The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[koxinga]

Zelensky doesn't drag this on. Putin does. Zelensky and the Ukrainian army is only trying to stop the Russian invasion of their country. Zlelensky has no possibility to stop the war unless he capitulates. Putin on the other hand, can stop the war tomorrow if he wanted.

Putin will stop this war only if you can make/force him to. He is not going to wake up one morning and says "let's end this". It is either a decisive Ukrainian battlefield victory, or Ukraine outlasting Russia in a war of attrition/ causing economic collapse and some kind of internal coup happens (e.g Russian Revolution). Neither is likely at this point.

Ukraine might feel aggrieved that as a victim, it has to compromise, potentially giving up terrorities to Russia, the aggressor, which effectively rewards the aggressor action but that is unfortunately, the reality today (keep fighting but neither Russia or Ukraine has to capacity to truly win)

 

[Bob53]

The political theatre of the Trump administration of the last few days is quite concerning. The flip from somewhat balanced proclamations to a hard anti-Zelenski is sudden and dramatic (even for Trump). I cannot fathom what the (apparent) shift to Putins point of view could gain us.

There is no point in getting upset until we actually hear something real being proposed.

It will mean the

If the rare earth minerals don't exist then Ukraine should absolutely sell them to The Donald immediately, while we are at it I'm sure we have a few more London bridges that he could buy ....

thats what I was thinking. Clearly specify the minerals that don’t exist or have low quantities and say yes you get 50% of those minerals.

 

[T.C.P]

What will be the biggest impact of US military and starlink shut down in Ukraine?

Starlink-

Of the top of my head, the first thing that comes to mind are the suicide boats, that are trappingt he Russian Black sea fleet. I think they rely heavily on STarlink.

The Heavy night bomber drones used by Ukraine to take out Russian vehicles and armour behind ebemy lines are also built with skylink terminals

These 2 things alone take away a lot fo Ukrainain offensive potential

US weapons-

Interceptors- Unless EU can really bolster production of SAMP-Ts and IRISTs, we cna expect more Russian long range strike into Western Ukraine.

Franken Sams/GraveHawks are only useful against Shaheds. Anything more complicated like Kalibres, Kh-29/31s, KH-101s, Iskanders, S-300 ground mode, requiresmore complex interceptors. I dont know if Ukriane has much stock of legacy interceptors left.

Artillery- I look at a lot of Pro Ukr sources and they love the M-777.Many of them prefer them to SPHs, as they are moe survivable in the drone filled combat space. If US stops supplies, can Europe replace US supply of towed arty?

IFVs/APCs/MRAPs- If no more US supplied Bradleys, Strykers, Humvees, Oskhosh, MTLBs are goign to show up, does the EU have the stock to keep up the supply? The sheer number of vehicles Ukraine lost in Kursk just to Fibre optic FPVs alone is staggering.


Potential Solutions-

Turkey has been consistent inbeing very Pro Ukraine and are more than willing to sell to Ukraine. EU needs to buy up as many as Kobras, Kirpis, as possible to prepare for the disappearance of US vehicle supply.

I wonder if Germany/Italy can promise refurbs or leo-2s to Turkey in exchange of immediate transfer of older upgraded Turkish Leos and M-48s.

EU should alos use their intelligence services to buy up as much ammunition, and soviet vehicles not detroyed by Israel in Syria. Their new govt is cash strapped and have little love for Russia and would probably be willing to sell to Europe.

 

[koxinga]

This describes the scenario for a "least worst deal" in three points

(1) No further territorial concessions beyond Crimea and the four provinces of Donbas.
(2) Credible security guarantee that prevents Putin from simply rearming and restarting the war
(3) Provision for continued military assistance from the US and Europe.

While all three points are reasonable, if we assume that Putin's Russia is a bad faith actor/untrustworthy, the key condition should be consequences for breaking any condition.

That removes the point about whether Putin can be trusted, because consequences have to be real and painful. A carrot only deal to end the war merely defers the conflict and reinforces the idea that war is viable.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-21/ukraine-can-survive-with-the-least-worst-peace-deal

 

[Feanor]

China will process the rare earths mined in Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia for their own benefit, giving China a even more overwhelming global leadership in these strategic resources.

Process the rare earths that don't exist?

At the very best, the US will have access to a very small percentage of rare earth resources in the part of Ukraine under their control after an agreement between Trump and Putin/Xi to partition Ukraine. Ukraine will be divided between territories annexed to Russia and a buffer zone where american will be allowed to be.

More likely the US won't be present in a buffer zone, but will be far away from the new border. If their purpose is guarding resources, they will likely do that and little more.

Trump is able to lure investors from Russia, and perhaps he tries to play the guys in the Kremlin too. But he is not doing such complex machination.
+ I don't know what Russia is able to offer or willing to offer the US in such deal. It should be something substantial that Russia precisely doesn't want to give to the US.

This is what has me wondering as well, what could be worth these kinds of concessions?

 

[Ananda]

Put Elon Podcasts on China and Ukraine. I don't want to dwell on Elon opinion which off course will be divisive, but what Elon increasingly represents. Elon represents unofficial hints toward what Trump administration moves.

I move to near end of this Podcasts and quote: "China with its neutral stance will have better possition to bring lasting peace". So China involvement in ending Ukraine war, giving them deals as part of it, it's not something that unthinkable. Russia clearly close to China now, Ukraine want to reach out to China and seems unofficial US now give hints open on China involvement. Perhaps this is part of Trump moves that want to make new security deals with Putin and Xi.

Thus which will be left behind? (at least present momentum shown), it will be EU. Trump already says he will reach our to Individuals Euro administration that willing to follow him, but he will by pass EU.

Add:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-expects-ukraine-sign-critical-minerals-deal-soon-2025-02-21/

Perhaps because potential deal with Ukraine, now Trump saying Putin did invade but they (means Biden, EU and Zelensky) should not let him to invade. So soften bit on Zelensky, but direction seems the same. Personally it is again shown how Trump treat International Diplomacy as like dealing on business transactions.

 

[rsemmes]

...economic collapse and some kind of internal coup.
...neither Russia or Ukraine has to capacity to truly win.

This describes the scenario for a "least worst deal" in three points
(1) No further territorial concessions beyond Crimea and the four provinces of Donbas.
(2) Credible security guarantee that prevents Putin from simply rearming and restarting the war
(3) Provision for continued military assistance from the US and Europe.
While all three points are reasonable, if we assume that Putin's Russia is a bad faith actor/untrustworthy, the key condition should be consequences for breaking any condition.
That removes the point about whether Putin can be trusted, because consequences have to be real and painful. A carrot only deal to end the war merely defers the conflict and reinforces the idea that war is viable.

Zelenski can, and could, get up and start negotiating to end the war. He actually did that.
I wonder is Ukraine is not closer to that collapse; however unlikely.
I think Russia has that capacity (and cannot use it in this situation), Ukraine hasn't.

1/ I am not so sure about those 4 provinces. Can Russia deport tens of thousands of people to those provinces? How many friendly Russian speakers are there? How many will remain? A strong starting position at the beginning of negotiations looks like a good idea.
2/ Yes, that is the all important point. Do we remember Croatia after the Balkans war? Will NATO defend Russia if a rearmed Ukraine, in a different political situation, invades Russia? (Yes, extremely unlikely. Border conflict with China in 10 years?)
3/ Granted. That is a business opportunity.

Yes, good question. What is the stick? Who is going to apply the stick? Also against Ukraine?
Why do we take for granted that Russia is going to invade another country right away? Are there more Minsk Accords pending? Politics by other means works, we already know that.

 

[rsemmes]

Now...

Piatijatki, is that a coup de main, a big one or the always overoptimistic Kalibrated?

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

A new active front by the Dnieper?

 

[Feanor]

Now...

Piatijatki, is that a coup de main, a big one or the always overoptimistic Kalibrated?

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

A new active front by the Dnieper?

Completely insignificant so far. Suriyakmaps also reported movement in that area but it was a couple of days ago.

 

[Fredled]

Process the rare earths that don't exist?

Yes. That's the most crazy part. Nobody has made an audit of Ukraine's mineral resources, yet Trump wants $500B of them.

All of this, along his various comments, is so ridiculous that it's not going anywhere. Congressmen in the US, Republican and domocrats, are starting to react. If something has to be aproved by the Congress, it won't pass.
Trump will also slowly understand that he went too far.
________________

South West of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian attacked Russian positions and took over an industrial building. They stayed there for two days, inside the Russian lines. They Russians dropped an incendiary bomb on the building and Ukrainians had to retreat to another, smaller building next door. A few hours later two IFVs came to evacuate them.

 

[koxinga]

Yes. That's the most crazy part. Nobody has made an audit of Ukraine's mineral resources, yet Trump wants $500B of them.

It is his negotiating tactic (a.k.a make crazy demands and claims) and using media pressure. Crude but effective, especially in a normally staid diplomatic environment where people choose their words carefully and couch it with various caveats and maybes.

Trying to disprove/understand those claims or statements is a waste of time and effort; you need to look beyond the wild claims to see what he is willing to settle for and from all signs, a deal of some sort might be signed.

 

[Ananda]

Understanding Trump tactics, just look on how he is doing his business, how he's doing advertising on his business ventures, how he's claiming extravagance values of his real estate or other ventures. After looking that, and see how's he is doing all political statement and pressure as POTUS (whether first term or now).

He's doing politics as his businesses with extravagance claims, that's why many market analysts especially those who has experience or exposure assessing Trump Companies, usually say he's not doing this as President of US. He's not doing the tactics as most politicians as others POTUS do, he's doing it as CEO of US Enterprise. Seems many Americans like him cause he behave as CEO and not usual Politicians.

Add:

Just an example, even in his younger years. Push above line first then make deals more his liking and acceptances.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Turkey has been consistent inbeing very Pro Ukraine and are more than willing to sell to Ukraine. EU needs to buy up as many as Kobras, Kirpis, as possible to prepare for the disappearance of US vehicle supply.

Turkey is not pro-Ukraine, and promoting it to the status of a strategic partner on Ukraine is something that will surely blow up in their faces sooner or later.
Turkish foreign policy is 2 faceted:

1. Play every side.
2. Regional dominance.

If it becomes beneficial for Turkey to partner with Russia for its middle eastern projects, then it will simultaneously support both Ukraine and Russia, or Russia alone.
Or are we forgetting that Turkey willingly left the F-35 project and severely downgraded its ties with the US to facilitate defense trade with Russia, AFTER Russia invaded Ukraine?

For a long time, the EU has been isolationist, happily accepting an American defense umbrella, but hostile to other major allies such as Israel and Taiwan. In 2025 this means that the EU can only really recruit South Korea as a foreign supplier, but only because South Korea is willing to sell anything to everyone, no strings attached (except of course those directly hostile to it). This is a double edged sword, because the same tech could be in the hands of nations hostile to Europe.
Even then, a lot of the foreign or even locally made equipment European countries can acquire, include some American components. So Europe cannot afford to become hostile to the US.

 

[koxinga]

Turkey is not pro-Ukraine, and promoting it to the status of a strategic partner on Ukraine is something that will surely blow up in their faces sooner or later.
<snip for brevity>

What Turkiye does is reasonable. The only side that matters is your own side. It does not mean that nation states are completely amoral as most try to keep within some international norms or within the extent of the capabilities to exert influence.

E.g Singapore/South Korea can express solidarity with Ukraine and support international sanctions, but it would far-fetched to expect a label "pro-Ukraine"

For a long time, the EU has been isolationist, happily accepting an American defense umbrella, but hostile to other major allies such as Israel and Taiwan. In 2025 this means that the EU can only really recruit South Korea as a foreign supplier, but only because South Korea is willing to sell anything to everyone, no strings attached (except of course those directly hostile to it). This is a double edged sword, because the same tech could be in the hands of nations hostile to Europe.
Even then, a lot of the foreign or even locally made equipment European countries can acquire, include some American components. So Europe cannot afford to become hostile to the US.

Hostile might be too strong but EU is doing is similar to my other example is doing. They can express solidarity on principles of freedom of navigation of SCS/Taiwan Straits, send the occasional taskforce/frigate to do FONOPs, but no one here is counting of EU in any kinetic conflict.

Likewise, Korean weapons sales should be seen as purely business transaction, not some weird sign that they are on your side fighting Putin.

 

[T.C.P]

Turkey is not pro-Ukraine, and promoting it to the status of a strategic partner on Ukraine is something that will surely blow up in their faces sooner or later.
Turkish foreign policy is 2 faceted:

1. Play every side.
2. Regional dominance.

If it becomes beneficial for Turkey to partner with Russia for its middle eastern projects, then it will simultaneously support both Ukraine and Russia, or Russia alone.
Or are we forgetting that Turkey willingly left the F-35 project and severely downgraded its ties with the US to facilitate defense trade with Russia, AFTER Russia invaded Ukraine?

For a long time, the EU has been isolationist, happily accepting an American defense umbrella, but hostile to other major allies such as Israel and Taiwan. In 2025 this means that the EU can only really recruit South Korea as a foreign supplier, but only because South Korea is willing to sell anything to everyone, no strings attached (except of course those directly hostile to it). This is a double edged sword, because the same tech could be in the hands of nations hostile to Europe.
Even then, a lot of the foreign or even locally made equipment European countries can acquire, include some American components. So Europe cannot afford to become hostile to the US.

Turkey has been far more consistent about Ukrainian territorial integrity than even the EU. They have consistently asserted that Crimea is Ukranian

Turkey has been fighting Russian proxies in Libya and Syria wiht their own proxies and winning so far.

One thing we can expect Turkey to do is to always act in their own interest. Supporting Ukraine against Russia in the Ukrainian threatre is in Turkish interest.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

What Turkiye does is reasonable. The only side that matters is your own side. It does not mean that nation states are completely amoral as most try to keep within some international norms or within the extent of the capabilities to exert influence.

E.g Singapore/South Korea can express solidarity with Ukraine and support international sanctions, but it would far-fetched to expect a label "pro-Ukraine"

My point was not one of morality, but of changing interests. Turkey does not inherently have the interests of NATO and the EU at heart. Its own interests often conflict with it. Including its current attempts to position itself as Iran's successor.
To choose an arms supplier, one must understand that said supplier will be reliable throughout the lifetime of whatever you acquired.

This leaves EU only with the ability to import less sophisticated items from Turkey, which coincidentally is not what the EU is in shortage of.

The idea of sending Ukraine 50 year old tanks and other equipment is also outdated. Maybe in the early days when the west was in an "all we can find and spare" mode, but 3 years later we can definitely afford to send brand new MBTs equipped with APS.
If little 10 million Israel can make 30 brand new MBTs a year in peace time, 450 million EU can make over 1,000 easily, or over double that in war time. The manufacturing capacity exists.

Hostile might be too strong but EU is doing is similar to my other example is doing.

They literally imposed arms embargos and sanctions on Israel due to a war against Iran - Russia's key foreign supplier for a war on Europe.

Likewise, Korean weapons sales should be seen as purely business transaction, not some weird sign that they are on your side fighting Putin.

You're missing the point. When you buy a light armored 4x4, you don't care where it comes from. Worst case you make one of your own.
But when you buy a sophisticated air defense system, you also want tech exclusivity on it. That is, you don't want your enemies to have a copy as well, to disseminate exactly how to attack you.

Turkey has been far more consistent about Ukrainian territorial integrity than even the EU. They have consistently asserted that Crimea is Ukranian

Ok and?

Turkey has been fighting Russian proxies in Libya and Syria wiht their own proxies and winning so far.

And simultaneously fighting against the Kurds, allied with the US and Israel.

One thing we can expect Turkey to do is to always act in their own interest. Supporting Ukraine against Russia in the Ukrainian threatre is in Turkish interest.

And then partnering with Russia to establish presence in the middle east.
I suppose you think occasional interest alignments with other axis powers won't interfere with that.

 

[John Fedup]

Understanding Trump tactics, just look on how he is doing his business, how he's doing advertising on his business ventures, how he's claiming extravagance values of his real estate or other ventures. After looking that, and see how's he is doing all political statement and pressure as POTUS (whether first term or now).

He's doing politics as his businesses with extravagance claims, that's why many market analysts especially those who has experience or exposure assessing Trump Companies, usually say he's not doing this as President of US. He's not doing the tactics as most politicians as others POTUS do, he's doing it as CEO of US Enterprise. Seems many Americans like him cause he behave as CEO and not usual Politicians.

Add:

Just an example, even in his younger years. Push above line first then make deals more his liking and acceptances.

His formal casino businesses in Atlantic city are great examples of his capabilities.

 

[Redshift]

Understanding Trump tactics, just look on how he is doing his business, how he's doing advertising on his business ventures, how he's claiming extravagance values of his real estate or other ventures. After looking that, and see how's he is doing all political statement and pressure as POTUS (whether first term or now).

He's doing politics as his businesses with extravagance claims, that's why many market analysts especially those who has experience or exposure assessing Trump Companies, usually say he's not doing this as President of US. He's not doing the tactics as most politicians as others POTUS do, he's doing it as CEO of US Enterprise. Seems many Americans like him cause he behave as CEO and not usual Politicians.

Add:

Just an example, even in his younger years. Push above line first then make deals more his liking and acceptances.

Trump's business policies may have made him rich, although how rich exactly is contested and lets face it Elon Bezos Zuckerberg etc. all utterly dwarf his fortune, but many of his employees, customers and investors have not fared so well.

Six (or is it seven now?) of his companies to date have declared bankruptcy costing many people other than himself their livelihoods and money.

Trump often claims to be a self made billionaire, and others promote him as such despite the fact that he would seem to have benefitted from around $400 million from his Dad as well as a variety of trust funds.

I do think that this way of doing business as a CEO of the USA will probably benefit him and many of his family, as well as others like himself from the "elite" business class over time but the US population is likely to suffer as much as his former employees, customers and creditor's, they just won't realise that until it's far too late.

Only time will tell but I don't see the American people loving him quite so much in ten years time.

 

[Ananda]

formal casino businesses in Atlantic city are great examples of his capabilities.

Well he's business survivor, he has ups and down so does much of businessman. However what matters is, the way that his politics style has reflection on how his businesses style. So understanding his business style seems will give insight how's he approach on doing his POTUS style.

 

[swerve]

...
For a long time, the EU has been isolationist, happily accepting an American defense umbrella, but hostile to other major allies such as Israel and Taiwan. In 2025 this means that the EU can only really recruit South Korea as a foreign supplier, but only because South Korea is willing to sell anything to everyone, no strings attached (except of course those directly hostile to it). This is a double edged sword, because the same tech could be in the hands of nations hostile to Europe.

This is nonsense. Israel is both a buyer of EU made weapons & equipment & a supplier to EU countries.

For example, Italy operates Israeli AEW systems, fitted to US business jets in Israel, & is buying more. Israel has Italian jet trainers & ground-based systems which work with them. The Israeli navy has German submarines & corvettes, with Italian guns. Germany is buying Israeli radars, e.g. for warships, & MRLS & ATGMs. In 2019-23 30% of Israel's military equipment imports were from Germany. Denmark is buying Israeli 155mm SP guns & MRLs, & Israeli firms are competing to supply air defence systems. A few years ago Lithuania was complaining about Israel - because weapons Lithuania had ordered from Israel weren't being delivered on time. It was settled after a while, & Lithuania's now buying more. Estonia has Israeli ATGMs, anti-ship missiles & UAVs. Latvia has ATGMs (20 EU countries have bought Spike). Sweden - UAVs.

And so on . . . .