The OPV don't need to be mega armed. Realistically that isn't what they are for. They are for doing EEZ type stuff, their opposition is with civilian commercial/pirate ships. One of the great powers Australia has is good relations in the neighborhood and the ability to operate jointly with other forces in their waters. Having a OPV supports that. You stick Tomahawks and Sm6 on it, and now you have a war machine, which is then terrible at pulling over fishing boats, but also would be seen as an escalatory deployment into a region that is sensitive. The argument I have with the OPV is how many we need the priority and the focus, not really how heavily armed they need to be. As a war machine, an upgunned OPV is terrible at all its jobs.
Too bold IMO. They aren't really giving any room for a decision. I note that while the commonwealth can shut up the commercial people involved, they can't really shut up the Japanese government. The fact that the usually reserved and quiet Japanese government is saying all these things on record, shows you how they view the project. This is going to be the execution of Abes dream of a Australia-Japan project that ties the two together.
I have heard the Japanese government is totally committed to winning it. I'm not even sure they would take no for an answer. They have a real don't give up and don't give in with relation to this project. It is so, very much more than just a dozen small frigates. Japanese diplomacy sees it as essential for Japan-US relations and Japan-China relations and the future security and sovereignty and security of Japan. Which is why the Japanese are prioritising the RAN over their own defence force. A strong tangible alliance with Australia is worth more than two dozen destroyers.
Not because we have the most powerful defence force, but because of our influence and connection to the USA military and civilian leadership. Our capabilities with the Chinese is also noteworthy, as Australia has proven itself surprisingly resilient against Chinese economic coercion. Australia has proven it can work, and work well in a Trump world. While Canada is being threatened with tariffs and a possible invasion, NATO with a war with its biggest member over greenland, Australia stands up as a US ally with no peer. Able to stand right next to the US, but also seemingly fairly invisible when the US starts throwing mud. While resilient against Chinese pressure, but also US pressures.
It's so generous as to require deep and complete review. Australia should be always skeptical when it comes to defence, even with allies and friends. Also, there is no need for an urgently fast decision from Australia, because Japan is suppose to be building them anyway for herself. An early yes from Australia might then see Japan curtail her side of the program, and Australia yet carries the can for another orphaned development.
We have acquired a lot of defence systems and platforms over the years, who have all underdelivered on future support from the parent country/entity. I don't think that is likely with the case with Japan, but it is a big fear Australia has, particularly when dealing with non-US projects. Tiger, Hobarts, LHD, NH90, were all starved of logistics and technical development by their parent nation operators.
Also there is an Australian federal election coming up. And such a large big announcement needs to be timed perfectly.
- That the government is still committed to hunter and other existing projects.
- That defence is an increasingly important priority that can't be waylaid by the radical peacenik hippies. Both within labor and the Greens and independents, who labor and Liberal are fighting in key seats. This is one where Labor and Liberals are absolutely lock step in defence. Their common enemy is independants and greens. It honestly matters more that Labor and Liberals win seats and the independents and Greens don't - from a defence point of view. (a few exceptions, Katter for eg)
The fact that Donald Trump is back in power, America is at increasingly dramatically erratic and dysfunctional levels, that there are multiple active wars happening, means that Australians are genuinely worried about defence, so defence announcements are now universal vote winners, not vote killers. They promote party unity, not party division.
BTW there would be tremendous pressure on who ever wins, to perform. Like way above expectations, which is already sky high. They better be building these ships 28 hrs a day, 9 days a week 400 days a year. Quality must be magnificent, in every way. The performance and quality better be *WAY* above and the price I believe will be fixed and aggressive.
Everyone is going to be watching this, including the US and China (but also the koreans, the Germans all the rivals and customers etc). They better have a build program that is so good it impresses the US, and outrightly annoys or shakes China. I don't just mean the Japanese part of the build either. Japan is going to have to invade Western Australia and make things happen there locally on the ground. They won't be able to just hire a few local floaters who interview well, and bring over a CEO team from Japan and hope something happens. (
*Cough Cough Attack class - Naval*) They are going to need resources and capable people local and from Japan. They are going to need political will and support. They are going to need to support local SME and local supply. This needs to be a strategic focus like Ford and General motors were for America in Australia. If war happens, this place needs to function...
Honestly I think the Germans are there as benchmarks and to keep things from getting silly. They can be used to create a realistic benchmark before people on the other two sides have a project that gets overtly ambitious. They are excellent for that role. Also those Germans go back to Germany and tell their political leadership what is happening in the Asia Pacific and on this project. I hope they go back and literally, physically, slap their political masters, tell them things are happening, and that Germany and Europe is living in their own fantasy bubble and are being left behind and irrelevant.
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