Russia - General Discussion.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Sure,
AS tak berani ungkapkan wahana militernya yang hancur di Ukraina
Pemerintah Amerika Serikat menyatakan belum siap memberitahukan seberapa banyak sistem persenjataannya yang diberikan kepada Ukraina yang rusak di medan ...
www.antaranews.com
That's two example from Indian and Indonesian media on the "tones" on the local medias of Western weapons supposedly superiority toward Russian ones in Ukrainian battlefield. The tones is questioning the Western armaments superiority over Russian ones. The Indonesian ones is close to 'cynicism' on the US not 'dare' to acknowledge their weapons destroyed in Ukraine.
This is why I said this in my post:
Changin perception in local media can reflect changing perception officialy, especially in Global South. I believe that related with Rosoboron coming back to Global South defense markets contracts.
You are right the claim from Rosoboron of USD 55 Bio is on contract and not on delivery yet. However it is shown how Rosoboron begin regain some trusts on their traditional buyers in Global South.
Whether they can deliver to those contracts is another story that need to be seen.
That's why in my Post I stated that loosing Chinese and Indian market will leave gaps that Rosoboron can't hope to fill from others customers in Global South. Whether Rosoboron still able to be continue relevant and regain their market shares in those two market is the big question on Russian MIC future on regaining their export shares in Global market.
China MIC is already become more productive then Russian ones, and Russian MIC seems understand the games change to working on with Chinese MIC on design and tech cooperation. While India administration demands more on made in India supply from their own MIC. Thus I see Russian also begin to switch as parts suppliers to Indian ones as example in SU-30 MKI, T-90M and Indian Frigates and Destroyers programs.
Personally I see in those both markets, Russian MIC has to change their approach from end products suppliers to parts suppliers in the production chain ecosystems, if they still want to be relevant in India and China defense markets.
Armaments market is the second Russian export after commodities. Despite continues sanctions by West on Russian commodities including recent increase ones toward 'Grey' tankers fleet. Some financial analysts still believe Russian, India and China and others customers in Asia will sort it out, as commodities like hydrocarbons is finite in supply. Middle East suppliers now increasing their prices taking advantage of those sanctions to tankers. Which shown why Russian supply will always going to find markets in Global South that need cheaper hydrocarbons.
However whether the similar regain markets in Global South defense markets can also be done by Rosoboron, is still the question. Russia need that to supplement their export income, and continue to find market for the capacity build up of their MIC after the War. That's going to soften economic landing from War Economic later on.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Hard to see how Russia can regain marketshare wrt military sales. China has R&D funding that Russia can't even begin to match. Efficient and modern manufacturing facilities, a huge labour pool, and likely very generous financing terms will be huge impediments for Russia. You can bet Russian oligarchs will only be investing in their MIC via a gun pointed at their head.
I would note that Indonesia does not have Russian tanks in its inventory it does have of course some Russian fighter aircraft was there an assessment of the Russian tanks on offerSure,
AS tak berani ungkapkan wahana militernya yang hancur di Ukraina
Pemerintah Amerika Serikat menyatakan belum siap memberitahukan seberapa banyak sistem persenjataannya yang diberikan kepada Ukraina yang rusak di medan ...
That's two example from Indian and Indonesian media on the "tones" on the local medias of Western weapons supposedly superiority toward Russian ones in Ukrainian battlefield. The tones is questioning the Western armaments superiority over Russian ones. The Indonesian ones is close to 'cynicism' on the US not 'dare' to acknowledge their weapons destroyed in Ukraine.
This is why I said this in my post:
Changin perception in local media can reflect changing perception officialy, especially in Global South. I believe that related with Rosoboron coming back to Global South defense markets contracts.
You are right the claim from Rosoboron of USD 55 Bio is on contract and not on delivery yet. However it is shown how Rosoboron begin regain some trusts on their traditional buyers in Global South.
Whether they can deliver to those contracts is another story that need to be seen.
That's why in my Post I stated that loosing Chinese and Indian market will leave gaps that Rosoboron can't hope to fill from others customers in Global South. Whether Rosoboron still able to be continue relevant and regain their market shares in those two market is the big question on Russian MIC future on regaining their export shares in Global market.
China MIC is already become more productive then Russian ones, and Russian MIC seems understand the games change to working on with Chinese MIC on design and tech cooperation. While India administration demands more on made in India supply from their own MIC. Thus I see Russian also begin to switch as parts suppliers to Indian ones as example in SU-30 MKI, T-90M and Indian Frigates and Destroyers programs.
Personally I see in those both markets, Russian MIC has to change their approach from end products suppliers to parts suppliers in the production chain ecosystems, if they still want to be relevant in India and China defense markets.
Armaments market is the second Russian export after commodities. Despite continues sanctions by West on Russian commodities including recent increase ones toward 'Grey' tankers fleet. Some financial analysts still believe Russian, India and China and others customers in Asia will sort it out, as commodities like hydrocarbons is finite in supply. Middle East suppliers now increasing their prices taking advantage of those sanctions to tankers. Which shown why Russian supply will always going to find markets in Global South that need cheaper hydrocarbons.
However whether the similar regain markets in Global South defense markets can also be done by Rosoboron, is still the question. Russia need that to supplement their export income, and continue to find market for the capacity build up of their MIC after the War. That's going to soften economic landing from War Economic later on.
Indonesian Army
Indepth coverage of the tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and utility / support vehicles available to the aerial fighting forces of the country of Indonesia.
www.warpowerindonesia.com
Ananda
The Bunker Group
With regard to China, they have to change and swallow their pride. Russia use to think China as customer, now they have to treat them as partner. They can't afford to have China as main competition, especially on present Geopolitics. So far I also see China did not want Russia industry goes under, as China still need relatively strong Russia.
That's why I said for China and even India markets, Russia MIC has to change their role from end products suppliers to parts suppliers in industrial supply chains.
I don't see that way, remember most Russian MIC still state owned. However their oligarchs become willing part in MIC business as they also see that that's where most money being invested now by government. It is after all already entering War Economy.
The Army does not use Russian Tanks, The Marines does. So far further order for Marines and AF being hold due to CAATSA. However the options remain. Still Indonesia after 70's are more Western armament users then Russian ones.
However perception in media can reflect perception in public. For that as Indonesia example, the move from Western sales lobby for Indonesia to ditch their Flankers are also being delayed, as Indonesia already decided to do MLU on those Flankers. This is asside matter of financial, politics, but also can be influenced by public perception. Media perception always playing on create public perception especially in the time of social media.
The two example I gave shown some changing tones on Western armament superiority in Ukraine by Global South nations. One is major Russian armament user, the other minor Russia armament users. However the tones increasingly shown similarities.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
There's enough studies how media and social media can change or influence official policy. Social media in Indonesia increasingly become quite influencing on officials policy. Social media influencers in elections does not happen in US only for example. It is happening globally.
However Indonesia will not going to be big users of Russia armaments. Still public perception can make that it is still open to continue using Russian armaments. If that can happen with minor users like Indonesia, and the effects can be bigger with traditional major users like India.
However Indonesia will not going to be big users of Russia armaments. Still public perception can make that it is still open to continue using Russian armaments. If that can happen with minor users like Indonesia, and the effects can be bigger with traditional major users like India.
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Market share as percentage or market share as volume? Defense spending is going to increase world wide. I think Russia can get back up to ~15 bln USD in annual defense exports post-war. Maybe even higher. It will be a smaller total percentage share of the world market, but Russia will still be making money comparable to what they were making before the war. I don't think many will line up to purchase BMP-3s or BTR-82As, but Russian MRAPs, loitering munitions, combat jets, missiles, SAMs, all will still be relevant.
Do they still use their PT-76s? I thought they replaced the role with the BMP-3, with it's 100mm gun.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
The Intention is for all PT-76 to be replace by BMP-3 as also BTR-50 being replace by APC variance of BMP-3. The war in Ukraine and CAATSA hold that, thus only partial replacement of PT-76 happen. The Nimda Upgrade PT-76 with 90mm gun still being use, while all non upgrade PT-76 with original gun being replace by BMP-3.
Rumours talk that the Marines still try to get more BMP-3, while agree BTR-50 to be replace by Non Russian amphibious tracked vehicle. Marines more inclined using Russian or East Euro origin (like from Serbia) armaments. While Army more Western minded.
Yes but is there a qualified body that assesses acquisitions to advise the government and defence
Ananda
The Bunker Group
This agency KKIP (Committee for Defense Industry Policy) that advise President on defense industry and defense procurement. I and other Indonesian members in Indonesian thread already talk how politics deemed Indonesian procurement more then actual defense users preference.
This is the agency that officially supervise Defense procurement has to benefits local MIC. Just like India, Indonesia also politically aim to strengthen Made in Indonesia defense items. That's also assessment on politics factions support on procurement, in which public opinion come to play. Off course it is unofficial, but public opinion more and more increase influence in Indonesian politics. That's why sales lobby in Indonesia, increasingly rely on public perception.
I believe similar situation happen in India and other Global South, especially those that less 'authoriterian'.
It would be interesting to compare how other countries do this e.g. identify the need open tendering program ,assess the applicants offering, present to government those applicants that have met criteria if criteria includes a role in local manufacturing choices ,a customer service from the tendering company and a good supply chain, decisions can become very close, at the same time the system must be robust against unethical practices
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Realistically base on Ethical and Transparency practices in developed nations (especially Northern Euro zone), what Ethical practices in most Global South can be at best classified as 'Grey' Area. For that suppliers lobby from Russia, China and even some NATO nations can have more flexibility in Global South then US or Northern Euro players.
This is why I believe Russian still have better chances to regain 'political' lobbies in defense export on their traditional markets. It is the markets they already know well how to play with. Politics lobbies always play more in Global South. In that part of lobbies games includes how to build public perception in some markets.
This is why I believe Russian still have better chances to regain 'political' lobbies in defense export on their traditional markets. It is the markets they already know well how to play with. Politics lobbies always play more in Global South. In that part of lobbies games includes how to build public perception in some markets.
Wow brilliant answer you can't support your statement clearly.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
To useless troll like you, why bothers. I only answer to others with serious track record questions.
You won't provide evidence, that's up to you.
I am only a troll to you because I disagree with you or question you and you don't like that.