The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
This is also how the Americans valued their obsolete equipment. M113s were valued at $10 million despite being 50 years old. Australia did the same.
Do you have a source for that number? Or is it a hyperbole?

Nice sum up. What is boils down to is that based on past experience Ukraine won’t trust Russia to hold any ceasefire, Russia will not cede any gains in return for a ceasefire or peace, and Ukraine will not agree to Russian request to demobilise their military. I don’t think those Ukrainian positions are unreasonable. It would be like trusting the Mexican fentanyl cartels to manage the border crossings in Texas.
One other significant part. Russia has stated they don't want a ceasefire. So it's not just a matter of "trusting" them to hold a ceasefire. It's that they won't even agree to one.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
President Putin made a similar claim to Tucker Carlson in an interview without being asked or providing proof,I was not asking about previous actions of the C.I.A often verified ,I am just asking if you have credible sources to reinforce your statement of the C.I.A in the uprising against the then Ukraine government
This article goes into detail some C.I.A involvement in Ukraine which is post 2014
Quoting the article….residents of Crimea voted to cede from Ukraine…..that was after the Russians invaded and controlled the elections….
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
Beggars can't be choosers.

I think that Zelenski was ungrateful, as he was before towards Germany. He is not buying weapons in the international market, he is taking what he is given.
There was a moment in the interview, with him with his arms folded, when I thought that I was looking at a child with a tantrum. I thought he got the point: NATO will not fight this war for him. He thought that he was in US to tell POTUS what to do? I am not going to call Trump a responsible adult, nor diplomatic, but Trump is a position of force; Zelenski is not.

Trump didn't told him to go ... himself, just "when he is ready for peace". I wonder what options Zelenski thinks that he, Zelenski, has. I understand the messages of support to Zelenski (words are cheap), but I am just starting to consider if he is delusional or just plain stupid. What do you do when you are losing a war?
How do you think there can be peace with the Russians demanding demobilisation of the Ukraine Military, Russian controlled elections, Ukraine cede the land that was taken, and that Russia will hold any ceasefire when they have broken 4 other ceasefires when it suited them.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
Conspiracy hat time-

This is Ukraine playing 4d Chess. Zelensky has made all the US MAGA anti Ukraine rehtoric anti Zelenksy rhetoric instead. Look at Lindsay Graham's ( most anti russia war hawk) statement today, it was antu Zelensky not anti Ukraine.

If Zelensky has a chosen successor who is as anti russia as he is, he can simply step down and give trump a massive egoo boost and "win". The new successor can just come in and simply say that Zelensky was wrong , Trump was right, Trump is awesome, Putin is an evil dictator and a weakling compared to the mighty trump. Ukriane gets all the US support back, Europe no more ramped up than ever before, gives more aid to Ukraine and Ukraine's position is better than ever. Zelensky has his legacy solidifed as the manwho sacrifieced his leadership for Ukraine and remains the ultimate darling of Europe.

Conspiracy hat off.

If Ukraine is not plaanning this, then they should and they should also hire me as a consultant and give me 10 million dollars for by big brain ideas.:cool:
You arae aware that Lindsay Grahams nick name is flip flop? He changes position weekly on everything depending on which way the wind is blowing. It’s interesting that a nobody senator who weeks ago was dismissed as a dumb anti Russian is now widely quoted and this week seen to be smart.
 
Question now simply can Euro zone continue the war without US, as more and more signals from US Trump that they will not support the longer war. If Euro want to continue the war until last Ukrainian or last Russian, then shown the money and equipment to compensate US supply sides. Just that simple.
I think the answer there is a firm no. The EU would have to get through the political process of making it happen and the physical process of spinning up production within a very short time window to save Ukraine. Given how long absolutely everything takes to happen in the Western world, you're probably talking 2-3 years minimum before sufficient aid is available to Ukraine. The war will be over by then.

With that said though, I'd be shocked if US aid to Ukraine is cut off or even reduced. Trump cares about one thing: winning. Every decision must be spun as a win for Trump. There must always be a deal, a notch on the belt. Or at least the perception of it.

So what is the win here? I think Trump originally thought it would be a peace deal, but one look under the hood told him that wasn't happening any time soon. So he was prepared to temporarily settle for the minerals deal until the kerfuffle with Zelensky. But pulling out gets him nothing. The US is effectively sidelined if that happens. His only play is some kind of deal with Ukraine to keep things going, because it is the only way he keeps skin in the game. He will try to force some extra cosmetic concession, maybe a public apology from the Z man. This has to turn into a win for him, as must everything. And the only way that happens is if the US keeps Ukraine alive until (at least in Trump's imagination) a real peace deal is possible.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
The amended rare earth deal was not even that bad and more importantly, would never have been reality to begin with, Trump just wanted a quick deal done to show the world and his base that he is the master deal maker. This should have been a lay up for Zelensky. He should have gone in, said thank you, praised Trump and subtly hint that US could get even more raw materials if they helped UKr take back the Donbass.


Now going back to the war @Feanor does any Russian source have a count of Fibre optic hits?

A pro Russian twitter made a list that in 2 months.
145 Tanks 254 IFVs and APCs 164 IMVs and around 110 artillery losses.

COnsidering the sheer number of fivre videos I have been seeing, this number is not only believable but almost feels like underselling it. Even the lancet in its heyday did not have this many published hits. The current rate of Ukr vehicle losses to Fibre optics really unsustainable. I wonder how long this advantge will last? so far, both sides have managed to cancel out advantages in a few months.

As per Fighterbomber, Ukrainian EW has managed to reduce the accuracy of UPMKs to a significant extent, lancets are being dowened easily by interceptor FPVs, I wonder what ends up countering the fibre optics.
apparently the Ukrainians have developed a method to follow fibre optic cables with Counter drone teams. Special Kherson Cat (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social)
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Yes. But last time I checked, the US was not buying Russian energy at a higher rate than it aided Ukraine.
This is a key point, all Euro Ukr supporters conveniently ignore. They contantly badger Turjey and India for being middlemen to Russian gas/oil, while ignoring who are the end users of said gas/oil.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Ananda said:
Question now simply can Euro zone continue the war without US, as more and more signals from US Trump that they will not support the longer war. If Euro want to continue the war until last Ukrainian or last Russian, then shown the money and equipment to compensate US supply sides. Just that simple.
SinisterMinister said:
I think the answer there is a firm no.
I would rather say "yes and no". In the short term, 3 to 6 months, Ukraine has enough material to keep fighting almost as today, after that, it will be gradually more and more difficult. Russian advance will inevitably accelerate but the Ukrainian defence won't collapse.
There are two unknown to consider:
1/ Increase of European production: This is indeed very slow, too little, too late but it's increasing nonetheless. By how much it will increase is difficult to estimate.
2/ The ability of Russia to conduct the war at the same level as it does now. Russian production is increasing faster than European production but manpower shortage will be an increasing problem. The continuous degradation of the Russian economy is also going to weight on decisions.

SinisterMinister said:
With that said though, I'd be shocked if US aid to Ukraine is cut off or even reduced. Trump cares about one thing: winning. Every decision must be spun as a win for Trump. There must always be a deal, a notch on the belt. Or at least the perception of it.
So what is the win here? I think Trump originally thought it would be a peace deal, but one look under the hood told him that wasn't happening any time soon. So he was prepared to temporarily settle for the minerals deal until the kerfuffle with Zelensky. But pulling out gets him nothing. The US is effectively sidelined if that happens. His only play is some kind of deal with Ukraine to keep things going, because it is the only way he keeps skin in the game.
Me too, I would be shocked because aid to Ukraine is now aid to Europe as a whole. There is no differentiation any more between military efforts on different points of the western Russian Federation/Eastern Europe border, aka the "Line of Contact". The same security guarantees should apply from Crimea to Finland.
Reducing aid to Ukraine, as well as reducing it in other parts of the Line of Contact, would be breaking the most important alliance the US had in its history. If Europeans can't trust the US in the defence area, then nobody in the world can trust the US. The global influence of the US has been already dwindling, but this would be the nail on the coffin. The US has a chance to show strength and it would be very bad to show weakness right now.

The good thing in this story is that Zelensky has proven to whoever it may concern that Ukraine is not a puppet of the US. A whole wall of the Russian propaganda argument has crumbled. It should be embarrassing at the Politbureau.

Bob53 said:
Very good point that the Russian meeting was held in private but this one on TV….
The meeting with Russians was not at presidential level. Ukraine held numerous meetings and phone calls at the same level as that of the meeting in Saudi Arabia with the Russians which were not made public.
Trump and Zelensky also met off camera before the meeting at the Oval Office

The point is rather that Zelensky infuriated Trump and JD by bringing up topics which had been already discussed before and which should have stayed away from the press. JD (or Rubio?) even told him explicitly. Zelensky turned into an open debate what was supposed to be a substanceless mutual exchange of compliments, smiles and handshakes. That was probably his biggest mistake.
____________________________

Trump wants a cease fire immediately (video)
As I understand, there was an unwritten demand by Donald Trump to Zelensky that he stops fighting immediately after signing the Rare Earth Agreement.
This is an irrealistic demand because it would be suicide for Ukraine.

meme_zelensky_leavesovalofficce.jpg
 
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rsemmes

Member
Here is a transcript of the meeting that everyone is interested in. I'm sure most have seen something similar already. When I watch the videos and read the transcript it seems clear to me that Zelenskyy was ambushed by Vance and Trump. We know there is no love lost between Trump and Zelenskyy. Trump recently called Zelenskyy a dictator. Then there is the fact that Trump got impeached for trying to extort Zelenskyy so there's history. I have to wonder why sensitive negotiations were being hashed out in front of the media. Was the media in the room when the US and Russia were working on their backroom deals, without any European countries present? Why was Tass allowed in the oval office when AP and Reuters were banned? There's lots to digest here in regards to Trumps America. It's clear to me the US is going their own way from now on and not relying on allies which is their right of course. Perhaps the next time though when the US is trolling for a coalition of the willing they may well have to go it alone.
Yes, ambushing an elephant in a China shop.

Inside the Trump White House, officials blamed the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for the meltdown in the Oval Office on Friday, and expressed frustration that he pushed for security guarantees even though the US had made clear they wanted to negotiate that later, according to people familiar with the matter.
The officials had told their Ukrainian counterparts in advance of the meeting that Trump wanted to sign an economic partnership this week at a ministerial level, as aides worked on the details about security guarantees.


No matter what, the comedian wanted his 15' on screen.
 

rsemmes

Member
How do you think there can be peace with the Russians demanding demobilisation of the Ukraine Military, Russian controlled elections, Ukraine cede the land that was taken, and that Russia will hold any ceasefire when they have broken 4 other ceasefires when it suited them.
How do you achieve peace? Through negotiations. The agreement, not the initial positions. What (fantasy) is Ukraine initial position?
 

rsemmes

Member
2/ The ability of Russia to conduct the war at the same level as it does now. Russian production is increasing faster than European production but manpower shortage will be an increasing problem. The continuous degradation of the Russian economy is also going to weight on decisions.
There is an Ukrainian manpower problem; just that, it could mean Russian superiority.
The continuous degradation of the Ukrainian economy could have something to do with that 1/3 ~ 1/2 production.

Edit.
This is about the mineral agreement (CSIS).
Between 2022 and 2023, nearly half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity was either occupied by Russian forces, destroyed, or damaged, while about half of the country’s large network substations sustained damage from missile and drone strikes. As a result, Ukraine has been left with only about one-third of its prewar power capacity.
(There will need to be a significant buildup of energy infrastructure for mineral exploration or production to commence.)
 
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Redshift

Active Member
Well it certainly could prolong a war in principle and likely does so here. What's implicit is the assumption that prolonging a war is a bad thing. And that's not always true. Your argument would not be that it doesn't prolong the war, that's silly. It obviously does by preventing Ukraine's defeat. Your argument would be that this is a good thing.
I said it the way I did because "prolonging the war" has been carried very negative connotations, I would never describe the aid given to the USSR during WW2 as "prolonging the war", just like I would never describe the lease lend and north Atlantic convoys that auded the UK in defending itself against Germany as "prolonging the war".

These events were about enabling the USSR and the UK to defend themselves and maintain their own sovereignty against an aggressor.

I feel the same way about aiding Ukraine against the current Russian invasion.

Has anyone ever described providing arms to Korea, Cambodia, Vietnam the UK or the USSR as "prolonging the war" instead of just insisting that if you can't win on your own then surrendering is better than fighting?
 

Redshift

Active Member
Yes, Zelensky seems still in believe that Trump will still entertaint Biden POV. I don't know whether there're his people that warn him, that Trump is anti Biden. That's also the point that Vance lash out to him.

In the end Trump shown just what he promise to his constituents, that he will not give any more money to Ukraine and he will begin to collect what's he believe it's payment due. This is Trump ways shown US domestic politics shown precedence over foreign policy. He is determine to shown that he is anti Biden on the matter of Ukraine war, and he will do complete opposite.
Trump is anti anyone that isn't trump.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I said it the way I did because "prolonging the war" has been carried very negative connotations, I would never describe the aid given to the USSR during WW2 as "prolonging the war", just like I would never describe the lease lend and north Atlantic convoys that auded the UK in defending itself against Germany as "prolonging the war".

These events were about enabling the USSR and the UK to defend themselves and maintain their own sovereignty against an aggressor.

I feel the same way about aiding Ukraine against the current Russian invasion.

Has anyone ever described providing arms to Korea, Cambodia, Vietnam the UK or the USSR as "prolonging the war" instead of just insisting that if you can't win on your own then surrendering is better than fighting?
Providing aid and support to South Vietnam was also sold as "helping them defend themselves". Hindsight is 2020. Is Ukraine South Vietnam or South Korea? Neither, it's Ukraine. So the aid prolongs the war. Connotations are irrelevant. Perhaps prolonging the war is a good thing. Perhaps it's not. Time will tell.

Or by not attacking and invading in the first place? That's a good way of maintaining peace.
Well it's a little too late for that.
 

Redshift

Active Member
Providing aid and support to South Vietnam was also sold as "helping them defend themselves". Hindsight is 2020. Is Ukraine South Vietnam or South Korea? Neither, it's Ukraine. So the aid prolongs the war. Connotations are irrelevant. Perhaps prolonging the war is a good thing. Perhaps it's not. Time will tell.



Well it's a little too late for that.

So to ask directly, do you view the arctic convoys to The USSR as prolonging the war?
 

Vanquish

Member
Yes, ambushing an elephant in a China shop.

Inside the Trump White House, officials blamed the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for the meltdown in the Oval Office on Friday, and expressed frustration that he pushed for security guarantees even though the US had made clear they wanted to negotiate that later, according to people familiar with the matter.
The officials had told their Ukrainian counterparts in advance of the meeting that Trump wanted to sign an economic partnership this week at a ministerial level, as aides worked on the details about security guarantees.


No matter what, the comedian wanted his 15' on screen.
Ukraine has been down that road before when they gave up their nukes with supposed security guarantees. After all the blood Ukraine has shed, Zelenskyy has to have peace, but Ukraine can't have guaranteed peace without security guarantees. Nobody other than Trump and fence sitters actually trust Russia to honour anything without guarantees in place.

As to Zelenskyy and 15 minutes of fame you must not get any news where you are, he's in the news everyday where I am. I have a great deal of respect for the man. Everyone expected Ukraine to be solidly under Putin's control as was declared at the start of his 3 day SMO. After 3 years of a bloody near stalemate Zelenskyy has managed to keep Ukrainians united, strong and fighting on. I dare say anywhere else in the world there's many a politician who couldn't lead his people out of a wet paper bag. I see a lot of people on here that have no affinity for Zelenskyy which is their rite. Personally I believe he's a hero for leading his people as bravely as he has. I think NATO would do well to admit Ukrainians into the organization.
 
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