Ananda said:
Question now simply can Euro zone continue the war without US, as more and more signals from US Trump that they will not support the longer war. If Euro want to continue the war until last Ukrainian or last Russian, then shown the money and equipment to compensate US supply sides. Just that simple.
SinisterMinister said:
I think the answer there is a firm no.
I would rather say "yes and no". In the short term, 3 to 6 months, Ukraine has enough material to keep fighting almost as today, after that, it will be gradually more and more difficult. Russian advance will inevitably accelerate but the Ukrainian defence won't collapse.
There are two unknown to consider:
1/ Increase of European production: This is indeed very slow, too little, too late but it's increasing nonetheless. By how much it will increase is difficult to estimate.
2/ The ability of Russia to conduct the war at the same level as it does now. Russian production is increasing faster than European production but manpower shortage will be an increasing problem. The continuous degradation of the Russian economy is also going to weight on decisions.
SinisterMinister said:
With that said though, I'd be shocked if US aid to Ukraine is cut off or even reduced. Trump cares about one thing: winning. Every decision must be spun as a win for Trump. There must always be a deal, a notch on the belt. Or at least the perception of it.
So what is the win here? I think Trump originally thought it would be a peace deal, but one look under the hood told him that wasn't happening any time soon. So he was prepared to temporarily settle for the minerals deal until the kerfuffle with Zelensky. But pulling out gets him nothing. The US is effectively sidelined if that happens. His only play is some kind of deal with Ukraine to keep things going, because it is the only way he keeps skin in the game.
Me too, I would be shocked because aid to Ukraine is now aid to Europe as a whole. There is no differentiation any more between military efforts on different points of the western Russian Federation/Eastern Europe border, aka the "Line of Contact". The same security guarantees should apply from Crimea to Finland.
Reducing aid to Ukraine, as well as reducing it in other parts of the Line of Contact, would be breaking the most important alliance the US had in its history. If Europeans can't trust the US in the defence area, then nobody in the world can trust the US. The global influence of the US has been already dwindling, but this would be the nail on the coffin. The US has a chance to show strength and it would be very bad to show weakness right now.
The good thing in this story is that Zelensky has proven to whoever it may concern that Ukraine is not a puppet of the US. A whole wall of the Russian propaganda argument has crumbled. It should be embarrassing at the Politbureau.
Bob53 said:
Very good point that the Russian meeting was held in private but this one on TV….
The meeting with Russians was not at presidential level. Ukraine held numerous meetings and phone calls at the same level as that of the meeting in Saudi Arabia with the Russians which were not made public.
Trump and Zelensky also met off camera before the meeting at the Oval Office
The point is rather that Zelensky infuriated Trump and JD by bringing up topics which had been already discussed before and which should have stayed away from the press. JD (or Rubio?) even told him explicitly. Zelensky turned into an open debate what was supposed to be a substanceless mutual exchange of compliments, smiles and handshakes. That was probably his biggest mistake.
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Trump wants a cease fire immediately (video)
As I understand, there was an unwritten demand by Donald Trump to Zelensky that he stops fighting immediately after signing the Rare Earth Agreement.
This is an irrealistic demand because it would be suicide for Ukraine.
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