmer Luckey(Anduril) extremely close to Trump.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
If something happens to our relationship with Uncle Sam, we are in deep deep water.
Unfortunately, yes. Would make a tie up with the Japanese all the more important. Germany won't be able (even if willing) to do anything in the Pacific in a world where the US won't militarily support Europe, as it's uncomfortably close to Russia.

Frigates and the Hunters are a long way off, if the Virginas don't happen, we then have to wait for AUKUS subs, which if worst comes to worst, will be auk subs.....
SSN-AUKUS was always primarily about the AUK. The US is providing assistance with things like the combat management system, but even Trump wouldn't cancel that - a sale is a sale to him. But it's the UK that's producing the PWR, which is the really important part, and also guaranteeing that the class will be built.

It's also a good reason for Australia to really build up relations with the UK. Unlike Trump we don't see everything as brutally transactional and won't tie Canberra to a barrel just because we can.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Heavy question... Should the UK continue the production of Dreadnought class for Australia?
I don't think we can. We will need at least some of the space vacated by the earlier boats to get started with the new SSN class. At a minimum we'd need Canberra to pay for extra shipyard capacity, which would not be cheap.

Also I think that the nuclear threat to Australia is still limited. If China used WMD on Australia because of a conventional conflict, it would mean a global rush for nuclear weapons, which would not be in the CCP's interests.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I don't think we can. We will need at least some of the space vacated by the earlier boats to get started with the new SSN class. At a minimum we'd need Canberra to pay for extra shipyard capacity, which would not be cheap.

Also I think that the nuclear threat to Australia is still limited. If China used WMD on Australia because of a conventional conflict, it would mean a global rush for nuclear weapons, which would not be in the CCP's interests.
A rush for nuclear weapons is likely underway (or should be) by Japan and SKorea because the US is longer a reliable ally. Other countries will have similar concerns.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Are you thinking of using them in a converted SSGN role similar to what the US did with the first 4 Ohio class?
Although a Dreadnought conversion from SSBN to SSGN is possible, I doubt either the UK or Australia would want to pay the development costs and the cost for additional subs. A SSBN is of no value to Australia as it doesn't have nuclear bombs and i don't think Trident missiles are part of the AUKUS agreement.
 

iambuzzard

Well-Known Member
I wonder if the time to make a decision is reflected in the reality of time to manufacture.
I hope not, but the reality is as most have observed over the years /decades ship construction is a complicated endeavour that takes time from the starters gun going off to select a vessel, to the physical reality of the first of class being commissioned.
SEA 3000 is ambitious.
History will judge its success.
For now, however frustrating we can only hope the first ships are delivered to meet our expectations on time and equally we can produce domestically to the same expectations.
I can only share the frustration and anxiety.

it’s an ambitious project on many levels.
It’s our plan B , C and D for the mistakes of the past.
It just has to work and regretfully I’m just not that confident it will.

Cheers S
If we choose Evolved Mogami the Japanese have form on quick delivery.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
If we choose Evolved Mogami the Japanese have form on quick delivery.
Perhaps, but delivery of a finished piece of major kit is not the same as having that same piece of kit (or the service itself) being ready for entry into service.

TBH (and this is unlikely to surprise people who read & recall my posts) I have thought the desired timeline for SEA 3000 acquisitions to be quite ambitious, perhaps overly so. I would expect that any worthwhile selection process would ask several pertinent questions, questions which might not have answers that were exactly straightforward.

There would of course be questions about who might be able to start construction first, as well as which potential vessel class could be completed first. Those questions though are not nearly as easy to answer as I suspect many might believe, as part of the answer will depend on vessel fitout and how much time is required to order and start taking delivery of long-lead items, in addition to build slot availability.

Similarly any selection process would need to consider what has to happen for a completed vessel to actually be not only delivered but enter service.

Theoretically Germany or Japan could 'give' Australia an in-service tomorrow but that does not mean that the RAN would be able to immediately start operating such a new vessel because of differences in kit, displays, systems and documentation. Same goes for any new vessels ordered especially of classes built and in-service overseas. I would expect part of the selection process will be determining who can meet construction delivery timeframe requirements, and which candidate can meet in-service date requirements.

Last thought (for right now) to consider is how many seem to assume that spare shipyard capacity exists and will continue to do so for the time needed for an Australia order. For instance, it seems many believe Japan has sufficient spare capacity, whilst ignoring the potential for Japan to decide looming security threats require spare capacity be utilized to fill Japanese orders first.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
May also effect Ghost Shark program with Palmer Luckey(Anduril) extremely close to Trump.
However one thing these guys like more than Trump is cash. One thing I still fail to s comprehend is how a large long range USV will works and what surveillance will it deliver that can’t be done by satellite.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
Unfortunately, yes. Would make a tie up with the Japanese all the more important. Germany won't be able (even if willing) to do anything in the Pacific in a world where the US won't militarily support Europe, as it's uncomfortably close to Russia.



SSN-AUKUS was always primarily about the AUK. The US is providing assistance with things like the combat management system, but even Trump wouldn't cancel that - a sale is a sale to him. But it's the UK that's producing the PWR, which is the really important part, and also guaranteeing that the class will be built.

It's also a good reason for Australia to really build up relations with the UK. Unlike Trump we don't see everything as brutally transactional and won't tie Canberra to a barrel just because we can.
Slightly OT but in response to point above. I understand Russia has been aggressive ( understatement) but can’t see why European is too concerned. Yes build up European militaries to deter but I can’t see Russia being demographically capable of challenging Europe in a land war Away from any Russian border. They have manpower issues now. They have for the foreseeable future lost around half a million service aged men….those that have been killed, those that have been severely wounded ……and they won’t be having a replacement child. Their population is aging. Their military has been shown to be not as capable as first thought.

Certainly they can make pests of them selves as they do now, but as deterrent.,,what’s the deterrent. A European country invading Russia in response?
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The reality of war is that it is not logical and the reason they start is also not logical. take for instance WW1 started because of some high up dude in a fancy uniform got shot by a dissident nationalist. Because of this 11 million people died.
So coming up with a logical reason for it not happening won't stop it happening.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Slightly OT but in response to point above. I understand Russia has been aggressive ( understatement) but can’t see why European is too concerned. Yes build up European militaries to deter but I can’t see Russia being demographically capable of challenging Europe in a land war Away from any Russian border.
Except that Putin doesn't ask you to step outside, he kicks you in the groin when you're distracted and goes from there.

Russia wouldn't march on Berlin. It would use salami tactics against the weakest parts of Europe. For example, Moldova is not in NATO so is a prime target. It could carry out sabotage operations and deny responsibility. Or it could create fake uprisings in the Baltics like it did in Ukraine. Putin would try to slowly wear down European resolve until he got what he wanted. Even if he eventually lost, the cost of Europe would be devastating.

Couple that with the significant possibility of the far-right winning the French presidency, and that causes a lot of anxiety in Germany. So I think the chances of a pivot towards the Pacific are 0%. That's why I've maintained that the Japanese option for the RAN makes so much sense and realistically is the only option, unless Australia is going to be super-optimistic about the future and believes that the 2030s will be (for inexplicable reasons) much more peaceful than the last two decades.
 

iambuzzard

Well-Known Member
Except that Putin doesn't ask you to step outside, he kicks you in the groin when you're distracted and goes from there.

Russia wouldn't march on Berlin. It would use salami tactics against the weakest parts of Europe. For example, Moldova is not in NATO so is a prime target. It could carry out sabotage operations and deny responsibility. Or it could create fake uprisings in the Baltics like it did in Ukraine. Putin would try to slowly wear down European resolve until he got what he wanted. Even if he eventually lost, the cost of Europe would be devastating.

Couple that with the significant possibility of the far-right winning the French presidency, and that causes a lot of anxiety in Germany. So I think the chances of a pivot towards the Pacific are 0%. That's why I've maintained that the Japanese option for the RAN makes so much sense and realistically is the only option, unless Australia is going to be super-optimistic about the future and believes that the 2030s will be (for inexplicable reasons) much more peaceful than the last two decades.
It will take a pretty stupid politician to think the 2030s are going to be peaceful. Personally, I'd like to see 20 Evolved Mogamis in the fleet tomorrow!
Ain't gonna happen!
 

OldTex

Well-Known Member
But is that because our procurement system is fundamentally broken? To fully follow the process defined within the procurement system it can take a substantial period of time to assemble all of the documentation and the independent verification of any claims made in the tender documents as well as all specified compliances. Then there are the reviews, mandatory approval gates that must be passed before it is even submitted to the government for consideration and approval.
 

spoz

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The process is to ensure that we spend money neither unwisely, nor in a manner unfair to those offering us goods and services. And the definition of “unwisely” has expanded every time there is any sort of problem, while “unfairly” expands each time an unsuccessful bidder complains. Both are often as the result of an ANAO audit, typically conducted for the most part by young, and admittedly smart, recent graduates with little real world experience. In turn the press picks up the story and paints those doing the procurement as a bunch of idiots. That is far from the truth, but it sticks and yet another regulation and review process is put in place to prevent it happening again. Result? Those doing procurements become increasingly risk averse, and that means they seek to eliminate every risk. And, apart from actually being impossible, that just adds unnecessary layers, and therefore time, to the process.

In times of emergency a rapid acquisition process gets around a lot of that. Down the track problems sometimes emerge, commonly with support packages, but the procurements are done fast. One I am aware of, for a reasonably complex weapons systems was done, and the weapon fielded, in about 10 weeks from the time the operational commander identified the need. And we did have problems later, but the warfighters got what they needed.

So the solution to the problem is to accept that perfect processes are impossible, and that issues will arise. Attempt to mitigate, but not eliminate, the risk; and don’t react with changed regulation and more levels of review to every report in the media that a risk has been realised.

But that doesn’t mean complex acquisitions can be done over night. The technical and commercial assessments of such things take time, and some governance of that process is essential. So deciding on a ship to buy is never going to happen over night; it normally going to take months just to read and assess all the submitted documentation.
 
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