The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[koxinga]

Zelensky doesn't drag this on. Putin does. Zelensky and the Ukrainian army is only trying to stop the Russian invasion of their country. Zlelensky has no possibility to stop the war unless he capitulates. Putin on the other hand, can stop the war tomorrow if he wanted.

Putin will stop this war only if you can make/force him to. He is not going to wake up one morning and says "let's end this". It is either a decisive Ukrainian battlefield victory, or Ukraine outlasting Russia in a war of attrition/ causing economic collapse and some kind of internal coup happens (e.g Russian Revolution). Neither is likely at this point.

Ukraine might feel aggrieved that as a victim, it has to compromise, potentially giving up terrorities to Russia, the aggressor, which effectively rewards the aggressor action but that is unfortunately, the reality today (keep fighting but neither Russia or Ukraine has to capacity to truly win)

 

[Bob53]

The political theatre of the Trump administration of the last few days is quite concerning. The flip from somewhat balanced proclamations to a hard anti-Zelenski is sudden and dramatic (even for Trump). I cannot fathom what the (apparent) shift to Putins point of view could gain us.

There is no point in getting upset until we actually hear something real being proposed.

It will mean the

If the rare earth minerals don't exist then Ukraine should absolutely sell them to The Donald immediately, while we are at it I'm sure we have a few more London bridges that he could buy ....

thats what I was thinking. Clearly specify the minerals that don’t exist or have low quantities and say yes you get 50% of those minerals.

 

[T.C.P]

What will be the biggest impact of US military and starlink shut down in Ukraine?

Starlink-

Of the top of my head, the first thing that comes to mind are the suicide boats, that are trappingt he Russian Black sea fleet. I think they rely heavily on STarlink.

The Heavy night bomber drones used by Ukraine to take out Russian vehicles and armour behind ebemy lines are also built with skylink terminals

These 2 things alone take away a lot fo Ukrainain offensive potential

US weapons-

Interceptors- Unless EU can really bolster production of SAMP-Ts and IRISTs, we cna expect more Russian long range strike into Western Ukraine.

Franken Sams/GraveHawks are only useful against Shaheds. Anything more complicated like Kalibres, Kh-29/31s, KH-101s, Iskanders, S-300 ground mode, requiresmore complex interceptors. I dont know if Ukriane has much stock of legacy interceptors left.

Artillery- I look at a lot of Pro Ukr sources and they love the M-777.Many of them prefer them to SPHs, as they are moe survivable in the drone filled combat space. If US stops supplies, can Europe replace US supply of towed arty?

IFVs/APCs/MRAPs- If no more US supplied Bradleys, Strykers, Humvees, Oskhosh, MTLBs are goign to show up, does the EU have the stock to keep up the supply? The sheer number of vehicles Ukraine lost in Kursk just to Fibre optic FPVs alone is staggering.


Potential Solutions-

Turkey has been consistent inbeing very Pro Ukraine and are more than willing to sell to Ukraine. EU needs to buy up as many as Kobras, Kirpis, as possible to prepare for the disappearance of US vehicle supply.

I wonder if Germany/Italy can promise refurbs or leo-2s to Turkey in exchange of immediate transfer of older upgraded Turkish Leos and M-48s.

EU should alos use their intelligence services to buy up as much ammunition, and soviet vehicles not detroyed by Israel in Syria. Their new govt is cash strapped and have little love for Russia and would probably be willing to sell to Europe.

 

[koxinga]

This describes the scenario for a "least worst deal" in three points

(1) No further territorial concessions beyond Crimea and the four provinces of Donbas.
(2) Credible security guarantee that prevents Putin from simply rearming and restarting the war
(3) Provision for continued military assistance from the US and Europe.

While all three points are reasonable, if we assume that Putin's Russia is a bad faith actor/untrustworthy, the key condition should be consequences for breaking any condition.

That removes the point about whether Putin can be trusted, because consequences have to be real and painful. A carrot only deal to end the war merely defers the conflict and reinforces the idea that war is viable.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-21/ukraine-can-survive-with-the-least-worst-peace-deal

 

[Feanor]

China will process the rare earths mined in Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia for their own benefit, giving China a even more overwhelming global leadership in these strategic resources.

Process the rare earths that don't exist?

At the very best, the US will have access to a very small percentage of rare earth resources in the part of Ukraine under their control after an agreement between Trump and Putin/Xi to partition Ukraine. Ukraine will be divided between territories annexed to Russia and a buffer zone where american will be allowed to be.

More likely the US won't be present in a buffer zone, but will be far away from the new border. If their purpose is guarding resources, they will likely do that and little more.

Trump is able to lure investors from Russia, and perhaps he tries to play the guys in the Kremlin too. But he is not doing such complex machination.
+ I don't know what Russia is able to offer or willing to offer the US in such deal. It should be something substantial that Russia precisely doesn't want to give to the US.

This is what has me wondering as well, what could be worth these kinds of concessions?

 

[Ananda]

Put Elon Podcasts on China and Ukraine. I don't want to dwell on Elon opinion which off course will be divisive, but what Elon increasingly represents. Elon represents unofficial hints toward what Trump administration moves.

I move to near end of this Podcasts and quote: "China with its neutral stance will have better possition to bring lasting peace". So China involvement in ending Ukraine war, giving them deals as part of it, it's not something that unthinkable. Russia clearly close to China now, Ukraine want to reach out to China and seems unofficial US now give hints open on China involvement. Perhaps this is part of Trump moves that want to make new security deals with Putin and Xi.

Thus which will be left behind? (at least present momentum shown), it will be EU. Trump already says he will reach our to Individuals Euro administration that willing to follow him, but he will by pass EU.

Add:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-expects-ukraine-sign-critical-minerals-deal-soon-2025-02-21/

Perhaps because potential deal with Ukraine, now Trump saying Putin did invade but they (means Biden, EU and Zelensky) should not let him to invade. So soften bit on Zelensky, but direction seems the same. Personally it is again shown how Trump treat International Diplomacy as like dealing on business transactions.

 

[rsemmes]

...economic collapse and some kind of internal coup.
...neither Russia or Ukraine has to capacity to truly win.

This describes the scenario for a "least worst deal" in three points
(1) No further territorial concessions beyond Crimea and the four provinces of Donbas.
(2) Credible security guarantee that prevents Putin from simply rearming and restarting the war
(3) Provision for continued military assistance from the US and Europe.
While all three points are reasonable, if we assume that Putin's Russia is a bad faith actor/untrustworthy, the key condition should be consequences for breaking any condition.
That removes the point about whether Putin can be trusted, because consequences have to be real and painful. A carrot only deal to end the war merely defers the conflict and reinforces the idea that war is viable.

Zelenski can, and could, get up and start negotiating to end the war. He actually did that.
I wonder is Ukraine is not closer to that collapse; however unlikely.
I think Russia has that capacity (and cannot use it in this situation), Ukraine hasn't.

1/ I am not so sure about those 4 provinces. Can Russia deport tens of thousands of people to those provinces? How many friendly Russian speakers are there? How many will remain? A strong starting position at the beginning of negotiations looks like a good idea.
2/ Yes, that is the all important point. Do we remember Croatia after the Balkans war? Will NATO defend Russia if a rearmed Ukraine, in a different political situation, invades Russia? (Yes, extremely unlikely. Border conflict with China in 10 years?)
3/ Granted. That is a business opportunity.

Yes, good question. What is the stick? Who is going to apply the stick? Also against Ukraine?
Why do we take for granted that Russia is going to invade another country right away? Are there more Minsk Accords pending? Politics by other means works, we already know that.

 

[rsemmes]

Now...

Piatijatki, is that a coup de main, a big one or the always overoptimistic Kalibrated?

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

A new active front by the Dnieper?

 

[Feanor]

Now...

Piatijatki, is that a coup de main, a big one or the always overoptimistic Kalibrated?

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

A new active front by the Dnieper?

Completely insignificant so far. Suriyakmaps also reported movement in that area but it was a couple of days ago.