The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

rsemmes

Member
Ukraine has been down that road before when they gave up their nukes with supposed security guarantees. After all the blood Ukraine has shed, Zelenskyy has to have peace, but Ukraine can't have guaranteed peace without security guarantees. Nobody other than Trump and fence sitters actually trust Russia to honour anything without guarantees in place.
As to Zelenskyy and 15 minutes of fame you must not get any news where you are, he's in the news everyday where I am. I have a great deal of respect for the man. Everyone expected Ukraine to be solidly under Putin's control as was declared at the start of his 3 day SMO. After 3 years of a bloody near stalemate Zelenskyy has managed to keep Ukrainians united, strong and fighting on. I dare say anywhere else in the world there's many a politician who couldn't lead his people out of a wet paper bag. I see a lot of people on here that have no affinity for Zelenskyy which is their rite. Personally I believe he's a hero for leading his people as bravely as he has. I think NATO would do well to admit Ukrainians into the organization.
Did Zelenski achieved that (those guarantees) with his show? After being advice not to do that?
(15' in front of Trump, obviously.)

A lot of politicians worse than him, doesn't make him a leader (Führer); they are not in that situation, you don't know what they would do in that situation.
Before the invasion... After Mariupol... After Turkey... But, after Robotine? I consider him an idiot, not a hero. The situation was better then (no Trump to begin with), what do you do when you cannot win? Cut your losses (with NATO support).
It is a lot easier to be a "hero" when you are a general.

I also disagree with your "Everyone expected..."
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
So to ask directly, do you view the arctic convoys to The USSR as prolonging the war?
I'm of the opinion that Nazi Germany wouldn't have defeated the USSR even without those convoys but it would have been a longer and bloodier war. So I think they in fact shortened it. But if I'm wrong and the USSR wouldn't have stood without them, then yes they prolonged it. I reject the idea that we should tie our emotional and moral value judgements to the factual statements we make. Facts come first. Everything else second. There is only one criteria to answer the question of whether something prolongs a war. Does it make the war last longer? If so, it prolongs it. This is separate from the question of whether it's desirable to provide aid, and I reject the idea that any prolongation of war is wrong. In some cases prolonging a war might be the correct option.
 

Vanquish

Member
Did Zelenski achieved that (those guarantees) with his show? After being advice not to do that?
(15' in front of Trump, obviously.)

A lot of politicians worse than him, doesn't make him a leader (Führer); they are not in that situation, you don't know what they would do in that situation.
Before the invasion... After Mariupol... After Turkey... But, after Robotine? I consider him an idiot, not a hero. The situation was better then (no Trump to begin with), what do you do when you cannot win? Cut your losses (with NATO support).
It is a lot easier to be a "hero" when you are a general.

I also disagree with your "Everyone expected..."
As I said many people think little of Zelenskyy so we can certainly disagree. Not sure the relevance of the Fuhrer part.

Some people believe that Zelenskyy needs to be more humble and diplomatic on the world stage. Zelenskyy has not kept it a secret that he needs the help and support of the west to have any hope of keeping the wolf at the door and has thanked donor nations over and over again. However some would like to see Ukraine grovel more. Personally I'm surprised at that thought. Ukraine is bleeding Russia dry and doing the west a huge favour. Certainly not on the scale that Russia is doing to Ukraine of course. None the less, Russia is also paying a terrible price for a needless war. At any rate if you think he's an idiot, if he were a hero, at least in your mind, then I'd imagine Russia would be speaking Ukrainian by now. Or perhaps your want is to see Ukraine solidly under Russia's sphere.

I would be in the camp of one who really did imagine Russia would quickly overrun Ukraine. I'm constantly amazed at the resilience of the Ukrainian people.
 

Fredled

Active Member
rsemmes said:
How do you achieve peace? Through negotiations.
I will ask one more time, and this is a real question expecting a consistent answer: How do you contemplate negotiations with an enemy who is bombing your country every day, every hour of the day or of the night and did so without interruption for three years? "What kind of diplomacy are you talking about"[sic]?

When missiles and shells are falling on your country, you need first to address that. You need to bring air defence and counter battery radars, to destroy the ability of the enemy to conduct more strikes on your country. This is the first thing to do before negotiating. Trump wants to negotiate and "end the war" while Putin is still shelling Ukrainian cities and still has the possibility to do so. It's non sens. It's doing things upside down. First you need to destroy tanks, artillery, air bases and the navy, then kill every single soldier who doesn't surrender and then only can you offer to talk about peace in a civilised manner. If Trump is not willing to provide Ukraine the means to annihilate the threat from the Red Army, then he shouldn't pretend to "want peace immediately".
Second scenario: the enemy voluntary stops his terrorist attacks and withdraw hostile elements before being annihilated. Unfortunately we don't see that happening.

rsemmes said:
There is an Ukrainian manpower problem; just that, it could mean Russian superiority.
The continuous degradation of the Ukrainian economy could have something to do that 1/3 ~ 1/2 production.
The difference is that we know with relative accuracy what are the military manpower problem and the economic siutation of Ukraine. (By "we", it may not be the public, but intelligence commitees of the various countries helping Ukraine.) So it's not an unkown and it's already in the equation.

By contrast, we have only indirect elements signaling economic problems and manpower problems in Russia but we have no clear idea of the extent of these problems. In the calculation these data are supposed to remain unchanged because the change is not known.

Also unkown is the future European production. One can assert that it won't change a lot in the next year, or year and half because we know what decisions have been taken to affect production during the next 12 months. Beyond that time it will depend on the decision European countries are taking now.
I'm not over optimistic about rapid increase in European production, but some surprise can always happen.

The war will continue for at least one year. Save for an immediate and complete stop in Amercian support, which is unlikely, and which would not lead to Ukraine's capitulation before at least six months, worse case scenario.

Feanor said:
Connotations are irrelevant. Perhaps prolonging the war is a good thing. Perhaps it's not.
Thia question is irrelevant because based on a twisted view of the reality. Trump + The West + Ukraine have no power to stop or prolong the war. The war will stop or continue only according to Putin's personal decision. Trump can sign all the Rare Earth deals he wants, if Putin decides to re-attack after a peace deal, he will do it. If Trump manages to convince Zelensky to capitulate and give half of Ukraine, or the entirety depending on Putin's demands, nothing can prevent Putin to attack the next country in line geographically. Remember that the second request from Putin to achieve "peace quickly" is to remove the capacity of the countries in eastern Europe to defend themselves. Not only of Ukraine.

The real question is: Should Ukraine continue to fight against the invasion, against the occupation and for its independence?
Why in WW2, the answer was yes and why should it be no today?

Another valid question would be "is it worth to increase defence spending and military aid to Ukraine to eradicate Russia's means of terror"? I think the answer is also yes.
 
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Bob53

Well-Known Member
Do you have a source for that number? Or is it a hyperbole?



One other significant part. Russia has stated they don't want a ceasefire. So it's not just a matter of "trusting" them to hold a ceasefire. It's that they won't even agree to one.
Not hyperbole but it will take more digging than I have time for. There was an article in either LA time or NYT that picked apart the numbers and stated they were inflated. Similarly when Australia donated M777 guns, ammunition, bushmasters and M113s the value was their new or replacement value. The Bushmasters donated were amongst the oldest in the fleet from around 1999 and had seen service in Afghanistan and Iraq. The M113s were purchased in the 60s. Had a turret upgrade and extra wheel added in the 90s and they put a value on those of $10m each Which the Australian opposition pointed out at the time. Safe to say even if we halve it, the value were inflated for domestic and international political reasons.

What is the value of a 155mm shell produce at the end of the Cold War and you give it away? Is it the cost to manufacture it 25 years ago or the cost to replace it?
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
Yes, ambushing an elephant in a China shop.

Inside the Trump White House, officials blamed the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for the meltdown in the Oval Office on Friday, and expressed frustration that he pushed for security guarantees even though the US had made clear they wanted to negotiate that later, according to people familiar with the matter.
The officials had told their Ukrainian counterparts in advance of the meeting that Trump wanted to sign an economic partnership this week at a ministerial level, as aides worked on the details about security guarantees.


No matter what, the comedian wanted his 15' on screen.
He couldn’t trust Trump or Vance to honor security guarantees and that would be political suicide at home. All the US had to say is we will continue to provide support instead of the wish washy response they gave. Would you take a promise from Trump to fix that bit up later?
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
How do you achieve peace? Through negotiations. The agreement, not the initial positions. What (fantasy) is Ukraine initial position?
Negotiations require a level of trust. Russia Invaded Crimea. Then they had the fake uprising and invasion in Donbas and Luhansk. Then multiple broken ceasefires. Then the 2022 invasion and many atrocities. No one trusts Putin to keep his word. He says there should be no Ukraine so how do you reconcile negotiations when everything they other side wants means suicide of your nation.

never forget that Ukraine gave up all of it NucLear weapons in goodwill. It could have kept a few dozen but gave them up in goodwill based on the USA and Russias words. Its trust from that agreement has been shattered. And never forget Putin started this war because he doesn’t trust the west. As far as I can tell I have member hear any story, rumor, leak that western countries wanted to invade Russia. It is always the west wanting protection from Russian aggression and influence. They have a leader with the same mentality that had tanks roll into Poland and Hungary after the WW2. So 2 sides don’t trust each other and trump comes along and wants to over turn 100 years of mistrust just because he wrote a book and brags how he would end the war in a few days. He doesn’t get his way and is made to look like a giant fool so starts calling schoolyard taunts. It’s all nonsense.
 
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Redshift

Active Member
I'm of the opinion that Nazi Germany wouldn't have defeated the USSR even without those convoys but it would have been a longer and bloodier war. So I think they in fact shortened it. But if I'm wrong and the USSR wouldn't have stood without them, then yes they prolonged it. I reject the idea that we should tie our emotional and moral value judgements to the factual statements we make. Facts come first. Everything else second. There is only one criteria to answer the question of whether something prolongs a war. Does it make the war last longer? If so, it prolongs it. This is separate from the question of whether it's desirable to provide aid, and I reject the idea that any prolongation of war is wrong. In some cases prolonging a war might be the correct option.
Then I think we agree entirely.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
It was not just about the convoys but also the destruction of the Nazi industrial base by bombers flying in from England certainly there was co-operation in the allied plans in their operations
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I will ask one more time, and this is a real question expecting a consistent answer: How do you contemplate negotiations with an enemy who is bombing your country every day, every hour of the day or of the night and did so without interruption for three years? "What kind of diplomacy are you talking about"[sic]?

When missiles and shells are falling on your country, you need first to address that. You need to bring air defence and counter battery radars, to destroy the ability of the enemy to conduct more strikes on your country. This is the first thing to do before negotiating. Trump wants to negotiate and "end the war" while Putin is still shelling Ukrainian cities and still has the possibility to do so. It's non sens. It's doing things upside down. First you need to destroy tanks, artillery, air bases and the navy, then kill every single soldier who doesn't surrender and then only can you offer to talk about peace in a civilised manner. If Trump is not willing to provide Ukraine the means to annihilate the threat from the Red Army, then he shouldn't pretend to "want peace immediately".
Second scenario: the enemy voluntary stops his terrorist attacks and withdraw hostile elements before being annihilated. Unfortunately we don't see that happening.
This is a ridiculous position. It makes negotiating an end to wars generally almost impossible. You contemplate negotiations with an enemy who is bombing your country every day by coming up with a list of what you want, what you can plausibly offer in exchange, and then heading to the bargaining table and making a deal. Negotiations aren't the product of good will. They're an exchange.

Thia question is irrelevant because based on a twisted view of the reality. Trump + The West + Ukraine have no power to stop or prolong the war. The war will stop or continue only according to Putin's personal decision. Trump can sign all the Rare Earth deals he wants, if Putin decides to re-attack after a peace deal, he will do it. If Trump manages to convince Zelensky to capitulate and give half of Ukraine, or the entirety depending on Putin's demands, nothing can prevent Putin to attack the next country in line geographically. Remember that the second request from Putin to achieve "peace quickly" is to remove the capacity of the countries in eastern Europe to defend themselves. Not only of Ukraine.
This simply isn't true. Ukraine can stop the war by accepting Putin's demands. Trump and the west can stop the war by either cutting all aid to Ukraine and letting them lose, or by boosting aid to Ukraine with a full economic mobilization to a level Russia can't match.

The real question is: Should Ukraine continue to fight against the invasion, against the occupation and for its independence?
Why in WW2, the answer was yes and why should it be no today?
Your maximalist all or nothing position is disconnected from reality. Many wars don't end with a total victory or total defeat but in some sort of middle ground. On a side note your (and not only your) continuing WWII comparisons are complete bs. In WWII Hitler was out to exterminate the populations of the Soviet Union, including Ukraine, so fighting against him was basically the only viable option. There was no real peace option on the table, and the population would have been wiped out wholesale had he won. The option was to die fighting or to die as part Germany occupational measures. However this is clearly not the case with parts of Ukraine Russia has annexed. Nobody is cremating millions of Ukrainians in the Donbas or Crimea, and there is a peace option on the table. It's a bad option. Maybe continuing to fight is a better way forward then accepting that deal, but it's just not the same. The analogy fails. And by the way, Hitler opened up by having Italy and a gaggle of Eastern European satellites already in his pocket, rolled over Poland, France, Norway, and several lesser countries, and was plausibly on a path to dominating the entire European continent. Putin is stuck fighting village by village through the Donbas. Who is the greater threat here? Does anyone really think Russia can capture Warsaw or Berlin after what we have seen in Ukraine for the past 3 years?

Another valid question would be "is it worth to increase defence spending and military aid to Ukraine to eradicate Russia's means of terror"? I think the answer is also yes.
It's been worthwhile to increase European defense spending for at least the past 20 years. The current war is just the latest nasty reminder. I don't think anyone is arguing against increasing European defense spending.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Negotiations require a level of trust. Russia Invaded Crimea. Then they had the fake uprising and invasion in Donbas and Luhansk. Then multiple broken ceasefires. Then the 2022 invasion and many atrocities. No one trusts Putin to keep his word. He says there should be no Ukraine so how do you reconcile negotiations when everything they other side wants means suicide of your nation.
As above, Ukraine needs to figure out what it wants, and what it's willing to give in exchange, and come up with something commensurate that can bridge the gap at least part way. Realistically if the west wants Ukraine to be safe from Russian invasion they will have to offer post-war security guarantees. Those can be done within an EU framework, instead of a NATO one, and be just as binding (and in fact free from US interference). But the reality is that unless the west is going to drastically upscale aid to Ukraine, the war will have to end with Ukraine giving up some territory. And unless Ukraine fights to the point of collapse and then Russia rolls forward, the war will have to end with Ukraine intact as an independent country. The space between these two points is where the negotiations should be happening. How much territory to give up? What kind of disarmament requirements can be set up for Russia? For example, one requirement could be to drastically limit Russian military presence in a zone of say 400 kms from Ukraine, with inspections and overflights by international observers, and no large scale exercises allowed near the Ukrainian border (with some sort of carve out for joint training with Belarus but with Ukrainian observers present, and a size limit). There are many things that can be done as part of a peace arrangement that makes it much harder for Russia to even prepare for another invasion.

never forget that Ukraine gave up all of it NucLear weapons in goodwill. It could have kept a few dozen but gave them up in goodwill based on the USA and Russias words. Its trust from that agreement has been shattered.
This argument keeps coming up over and over again but it's not really relevant. There was pretty much no way Ukraine in the 90's could have kept their nukes. They didn't give them up in good will, they gave them up because their economy was in shambles, they needed western aid, and both Russia and the USA were pressuring them to do it. They could have told Russia and the USA to kick rocks, but that president would have been out of office and replaced with one willing to give up nukes at the very next election. I'm reasonably confident nobody in the west, and nobody in the east, wanted a nuclear Ukraine. Moreover it's not clear that keeping a few dozen of the simpler (and therefore easier to maintain) nukes would have mattered much. If Ukraine were to drop a nuke on Russia, the response could be so destructive as to preclude the existence of Ukraine as a nation-state, and Russia could do it with their tactical arsenal alone. Nuclear deterrence works through mutually assured destruction. This requires an arsenal large enough and delivery capability credible enough to deter the other side. Pre-'14 Ukraine's military was a sad joke, there is no way they could have maintained that. '15-'22 there were efforts made to move forward, but they still had huge problems that they didn't overcome.

And never forget Putin started this war because he doesn’t trust the west. As far as I can tell I have member hear any story, rumor, leak that western countries wanted to invade Russia. It is always the west wanting protection from Russian aggression and influence. They have a leader with the same mentality that had tanks roll into Poland and Hungary after the WW2. So 2 sides don’t trust each other and trump comes along and wants to over turn 100 years of mistrust just because he wrote a book and brags how he would end the war in a few days. He doesn’t get his way and is made to look like a giant fool so starts calling schoolyard taunts. It’s all nonsense.
I think Trump wants to end the conflict in Ukraine or pull the US out of it and I suspect he's willing to go with either outcome. That explains a lot of his comments about Ukraine having cards with the US at the table. I would not be surprised if Zelensky's refusal to sign the minerals deal and to be willing to negotiate with Russia will lead the US drastically cutting aid to Ukraine, possibly completely ending it. Remember Trump wants to focus on China, and wants to cut defense spending at the same time. This pretty much requires pulling back in a lot of areas.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Define "pulling back" America does not have troops on the ground in Ukraine ,certainly around the world there many
I would think the ending of sanctions by the U.S against Russia may have some appeal to those in the U.S looking for some good deals it would certainly enable Russia in its war in Ukraine by access to critical electronics
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Define "pulling back" America does not have troops on the ground in Ukraine ,certainly around the world there many
I would think the ending of sanctions by the U.S against Russia may have some appeal to those in the U.S looking for some good deals it would certainly enable Russia in its war in Ukraine by access to critical electronics
I believe Trump intends to reduce US military spending and that includes commitments the US has made. The war in Ukraine definitely requires US military resources. US recon planes and UAVs fly along the edges of Ukrainian airspace along with other NATO countries. What percentage of those recon flights are USA vs other NATO countries? The US is involved in supporting the maintenance and training of Ukrainian personnel. And the US is spending money to ship equipment to Ukraine in bulk. Some of it might be old, but even old equipment isn't shipped for free. The recent Greek debacle revealed that the cost of bringing an M2A2 ODS Bradley out from storage and back into working condition, admittedly with some upgrades, would be 8-10 million USD per vehicle, a price tag that's quite ridiculous, and nonetheless real. What did it cost to supply the Bradley's to Ukraine that they have received? But much of the equipment the US provided wasn't all that old. Some of the MRAPs might be "Middle Easter adventure" surplus, but they were relatively new vehicles. Strykers, Javelin's, Excalibur shells, Patriot SAMs, NASAMS, and much else of what the US was involved with wasn't all that old or all that free. Often these weren't accounting dollars. And there are US advisers in Ukraine. All of this might pale in comparison to a committment to another Iraq or Afghanistan, but it's not nothing. If the plan is to massively cut defense spending while still preparing for a confrontation with China, that means all other committments are reduced.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I will ask one more time, and this is a real question expecting a consistent answer: How do you contemplate negotiations with an enemy who is bombing your country every day, every hour of the day or of the night and did so without interruption for three years? "What kind of diplomacy are you talking about"[sic]?
How do negotiations work? In general and in wars in particular? I am really not entirely sure what you are asking, even though the question you say is real. Shouldn’t there be some type of negotiations or start of and a proposal, and hopefully reached agreement, for the enemy to stop “bombing your country every day”? I mean there should be certain steps taken in order for the conversation to even begin before the bombing stops or reduced to some agreed capacity. You say later in your post that things are upside down, while I see that, even without reading the post further, what you are proposing with your question is actually upside down. I am guessing the first step towards stopping the bombing would be saying or even implying that one is ready to talk and willing to negotiate. This should not be followed by something along the lines of “first, Russia needs to withdraw all its forces from the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine” and other conditions. Do you see this as a reasonable demand to even begin the talks? Obviously I am referring to the current situation. There are no talks otherwise, right? To continue the thought process here, let’s assume in some bizarro world (because this is what you are asking and proposing), Russia agrees to these terms and withdraws its troops from Ukraine (does that include Crimea?). What then? What are they going to negotiate about? Ukrainian NATO membership? Russian disarmament? Reparations paid to Ukraine? New European security architecture? Status of Crimea, provided no troop withdrawal from Crimea takes place? This is a real question too.

Furthermore, if this proposed bizarro world scenario were to happen, we would go back in time to about February 2022, before the invasion, but without thousands dead, destroyed and scarred economies, a clearly shifted (at least perceptions of the) world order, and so on. Back to the time when the Russian troops were outside of Ukraine, for the most part, and no bombings “every day, every hour of the day or of the night”. Basically, while far from ideal, but, given the circumstances, the best time for diplomacy to take place. Is it not?

Let us come back to the real world, however. Russia controls about 20% of Ukraine today. The perspective of forcing it out from this territory is extremely bleak. This accounts for the military assistance from the United States, which may or may not end, but will likely (in my opinion, definitely) be at the very least reduced. A good chunk of the aid that had been provided by Europe requires either a sign off from the USA or straight up come from the United States (via monetary exchange, one could assume). Such as air defense, for example. I am not even talking about the satellite data and intel. Starlink is just as crucial, but less likely to be cut off, as long it is paid for. And so on. Ukraine is in no position to say “remove the troops or else!”, “stop the bombings or else!”. It is in no position to demand anything. Currently, the best Ukraine can offer is to keep grinding. Is it not the case? In the meantime, Russia is slowly advancing, though at a great cost (there is no stalemate). Everyone understands (or they should) that Russia does not need some great breakthrough that they likely cannot take advantage of anyway in the current circumstances, but a slow grind until it is slow no more once Ukrainian resources are exhausted…

Anyway… I wanted to reply to other posts, as well as to expand on this one, and I will try to do so tomorrow. But yeah, @Fredled, I understand there is righteousness, right and wrong, and whatever else, but reality always comes first. Feelings don’t matter at all, really. We all have them. Any proposal should be connected to the reality. See, I personally wish there was an independent Ukraine with borders as they wish; a Russia that was a great prosperous country, as would be Ukraine and any other; an Africa, free of war and disease; Israelis and Palestinians coexisting, as well as the rest of the mIddle East; a China and a United States of America that get along and work together to better the world, as would anyone else; heck, a world, that we all live in, regardless what part of it we are from, where there was pure understanding and no competition (for dominance of ideas or otherwise) among the countries, all equal with a clear voice, a “world peace”, as some virtual miss Universe would say; an Elon Musk that is “normal”, perhaps; and so on. Then you wake up and the reality hits you right in the face and here we are. Some get up right away when the alarm clock rings; others prefer to spend half an hour in bed before getting up; some get up without the alarm ringing at all; then there are those who sleep through the alarm, past the clock battery life; but all wake up one way or the other (unless they died in their sleep, of course).

I should add, you asked for a “consistent answer” and I am not sure what you really meant by it, but if you go back through all my posts since I joined this forum, you will see what I am saying here is very consistent with all my other posts. I have a feeling that “consistency” is not the word you were looking for though.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group




In the end the bos still in White House. This ranting by Euro journos, online PPL toward Trump means nothing and more and more like sulking as in the end Euro need 'Strong US Backing' for any plan on Ukraine. Well that's what Euro leaders said. They will move if US back them.

Trump knows that, and that's why he's playing this rough out game to Zelensky when Zelensky try to 'negotiate' with him. I personally suspect after roughing up Zelensky and he has nowhere else to but Euro leaders, this latest developments put cold shower realities back to him. US will lead negotiations with Russia and Euro with Ukraine just need to follow. Whatever the tone and talks, in the end realities come with the sentence "need US strong backing".
 

rsemmes

Member
As I said many people think little of Zelenskyy so we can certainly disagree. Not sure the relevance of the Fuhrer part.
Some people believe that Zelenskyy needs to be more humble and diplomatic on the world stage. Zelenskyy has not kept it a secret that he needs the help and support of the west to have any hope of keeping the wolf at the door and has thanked donor nations over and over again. However some would like to see Ukraine grovel more. Personally I'm surprised at that thought. Ukraine is bleeding Russia dry and doing the west a huge favour. Certainly not on the scale that Russia is doing to Ukraine of course. None the less, Russia is also paying a terrible price for a needless war. At any rate if you think he's an idiot, if he were a hero, at least in your mind, then I'd imagine Russia would be speaking Ukrainian by now. Or perhaps your want is to see Ukraine solidly under Russia's sphere.
I would be in the camp of one who really did imagine Russia would quickly overrun Ukraine. I'm constantly amazed at the resilience of the Ukrainian people.
Führer, not the Führer. Leader, Zelenski is a leader, not a hero.
"...doing the west a huge favour". This is a proxy war, we reap the benefits and Ukraine pile the corpses high. That is a very good reason for Ukraine to keep fighting.
Nothing personal... "your want". As long as it's not in my back yard, I don't care what empires do wherever they want.
I am not amazed at all, a big country with a big army. Russia didn't mobilized one million men along the border, it wasn't the Russian Army, but an expeditionary corps.
 

rsemmes

Member
I will ask one more time...
The difference is that we know with relative accuracy what are the military manpower problem and the economic siutation of Ukraine. (By "we", it may not be the public, but intelligence commitees of the various countries helping Ukraine.) So it's not an unkown and it's already in the equation.
The real question is: Should Ukraine continue to fight against the invasion, against the occupation and for its independence?
You got the long answer (I mean you were given, again), I will give you the short one:
a/ You are at war.
b/ Why do you stop shooting?

We know because Ukraine has been telling us only the truth and always the truth? That is an extremely naive assumption. The equation is bleed Russia because it suits our interests, as Vanquish said.

What "independence"? Should Ukraine keep fighting a war that it will never win? We don't talk about victory, but about peace.
 

rsemmes

Member
He couldn’t trust Trump or Vance to honor security guarantees and that would be political suicide at home. All the US had to say is we will continue to provide support instead of the wish washy response they gave. Would you take a promise from Trump to fix that bit up later?
Instead of Zelenski's wish washy?
I would take a chance to end a war that I cannot win. I would try to get extra help for that peace, EU, and would try not to antagonize this one, US. Specially not Trump, not on TV; as Zelenski was told.
As I said, I don't consider Trump a responsible adult, that should have answered your question even before asking it.
 
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