6th Generation Fighters Projects

[koxinga]

An interesting podcast, with Robert Wall, Steve Trimble, Tony Osborne and Graham Warwick. This comment by Graham is insightful

It's not a fighter. So I talked to Darrell Cummings who was the chief configuration designer on the YF-23, and there are many features of that airplane, of both airplanes that kind of come from that thing. And he pointed out that inlet above the airplane doesn't function above 10 degrees of angle of attack. It's not a fighter. As soon as you pitch that airplane up, that inlet is ineffective. I strongly suspect that inlet closes down in cruise and then you are completely featureless, essentially a featureless upper surface if you're going to go be a penetrating counter air type fighter. Maturity, here's the thing. The more you look at the Chengdu airplane, the less advanced it looks, that's kind of a weird thing to say, but there are some aspects to this airplane that are very, very fifth or four and a half generation in a fifth stroke, sixth-generation shape.

Podcast: Dissecting China's New Combat Aircraft Designs | Aviation Week Network

Aviation Week editors unpack the design details of two new Chinese combat aircraft and what makes them so odd.

aviationweek.com

 

[hauritz]

Gonna put it up here for the time being although I am unclear if this is considered 6th generation. But yeah, the design carries all the 6th gen characteristics (tailless design, diamond shaped).

There is also a J-20 chase plane which gives a perspective / relative comparison in terms of size.

Video: x.com

China’s Sixth-Generation Fighter Jet Allegedly Takes First Flight

Speculative details on design and capabilities emerge as China enters race for aerial supremacy with U.S.

www.defensemirror.com

Why have the Chinese made so little effort to hide the development of this aircraft?
My guess is that they are sending a message. Exactly what that message is is a little unclear. Perhaps it is nothing more than a bit of a public flex to show the rest of the world what they are capable of.

The reality is that most of the military hardware developed by China still falls well short of the western technology they often openly copy. Also it might backfire on them if it forces the US to reinstate and even accelerate the manned part of the NGAD program.

 

[John Fedup]

Why have the Chinese made so little effort to hide the development of this aircraft?
My guess is that they are sending a message. Exactly what that message is is a little unclear. Perhaps it is nothing more than a bit of a public flex to show the rest of the world what they are capable of.

The reality is that most of the military hardware developed by China still falls well short of the western technology they often openly copy. Also it might backfire on them if it forces the US to reinstate and even accelerate the manned part of the NGAD program.

I don’t know the relative difference between Chinese and Western aviation kit accept that the West still enjoys a significant advantage wrt jet engine technology (design, material science, and manufacturing techniques). What you must realize about China is their huge financial resources (no whining electorate to worry about either) and a very large pool of scientists and engineers), two items the US is short on. Then add in the rare earth resources. Not a favourable situation for the West long term although Chinese demographic issues might slow them up eventually.

 

[Terran]

Why have the Chinese made so little effort to hide the development of this aircraft?

Secret weapons aren’t really a thing, especially if they are something that is meant for large scale use. The Chinese want to send a message to the U.S. and Asia that they are the Rising Dragon and it’s their time. That everyone better fall in line as they have the “better system”. That the Centuries of humiliation are over and the Empire of the Sky is back. This is meant to push America and its allies to reconsider their positions and policies in the South China Sea as they want to show a strong conventional military capability.

However it’s still a developmental platform. With questionable trades to get to the range. It’s has had a Mig 25 effect but not enough of one. Because it’s quickly been dissected as to what it should be capable of and not.

 

[John Fedup]

Secret weapons aren’t really a thing, especially if they are something that is meant for large scale use. The Chinese want to send a message to the U.S. and Asia that they are the Rising Dragon and it’s their time. That everyone better fall in line as they have the “better system”. That the Centuries of humiliation are over and the Empire of the Sky is back. This is meant to push America and its allies to reconsider their positions and policies in the South China Sea as they want to show a strong conventional military capability.

However it’s still a developmental platform. With questionable trades to get to the range. It’s has had a Mig 25 effect but not enough of one. Because it’s quickly been dissected as to what it should be capable of and not.

They have made public two 6th gen jets and it is fair to say we really don’t know if the performance capabilities are significantly better than the J-20. Public announcements certainly send the rising China message. Nevertheless there could be hidden designs that might be more concerning.

 

[Terran]

They have made public two 6th gen jets and it is fair to say we really don’t know if the performance capabilities are significantly better than the J-20. Public announcements certainly send the rising China message. Nevertheless there could be hidden designs that might be more concerning.

On the same day they flew, the three engine fighter a delta wing two engine fighter, a carrier AEW and a heavy AWACS based off their Y20. This was just a short time after they showed off the J35 fighter at their main air show. So they have been open on what they are working on.
They have a known H20 bomber but it’s still vapor. The thing about secret weapons is it’s a terrible idea in practice. Mega weapons protects especially conventional ones are meant to include a degree of deterrence. Nuclear programs are an implicit threat. Bombers like B21 B2 a message that range isn’t an issue and a bomb can knock down your door without warning. Fighters like F22 and F35 that even a significant amount of ground and air based air defense is only a speed bump.
The only reason these types and the F117 were kept secret was the shaping they used could be used to gage details on their radar signatures and how they would have preformed in the skies.
For an aircraft to exist entirely in the black would be a system where the weapon isn’t the aircraft but what comes from it. The U2, A12/SR71 were intelligence aircraft they didn’t kill; they gathered knowledge. The Stealth Blackhawk isn’t a weapon the commandos who fast rope from it are.

 

[koxinga]

They have made public two 6th gen jets and it is fair to say we really don’t know if the performance capabilities are significantly better than the J-20. Public announcements certainly send the rising China message. Nevertheless there could be hidden designs that might be more concerning.

What is concerning is the affordability of future Western platforms. If we assume that these new platforms are still behind GCAP/NGAD, the gap is unlikely a massive, generational jump. So the question is how many can the West buy?

The Chinese might well conclude that trying to match on a capability level to be uneconomical (e.g USD 300+ million for an NGAD), and fund two units of a slightly lesser capabilities. They might not be looking for parity or overmatch in terms of 1 to 1 in the first place.

Why? RD&T in Western military seems to be gone up significantly in the last few decades. It's like a snake eating itself. To justify high RD&T, whatever delivered has to have all the bells and whistles (gold plating), because there is a question whether having a long production run is possible (to spread the cost).

 

[koxinga]

Instead of Chinese news, here's some US ones, which echos my earlier comment re RD&T cost of Western programs.

The Americans insist they are still ahead "meaningfully" in terms of capabilities, but may end up with fewer numbers, making up the difference with CCA. Is that strategy sufficient against a peer opponent with slightly inferior capabilities, but more numbers? Only time will tell.

$20 Billion Price Tag To Complete Development Of USAF's Next Generation Fighter (Updated)

Investing more in long-range strike, procuring a cheaper 'drone controller' aircraft, or a mix of F-35s and drones are alternatives.

www.twz.com

 

[John Fedup]

@koxinga Yes, the cost issue is a big concern. Hopefully experts have some kind of calculus which helps sorts the the need for exotic capabilities, kinematic performance, sustainability, and cost concerns to determine quantity. I am not optimistic.

See my post (#7) in the Unmanned and autonomous air vehicle thread. It references some concerns about NGAD costs and also the potential conflicts between vendors and programs.

Some of the planned missions for NGAD probably can be performed with B-21s so these two programs may end up competing for funds (more B-21s and fewer NGADs). NGAD (and other frontline fighters) will need a stealthy tanker, another expensive project. Perhaps an expanded number MQ-25s together with KC-46s (and possibly MRTTs) would be a more affordable option for the Pacific theatre.