The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
This is not a representative graph. It only shows local monetary value of donations, but it fails to deduct Europe's energy imports from the total. Which if adjusted to PPP differences between Europe and Russia, would certainly put Europe in the negative.

Factors that negate Europe's aid:
  1. Russian PPP is much higher due to lower labor costs, access to local natural resources.
  2. European aid is calculated in monetary value to Europe, not Ukraine. That Leopard 1 costs $20-30 million to replace with a Leopard 2A8, but a Leopard 1 isn't worth $20-30 million to Ukraine.
  3. European war materiel production costs are the world's highest due to bad defense-MIC synergy and decades long disarmament.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
The Trump Zelensky meeting at the Oval Office was the most incredible event I have seen in my entire life.
Everything went very well, even friendly. Then, for no apparent reason, JD Vance suddenly started to show anger at Zelensky, and Trump, following up on what JD was saying, almost yelled at the Ukrainian president. Poor Zelensky didn't understand what happened.
It's unbelievable how fast JD Vance and Trump fell offensed. Zelensky didn't say anything wrong, IMO. The US president and vice-president behaved in non professional and overly emotional manner. The signature of the agreement was canceled and Zelensky asked to leave early. They callapsed the talks in a matter of seconds.
It started when Zelensky said that the US will feel the effect of the war in Ukraine. Zelensky didn't express his idea properly and Trump interpreted it in a wrong way.

Zelensky has dramatically improved his English. He is now able to make long sentences and understand most of the time, but not always. Yet, language barriers and custom differences shouldn't lead to the collapse of a conversation at such level. They should have at least consulted their aides to fix the misunderstanding before cancelling all further events.
The state of the US leadership is extremely worrying.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Only if you count the EU as a whole. As a country the US has provided more than any other. It's also an awkward and I suspect dishonest way to show the data. Instead of an increasing total what would this chart look like with deliveries by month? That cheerful upward trend would be gone revealing a far less pleasant reality.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
This article suggests much of the money spent on aid to Ukraine is really replenishing older U.S stocks and improving its manufacturing capability and capacity certainly handy to have if the Pacific arena has a war start
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
The Trump Zelensky meeting at the Oval Office was the most incredible event I have seen in my entire life.
Everything went very well, even friendly. Then, for no apparent reason, JD Vance suddenly started to show anger at Zelensky, and Trump, following up on what JD was saying, almost yelled at the Ukrainian president. Poor Zelensky didn't understand what happened.
It's unbelievable how fast JD Vance and Trump fell offensed. Zelensky didn't say anything wrong, IMO. The US president and vice-president behaved in non professional and overly emotional manner. The signature of the agreement was canceled and Zelensky asked to leave early. They callapsed the talks in a matter of seconds.
It started when Zelensky said that the US will feel the effect of the war in Ukraine. Zelensky didn't express his idea properly and Trump interpreted it in a wrong way.

Zelensky has dramatically improved his English. He is now able to make long sentences and understand most of the time, but not always. Yet, language barriers and custom differences shouldn't lead to the collapse of a conversation at such level. They should have at least consulted their aides to fix the misunderstanding before cancelling all further events.
The state of the US leadership is extremely worrying.
This was a conversation that should of been conducted away from the media.

The state of US leadership under Trump was worrying before this encounter.;its complete weirdness has now been reinforced.
I’ve seen 10 year olds having a bad day show more maturity.
Frightening to predict how this plays out for the Ukraine conflict .

Regards S
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
This article suggests much of the money spent on aid to Ukraine is really replenishing older U.S stocks and improving its manufacturing capability and capacity certainly handy to have if the Pacific arena has a war start
This has been known for 3 years. And not only the US.
Most equipment going into Ukraine no matter the source, is old equipment drawn from reserves or due for replacement.
When you hear of some $5 billion aid program, $5 billion is what it costs to replace that equipment with something new. Not how much the old equipment is worth. Hence $20 million Leopard 1s.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
A few things from yesterday shit show:

Trump keeps repeating rare earths and pronounces it really weird (is it rare or raw? Or whatever he says);
- 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 die every week on both sides: is it just numbers he made up or do they mean anything?
- Zelensky says they now have LNG terminals in Ukraine - as far as I am aware, they do not;
- The question to Zelensky from the reporter “Do you think President Trump is on your side” is dumb and provocative;
- Zelensky’s answer is just as dumb and provocative, ie “make Putin withdraw from our land”;
- Zelensky was frustrated from the very beginning and through out; body language showed just as much; looked completely unprepared for the “meet the press” and the shit show; big mistake and should not have been overlooked by the handlers;
- Trump said he is not looking forward to sending arms but to peace, yet - yes, he would send weapons, but hopefully not very much because he thinks they can get to peace quickly;
He also said that he doesn’t want to talk about security guarantees because he wants to get the deal done first; security is then easy; the US hasn’t committed but they could conceivably; this is in addition to the US workers digging the rare earth (that don’t exists, which is very important, IMO, and everyone is likely aware);
- He doesn’t believe the security guarantees are necessary because russia will not go back in is what he believes;
- 26th minute, Trump says he thinks Zelensky is a great guy and he likes him;
- mention of ceasefire and things start breaking down by Zelensky saying Putin broke his promises, etc;
- Trump said he never broke any ceasefire deal with him, when Zelensky interrupts Trump and says yes, he did, “you were the president”, and says they (Ukraine) will never accept a ceasefire; - This where he really lost Trump for the first time;
- EU is not strong enough guarantee, which is obvious to everyone, I think;
- Zelensky than talks about nonsense about who started the war has to pay, frozen funds not enough, etc (nonsense in the context of the meeting, to be noted);
- Trump says he is in he middle because he wants to see this gets solved; otherwise, they will have to fight it out (ie, only now Trump starts to get on his offensive, getting tired of Zelensky’s irrelevant talk and confrontation);
- Trump says he is very committed to Poland that did a “great job and paid more than they had to, finest group of people he had ever known, they are in tough neighbourhood”; Baltics are in the tough neighbourhood too; America is very committed, but Europe has to step up;
- “We made the deal” Trump says, “I didn’t think we are going to make the deal, but we made the deal”, referring to the rare earths, I am assuming (the deal obviously was not made, but Zelensky was obviously committed or expressed so before the press meeting - otherwise there would be no meeting);
- Trump says the United States should not have allowed this to happen (I believe this is true and thing should have been worked before the invasion by everyone refused to do so, which we and I already discussed here previously);
- Trump started to get really uneasy at about minute 34 when Zelensky said that they (Americans) will feel it when Russia takes Baltics and then Poland (note Trump literally just said that he is committed to Poland and Baltics, very committed, in fact); Zelensky insists that American soldiers will fight for the Baltics et al
- Trump’s next answer (about Odessa) is clearly on the heightened tone now and… Zelensky interrupts him (he is really done at this point, really);
- At 36:30 or so Zelensky suggest that Trump is pushing “Putin’s information”;
- Rubio talks nonsense about free speech rights that Americans should have around the world (in UK in particular) while banning journalists from the white house (AP et al) - doesn’t have much to do with the discussion of this thread, but I thought it was funny;
- At about minute 42 is the beginning of what everyone has probably seen (not aligned with anyone but the United States of America and the world, wants me to say bad things about Putin, things don’t work that way, and so on); and he now goes on his attack against Zelensky (hatred for Putin that hard to deal with, etc), starts waving his hands as he does when he is on the offensive or frustrated (he did not do that didn’t do that prior for the length of 40 minutes);
- JD Vance really chimes in for the first time, addressing the audience and trashing Joe Biden;
- Zelensky loses it at this point completely;
- Shortly after shit hits the fan and we are done;
- Everyone, including Graham, protects Trump and “Merica”;
- From the beginning of the war we have been alone, Zelensky says moments after Vance asked him if he had ever said thanks during this conference;
- Shit keeps flying all over now
- Vance says let’s go litigate the disagreements rather than fight it in front of the American media (note that most of the questions came from the reporters with heavy accent, ie from other parts of the world);
- Trump is really pissed now and not unfairly so;
- Then the “signal” was lost completely and what a, pardon my language, clusterfuck it turned into;
- there are now videos floating around where Zelensky mumbles “suka” (“bitch”) while Vance is ranting; it looks to me that he did say that, but this not him calling Vance (undercover) a “bitch”, but just his frustration and inability to keep himself together, like mumbling “fuck” or something like that in English;
- Graham, the biggest Republican cheerleader for Ukraine thanks Trump and “dumps” Zelensky; so it appears he is done at this time and they will be going on without the US from now on unless things are fixed somehow; I do not think there are many ways to recover from this, unless with someone else, other than Zelensky;

This was not some “set up”, as some suggest, but Zelensky set himself up. He came, as usually (though more restrained than usually), as if everyone owes something to him or Ukraine, confrontational, as always. Very poor form. Trump would not have any of it, though I am surprised he was able to contain himself for so long as well. And he put Zelensky in his place. Sure, he was enabled by other world leaders for three years now, with his behaviour and manner of talking and, likely, genuine, though delusional, belief that he is fighting for the entire world and whatever else. “You gave me HIMARS, tanks, planes, everything I asked for, and you will give me ATACMS and permission to strike, etc, so we are just wasting time” or something along the lines he said some months ago. And similar stuff prior. In real world, things don’t work like this and this is where reality hit him right in the face. I have talked about it numerous times and I amazed that it didn’t happen two plus years ago with someone else. Imagine thinking it was a good idea to say that they were alone since the beginning, while demanding guarantees and Trump insisting that the US gave Ukraine $350B and they wouldn’t exist without the US assistance. This is the full version, if someone is interested:


One more thing I will add. So if the US pulls out… Up to this point, combined aid from the US, UK, EU, other nations mostly with financial aid, was not nearly sufficient to uplift Ukraine from the struggle and gave some kind of advantage. Now, if the US pulls out, having provided roughly half the funds up to this point, do people actually think the rest can pick up the slack and improve Ukrainian position? Math and capabilities do not add up and it isn’t even close. Add the timeline for adjustments and the end is nearer than it was for a very long time. And this is one way or the other.


It's only big because you marked it in bold and increased text size.
I don't think I missed it in my previous post.
I must have missed it then.

ATACMS deliveries for example could be used to inflict serious harm on Russian air assets but so far I'm not familiar with such strikes. Only in occupied areas.
To be fair, there have not been many strikes in a long while now. Do they still have any stock of missiles?

There does not appear to be many restrictions, an if the rest were to be lifted, Ukraine does not have sufficient quantities of missiles to make any difference and there are not enough forthcoming, if any.

Generally speaking of strikes, when was the last one on Crimea? There are no restrictions there at all and plenty of targets to hit. It also seems like their drone attacks into Russia has become a lot less effective lately (or just less attacks?, looks like less effective is more the case), while the opposite seems to be the case for the Russian strikes into Ukraine.

I was referring only to industrial setup. But what exactly do you mean?
Israel’s geographical location and reality demands different approach and spending. None of the countries in Europe face the same circumstances as Israel does. And I say that with full realization of the war raging on in Ukraine.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Israel’s geographical location and reality demands different approach and spending. None of the countries in Europe face the same circumstances as Israel does. And I say that with full realization of the war raging on in Ukraine
I see no connection between geography and security needs, and a choice between low rate long term production and high rate short term production. A case could be made for Israel to switch to the latter, and Europe to switch to the former (though Israel is actually hybrid on that).


I see you put a lot of energy into the Trump-Zelensky meeting recording.
I trust the 4D chess theory, but even then it's uncertain how things unfold. I suggest looking back into this in one month, see how the aid tempo changes if at all.
 

Fredled

Active Member
JD Vance and Trump lost their temper when Zelensky said that diplomacy with Russia was not going to work. And, IMO, it's true. Zelensky was right to say that on the same morning, Putin fired ballistic missiles at Ukraine. That's exactly what Trump doesn't want to hear.Trump wants this peace agreement at any price, including accepting most of Putin's demands. But Putin won't win that thanks to diplomacy but thanks to the war he launched. By doing this, Trump promotes the benefits of war, not peace, as he thinks. It's a great thing to want peace. But Trump lives in a parallel world where he wears a superman suit. The reality is that Putin already celebrates his victory, And if Putin's victory does materialize, he will restart the war a few years later.
After the all the obstination and the total lack of value for human lives Putin has been able to show to take parts of Ukraine, one should be crazy to think that he will stop because he signed a deal.

The second thing which is disturbing is that Trump doesn't respect the UN Charter about the sovereignty of the nations and the respect of international borders. It's ok for him to annex Canada and buy Groenland. No wonder he doesn't care if Russia annexes 20% of Ukraine.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
It is clearly bias and one sided talking diplomacy with Putin will not work, when Minks 2 Accord being violated more by Ukrainian side. The reality both sides contribute to break down of diplomacy. Charging only one side is breaking down diplomacy and then call them untrustworthy, just another excuse to continue the war.

Question now simply can Euro zone continue the war without US, as more and more signals from US Trump that they will not support the longer war. If Euro want to continue the war until last Ukrainian or last Russian, then shown the money and equipment to compensate US supply sides. Just that simple.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
A few things from yesterday shit show:

Trump keeps repeating rare earths and pronounces it really weird (is it rare or raw? Or whatever he says);
- 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 die every week on both sides: is it just numbers he made up or do they mean anything?
- Zelensky says they now have LNG terminals in Ukraine - as far as I am aware, they do not;
- The question to Zelensky from the reporter “Do you think President Trump is on your side” is dumb and provocative;
- Zelensky’s answer is just as dumb and provocative, ie “make Putin withdraw from our land”;
- Zelensky was frustrated from the very beginning and through out; body language showed just as much; looked completely unprepared for the “meet the press” and the shit show; big mistake and should not have been overlooked by the handlers;
- Trump said he is not looking forward to sending arms but to peace, yet - yes, he would send weapons, but hopefully not very much because he thinks they can get to peace quickly;
He also said that he doesn’t want to talk about security guarantees because he wants to get the deal done first; security is then easy; the US hasn’t committed but they could conceivably; this is in addition to the US workers digging the rare earth (that don’t exists, which is very important, IMO, and everyone is likely aware);
- He doesn’t believe the security guarantees are necessary because russia will not go back in is what he believes;
- 26th minute, Trump says he thinks Zelensky is a great guy and he likes him;
- mention of ceasefire and things start breaking down by Zelensky saying Putin broke his promises, etc;
- Trump said he never broke any ceasefire deal with him, when Zelensky interrupts Trump and says yes, he did, “you were the president”, and says they (Ukraine) will never accept a ceasefire; - This where he really lost Trump for the first time;
- EU is not strong enough guarantee, which is obvious to everyone, I think;
- Zelensky than talks about nonsense about who started the war has to pay, frozen funds not enough, etc (nonsense in the context of the meeting, to be noted);
- Trump says he is in he middle because he wants to see this gets solved; otherwise, they will have to fight it out (ie, only now Trump starts to get on his offensive, getting tired of Zelensky’s irrelevant talk and confrontation);
- Trump says he is very committed to Poland that did a “great job and paid more than they had to, finest group of people he had ever known, they are in tough neighbourhood”; Baltics are in the tough neighbourhood too; America is very committed, but Europe has to step up;
- “We made the deal” Trump says, “I didn’t think we are going to make the deal, but we made the deal”, referring to the rare earths, I am assuming (the deal obviously was not made, but Zelensky was obviously committed or expressed so before the press meeting - otherwise there would be no meeting);
- Trump says the United States should not have allowed this to happen (I believe this is true and thing should have been worked before the invasion by everyone refused to do so, which we and I already discussed here previously);
- Trump started to get really uneasy at about minute 34 when Zelensky said that they (Americans) will feel it when Russia takes Baltics and then Poland (note Trump literally just said that he is committed to Poland and Baltics, very committed, in fact); Zelensky insists that American soldiers will fight for the Baltics et al
- Trump’s next answer (about Odessa) is clearly on the heightened tone now and… Zelensky interrupts him (he is really done at this point, really);
- At 36:30 or so Zelensky suggest that Trump is pushing “Putin’s information”;
- Rubio talks nonsense about free speech rights that Americans should have around the world (in UK in particular) while banning journalists from the white house (AP et al) - doesn’t have much to do with the discussion of this thread, but I thought it was funny;
- At about minute 42 is the beginning of what everyone has probably seen (not aligned with anyone but the United States of America and the world, wants me to say bad things about Putin, things don’t work that way, and so on); and he now goes on his attack against Zelensky (hatred for Putin that hard to deal with, etc), starts waving his hands as he does when he is on the offensive or frustrated (he did not do that didn’t do that prior for the length of 40 minutes);
- JD Vance really chimes in for the first time, addressing the audience and trashing Joe Biden;
- Zelensky loses it at this point completely;
- Shortly after shit hits the fan and we are done;
- Everyone, including Graham, protects Trump and “Merica”;
- From the beginning of the war we have been alone, Zelensky says moments after Vance asked him if he had ever said thanks during this conference;
- Shit keeps flying all over now
- Vance says let’s go litigate the disagreements rather than fight it in front of the American media (note that most of the questions came from the reporters with heavy accent, ie from other parts of the world);
- Trump is really pissed now and not unfairly so;
- Then the “signal” was lost completely and what a, pardon my language, clusterfuck it turned into;
- there are now videos floating around where Zelensky mumbles “suka” (“bitch”) while Vance is ranting; it looks to me that he did say that, but this not him calling Vance (undercover) a “bitch”, but just his frustration and inability to keep himself together, like mumbling “fuck” or something like that in English;
- Graham, the biggest Republican cheerleader for Ukraine thanks Trump and “dumps” Zelensky; so it appears he is done at this time and they will be going on without the US from now on unless things are fixed somehow; I do not think there are many ways to recover from this, unless with someone else, other than Zelensky;

This was not some “set up”, as some suggest, but Zelensky set himself up. He came, as usually (though more restrained than usually), as if everyone owes something to him or Ukraine, confrontational, as always. Very poor form. Trump would not have any of it, though I am surprised he was able to contain himself for so long as well. And he put Zelensky in his place. Sure, he was enabled by other world leaders for three years now, with his behaviour and manner of talking and, likely, genuine, though delusional, belief that he is fighting for the entire world and whatever else. “You gave me HIMARS, tanks, planes, everything I asked for, and you will give me ATACMS and permission to strike, etc, so we are just wasting time” or something along the lines he said some months ago. And similar stuff prior. In real world, things don’t work like this and this is where reality hit him right in the face. I have talked about it numerous times and I amazed that it didn’t happen two plus years ago with someone else. Imagine thinking it was a good idea to say that they were alone since the beginning, while demanding guarantees and Trump insisting that the US gave Ukraine $350B and they wouldn’t exist without the US assistance. This is the full version, if someone is interested:


One more thing I will add. So if the US pulls out… Up to this point, combined aid from the US, UK, EU, other nations mostly with financial aid, was not nearly sufficient to uplift Ukraine from the struggle and gave some kind of advantage. Now, if the US pulls out, having provided roughly half the funds up to this point, do people actually think the rest can pick up the slack and improve Ukrainian position? Math and capabilities do not add up and it isn’t even close. Add the timeline for adjustments and the end is nearer than it was for a very long time. And this is one way or the other.



I must have missed it then.


To be fair, there have not been many strikes in a long while now. Do they still have any stock of missiles?

There does not appear to be many restrictions, an if the rest were to be lifted, Ukraine does not have sufficient quantities of missiles to make any difference and there are not enough forthcoming, if any.

Generally speaking of strikes, when was the last one on Crimea? There are no restrictions there at all and plenty of targets to hit. It also seems like their drone attacks into Russia has become a lot less effective lately (or just less attacks?, looks like less effective is more the case), while the opposite seems to be the case for the Russian strikes into Ukraine.


Israel’s geographical location and reality demands different approach and spending. None of the countries in Europe face the same circumstances as Israel does. And I say that with full realization of the war raging on in Ukraine.
Recent posting drone attack on Crimea
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
This has been known for 3 years. And not only the US.
Most equipment going into Ukraine no matter the source, is old equipment drawn from reserves or due for replacement.
When you hear of some $5 billion aid program, $5 billion is what it costs to replace that equipment with something new. Not how much the old equipment is worth. Hence $20 million Leopard 1s.
or even equipment that was donated saving money on decommissioning ,Was fixing up the various supply chains then claiming it as aid to Ukraine real?
 

Vanquish

Member

Here is a transcript of the meeting that everyone is interested in. I'm sure most have seen something similar already. When I watch the videos and read the transcript it seems clear to me that Zelenskyy was ambushed by Vance and Trump. We know there is no love lost between Trump and Zelenskyy. Trump recently called Zelenskyy a dictator. Then there is the fact that Trump got impeached for trying to extort Zelenskyy so there's history. I have to wonder why sensitive negotiations were being hashed out in front of the media. Was the media in the room when the US and Russia were working on their backroom deals, without any European countries present? Why was Tass allowed in the oval office when AP and Reuters were banned? There's lots to digest here in regards to Trumps America. It's clear to me the US is going their own way from now on and not relying on allies which is their right of course. Perhaps the next time though when the US is trolling for a coalition of the willing they may well have to go it alone.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Charging only one side is breaking down diplomacy
Actually there is only one side to be blamed for the war and it's Russia.

Breaching the Minsk Agreement is the fake reason Russia is repeating endlessly to justify their agression. Nobody buys that any more. The size and violence of the Russian agression can't be justified by a few breaches of the Minsk Agreement, especially when the Russians also breached it.
KipPotapych said:
One more thing I will add. So if the US pulls out… Up to this point, combined aid from the US, UK, EU, other nations mostly with financial aid, was not nearly sufficient to uplift Ukraine from the struggle and gave some kind of advantage. Now, if the US pulls out, having provided roughly half the funds up to this point, do people actually think the rest can pick up the slack and improve Ukrainian position? Math and capabilities do not add up and it isn’t even close.
Zelensky is an utter disaster in diplomacy. He has been caught lying and exaggerating numerous times. Gave the impression that he thinks that everyone owes something to Ukraine just because Ukraine is at war. Etc.

However, yesterday, he dared tell Donald Trump the truth. This time he wasn't lying. And Trump and JD were offended that this little Ukrainian president dared to contradict them. This was bad diplomatically, but very good morally because he taught Trump a lesson. In the aftermath, Zelensky gained huge support from other Ukrainian backers like Australia, the UK, and of course Europe who start to be fed up with Trump non sens.
He also get big support among the Ukrainian population. And big support from US politicians who called Trump's behaviour "a disgrace".

So far, the US hasn't stopped weapon deliveries to Ukraine. Trump even said that he will keep on sending weapons to Ukraine. Maybe in less quantities. But more importantly, Trump doesn't like to say that in public. He would like to say that he won't, that he wants to be neutral in roder to broker a peace deal. He wants Putin to believe that he is not supporting Ukraine anymore. The fact is that he didn't decide to stop deliveries.

When or if he does, it won't mean the end of Ukraine. Ukraine was producing 1/3 of their military needs domestically in 2024. They project to produce 1/2 of their need in 2025. Assuming they produce 1/3, that another 1/3 is provided by Europe, their weapons and ammunitions will be reduced by 1/3 if the US doesn't send anything anymore. It will be difficult, but not the end.

KipPotapych said:
Generally speaking of strikes, when was the last one on Crimea? There are no restrictions there at all and plenty of targets to hit. It also seems like their drone attacks into Russia has become a lot less effective lately (or just less attacks?, looks like less effective is more the case), while the opposite seems to be the case for the Russian strikes into Ukraine.
I disagree. Ukraine made less strikes on Crimea because Crimea has become less important strategically and they focused more on the Russian territory. They made countless strikes on refineries since the beginning of 2025. It's difficult to assess the damage but this doesn't mean that there are none.

They didn't use ATACMS on Russia because they preferred to use them on Ukrainian territory despite the lifting of the restriction because they don't want to show that Americans are responsible for strikes on Russia. They don't have enough ATACMS to strike targets inside and outside Ukraine, so they rather use them inside. And finally ATACMS hasn't been as effective as hoped. Russians can intercept them when enough modern air defence is deployed.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Actually there is only one side to be blamed for the war and it's Russia.

Breaching the Minsk Agreement is the fake reason Russia is repeating endlessly to justify their agression. Nobody buys that any more.
Nobody ? That's more wishy-washy from one side. The way that most of Global South still trade, talk and interact with Russia shown that the claim of Nobody buys Russian pov is just another one sided wishy-washy. Minsk agreement is big factor on the invasion, and tell that otherwise again just one sided opinion.

Either way,if Euro zone want to continue the war then show that with real commitment to take over US portion in this war supplies. Ranting how unfair US Trump trear Zelensky and later on Euro zone, well it is only just ranting that give you nowhere.


Even the Liberal Democrats lover NYT say it Will stop soon. So it is up to Euro to continue supplying the war, if they want.

Yes, at least in part. Drawdown equipment is still being shipped. The Trump administration could direct that shipments cease despite announcements by the previous administration. More difficult would be stopping shipments of newly produced weapons from contracts Ukraine signed with the defense industry, though with funds provided by the United States. Legally, those belong to Ukraine. However, the Trump administration may be able to divert deliveries to U.S. forces using Title I of the Defense Production Act or other emergency authorities, citing national requirements. Although that claim would be a stretch, the Trump administration has not hesitated to use emergency authorities for its political goals
.

From CSIS assessment

What Trump still send are the ones that already disburse and commited. The rest in pipeline can be stop immediately. That's from CSIS assessment, the one that ussualy very pro Ukraine and bleeding Russian strategies .

Again continue the war supplies now up to Euro zone supplies and tax payers money. Ranting on Trump will not matter much now. Trump will either got what he wants from Ukraine or left them to Euro to take care. By that time Ukraine either survive or doomed in the hand of Euro zone.
 
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Bob53

Well-Known Member
This is not a representative graph. It only shows local monetary value of donations, but it fails to deduct Europe's energy imports from the total. Which if adjusted to PPP differences between Europe and Russia, would certainly put Europe in the negative.

Factors that negate Europe's aid:
  1. Russian PPP is much higher due to lower labor costs, access to local natural resources.
  2. European aid is calculated in monetary value to Europe, not Ukraine. That Leopard 1 costs $20-30 million to replace with a Leopard 2A8, but a Leopard 1 isn't worth $20-30 million to Ukraine.
  3. European war materiel production costs are the world's highest due to bad defense-MIC synergy and decades long disarmament.
This is also how the Americans valued their obsolete equipment. M113s were valued at $10 million despite being 50 years old. Australia did the same.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
This article suggests much of the money spent on aid to Ukraine is really replenishing older U.S stocks and improving its manufacturing capability and capacity certainly handy to have if the Pacific arena has a war start
That is correct as far as I am aware around 50c in the dollar is spent in the USA and over. 25 c in ten dollar was in over valuation of old equipment that was paid fir between 20 and 50 years ago. Even money to increase artillery shell production infrastructure in the US was touted as aid to Ukraine.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
That is correct as far as I am aware around 50c in the dollar is spent in the USA and over. 25 c in ten dollar was in over valuation of old equipment that was paid fir between 20 and 50 years ago. Even money to increase artillery shell production infrastructure in the US was touted as aid to Ukraine. The valuations for aid are pretty much like this …..
 
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Bob53

Well-Known Member
A few things from yesterday shit show:

Trump keeps repeating rare earths and pronounces it really weird (is it rare or raw? Or whatever he says);
- 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 die every week on both sides: is it just numbers he made up or do they mean anything?
- Zelensky says they now have LNG terminals in Ukraine - as far as I am aware, they do not;
- The question to Zelensky from the reporter “Do you think President Trump is on your side” is dumb and provocative;
- Zelensky’s answer is just as dumb and provocative, ie “make Putin withdraw from our land”;
- Zelensky was frustrated from the very beginning and through out; body language showed just as much; looked completely unprepared for the “meet the press” and the shit show; big mistake and should not have been overlooked by the handlers;
- Trump said he is not looking forward to sending arms but to peace, yet - yes, he would send weapons, but hopefully not very much because he thinks they can get to peace quickly;
He also said that he doesn’t want to talk about security guarantees because he wants to get the deal done first; security is then easy; the US hasn’t committed but they could conceivably; this is in addition to the US workers digging the rare earth (that don’t exists, which is very important, IMO, and everyone is likely aware);
- He doesn’t believe the security guarantees are necessary because russia will not go back in is what he believes;
- 26th minute, Trump says he thinks Zelensky is a great guy and he likes him;
- mention of ceasefire and things start breaking down by Zelensky saying Putin broke his promises, etc;
- Trump said he never broke any ceasefire deal with him, when Zelensky interrupts Trump and says yes, he did, “you were the president”, and says they (Ukraine) will never accept a ceasefire; - This where he really lost Trump for the first time;
- EU is not strong enough guarantee, which is obvious to everyone, I think;
- Zelensky than talks about nonsense about who started the war has to pay, frozen funds not enough, etc (nonsense in the context of the meeting, to be noted);
- Trump says he is in he middle because he wants to see this gets solved; otherwise, they will have to fight it out (ie, only now Trump starts to get on his offensive, getting tired of Zelensky’s irrelevant talk and confrontation);
- Trump says he is very committed to Poland that did a “great job and paid more than they had to, finest group of people he had ever known, they are in tough neighbourhood”; Baltics are in the tough neighbourhood too; America is very committed, but Europe has to step up;
- “We made the deal” Trump says, “I didn’t think we are going to make the deal, but we made the deal”, referring to the rare earths, I am assuming (the deal obviously was not made, but Zelensky was obviously committed or expressed so before the press meeting - otherwise there would be no meeting);
- Trump says the United States should not have allowed this to happen (I believe this is true and thing should have been worked before the invasion by everyone refused to do so, which we and I already discussed here previously);
- Trump started to get really uneasy at about minute 34 when Zelensky said that they (Americans) will feel it when Russia takes Baltics and then Poland (note Trump literally just said that he is committed to Poland and Baltics, very committed, in fact); Zelensky insists that American soldiers will fight for the Baltics et al
- Trump’s next answer (about Odessa) is clearly on the heightened tone now and… Zelensky interrupts him (he is really done at this point, really);
- At 36:30 or so Zelensky suggest that Trump is pushing “Putin’s information”;
- Rubio talks nonsense about free speech rights that Americans should have around the world (in UK in particular) while banning journalists from the white house (AP et al) - doesn’t have much to do with the discussion of this thread, but I thought it was funny;
- At about minute 42 is the beginning of what everyone has probably seen (not aligned with anyone but the United States of America and the world, wants me to say bad things about Putin, things don’t work that way, and so on); and he now goes on his attack against Zelensky (hatred for Putin that hard to deal with, etc), starts waving his hands as he does when he is on the offensive or frustrated (he did not do that didn’t do that prior for the length of 40 minutes);
- JD Vance really chimes in for the first time, addressing the audience and trashing Joe Biden;
- Zelensky loses it at this point completely;
- Shortly after shit hits the fan and we are done;
- Everyone, including Graham, protects Trump and “Merica”;
- From the beginning of the war we have been alone, Zelensky says moments after Vance asked him if he had ever said thanks during this conference;
- Shit keeps flying all over now
- Vance says let’s go litigate the disagreements rather than fight it in front of the American media (note that most of the questions came from the reporters with heavy accent, ie from other parts of the world);
- Trump is really pissed now and not unfairly so;
- Then the “signal” was lost completely and what a, pardon my language, clusterfuck it turned into;
- there are now videos floating around where Zelensky mumbles “suka” (“bitch”) while Vance is ranting; it looks to me that he did say that, but this not him calling Vance (undercover) a “bitch”, but just his frustration and inability to keep himself together, like mumbling “fuck” or something like that in English;
- Graham, the biggest Republican cheerleader for Ukraine thanks Trump and “dumps” Zelensky; so it appears he is done at this time and they will be going on without the US from now on unless things are fixed somehow; I do not think there are many ways to recover from this, unless with someone else, other than Zelensky;

This was not some “set up”, as some suggest, but Zelensky set himself up. He came, as usually (though more restrained than usually), as if everyone owes something to him or Ukraine, confrontational, as always. Very poor form. Trump would not have any of it, though I am surprised he was able to contain himself for so long as well. And he put Zelensky in his place. Sure, he was enabled by other world leaders for three years now, with his behaviour and manner of talking and, likely, genuine, though delusional, belief that he is fighting for the entire world and whatever else. “You gave me HIMARS, tanks, planes, everything I asked for, and you will give me ATACMS and permission to strike, etc, so we are just wasting time” or something along the lines he said some months ago. And similar stuff prior. In real world, things don’t work like this and this is where reality hit him right in the face. I have talked about it numerous times and I amazed that it didn’t happen two plus years ago with someone else. Imagine thinking it was a good idea to say that they were alone since the beginning, while demanding guarantees and Trump insisting that the US gave Ukraine $350B and they wouldn’t exist without the US assistance. This is the full version, if someone is interested:


One more thing I will add. So if the US pulls out… Up to this point, combined aid from the US, UK, EU, other nations mostly with financial aid, was not nearly sufficient to uplift Ukraine from the struggle and gave some kind of advantage. Now, if the US pulls out, having provided roughly half the funds up to this point, do people actually think the rest can pick up the slack and improve Ukrainian position? Math and capabilities do not add up and it isn’t even close. Add the timeline for adjustments and the end is nearer than it was for a very long time. And this is one way or the other.



I must have missed it then.


To be fair, there have not been many strikes in a long while now. Do they still have any stock of missiles?

There does not appear to be many restrictions, an if the rest were to be lifted, Ukraine does not have sufficient quantities of missiles to make any difference and there are not enough forthcoming, if any.

Generally speaking of strikes, when was the last one on Crimea? There are no restrictions there at all and plenty of targets to hit. It also seems like their drone attacks into Russia has become a lot less effective lately (or just less attacks?, looks like less effective is more the case), while the opposite seems to be the case for the Russian strikes into Ukraine.


Israel’s geographical location and reality demands different approach and spending. None of the countries in Europe face the same circumstances as Israel does. And I say that with full realization of the war raging on in Ukraine.
Nice sum up. What is boils down to is that based on past experience Ukraine won’t trust Russia to hold any ceasefire, Russia will not cede any gains in return for a ceasefire or peace, and Ukraine will not agree to Russian request to demobilise their military. I don’t think those Ukrainian positions are unreasonable. It would be like trusting the Mexican fentanyl cartels to manage the border crossings in Texas.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member

Here is a transcript of the meeting that everyone is interested in. I'm sure most have seen something similar already. When I watch the videos and read the transcript it seems clear to me that Zelenskyy was ambushed by Vance and Trump. We know there is no love lost between Trump and Zelenskyy. Trump recently called Zelenskyy a dictator. Then there is the fact that Trump got impeached for trying to extort Zelenskyy so there's history. I have to wonder why sensitive negotiations were being hashed out in front of the media. Was the media in the room when the US and Russia were working on their backroom deals, without any European countries present? Why was Tass allowed in the oval office when AP and Reuters were banned? There's lots to digest here in regards to Trumps America. It's clear to me the US is going their own way from now on and not relying on allies which is their right of course. Perhaps the next time though when the US is trolling for a coalition of the willing they may well have to go it alone.
Very good point that the Russian meeting was held in private but this one on TV….
 
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