The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes, because this so called peace agreement will be agreed under Russian blackmail, after hundred of thousands have died, and only to stop Putin killing even more people. It would be a just thing that Ukraine retakes territories stolen by Russia whenever it's possible.

It will be the same kind of agreement that France had with Germany in 1940, under the Vichy government. Did France do something wrong by retaking territories under German occupation despite the agreement made with Germany? Of course not.
It's not blackmail since it's not a case of Russia threatening to reveal damaging information about Ukraine. It's a war where Ukraine faces either the prospect of continued Russian aggression or a peace that costs them territory some foreign policy options.

Same situation here.
Anyway, it's not going to happen because Russia will rearm ASAP after the end of hostilities.
Except Russia's economy needs tending, and the collective west, without overly straining themselves can outproduce Russia on a long enough timeline and on a massive scale. The EU could do it even without the US. Russia will attempt to re-arm but they will have to deal with other issues too. And the kind of things Russia can produce at scale and cheaply are less and less impressive. A BMP-3 looked good in the 90's, ok in the 2000's, outdated in the 2010s, and we're in the 2020s. This applies to much of what Russia can pump out in volume.

Russia is not going to collapse as Nazy Germany did.
Nazi Germany didn't collapse. They fought until the bitter end, and the end was bitter. The Soviet assault on Berlin was a massive and bloody undertaking. Nazi Germany was defeated by the combined forces of the USSR (not Russia), the USA, and a whole alliance of other countries.

However, Russia may one day return territories to Ukraine voluntarily in exchange of normalised commercial relations, gas and oil transit, economic partnership, trade agreement with the EU,... after a change of regime, in a far future.
This is extremely unlikely. The demographics of these territories have already changed, and Russia isn't the USSR. They won't go out of their way to preserve languages and cultures. It's very likely that if Russia keeps these territories, within a couple of generations their population will be assimilated.

The Russians didn't respect the Misk agreement because they never let the Ukrainians hold the referendum in Lugansk and Donetsk. And also because the ceasefire was never respected by any party, because these agreements are not worth the paper they are written on.
The Mink Accords had an order of implementation. Poroshenko in 2016 and later Zelensky attempted to execute on those agreement but faced resistance within their own government and ultimately gave up and openly admitted they weren't going to follow through on it. Since then Germany has stepped forward and openly claimed that the Minsk Accords were negotiated in bad faith. Presumably this refers to the EU side of it. Had Ukraine implemented the parts that came earlier and it had gotten to the referendum, and had Russia at that point failed to hold one, you would have a point. But that's not the way events unfolded. And playing around with the implementation order of the Minsk Accords is a favorite trick of Ukraine's propaganda machine. This has all been done to death. Ukraine failed to implement and after a half-hearted effort led by their president they gave up and openly stalled.

And it will be the same with Trump's song and dance: Putin and Zelensky will never agree to a ceasefire. It's not going to happen. They will fight until one or the other is completely exhausted and capitulates. Either Putin sees his troops advancing and has no reason to hurry up for a peace deal, or Zelensky sees his troops advancing and will not hurry neither.
Maybe. But there's an advantage to negotiating an end to the war when you have the option of continuing instead of waiting to be defeated or win. Ukraine can sit down and if they don't like the deal, get back up and walk away. Russia can sit down and the same applies.

Actually the front line seems to have stalled, but it's only temporary. Both sides think that the other is on the verge of exhaustion. Zelensky may accept a bad deal in order to stop losing even more territories, but I don't think that Putin would if it's him who loses ground.
I don't think the front line has stalled. Ukrainian reinforcements with a series of counter-attacks have halted the envelopment of Pokrovsk, but Russia continues to advance in other areas. I think Ukraine has correctly identified where they need to put their reinforcements and have directed their counter-attacks appropriately which is why it's been effective. But it only addresses that section of the front.

Ukrainians don't give a damn what Corn Flakes or Hoggseth is saying. As long as Putin is bombing Ukraine with Shaheds, cruise missiles and large callibre artillery, they have no choice but organise their defence, no matter what people in other countries are saying.

Did Putin stopped his night attacks on Ukrainian cities after talking with Trump on the telephone? No.
So what Trump's influence is on this matter? Zero.
Do you think that Putin will stop bombing Ukraine if Trump stops providing weapons to Zelensky? Of course not.

More over, Europeans also don't care about what the US may decide. And it seems that the idea of deployment of European NATO troops in Ukraine after the peace agreement is a higher and higher probability. It's even possible that they would deploy already after a ceasefire. In fact being or not being in NATO is irrelevant. What is relevant is the bilateral engagement from western partners to help Ukraine militarily. Putin doesn't want Ukraine in NATO? OK, he just forgets that bilateral defence agreements can be more biding than NATO. In fact the NATO's mutual assistance is very loosy. Putin, however, agrees that Ukraine joins the EU (because in his mind, the EU is ruled by degenerates who will only weaken Ukraine)? OK: He doesn't know that mutual military assitance in case of agression is much more biding among EU members than among NATO members. ==> Huh!!!
It seems like you yourself have pointed a great way forward for Ukraine post-war. Rely on non-NATO mutual defense arrangements. I also think this is the way forward for Ukraine. There's no reason an EU-member Ukraine can't be just a safe with mutual agreements for defense in an EU framework as they would be in a NATO one.

Good question: First of all, Nobody is going to ask Putin's opinion on the subject. There might be a promise that Ukraine won't join NATO, but that would be purely symbolical, only flattering Putin's ego.
If it's part of a peace treaty you expect Russia to agree to then you will have to ask Putin's (or whoever's in charge) opinion.

In reality, no matter the peace deal, Ukraine will become fortress #1 and if some western countries want to deploy contingents in Ukraine, there will be nothing that Putin could do about that. There won't be any agreement of non-deployment.
Putin could decline the peace treaty and keep fighting until Ukraine is either willing to go with a neutral status as part of the peace treaty or is completely defeated.

The goal for Ukraine and Europe is to prevent any further Russian attack or invasion. To reach this goal, foreign deployment may be necessary. Maybe, maybe not, but if it's necessary they will.
If it's necessary, and if they accept it's necessary, it could play out this way.

Putin's goal is of course the opposite: To secure in the peace agreement all the conditions to allow one more invasion of Ukraine once he will be ready.
I'm not sold that this is true.

Secondly, as I said above already: An agreement with Putin will be just as valid as an agreement with Adolph Hitler in 1940.
This seems to be your personal view of the subject and it implies you think any negotiations that take place from the part of the west and Ukraine will be by default in bad faith. Maybe that's true. But again it simply suggests that Russia shouldn't accept any deal. If Ukraine is defeated but relatively intact, and with plenty of western support, they can re-arm and try again. But if Ukraine is defeated so badly that they're left with less than half of their pre-war population, all their major industries destroyed, their already horrible demographics in utter shambles, and generational trauma from a 6 year long unwinnable war, will they be willing to try again? There's a level of damage to Ukraine as a society and as a nation-state that precludes any attempt at reconquest within the forseeable future even if Ukraine retains independence. If you're right in your estimation of Ukraine's and the EU countries' negotiating position, then that's the only real option for Russia. Pound Ukraine into sawdust until only sawdust is left.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
@Fredled, that last post of yours is lot of nonsense (no offence) and reads more like ranting than thoughtful content. I haven’t had much time lately, but I will address it once I get some to spare.
 

rsemmes

Member
Yes, because this so called peace agreement will be agreed under Russian blackmail

Anyway, it's not going to happen because Russia will rearm ASAP after the end of hostilities.

Secondly, as I said above already: An agreement with Putin will be just as valid as an agreement with Adolph Hitler in 1940.

The second question is the material possibility of Europe to deploy significant forces. Eastern Europe yes, because there is a popular and political will to do so

So what? Trump has a phone call with Putin (which should be normal after an inauguration) and it sends shockwaves?
LOL. As if Putin would change his mind after a phone call...
Yes, that is exactly the reason to wage war: To impose your will. You've got that part.

Do you mean Ukraine will not? What do countries do after expending their arsenals?

You forgot to mention like US and the agreements after the French departed Vietnam. (Hint: It is called "National Interests", not honesty.)

UK: Gen. Z doesn't want to fight for "King & Country". There is strong will (and very strong declarations) until the very moment to move from "words" to "acts".
It seems that France has a "strong will" to deploy troops in Greenland, I haven't seen anything yet.

You have read all those European declarations, right? Yes, strong shockwaves. It is a possibility that we are before the beginning of negotiations for a Peace Agreement. (And no, no one is going to stop shooting just yet; do you really need that to be pointed out?)
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't think the front line has stalled. Ukrainian reinforcements with a series of counter-attacks have halted the envelopment of Pokrovsk, but Russia continues to advance in other areas. I think Ukraine has correctly identified where they need to put their reinforcements and have directed their counter-attacks appropriately which is why it's been effective. But it only addresses that section of the front.
@Fredled prime example, take a look at the eastern flank of Pokrovsk. Twice Russian troops broke into the road juncture but were driven out by Ukrainian counter-attacks. Now Russia holds the juncture. Russian forces attempted to take Yelizavetovka once, were repulsed, and are now pushing in again through the ravine. Vodyanoe Drugoe was taken by Russian forces, re-taken by Ukraine, and now taken again by Russian forces. Meanwhile Russian forces also took Zelenoe Pole, and are now right next to Tarasovka, whose fall would allow them to advance on the road from the east. Ukraine's counter-attacks are meaningful and make sense, but the front isn't stalled. And Ukraine's efforts to evacuate anything significant out of Pokrovsk continue indicating that Ukraine certainly doesn't think the threat of losing the town has passed. The fight isn't over, and if a ceasefire materializes in April or May like some sources claim, it's overwhelmingly likely Pokrovsk will remain in Ukrainian hands. But if no ceasefire materializes, and the war continues, it's likely a case of when not if Pokrovsk is lost.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

After Hegseth announcement on US intentions to end Ukraine war, there're lots 'emotional outburst ' from European politicians, media and even average onlines ppl that Europe can goes alone supporting Ukraine to continue fight with Russia.

Zelensky in this interview acknowledge the chance of Ukraine survive the war with Russia without US backing, is very low. Thus I'm sorry those who says that supporting Ukraine without US backing is doable at this moment, is base on emotional ranting and not reality assessment.

Trump knows that, he knows he can push Ukraine and Euro to whatever deal he's going to make with Putin. All this emotional outburst in Euro zone and Ukraine, is (the way I see it) more effort to bargain with Trump on not forgetting them when dealing with Putin. Trump will try directly goes with Putin. Heck he even bring Xi in this one if necessary. He try to bargain new security order, and he's doing it as Business CEO and not Presidential style.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group

After Hegseth announcement on US intentions to end Ukraine war, there're lots 'emotional outburst ' from European politicians, media and even average onlines ppl that Europe can goes alone supporting Ukraine to continue fight with Russia.

Zelensky in this interview acknowledge the chance of Ukraine survive the war with Russia without US backing, is very low. Thus I'm sorry those who says that supporting Ukraine without US backing is doable at this moment, is base on emotional ranting and not reality assessment.

Trump knows that, he knows he can push Ukraine and Euro to whatever deal he's going to make with Putin. All this emotional outburst in Euro zone and Ukraine, is (the way I see it) more effort to bargain with Trump on not forgetting them when dealing with Putin. Trump will try directly goes with Putin. Heck he even bring Xi in this one if necessary. He try to bargain new security order, and he's doing it as Business CEO and not Presidential style.
Trump et al will get their way but allies will be fading away. Not a problem for MAGA…until it is.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group


I'm sorry to say this, but this is basically giving middle fingers to EU. No place for EU in negotiations table, it will be between US, Russia and Ukraine. Perhaps this is why Zelensky say it is unthinkable to fight Russia without US backing. Perhaps it is why also Trump only call Putin then Zelensky on the matter of ending war, and in this he says I have enough with EU.

I guess it's back to Zelensky, whether he choose to follow Trump or EU. Trump in my opinion seems saying to Zelensky, follow us and don't bother with Euro Zone.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
So it is actually choosing between
A. Trump, someone who has enough influence to negotiate with Putin, but in return he decides what happen and wants free access to Ukraine's natural resources.
or
B. The EU, a divided bunch of countries which let deteriorate their armed forces, but will not demand that much from Ukraina.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Before Russia invaded Ukraine the combined E.U defence budget was 200 billion and is expected to reach 326 billion Euros in 2024, a fifty percent increase ,Im not sure Trump has as much influence as he claims as often he tends to exaggerate .President Putin was under sanction by the International Criminal court requiring members to arrest him Trump has no problem though in imposing sanctions on that body ,not a fan of courts in any jurisdiction though unless he appoints the judges lol so will have no problems inviting President Putin to America
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
As all this fun is happening, Russian forces apparently have just collapsed the pocket west of Kurakhovo all the way down to Konstantinopol'. There are even unconfirmed reports of Russian elements near Bogatyr. There's nothing particularly significant in the area, but it might represent significant problems for Ukrainian forces in the area. Combined with the continuing pushes northward out of Velikaya Novoselka, this is probably setting the stage for Russian forces to clear the rest of Donetsk region to the Dnepropetrovsk border on that axis. North of there Russian forces are advancing west out of Serebryanoe, and Nadeevka. Because of the odd way the administrative boundary is in that part of Donetsk region, there's a large bulge north-north-west of Velikaya Novoselka where the border follows the Volchya river for a length before veering southward as the river goes west. It's not yet clear if this is significant. If Russia is counting on some sort of diplomatic success, seizing as much of what they claim annexed as possible is a likely intent, and seizing things they won't keep anyway may be less significant. On the other hand the current negotiations are very ambitious and leave a lot of unanswered questions. Meaning they might not have any significant impact on these considerations. It will certainly be a new alarm bell for Ukraine if Russian troops enter Dnepropetrovsk region.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Ukrainian border guards destroy five Russian fiber-optic drones in Sumy region
You wonder why I spend time posting on 5 FPV drones?
Because these drones are a big problem for Ukraine. There are not so many but they almost always hit their targets. According to Xavier Tytelman (for those who speak french I post the link here. Unfortunately there is no english subtittle), the only way to counter these drone so far was to run around tall trees until the drone runs out of optic wire. Now Ukrainians are using the same method as Russians: The shotgun. There are several videos showing Russian so called new ammunition against drone: Bullet with a plastic head full of pellets. It's nothing new: gun pellets existed since the beginning of the fire arms and has been widely used in hunting. The only thing new is that these bullets are compatible with their gun. They don't have to carry an extra gun to shoot drone and every soldier can protect himself with his regular riffle.
I don't know if it's more effective than the Ukrainians trying with 6 AK47 strapped together. They missed it. But they take it the wrong way. AK bullets and machine gun bullets (we can see a machine gun in the background) are way to big against small FPV drones. It's better to have more bullet but they can be smaller to allow a faster firing rate and cheaper to produce. Pellets are good in this sens, but they are effective only at short range. They say up to 100 meters, but I think that up to 50 meters is more realistic. The AK47 has a longer effective range but precision starts to be very bad beyond 100 meters (if you take the regular soviet era Kalashnikov). I think that they missed it because the drone was too far.

About 155th Brigade "Ann of Kiev" trained in France: Again according to the same live video, the story told by the Ukrainian soldiers at the front is quiet different from what we red in the press. Of course, it's impossible to know the truth but what they told Xavier Tytelman is interesting:
When the brigade came back from France, they were directed straight to the south-west of Pokrosvsk, in the area of Udatshne. Commanders on the ground immediately realised that it was better to mix the new recruits with battle hardened veterans. And many new recruits were not exited to face the Russian fire on their first day of arrival. So the commanders decided to replenish other units, in less dangerous areas, with the new recruits from the 155th brigade and replace the latter with veterans. The problem was that a transfer from one brigade to another must go through administrative red tape, and it can take two weeks before it's accepted. Because they wanted to do it immediately (on the same day, or the day after) they just told the soldiers to go by their own to the other places and unofficially integrate their new unit. That's what they did, but technically that made them deserters. During the two or three days they were moving from one place to another, they were recorded AWOL. This was necessary to get a record of who was where (or not there to be more exact). Because there is a law allowing deserters to come back after a short time without punishment, that's what they used to bypass administrative delays.
In reality there was a certain number of desertions, but most of the 1700 desertions reported in the press were in fact unofficial transfers.
The brigade was not disbanded, but they did very little until the reorganisation was complete and until they finally received enough drones to move into action. At their arrival, they were supposed to receive drones from Ukrainian resources, but there were not enough drones for them. They had to wait several weeks before they got what was needed.
Lately, they were acredited for counter attacking and stopping the Russians in the south-west of Pokrovsk.
__________________________
Kellogg said:
Europe will not be part of Ukraine peace talks
The US neither.

The only one at the negotiation table will be Vladimir Putin. He will have to negotiate with himself. Thinking alone about what to do next. Keep on attacking or proposing something. Andrii Yermak may be present at some point to be asked whether he and his colleagues agree to his conditions. Putin will definitely excludes Zelensky.
Everybody else will be only observers.

Putin will never agree to pull back or even to pause the advance because Trump offers him to lift some sanctions or to stop providing weapons to Ukraine. Putin is pathologicaly fixated on taking as much territories as possible and nothing is going to change that. Putin is never going to bargain the territories he took from Ukraine and considers now as Holly Russian Fatherland. For him, giving up territory in exchange of some concessions sounds like an oxymoron.

At the very best, Putin will agree at some points to keep the separation line where it is because Russia's internal problems will make it difficult to increase the war effort even further. Then he can pretend to negotiate to hide his distress, and Trump to pretend that he made a fantastic deal which saved millions of lives. But it won't be negotiated at all.
Ukrainians and Europeans are much more realistic about that. The feeling in Europe is that Putin only understands the language of brute force.

I think that the so called turmoil after Trump talked with Putin on the telephone (who called the other, BTW?) is vastly exaggerated. Everybody has called Putin at some point of the war and it didn't change anything.

Kellogg said:
Trump administration officials have also made clear in recent days that they expect European allies in NATO to take primary responsibility for the region
seaspear said:
Before Russia invaded Ukraine the combined E.U defence budget was 200 billion and is expected to reach 326 billion Euros in 2024, a fifty percent increase
American don't realise that it's been the case for two years already. The general opinion, here in Europe, is not that the US should stay to help, but that we, Europeans, do way too little in the defence area to protect our interests. There is a big imbalance in defence spending between Western Europe and Eastern Europe. The message is directed at Western Europe.

Ananda said:
Zelensky in this interview acknowledge the chance of Ukraine survive the war with Russia without US backing, is very low.
That's obvious for every one. Europe doesn't have the industrial capacity to produce enough weapons to counter Russia. In Russia every non-military manufacturer has to work some percentage of hours for the military (between 10 to 20% of their time). And they are paid what the government decides to pay.
In Western Europe, if a company has an order from the MoD, the work hour starts at 60€/h. Not only we don't have the production plants materially, but the labour cost is astronomical and everything else is over charged.

The second thing, is that Europe doesn't have to provide protection only to Ukraine, but to the entire potential front line all along the eastern EU border with Russia and Belarussia. This is a war effort that is not differentiated from the aid we provide to Ukraine. The barbed wire and dragon teeth that Ukrainians are laying are being prolonged by other countries until the north of Finland. IMO, this should be also included in the calculation.

Feanor said:
On the other hand the current negotiations are very ambitious and leave a lot of unanswered questions. Meaning they might not have any significant impact on these considerations. It will certainly be a new alarm bell for Ukraine if Russian troops enter Dnepropetrovsk region.
Exactly. The future of Ukraine is on the battle field. Not at conferences.
 

rsemmes

Member
a/ About 155th Brigade "Ann of Kiev" trained in France...

b/ Everybody has called Putin at some point of the war and it didn't change anything.

c/ The general opinion, here in Europe...

d/ The future of Ukraine is on the battle field. Not at conferences.
a/ Drones? Anything to say about shells and lack of shells?
Let's see, a youtuber, asking for money, for Ukraine, is telling, now, a beautiful story, almost perfect, that no one else was able to find: It was all a misunderstanding, everything is perfect.

b/ Well, it seems that this call has changed something. Shock-waves looks familiar?

c/ I am in Europe, I am European (not Asiatic, like Putin)... Sorry, what is my opinion? Where is that "general opinion"? "...to protect our interests." You've got that right. (Ukraine's interests are and will be a side effect.)

d/ Yes, in the battlefield, exhaustion, like Iran in the Iraq-Iran War. Ukraine already got the desertions, a future without troops.

Reading European news... I read about Pishane, Ukrainian gains. What about Ukrainian losses (Novosilka, Novoocheretubate, Konstiantinopil, Ulakli, Berezsivka, Sherbinivka, Stupochki and across the Oskil)? An informed (general) opinion?
 

Fredled

Active Member
rsemmes said:
Let's see, a youtuber, asking for money, for Ukraine
Xavier Tytelman is not only a youtuber. He is a former French Navy Air Force pilot. He did many reportings on aircraft and military technology. Now he is one of the very few, if not the only, to have access to the front line. Not 10km behind the front line, but to the last trench before the Russian lines. He knows personally several french speaking volunteers fighting there. He spends a lot of time in Ukraine. I think that half of his time is spent there. Maybe more.
Of course he is pro Ukrainian, That's why he is allowed to visit areas and speak to person no journalist are allowed to. He is the foreigner with the best knowledge of the Ukrainian side. Too bad there is no translation in english.

You can think that all of this is fake. But he would have been exposed long ago if it was. When scenes or interviews are staged, it's visible. You can fool once or twice but you can't fool everyone all the time every week for three years.

rsemmes said:
b/ Well, it seems that this call has changed something. Shock-waves looks familiar?
Shock waves caused by flying bombs and the murder of Ukrainian soldiers are still as numerous as before the phone call. So, IMO, it didn't change anything.
Putin hasn't moved a hair.

rsemmes said:
I am in Europe, I am European (not Asiatic, like Putin)... Sorry, what is my opinion? Where is that "general opinion"? "...
During all my life, I have never heard so much drum beat about increasing military spending. Many voices in Europe are saying that Trump is right when he said that we spent too little for defense. But we didn't wait for Trump to understand that. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine was a cold shower for Europeans nations. We didn't feel like that even during the Blakan War.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kursk area.

Russian forces have advanced into Sverdlikovo, and taken chunks of the fields around it. Currently this is the most present threat to Ukraine's MSR into Sudzha. In the east Ukraine pushed towards Ulanok but lost many vehicles. They initially captured the villages of Cherkasskaya Konopel'ka and Fanaseevka but Russia has recaptured Fanaseevka, and the area north-west of Ulanok after another Ukrainian attempt to break into Ulanok failed. Russian forces also re-entered Cherkasskaya Konopel'ka. At this point the attack appears to have failed. On the northern side Ukrainian forces have recaptured Kositsa.


A series of Russian wire-guide drone strikes in Kursk region, hitting a Leo-2A6, a Kamaz truck, and a Humvee (1-2nd links), a parked Bushmaster (3rd link), several Bradleys, a VAB, a couple of Humvees, a L-119 howitzer (4-5th links) and a T-64BV labeled as "mod'22" but I'm not sure what that means. The "mod '17" designation typically means the new ERA layout, thermal sights, and new comm and navigation gear.


A Ukrainian 2S3 Pion getting hit by a Russian drone. Why such a long range system is getting hit by a drone is unclear.


A pair of Ukrainian soldiers get hit at a bus stop in Kursk region by a Russian drone. Unclear if the bus ever came.


Russian National Guard drone strike on a Ukrainian AN/TPQ-48 counter-battery radar. The outcome is unclear. They also hit a Krab howitzer inside a covered shelter.


The Ukrainian push towards Ulanok has resulted in a flurry of footage of Ukrainian vehicles getting hit. We have a number of MRAPs, a VAB, an IFV of some sort (Marder maybe?), Wisent 1MC, T-64BV, IMR-2, Bergenpanzer 2, Strykers, Bradleys, Marders, and other vehicles not all of which can be easily identified. There is truly a mountain of footage, and I don't have a good count, but we're looking at 30+ Ukrainian vehicles hit, on par with Russia's rush on the Avdeevka refuse mound.


As part of the Russian mop-up of Ukrainian forces near Ulanok, we have a Biber tank bridgelayer, an AVLB, an M577, and an MRAP getting hit. The MRAP is stuck.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles near Ulanok, a MBT (T-72 I think), and what look like 3 maybe Mastiff MRAPs?


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian armored car (Kozak or Roshel Senator?) on the streets of Sudzha.


After a break we have more Russian Forpost or Orion-S strikes in Kursk region.


A series of Russian drone strikes in Sumy region hitting a Bradley with it's cannon removed (for maintenance?), a 2S22 Bogdana, a Humvee, and a truck.


Russian strike on a moving 2S1 in Sumy region.


Russian Iskander strike in Sumy region near Stetskovka, allegedly hitting a Ukrainian staging area. Iskander strikes on Ukrainian forces preparing to enter Kursk region are fairly common.


A rare Ukrainian Uragan getting hit in Sumy region near Yablonovka.


Another destroyed Stryker in Kursk region.


A destroyed Ukrainian T-72AV near Ol'govka.


We saw the fallen Bradley, now an M113 joins it, under the same bridge.


Russian forces with a captured M113, Kursk region. The vehicle is allegedly fully intact, with no clear reason for abandonment.


A damaged Russian BMP-2 with extra armor after battle in Kursk region. Allegedly the vehicle is still driveable despite the damage.


Russian 2S43 Mal'va in action, Kursk region.


Russian D-20 operations, by Akhmat fighters, Kursk region.


Russian Uragan-1 fires, Kursk region.


Russian 155th Marines with a Lancet catapult mounted in the back of a truck.


Ukrainian Abrams and Marder allegedly from the 47th Bde. I don't recall the 47th having Marders, but it's possible I'm misremembering. There's also a Pbv302, unit unknown.


Ukrainian truck hauling away a destoyed Humvee, Kursk region.


A Ukrainian CR-2 enters Kursk region.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kharkov area.

Russian forces have taken the No3 school in Volchansk.


Russian drones chases a M1117 APC and hits another parked in the trees near Kharkov.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian M113 and Humvee, Kharkov area.


Kupyansk area.

Russian forces continue to expand the Oskol crossing. In addition to Zapadnoe, Novomlynsk, and Dvurechnoe, the village of Figolevka was taken. Russian forces also took swathes of country-side around the area. It's clear that this bridgehead is not just an envelopment of Kupyansk but a bigger push to take the northern part of Kharkov region west of the Oskol. What's interesting is that Russian forces attacked across the border and across the Oskol river near the village of Topoli on the northern border near Oskol river. It appears the cross-border push was the fixing effort while the push across the river was the real attack. However it's been many days and other than a small foothold there's no evidence of any greater Russian presence. This while Russia's forces near Dvurechnoe are expanding the area of control steadily, raising questions about whether this matters.


Russian wire-guided drones strike a covered area hiding two AIFV-B-C25 and a Roshel Senator.


Russian forces hit a Ukrainian infantry squad and an M113, drones then hunt scattered survivors. This is allegedly an element staging for a counter-attack at Dvurechnoe.


Russian soldiers prep a Molniya-2 drone with thermobaric rockets and TM-62 mines for payload. Note they're packing extra plastic explosives into the TM-62 to enhance their damage.


Russian strike on the crossing near Kupyansk-Uzlovoy again.


A look at a Russian drone with limited self-guidance, the operator gets it onto the target, and the drone then follows it.


Oskol front.

Russian forces continue to expand the area of control around Makeevka.


A series of Russian strikes inside the village of Grekovka on the western outskirts of Lugansk region. They hit a couple of 2S1s, a BMP-1, and some other vehicles.


Around Terny Russian forces have taken most of Yampolovka and some of the fields east of it. They will soon be approaching Torskoe from the north. Ukrainian forces still hold two large gullies east of it, and Torskoe itself has proven difficult to enter in the past.


A look at a small patch of ground near Nevskoe, the village now under Russian control. There's a destroyed Ukrainian T-72M1 and M113, and a destroyed Russian T-90M.


Seversk salient.

Russian forces have inched westward in the ruins of Belogorovka. I don't know that this is particularly significant, control of the refuse mound remains disputed. On the whole this remains the most stable section of the front and Ukraine's defenses here have been the most successful ones.


Russian strike on what appears to be a Ukrainian artillery position, Seversk area.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Chasov Yar.

Russian forces have taken most of the mine complex and pushed through the woods south of Chasov Yar reaching the village of Stupochki.


Ukrainian Spartan APC and BMP-2 getting hit near Chasov Yar.


Ukrainian PzH-2000 getting hit near Fedorovka. We actually have clear footage for a change. According to CAST, it's only 8kms from the front line.


Russian Strela-10 firing on a Ukrainian drone near Chasov Yar.


Russian forces have built a 2km long corridor of nets from Artemovsk/Bakhmut to Chasov Yar.


Aerial footage of the ruins of Chasov Yar.


Russia hit the Mayskaya substation in Konstantinovka with FPV drones. As the front line moves closer to the town, likely we will see FPV drone strikes on logistics in the area as well.


Battle damage after a Russian strike on a storage facility in Konstantinovka. The town is effectively the rear hub for Ukrainian forces operating in Chasov Yar and north of Toretsk.


Toretsk.


Russian forces advance inside Scherbinovka and took all of Druzhba and Krymskoe, though the fate of the refuse mound there is unclear. Russian MoD officially declared Toretsk as taken, as usual this came some time after the defacto taking of the town.


Ukrainian MANPADS team shot down a Russian Su-25 near Toretsk. Reportedly the pilot escaped and the Mi-8 with the rescue team that showed up was attacked by FPV drones but got away. Russian use of Su-25s in this manner remains scarce and while the Su-25 can be effective CAS, it's very risky in the current environment.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian Oncilla north of Toretsk.


Ukrainian Oncilla armored car near Toretsk. The Oncilla is a license-copy of the Ukrainian Dozor-B.


Footage of the ruins of Toretsk.


Pokrovsk.

In this area of the front Russian advances on the flank initially stalled and then were driven back in a series of Ukrainian counter-attacks. Russia then resumed the push recapturing some areas, and advancing in others. On the western flank Ukrainian forces first counter-attacked into Zverovoe, then Peschanoe and then into Kotlin. At one point Ukrainian forces recaptured almost all of Zverovoe and most of Peschanoe, but they have been driven back on both villages with Russian forces recapturing both of them. In Kotlin the village remains contested with Ukrainian counter-attacks recapturing the eastern part and the northern outskirts. Russian forces hold the south-western part. In Udachnoe Russian forces advanced through the village now holding about a third of it. South of there Russian forces advanced through Serebryanoe, and into the village of Zaporozhye,and also deep west of Nadeevka through the fields, but in a narrow wedge. On the eastern flank after repeated unsuccessful attempts, Russian forces now hold road, the villages of Zelenoe Pole, Baranovka, Vodyanoe Drugoe, and Berezovka. They also grabbed the fields east of Yelizavetovka, squeezing Ukrainian positions in that village from both sides. Note Vodyanoe Drugoe was captured by Russia, recaptured by Ukraine and then recaptured by Russia. After the second taking, Russian forces pushed onward taking Berezovka.


A drone-on-drone strike, Duke Vandal taking out a Lyut' UGV near Pokrovsk. So far these are exceptions but both sides now have UGV weapon platforms in regular use.


Ukrainian Bradley hits a landmine near Pokrovsk.


Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian retranslators set up in tall apartments in Pokrovsk.


Russian Molniya-2 drone flying somewhere, near Pokrovsk.


Our first confirmation of a destroyed Russian TOS-2 thermobaric MLRS.


Destroyed Russian civilian cars converted into buggies and used for something near the front line.


Two destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, a rare M1117 Guardian and a Kozak armored car near Pokrovsk.


A destroyed Ukrainian Dingo MRAP near Pokrovsk.


Ukrainian wire-guided drones have started showing up near Pokrovsk.


Reportedly a Ukrainian Lt. Colonel from the 111th TerDefBde was killed near Pokrovsk.


A vintage Russian BM-27 near Pokrovsk.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kurakhovo.

Russian forces have taken either all or almost all of Andreevka. Russian forces then broke into Ulakly from the south, effective closing the cauldron. It's unclear if any substantial Ukrainian forces were caught in this, or if they managed to pull back in time. With the collapse of the pocket, Russian forces are now set to meet in Konstantinopol'.


Russian Grad fires in support of action near Ulakly. Note Grad barrages like these have become rare.


A series of Russian drone strikes on buildings in Ulakly, in preparation for the Russian push into the village.


Ukrainian Humvee hit near Ulakly.


Russian drone strike hit a Ukrainian T-72EA near Bogatyr'.


Ukrainian M113 hit near Konstantinopol'.


Russian strike on allegedly a Ukrainian UAV team near Dachnoe. The van does imply that this might be case, Ukrainian UAV teams have been seen using non-military vehicles before.


Ukrainian BMP getting hit west of Kurakhovo.


Russian soldiers pose with a captured BOV APC near Sontsovka.


Apparently two groups of 3 Ukrainian POWs taken in Dachnoe.


A destroyed Ukrainian M109 near Dal'nee. The graffiti is from Russia's 255th MRRgt.


Velikaya Novoselka.


Russian forces have begun pushing northwards out of Velikaya Novoselka and the positions west of it. To the north they crossed the river into Novoocheretovatoe and pushed northward west of Razdol'noe. to the west Russian forces have pushed across the road into the fields to the west and taken the village of Novoselka.


Russian drone drops on a Ukrainian pickup near Velikaya Novoselka.


Russian forces have captured a pair of Ukrainian BMP-1 decoys near Velikaya Novoselka.


Zaporozhye.


Ukraine attempted an attack at Kamenskoe, on the shore of the Dnepr, but the attack appears to have failed. No movement of the front line is reported by the usual sources. We have a destroyed M113, pickup truck, and two MBTs getting hit, but their fate is unclear.


Russian Lancet strike on allegedly a 2S22 Bogdana. It's hard to make out what it is, but it looks like a military truck of some sort.


Ukrainian drones hit Russian decoys in the form of Buk-M2 and M3 SAMs.


Allegedly Ukraine hit an International Atomic Energy Angency column leaving the Zaporozhskaya NPP. It was allegedly a combination of drone strikes, mortar and artillery shelling. The shelling took place near the village of Kamenskoe (I think they mean Kamyanka-Dneprovskaya west of Energodar).


Dnepr front.


Ukraine's 72nd Mech training in Kherson region, with a BTR-80 in a drone cage. This unit took heavy losses at Ugledar and is likely at the stage of getting refitted and provided fresh recruits. There are some speculations it may get converted into a Coastal Defense Bde and made part of Ukraine's Marine Corps.


Russian Orlan operations on the Dnepr.


Russian Msta-S and Giatsint-B on the Dnepr.

 
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