The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russian strikes landing in Kiev.


Footage of the aftermath from Russian strikes in Kiev that allegedly hit an FPV drone production facility, storage facilities and several Ukrainian TV studios among other targets.


Russian strikes on Kharkov caused a series of blackouts.


Battle damage at a cement factory in Kharkov.


Russian missile strike hit the administrative building in Izyum. This building was destroyed in fighting around the town in '22, and rebuilt afterwards.


In Chuguev Russia hit the Chebek factory, possibly because it was being used by Ukrainian forces to stage.


Russian strike near Kramatorsk allegedly hit a Ukrainian munition storage facility.


Russia hit the Sencha gas works and gas fields in Poltava region.


Russian Kalibr launches, allegedly to hit Poltava.


Russia appears to have hit the gas works in Chernigov but good footage is lacking.


Russia hit a power plant in Nikolaev. We have scarce footage of the impacts and some results.


Ukraine claims Russia hit the sarcophagus of the 4th block of the Chernobyl NPP with a solo drone. This strike comes as Russia and the US sit down to negotiate, and it's unclear why Russia would do this. Russian unofficial sources claim it's a false flag by Ukraine to drum up anti-Russian sentiment and torpedo potential negotiations, but if that's true I don't think it was a smart move. I doubt Trump or his team will pay much attention to this. The engine of the drone allegedly involved is in one of the photos, so maybe someone can ID it. Either way the damage seems to be negligible.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian P-18 (or decoy) in northern Zaporozhye region, village of Ovcharnoe.


Russian strikes hit Odessa region.


Footage from Moldavia of Russian strikes landing in Odessa region.


Ukrainian APKWS engaging Russian Shaheds near Odessa.


Russia's new Italmas drone is finally seen up close and in service, it looks virtually identical to the prototypes shown earlier and it means the Italmas lookalikes we saw earlier were another type of drone altogether.


Ukrainian F-16A in Kiev region.


Ukrainian Mi-24Vs, ex-Czech, hunting Shahed drones, Ukraine's 11th Aviation Bde.


Ukraine attempted to hit the Volgograd oil refinery, but it's unclear if they succeeded.


Ukraine has attacked the Engel's airfield again, but BDA is lacking.


Ukrainian drones attempting to strike the oil refinery in Saratov but also no clear view of the results.


Ukrainian drone strikes in Krasnodar area, aiming for the local oil refinery, again no clear results, and a fuel storage facility that was definitely hit.


Battle damage allegedly from two Storm Shadow cruise missiles that hit a Russian drone storage in Orlov region.


Russian National Guard anti-drone team. Russia is essentially copying Ukraine's anti-drone approach.


Another Russian anti-drone pickup, this one with a YakB-12.7 machinegun. This is a quad-barreled HMG normally used on Mi-24 attack helicopters.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Another video of a PzH-2000 getting hit by a drone. Note they're close enough for FPV drones. No location on this one.


More footage of the allegedly Bulsae-4 guided missile system in Russian use. We only get the picture from the screen so no PID is possible as we don't have DPRK systems footage to compare to.


Drone wars are developing, here a Duke Vandal drone strikes a Ukrainian Lyut' UGV. This is the second such incident.


Russia's depth-charge MLRS was destroyed, and allows us to get a better look at the design. The chassis is a T-72.


Russian forces captured a Ukrainian T-72M1 with a Track Width Mine Plow from Pearson Engineering.


DPRK howitzers somewhere in the war, it's still not clear if they're crewed by Russian or North Korea personnel.


Russia's new T-72B3 variants are hitting the front lines. They can be distinguished by the very large roof cage that covers the rear of the hull but is only affixed to the turret. It's intended to offer a drone protection comparable to that of a tank shed without blocking turret rotation.


Russian drone hunter soldier with a new Garpiya EW and a shotgun. The EW is multi-channel, reportedly up to 8. The shotgun appears to be a civilian double-barrel. There is still no centralized single shotgun for drone defense pickets. We see many with the Vepr' automatic shotgun, many with the MR-155 pump action, but many with random hunting shotguns.


Some interesting footage of Russian assault teams training with an AMN590951 MRAP and BTR-82AT.


The armoring of truck continues, here's another Grad with armored panels on the cabin. Note while these are factory made kits, there are at least three different kits types just for the Ural cabin, and at least one for the Kamaz. This vehicle is battle group north, allegedly, so it's either in the Kharkov area or in Kursk region.


We have two interesting and very strange piece of footage of Russian troops with horses and donkeys. Presumably they're being used for transport somewhere near the front line, but this doesn't really make sense. They're hard to keep, vulnerable to even small shrapnel, and slow in general. Their advantage could be availability, except... Russia isn't that kind of farming country anymore. There isn't a giant population of livestock and people who know how to use it. The only thing I can think of is that in some places terrain can be so bad that horses or donkeys are preferred. Pre-war the 33rd Mountain Bde used some as did the 7th Para-Assault Division, which also had mountin training. This advantage is undisputable. But there are no mountains in Ukraine. In short I have no good explanation of this footage.


Russian 2A42 autocannon mounted on a D-44 carriage presumably to use as an infantry support weapon. The person filming it also points out that it's unclear how they plan to get it into position. It's interesting that we haven't seen any Russian D-44s in service, only Ukrainian ones. So it may be that the carriage was a captured Ukrainian piece, with possibly a damaged cannon.


For illustration, here's a Ukrainian D-44 firing imported Polish shells.


It appears Ukraine is running low on longer ranged shells, and even PzH-2000s are using old M107 shells, which explains why we're getting footage of them being hit by drones. This is Ukraine's 43rd Arty Bde.


An antiquated ex-Czech Kub-M2 in Ukrainian service. The Kub is the predecessor of the Buk, itself a fairly old system at this point. Reportedly Ukraine got two batteries of these.


A Ukrainian IRIS-T SLS on the Iveco Eurocargo chassis.


Ukrainian F-16, somewhere. Sighting of them have become more common.


A convincing looking Ukrainian F-16 decoy.


Rare footage of Crotale SAMs with Ukraine's 38th SAM Rgt. They're of the towed variety and reportedly Ukraine got two such systems.


Ukraine's 156th Mech training with a BTR-60.


Ukraine's 13th National Guard Bde training with a captured T-72B3 and a upgraded T-72M1.


Ukraine's 5th Mech Bde with Leo-1A5s.


German instructors train Ukrainian crews on Leo-1A5s.


We had some discussion about what constitutes a Gravehawk. We now have a container-based SAM system using R-73 AA missiles. I think that at least some sources regard AA missiles repurposed as SAMs for Ukraine as Gravehawks. If anyone knows of a dispositive source on the subject, I'd appreciate the share.


A Ukrainian UAV and missile production facility was recently showed in Kiev. It's possible it's the same one that got hit above.


Allegedly footage of Mirage-2000s heading to Ukraine through Poland.


Ukraine is reportedly preparing a voluntary contract scheme for 18-24 year olds that will offer incentives to get them to volunteer. Taken at face value it looks like complete lunacy. I don't believe any substantial numbers will sign up. But it could be used as cover for a hidden forced mobilization of 18-24 year olds. They will be a minority in the armed forces, and examples could be chalked up to voluntary enlistments that changed their mind.


Russia and Ukraine did another KIA exchange. Russia handed over 757 bodies of dead Ukrainian soldiers and received 45 Russian dead in return. This is the most lopsided such exchange yet, and is part of a trend.


The Netherlands will reportedly supply Ukraine with 25 YPR-765 MEDEVAC variants.


Latvia will reportedly supply 42 Patria APCs to Ukraine in 2025.


Information has come out that Russian war wounded are being treated in DPRK sanatoriums. It's unclear if this is a mostly symbolic gesture or if Russia is really short on domestic facilities.

 

MARKMILES77

Well-Known Member
Looks like Trump plans to turn Ukraine into a slave state of the U.S.A. in perpetuity.
The Telegraph has obtained a copy of Trump's demands off Ukraine to help settle the war in Ukraine.
It can be argued they are harsher than those imposed upon Germany at Versaille after WW1!

The Telegraph.

Revealed: Trump’s confidential plan to put Ukraine in a stranglehold

Panic in Kyiv as US president demands higher share of GDP than Germany’s First World War reparations
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.
The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv.
The Telegraph has obtained a draft of the pre-decisional contract, marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”.
The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states.

The US will take 50pc of recurring revenues received by Ukraine from extraction of resources, and 50pc of the financial value of “all new licences issued to third parties” for the future monetisation of resources. There will be “a lien on such revenues” in favour of the US. “That clause means ‘pay us first, and then feed your children’,” said one source close to the negotiations.

It states that “for all future licences, the US will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals”. Washington will have sovereign immunity and acquire near total control over most of Ukraine’s commodity and resource economy. The fund “shall have the exclusive right to establish the method, selection criteria, terms, and conditions” of all future licences and projects. And so forth, in this vein. It seems to have been written by private lawyers, not the US departments of state or commerce.
Trump has also basically threatened that Russia can have Ukraine if Ukraine doesn't agree to the deal.

He warned that Ukraine would be handed to Putin on a plate if it rejected the terms. “They may make a deal. They may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday. But I want this money back,” he said.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Looks like Trump plans to turn Ukraine into a slave state of the U.S.A. in perpetuity.
The Telegraph has obtained a copy of Trump's demands off Ukraine to help settle the war in Ukraine.
It can be argued they are harsher than those imposed upon Germany at Versaille after WW1!



Trump has also basically threatened that Russia can have Ukraine if Ukraine doesn't agree to the deal.



Is the actual text of the agreement just the part you quoted or is there more? If the latter, is there a place that doesn't require a subscription to get it?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
UK PM Starmer: "There must be a US backstop because a US security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again."

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said her country was ready to discuss ways to contribute to a peace deal, but added: "The Americans must be involved and they must show their commitment".

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof: "If it's necessary for Ukraine's security guarantees that European troops are needed, then I think the Netherlands should at least take part in a discussion about how this can be done.

Poland, however, ruled out sending Polish troops to Ukraine.


Perhaps this is why Trump have big confidence everyone in the end will follow US and Russia negotiations result. Perhaps this is why Putin even during Biden time put possition only negotiations with US that matter.
 

MARKMILES77

Well-Known Member
Situation certainly moving fast!
Financial Times (article behind pay wall) reporting Trump has offered to no longer rotate U.S. troops to Baltics and possibly remove U.S. troops from Eastern European countries. Romania, Hungary and Poland????
The Sun has printed a graphic which summarizes much of what is rumoured so far.
Basically looks like a big win for Russia and a big loss for Ukraine:
Screenshot 2025-02-18 at 19.39.27.png

 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Interesting plan. Just give Russia everything it wants while the US also jumps in and helps itself to $500 billion worth of rare earth minerals.

My counter would be to also hand over frozen Russian financial assets to Ukraine and allow a legitimate referendum to be held in the occupied region as to whether they really wish to join Russia or not.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group


Rubio and Lavrov now already in talks in Riyadh. This is really developing fast.
 
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rsemmes

Member
youtuber

Shock waves

increasing military spending
The Ukrainian Government didn't provide that explanation, the Ukrainian Military didn't provide that explanation, but this intrepid correspondent was able to find the truth.
Trust, is not the first word that comes to mind.

No.
Those shockwaves.

Le président ukrainien, Volodymyr Zelensky, a appelé l’Europe « à agir pour son propre bien » et à avoir « ses propres forces armées » pour se défendre face à la Russie, lors de la Conférence de Munich sur la sécurité, alors que l’administration Trump entretient le doute sur l’implication des Etats-Unis dans la sécurité du continent.

Is Zelenski saying that we should keep our weapons to ourselves?
Are you saying that this is another shockwave? This shockwave is from 2022 or 2023? UK MoD already called (past tense) it Great news! (Well paid jobs for UK) Now, we are even making gun barrels again. Great news!
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting plan. Just give Russia everything it wants while the US also jumps in and helps itself to $500 billion worth of rare earth minerals.

My counter would be to also hand over frozen Russian financial assets to Ukraine and allow a legitimate referendum to be held in the occupied region as to whether they really wish to join Russia or not.
Russia also wants the rest of Zaporozhye, Kherson, and Donetsk region. Presumably they're not getting that. Or does this plan involve handing over those territories in part or in whole?

EDIT: To be clear, I'm not asking this to imply that this is a Russian concession per se. Rather I'm wondering if Trump will in fact attempt to do hand those territories over.
 
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rsemmes

Member
General opinion... General?

Leaders divided.

Poland will not send troops. Any opinion from Hungary?

"A split has emerged among European nations over whether to match Sir Keir Starmer’s pledge to send UK troops to Ukraine, as allies thrash out a response to US president Donald Trump’s push for a deal with Vladimir Putin."

Pledge:
“Europe must play its role, and I’m prepared to consider committing British forces on the ground alongside others if there is a lasting peace agreement."
It doesn't sound exactly like: "The 16.000 men of the Guards Division will deploy 36 days after the signature of the Peace Agreement." How many men, where, for how long?
For those who don't follow UK politics, we had 5 conservative PM in a pretty quick row. Is this PM going to be in power for Easter? Because then he may very well say that the situation is different and "I cannot uphold my pledge"; he is a politician.

Zelenski may decide to keep fighting without US weapons and money. Zelenski cannot decide if any European will increase or decrease the supply of weapons.

Periódico La Razón (España). Periódicos de España. Toda la prensa de hoy. Kiosko.net (bottom left)
"Lasting Peace"
The war is over, Ukraine has been defeated, let's see what Ukraine can "salvage"; and we want a seat at the table. (Certainly, not a literal translation).

Ukraine is counterattacking in Pokrovsk (slowing down, not stopping, the enemy), it is not trying to recover its positions across the Oskil, it is not trying to retake Chasiv Iar and it hasn't started any offensive to take Belgorod. Ukraine seems unable to conduct decisive operations along more than one axis.
I may be wrong and it is massing troops to retake Ugledar (and Robotine). Once Ukraine runs out of these brigades, "And then what?", still hoping for the "Russian collapse"?
Whatever "backstabbing" Trump may be (15 years to get those rare earths), there is an opportunity to end the war now. My opinion is that Ukraine is not going to be in a better situation in June, not politically, even less in the battlefield.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
The Ukrainian push towards Ulanok has resulted in a flurry of footage of Ukrainian vehicles getting hit.
When Ukrainians are counter attacking, Russians seem to be able to inflict them heavy losses and stop their advance.
However it should be noted that being hit doesn't mean being lost because NATO vehicles are much more resilient than Soviet ones. Of course when Ukrainians use Soviet tanks, there is no difference. I'm talking about Bradley, Marder, Leo etc.
There is also a lot of duplicates or the same item under different angles in the list you provided.

Russian troops keep advancing, at a slow rate, but enough to convince Putin that it's worth continuing.
You are right: The front line has not stalled.
________________________________

MARKMILES77 said:
Trump has offered to no longer rotate U.S. troops to Baltics and possibly remove U.S. troops from Eastern European countries. Romania, Hungary and Poland????
This is neither accurate, relevant or actual.
1/ In the Baltics, and possibly other countries -I didn't check- the US is paid for deploying troops, and there are agreements that you can't cancel easily.
Trump doesn't know yet that the US get money for their troop deployment but as soon as he will know it, it will be ok for him to keep US troops there.

2/ Over 60K of the +-100K US troops are deployed in south or south-west Germany, Belgium, Spain and Italy. This is too far from the front line to offer some kind of resistance other than long range bombing and nuclear deterrence.
It was ok when the Russians were in Berlin and in Karl-Marx-Stadt. Not now, when the Red Army is in the Leningrad region, Belorussia and the Donbas.
There only approximately 2200 American military personnel in the three Baltic states, about 4000 in Poland and 2000 in Romania. These numbers may not be exact because I quote them from memory and internet sources like Wikipedia are completely obsolete. If someone can post a link with an updated summary of US deployment in Europe, it will be welcome.

3/ Most of the US military personnel in Europe are not combat units. They are logistic personnel, instructors, advisers, air base personnel, office workers, diplomatic personnel, and so on.
Of course the withdrawal of all US "troops" from Europe will bring a new challenge. But Europe depending on the US for its defence is a myth.

4/ Trump won't want to do it because he doesn't want to look like a traitor, no matter how much he despises Europe.

hauritz said:
Interesting plan. Just give Russia everything it wants while the US also jumps in and helps itself to $500 billion worth of rare earth minerals.
It's not going to happen. I was even surprised that they handed Zelensky a document about that to be signed. I hope that nobody in the US delegation expected Zelensky to sign it. Else they should have their brain examined. I don't think that they are all like Trump... But they all looked ridiculous.

Zelensky agrees on the principle. But contracts must be prepared with minimum of seriousness.

hauritz said:
My counter would be to also hand over frozen Russian financial assets to Ukraine ...
They already use the profits from these assets. But all these profits is western money anyway (western companies dividend, western treasury bonds etc...)
They are not ready to give Ukraine the capital yet. Not only for legal reasons, but to keep a bargaining chip in negotiations. If Russia makes reasonable concessions, they might get this capital back. This is however, more and more unlikely as the cost of destruction by the Russian army piles up. And more likely that all of this will be used to reconstruct Ukraine, But after the war.

hauritz said:
...and allow a legitimate referendum to be held in the occupied region as to whether they really wish to join Russia or not.
That was one of the main point of the Minsk Agreement. But the Russians decided to make the referendum themselves without Ukraine's supervision, which made it de facto invalid.
Putin won't accept a West-controlled referendum in the territories he occupies more today than then. Thought he would have chances to win with all the money he has poured there.

Ananda said:
Rubio and Lavrov now already in talks in Riyadh. This is really developing fast.
So far, I don't see any pause or announcement of a pause in Russian bombing of Ukraine, so nothing has changed yet.
If something relevant has been said at this meeting we will know it. So far we only know that they decided to meet again and that Russia hasn't modify their requirements by one iota.

rsemmes said:
Poland will not send troops. Any opinion from Hungary?
As I explained earlier, Poland being on the border with the Russian Federation has, ipso factum, already all its army deployed on the Theater of operation.
Moving Polish troops from Poland to Ukraine, would be the same as moving Ukrainian troops from Zaporyzhia to Pokrovsk.
They can't do it without exposing an unprotected flank.

The same applies for Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The leader of Hungary and perhaps Slovakia too, is not participating in the defence of Europe because they have made the choice of appeasement.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
When Ukrainians are counter attacking, Russians seem to be able to inflict them heavy losses and stop their advance.
However it should be noted that being hit doesn't mean being lost because NATO vehicles are much more resilient than Soviet ones. Of course when Ukrainians use Soviet tanks, there is no difference. I'm talking about Bradley, Marder, Leo etc.
There is also a lot of duplicates or the same item under different angles in the list you provided.
And some vehicle got hit more than once. But the numbers are still quite large. This is bigger then the mess at Berdin by a hefty margin. The difference here is that the dismounts initially managed to seize some ground. Now it appears they're being dislodged, and one of the problems is that Ukraine doesn't seem to be able to reinforce and rotate in and out of these areas. Of course the real threat is the Russian push through Sverdlikovo. That one threatens the MSR into Sudzha, which is death for Ukraine's forces there. Lostarmour is confirming 16 PID vehicles destroyed in that area but they only confirm 2 MaxxPros getting hit, and I believe the footage showed at least three, with two destroyed right next to each other. They're also missing the Biber, the Wisent, and the IMR-2. Maybe they can't confirm destruction?


Russian troops keep advancing, at a slow rate, but enough to convince Putin that it's worth continuing.
You are right: The front line has not stalled.
I wouldn't be surprised if a certain amount of sunk cost fallacy is at play too. One of the critical parts is the question of which side collapses first if this is fought to the point of collapse. Right now Ukraine has yanked personnel out of rear units to replenish the infantry and sent the 150 series brigades to the front. Ukraine has a few more tricks up their sleeve to shore up dwindling manpower, but it will only go so far. I think Ukraine can last this year, but will lose more ground than last year, and be in real trouble next year.
 

rsemmes

Member
So far, I don't see any pause or announcement of a pause in Russian bombing of Ukraine, so nothing has changed yet.

As I explained earlier, Poland being on the border with the Russian Federation has, ipso factum, already all its army deployed on the Theater of operation.
Why should any pause take place? Ukraine is not even talking, is it? First, you have to negotiate the ceasefire, you have to talk in order to achieve that.

I thought the point was the "general" opinion, the divided opinion sounds closer to reality. Maybe Ukraine doesn't share your concept of "Theatre of Operations". (I don't.)
I am starting to think that you have a lot of "personal" concepts, like about "Asiatic", "general" or "Theatre of Operations"; the war is in eastern Ukraine, as far as I can remember.

Curiously enough, Munich is often mentioned, the Non-Intervention Committee not that much.
 

MARKMILES77

Well-Known Member
Lavrov has said the presence of any troops, from any NATO country, as part of a Peacekeeping force in Ukraine, is not acceptable to Russia.
I doubt countries in Africa/Asia/South America are going to offer large numbers of troops for a permanent Peace Keeping force in Ukraine.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov:
“The appearance of troops from NATO countries … under a foreign flag, the flag of the European Union or the national flag, is unacceptable,”
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This is in my opinion from whatever angle you see is clearly a strong rebuke to Zelensky. Basically he says to Zelensky, you are disappointed not having a seat in the meeting, well tough luck. You have your chances, and now just follow me, or else.

He always back to his standing that this war will not happen if he is the president at that time. He clearly put Biden as fault to this war and gives massage not only to Zelensky, but also to EU, I'm in charge now. I'm going to make a deal with Putin as it should be if I'm President in 22, and you thus all better just follow me.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Well it is inline with Trump media conference. Trump will make deal with Putin, Zelensky and Brussels going have to follow the deal (if being finalise). Consequently if you don't follow then fight Russia without US backing (something that Zelensky acknowledge Ukraine have low chance to survive the war without US backing).

Off course Russia will not stop fight until Zelensky follow US deals. US going to make deals with Russia on other issue, regardless Ukraine and Euro says.

Add:


Rheimettal CEO basically say that US treat Euro as kids not being involved in grown-up table, is also due to Euro own mistakes.

"When the parents are having dinner, the children have to sit at a different table," he said, adding that European and Ukrainian arsenals are now running out of weapons
He's MIC CEO, but he also being honest saying whether the war continues or not, his company and other MIC will still benefits due to Defense increase. However his statement clearly shown Euro can't fight Russia without US back at this moment. Unless Euro build up their defense stocks, it will stay that way.
 
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