The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I will try to do an update tomorrow, for now it seems Russia has begun assaults on Gornyak and Selidovo simultaneously. This might be intentionally so, to limit Ukraine's ability to throw reserves into either one. Each one is left with a single MSR under Russian artillery fire along a substantial portion, with Selidovo even with range of direct-fire weapons. In a way the assault on Gornyak is a result of Russia's failure to envelop the locale. So far it does appear Russia has taken a chunk of the northern part of town and seized a hill that overlooks the town from the east. Lastly Russian forces have attempted an attack on Zoryanoe, east of Gornyak, the results of which are not yet clear (rather sources disagree some stating Russia has taken the village, a de-facto suburb of Gornyak, while others state it's still contested). I think the fall of Gornyak, a likely eventuality, Russia will begin to move on Kurakhovo. In my last update I mentioned how Russian troops in Maksimil'yanovka were still some distance away, but since then that has also changed. Not only did Russia take all of Maksimil'yanovka but also the heights south of the village. There has been movement in other areas, but this southern direction towards Kurakhovo seems to still be the main effort.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It will br capitulation, not negotiation. You can have a strategy only when you have the fire power to apply your strategy. Ukraine needs much more than what the West is giving them.

No matter how non-sensical Zelensky's Victory Plan was, neither Ukraine nor their allies have much choice as long as Putin is bombing Ukraine and assaulting the fornt line.
I think that depends on how long Ukraine waits to face the music and starts to figure out what it's willing to give up. The longer Ukraine waits the bigger the chance that it will be a capitulation. The sooner they do it the more credibility they have to threaten continued resistance. One of the few things Ukraine can offer Russia is a cheaper way to achieve Russia's goals.

Putin is not fighting Ukraine to prevent them to join NATO. He wants to prevent Ukraine to join NATO to be able to fight Ukraine, and eventually control Ukraine or part of it.

Putin made clear that if NATO troops went into Ukraine, they will be destroyed. He will attack Ukraine regardless it's in NATO, it's invited into NATO or if NATO is invited into Ukraine. He will be glad to eliminate NATO troops if he has a chance. Only a very large NATO presence would work as "non nuclear detterent".
I disagree with the former. I do think he wants to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. But I do agree with the latter, I think that a small or moderate NATO presence won't stop Putin. Quite the opposite I think Russia would go out of it's way to strike any NATO presence in Ukraine as hard as possible.

I think that the strategy of the West in Ukraine is to wait for Russia to give up out of exhaustion instead of giving the weapons necessary for a quick defeat. The reason is that they fear a nuclear retaliation in the latter case. The West don't want the Russian defeat to be the result of their action but the result of the own Russian army failure to continue the war. That's why they are dosing the medecine with apothecary carefullness.
At the same time, I think that everybody knows that defeating Russia by attrition is irrealistical given the recent decision by the Kremlin. But they have no choice because the risk of a nuclear attack is to serious to be ignored.
It's not because Putin has not pressed the button despite us crossing several red lines, that the next time he won't.
I think this is a very generous reading of the NATO/EU approach to Ukraine. I certainly agree that some within NATO/EU think this way but others are just along for the ride, and some are just making decisions based on what they're willing to spend rather than what they're trying to accomplish. I certainly don't think the overall level of military aid is dosed carefully. Look at the mountains of surplus armored vehicles and artillery from all over Europe that Ukraine got in '22-'23. Many thousands of armored vehicles were delivered in a 12-month period. Now it's more like hundreds in a 12-month period. Ukraine doesn't need more armored vehicles and artillery pieces? Delivering more will cross some imaginary red line and therefore must be carefully avoided? Carefully dosed?

This reading also ignores the nasty price to Ukraine for choosing this approach. Ukraine has already suffered horrible demographic damage from this war. This is only getting worse, and there is every chance that Russia won't give up out of exhaustion because Russia isn't exhausted.

The real problem of course is not the strategy of the West in Ukraine but the strategy of Ukraine in Ukraine. How do they hope to win and what outcome constitutes a realistic victory under present conditions? Ukrainian statehood isn't really on the line currently, but it could become so again if the war takes a really bad turn. Regaining Crimea or the Donbas seems fairly unrealistic, same for Zaporozhye and Kherson areas still under Russia. Even as Zelensky talks about the '91 borders and not giving up territory, Russia continue to push in Kharkov region from the east, and is still steadily gaining ground in the Donbas. Despite the October slow-down Russia is still advancing much faster then it was a mere 6 months ago, and if the current attacks on Selidovo and Gornyak succeed, they could accelerate again. Meanwhile Ukrainian infrastructure continues to get pummeled regularly, and "winter is coming". So what's the strategy? The peace summit idea clearly hasn't worked, and it wasn't a great one to begin with, get the rest of the world to pressure Russia into giving up. The rest of the world isn't that interested and Russia isn't likely to listen. The Kursk push has not only failed, it backfired. Another '23 style offensive is not really possible. What's the plan?
 

Fredled

Active Member
Russians execute another two captured Ukrainian soldiers near Selydove
This is a new development. I think it's done by the decision of the platoon leaders or soldiers themselves, without hierarchy's approval. However the hierarchy didn't condemn this and the Russian MoD didn't even denied that it happened.
The Russian are still exchanging prisoners Ukrainians took from the Kursk Region. Another 95 Ukrainain soldiers were freed recently. Many of these soldiers are from the legendary Azovstahl defenders. They are the most valuable PoW for Ukraine because they represent the heroic resistance against the invader. It's possible that Russian soldiers execute the best Ukrainian fighters to avoid that to happen in the future. Some of the executed soldiers were drone operators. So it could be a vengeance for those they killed in this case.

Lloyd Austin made an announced visit to Kiev. The following aid package announced later is impressive: Himars rockets, shells of all callibers, anti-tank weapons, and, form other sources, and I heard also of 2000 Humvees. The package is worth $400 million. US support is not being reduced as we can see.

Tu22 Boomber pilot killed with a hammer: Just retribution.
Ukraine’s defense intelligence said:
On the morning of October 20, Golenkov's body was found in an apple orchard in the village of Suponevo outside Bryansk, with multiple head injuries, “likely caused by a hammer”, the HUR defence intelligence agency noted, warning of a “just retribution” coming for every war crime committed.

Golenkov was a pilot with the 52nd heavy bomber aviation regiment of the Russian Aerospace Force (military unit 33310), based at the Shaykovka airfield, a home for Tu-22M3 bombers.

He is responsible for missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, including the strike that hit the Amstor shopping mall in Kremenchuk where nearly a thousand people were shopping at the time of the attack. Twenty-two people were killed in the strike, and dozens were injured.

Golenkov is also complicit in a missile attack that hit an apartment block in the city of Dnipro on January 14, 2023, where 46 people died, including six children.
I rare assassination of an air force pilot. The last time I remember it was when they shot down a pilot in his car while he crossed the air base shlagbaum more than a year ago, I think. It seems not easy to hit them.
The fact that this one was not killed by a handgun with a silencer let me think that they hired locals to do the job.

Ukrinform reported Russian army loses another 1,710 soldiers in Ukraine in the past day.
I rarely report this since it's regarded as garbage here. Nevertheless the number surprised me. It's 600 more than they report usually. A few days ago they reported 1500. The number of tanks and armoured vehicles is alaso impressive.
While these numbers are certainly inflated, it still reflects an increase in Russian losses.

On the other hand, there were You Tube rumours that Ukrainians destroyed scores of Russian war planes. Yet, Ukrainform never mentioned this. The number of destroyed plane that they reports haven't changed since the last Ice Age or something.

Three KAB glide bombs on Kharkiv's didtrict.
This is only three out of dozen dropped every day. Ukrinform usually reports only those falling on civilian targets.


Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili said:
I’d like to address Volodymyr Zelensky - from here, on your behalf – and tell him: we know that he is fighting for us and will prevail. And we will enter Europe together.
link
It's very unlikely that Georgia will join the EU at the same time as Ukraine, or that they will ever do.
The point is that Georgia is a strong ally of Ukraine in this war and share common issues.

The new French foreign minister visited the front line in Ukraine. Support for Ukraine is going to last.

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Feanor said:
The longer Ukraine waits the bigger the chance that it will be a capitulation.
I don;t understand the logic of this sentence: The sooner the capitulation, the lesser the chance of capitulation?????

Feanor said:
The sooner they do it the more credibility they have to threaten continued resistance.
That makes more sens. Talks with Putin will probably result in continued Ukrainian resistance.

Feanor said:
One of the few things Ukraine can offer Russia is a cheaper way to achieve Russia's goals.
Sure they could. Like one of the few things Israel can offer to Iran and Hamas is to dismantle the state of Israel. LOL.

Feanor said:
I certainly don't think the overall level of military aid is dosed carefully. Look at the mountains of surplus armored vehicles and artillery from all over Europe that Ukraine got in '22-'23.
I was talking about long range strike capanilities.
But even armoured vehicles were dose carefully at the beginning. For half a year in 2022, delivering tanks was considered a dangerous red line.

Feanor said:
The real problem of course is not the strategy of the West in Ukraine but the strategy of Ukraine in Ukraine. How do they hope to win and what outcome constitutes a realistic victory under present conditions?
And what would you suggest? Giving in into Putin's demands? That's even less realistic than retaking the Donbas and Crimea because Putin's demands are infinite. You can;t give infinity.

Poeple said:
I don't think this is true for the Donbas or for Crimea.
If you ask Ukrainian living west of the front line "would you like to live in Russia so that the war will stop", most of them will answer yes, regardless their ethnic affiliation.
If you ask Russians living east of the front line the same question: "would you like to live in Ukraine so that the war will stop", they will also answer yes.
For people there, the most important is that the war stops.
Many in Ukraine and in Russia support the war effort only as long as it's not them who are going to die on the battlefield and it's not their home that is being reduced to rubbles.

The only difference is that population east of the front line suffers much less form the war than those in the west of it.

Feanor said:
Except he's not a glitch. He's part of a political movement that exists in many European countries. It is not inconceivable that someone like him could end up running other European countries.
Fico. LOL.
Yes there is such a movement in most of western countries. Maybe more in western Europe than in eastern Europe.
I don;t think that Orban's position toward Putin is shared by the majority of Hungarians. But he was elected for other reasons.
The same with Le Pen in France. She is not elected (or almost elected) because she is a friend of Putin. But because she is, lots of people in the far right think that the invasion was somewhat justified, that the West is also responsible and that Zelensky is a crook.
There is also a very active Russian propagande in Europe spreading these ideas.
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SinisterMinister said:
Did US advisors have a plan for how he would win? Or were they just cynically backing him in order to drain Russian resources for as long as possible?
Why is it cynical?

What is cynical is that they didn't react when Putin was massing troops at their border despite the Budapest Memorandum which should protect Ukraine against the use of force.

What is cynical is that China is helping Russia because they can buy cheap oil and gold.

What is cynical is when countries pretend to be neutral while allowing Russia to evade sanctions.
Had China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and other Emirates and most of the other major countries in the world applied sanctions, the war would be over by now.

Draining Russian resources is the only thing that can help Ukraine win this war, or mitigate losses at the end of it.
And this is working very effectively.

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Korean troops
Musashi_kenshin said:
A better question is what does NATO do if North Korea is sending significant numbers of troops to Ukraine.
Nothing. North Korea is already under sanctions to the bone and is sanctioning herself by applying a communist economy.
There is nothing to do in this respect.

Beyond that, we don't care about North Korea. If it was China or another serious country, it would be another story.

One interesting fact: The Koreans are going to fight in the Yakut Battalion so that they can pass for Russians from Yakutia who look like Asians. Problem is that Koreans don't look like Yakutians, yet they hope that white people won't notice the difference.
It means that they don't want to show that Korean soldiers take an active role despite that everybody knows that they are there.
(IMO That's why they don't speak Korean in the video.)
 

rsemmes

Member
Zelensky is not the only delusional one. I consider RUSI a serious publication.

In any such deal, Zelensky would be unlikely to secure the recovery of Crimea and the Donbas, reparations for the massive damage to his country, war crimes trials or membership of NATO.
(In what deal is he going to get all that?)
But, without NATO membership and its Article 5 guarantee, there would be nothing to stop Putin from continuing the war after a couple of years of recovery and rearmament.
(Two years of "recovery and rearmament" for Ukraine to lose the same war again? What is the point of fighting the war now? The point of the deal should be those guarantees, Point 5 or not.)
Even the Baltics would be justifiably nervous, in spite of their NATO status.
(What is the point of Ukraine joining NATO then?)
Joe Biden’s hesitancy in allowing Storm Shadow missiles to be used against targets inside Russia.
(This after "an small amount of missiles that are not going to change the course of the war" and after Ukraine being hit by a larger number of missiles since 2022.)
The result has been that Ukraine feels it has been given enough not to lose but not enough to win.
("Feels" seems appropriate, but what is "enough to win", NATO invading Russia?)
Its refusal to supply Taurus missiles and its public debate about reducing its defence budget have sent all the wrong messages.
(More of the same -missiles- even if it's true that a war of "messages" would have been less costly for everyone; specially for Ukraine.)
Yes, there would have been a theoretical risk of undermining faith in the Western-dominated financial system...
(Is it a question of "faith" or of that "West’s much-vaunted rules-based international order".)
The West’s much-vaunted rules-based international order... (and then) the decision not to seize Russian financial assets frozen in Western banks.
(What "rules are those then? -Not to mention the Invasion of Iraq- Seizing those assets would be a legal -rules-based- act? Not a casus belli, but fighting that act seems like a just war anyway.)
A newly elected President Trump would rightly claim that, once again, the US has shouldered the main burden of Western interests with inadequate support from its NATO allies. He would point, correctly again, to the mounting military pressure on Ukraine, its difficulties in replacing front-line soldiers
(Not so delusional here, maybe just because I agree with the word selected, "interests". Vanitas, vanitatis; but with "interests" instead.)
Barring a mutiny by Russian forces or a crisis in Moscow, the prospects for Ukraine -and therefore Europe- look grim.
(But never a crisis in Kiev. Do the "interests" of Europe look grim? Not those of the MIC.)
Ukraine’s corrupt oligarchs would re-emerge from hibernation. The old post-Soviet cynicism would replace the youthful enthusiasm of the Maidan generation. There would be antagonism towards those returning from abroad after avoiding the fight
(Re-emerge? I haven't been able to read that they are actually hibernating. The "youthful enthusiasm" of Bandera? I have been able to read of a few shadows in that "enthusiasm" and I would say "if" they return.)
This should have been Europe’s war to manage.
The views expressed in this Commentary are the author’s, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.

Someone could find disappointing that we are in the business of "management". (Not Marx, G. Marx.) Myself, I think that every European (and not only European) government will express the necessary views to act on the decision that have already been taken: Support and betrayal based on interests.
 

Fredled

Active Member
South Korean could send military and intelligence personnel to Ukraine in reaction to a DPRK deployment in Ukraine.
South Korean intelligence official said:
South Korean personnel in Ukraine would interrogate or provide interpretation services if North Korean soldiers were captured by Ukrainian forces
South Korea's intelligence agency said:
North Korea had decided to dispatch 12,000 special forces troops to support Russia, with 1,500 of them already in the Russian Far East.
South Korea's Permanent Representative to the UN said:
North Korea will expect a generous payoff from Moscow in return for its troop contribution. It could be either military of financial assistance. It could be nuclear weapons-related technology.
North Korea will likely soon become an "active belligerent" in Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.
link

A picture of a North Korean flag in Tsukuryne, Donetsk region, was circulating across social media. However it has not been discovered in the reality. Ukrainian intel suggest it's a fake.

Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine said:
"After verifying information from the military command, the Center informs that the flag of the DPRK, the photo of which was distributed on the network, has not been found in the area of the settlement of Tsukuryne in the Pokrovsk axis at the moment,"
__________________

The Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claims the destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 anti-aircraft missile system 60 kilometres from contact line.

And also yet more attacks on Russian air bases and factories.
Ukrinform said:
Unmanned aerial vehicles attacked the Russian enterprise Biochem in the Tambov region and an industrial enterprise in the Voronezh region of the Russian Federation, and the airport in Nizhny Novgorod was closed
governor of the Tambov region Maxim Yegorov said:
Today at 5:20 a.m. in Rasskazovo, presumably as a result of a drone's arrival, an explosion occurred at the Biochem JSC enterprise, followed by a fire.
governor of the Voronezh region Alexander Gusev said:
Air defence and electronic warfare forces on duty in one of the districts of the region detected and jammed an unmanned aerial vehicle. It fell on the building of a workshop of an industrial enterprise.
There were no casualties, but there was a “small fire on one floor of the building.” As of 7 a.m., fire crews are working at the scene.
Two days earlier there were other attacks on Lipetsk air base and another missile and ammunition plant and an electronic plant in Briansk.
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In the Kursk Region, Ukrainians have completely withdrawn from Olgovka and its vicinity. Russian have retaken half of the territory Ukrainian took at the peak of the incursion.

In the Kupiansk area, Russian have reached the Oksil river, cutting Ukrainian north-south logistic lines east of the river. Ukrainians attempted to counter attack without success.

Russian made noticeable advances in Solydove, Torsek and Vyshchiane.

Source: Torsten Heinrich's report on You Tube
 

Fredled

Active Member
rsemmes said:
Two years of "recovery and rearmament" for Ukraine to lose the same war again? What is the point of fighting the war now?
I'm not as pessimistic. Of course, Russians have the upper hand at the moment and are still pounding Ukraine with dozen of Shaheds and long range missiles every day. But the game is not over yet.

Western military support doesn't wane. I talked earlier about the last US package, Mirage 2000-5M's, additional F16's, Abrams form Australia... all this coming in 2025. Ukrainians will still have something to fight with.

Trump's election is also not the end of Ukraine. Nobody knows what Trump would do exactly. He may make a phone call to Putin but it's only assumed that he would make a deal with him. I don't see any reason why Trump would chose to betray Ukraine. It would be the biggest shame for the US ever.

Their coup d'éclat in Kursk showed that they are still able to surprise us.
I expect them to surprise us again with another operation of this type, somewhere else. These operations take months to prepare.

Hitting facilities deep into Russia are no longer one-off lucky operations, but weekly occurrences. It's still far from enough to stop Russian supplies but it makes them more difficult.

The question is how long Russian volunteers will still accept to die for money? This is a question I find hard to answer. At some point, it should be known by everybody in Russia that enlisting for the Special Military Operation Ukraine is suicide. Russians are not suicidal Freedom Fighter like muslims. At some point they should refuse to go.

As long as Ukraine holds, a reversal of the situation is always possible.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The package is worth $400 million. US support is not being reduced as we can see.
This is the money that was allocated to Ukraine’s efforts but never spent over the past 2.5+ years. This is not new aid, but simply declaring aid that was supposed to be provided earlier as a “victory” of some sort and new support, which, of course, it isn’t: “we promised you this equipment over a year ago, but here it is”. Good luck approving any type of new and additional aid in the US.

If you ask Russians living east of the front line the same question: "would you like to live in Ukraine so that the war will stop", they will also answer yes.
I don’t have any hard evidence to point to at this moment, but this is 100% false.

Their coup d'éclat in Kursk showed that they are still able to surprise us.
I expect them to surprise us again with another operation of this type, somewhere else. These operations take months to prepare.
Imagine they would do something like this elsewhere, lose more equipment and men, stretch the frontline even more, withdraw more troops from the crucial points in Eastern Ukraine, etc. Sure would be a surprise though. Or would it?

IMG_7656.jpeg


Edit: Those who can, have a listen to the Indian Minister of External Affairs in this X post: x.com

He says that Russia has never done anything to impact India’s interests negatively. He also talks about strategic mutually beneficial relations, etc.

And edit 2, to add to the edit 1:

IMG_7658.jpeg

 
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Why is it cynical?

What is cynical is that they didn't react when Putin was massing troops at their border despite the Budapest Memorandum which should protect Ukraine against the use of force.

What is cynical is that China is helping Russia because they can buy cheap oil and gold.

What is cynical is when countries pretend to be neutral while allowing Russia to evade sanctions.
Had China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and other Emirates and most of the other major countries in the world applied sanctions, the war would be over by now.

Draining Russian resources is the only thing that can help Ukraine win this war, or mitigate losses at the end of it.
And this is working very effectively.
The cynical part is if Western leaders knew that Ukraine stood no chance in a prolonged conflict and would suffer horrific losses, but supported them, got them to suspend negotiations, and convinced them that they could win with Western support - all the while knowing they would not give enough support to make such an outcome possible.

We know pretty well that in March/April of 2022 Johnson/Austin/Blinken et al convinced Zelensky that they would provide enough support for him to win the war. If they did not have a real plan for how that would happen, then they misled Zelensky quite nastily (and he was naive for believing them). If they did have a real plan, then I am very curious just what it was.

If Western leaders wanted to use Ukraine to bleed Russia without caring about the long term consequences to Ukraine, and without a strategy for Ukrainian victory, how is that anything other than cynical?
 

rsemmes

Member
I'm not as pessimistic. Of course, Russians have the upper hand at the moment and are still pounding Ukraine with dozen of Shaheds and long range missiles every day. But the game is not over yet.

The question is how long Russian volunteers will still accept to die for money? This is a question I find hard to answer. At some point, it should be known by everybody in Russia that enlisting for the Special Military Operation Ukraine is suicide. Russians are not suicidal Freedom Fighter like muslims. At some point they should refuse to go.

As long as Ukraine holds, a reversal of the situation is always possible.
No, they are not as optimistic as you are.

According to the Kyiv Post, it is believed that about 60,000 people have been facing criminal charges for fleeing their posts since the war started. The Ukrainian daily cited documents from the prosecutor general, with almost half of those cases initiated this year.
However, British daily The Times also cited figures from the prosecutor general which, it said, showed some 51,000 criminal cases were initiated for desertion and abandonment of a military unit between January and September of this year. El Pais newspaper cited a closer figure of 45,543 desertions between January and August this year, which it said was data from the Prosecutor General’s Office which had been leaked to the Ukrainian press.
All these figures are much higher than the 22,000 criminal charges filed for the same offence in 2023 and just 9,000 cases in 2022.

They seem to think that enlisting for Ukraine is suicide, too.
 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
This is the money that was allocated to Ukraine’s efforts but never spent over the past 2.5+ years.
Which is even better news. The Amerricans are not spending more money than they had planned to.
Meaning that adding funds when the war chest will be empty will be easier.

KipPotapych said:
I don’t have any hard evidence to point to at this moment, but this is 100% false.
Ok, so I will rephrase the question: "Do you want the war to last another several years, so that the Donbas is in the country of your choice or peace today, immediately with the Donbas not in the country of your choice?"

People are sick and tired of this war on both sides and I mean also on the Russian/pro-Russian side.

Russians (ethnic Russians) will often think "I'm Russian so I will be better in Russia." Their logic stops there. I have met several cases like that personally.
Some of them, also think where their pension will be higher. The population in the Donbas is exceedingly heavily retired. Young people don't stay where it sucks. It happens that pensions are higher in Russia than in Ukraine (thought this should be verified and/or updated). I also know one case personally. But I don't speak about my personal experience, as my number of personal contacts is not statistical grade, but also from what I hear from everybody.
They have one thing in common with the rest of the humanity: They don't want to live in a war eternally for the sake of the nation. To the question they will all choose peace now.

KipPotapych said:
Imagine they would do something like this elsewhere, lose more equipment and men, stretch the frontline even more, withdraw more troops from the crucial points in Eastern Ukraine, etc. Sure would be a surprise though. Or would it?
Yes because the only time they did what everybody expected and what seemed to be the most logical strategically, it ended in an humiliating disaster. I'm talking about the 2023 Counter Offensive. And the last time they did something crazy, completely unexpected, they kicked the Russians in the rear like no one, in both sens of the term. I'm talking, of course, about the Kursk Incursion.

That's how Ukrainian should operate. Their next move will also be something bold and unbelievable. I don't know where it will be. It can be one more time inside Russia, or it can be in Crimea or in Ukraine. There is no rule that says that it will be similar to the Kursk Incursion. It will be something nobody would think of.
Ukrainians have always been successful in things that seemed impossible and much less so in things that had to be obvious. It's their temperament.

KipPotapych said:
He says that Russia has never done anything to impact India’s interests negatively.
Of course not! To the contrary the war in Ukraine opened incredible opportunities for India, China, The Emirates and maybe many more others. It's the winning ticket of the century.

India opens two more consulates in Russia? They do well: If you want a free meal, you have to go to the party. India is not going to let their Chinese rivals plunder Russia alone.
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SinisterMinister said:
The cynical part is if Western leaders knew that Ukraine stood no chance in a prolonged conflict and would suffer horrific losses, but supported them, got them to suspend negotiations, and convinced them that they could win with Western support - all the while knowing they would not give enough support to make such an outcome possible.

We know pretty well that in March/April of 2022 Johnson/Austin/Blinken et al convinced Zelensky that they would provide enough support for him to win the war. If they did not have a real plan for how that would happen, then they misled Zelensky quite nastily (and he was naive for believing them). If they did have a real plan, then I am very curious just what it was.
But that's exactly the opposite that happened. The West didn't provide substantial military aid to Ukraine in 2021 because they believe that they stood no chance in the event of an invasion by the Russian Army. The Russians had all the advantages to win, theoretically.

It's only when they saw that Ukraine resisted unexpectedly well, and in particular when they routed Russians in front of Kiev, that they offered Zelynsky substantial military aid to defeat Russia. And they did: The military aid was substantial. albeit not enough, and too late, because of these stupid red line western leaders were afraid to cross.

I don't think that western leaders had a cynical plan. I don;t think that they knew. Instead, they didn't expect that Russia would add another half million men into the fight, increase military production three fold and upgrade to drone warfare with the help of China. All these things were not known and not expected at this time. Thought they should have foreseen this possibility.

Nobody would expect also that some of these weapons would be wasted in the 2023 Counter Offensive. The most stupid attack in military history.

In theory, the aid promised and provided by Johnson/Austin/Blinken should have been enough. But war seldom follows theory.

SinisterMinister said:
If Western leaders wanted to use Ukraine to bleed Russia without caring about the long term consequences to Ukraine
As I explained earlier, due to the risk of nuclear retaliation, IMO (in my opinion), western leaders don't want to be the responsible of the Russian defeat. They want it to be the defeat of the Russian army by their own weakness in face of Ukrainian resistance. That they can;t risk a nuclear war by going too far too fast.
Had Russia not owned the nuclear deterrent, Russians would have been totally defeated almost as fast as Saddam in Kuwait.

rsemmes said:
According to the Kyiv Post, it is believed that about 60,000 people have been facing criminal charges for fleeing their posts since the war started.
It means that young Ukrainian boys don't lack common sens. They don;t want to die uselessly.
The reason for desertion is not that they die often, but, as the article said, the lack of free days and lack of ammunitions. I would desert too in these conditions.

Ukrainians soldiers at the front had only two days off after two weeks in the trenches. Now they have fixed this and they have 10 days off after 2 weeks at the front (at least from some sources).

Lack of ammunitions and air cover is also an excellent reason to quit your position. Why would you stay there if there is nothing to fight with and you will die for nothing?
Here again, the Ukrainians are right to point to the slow rate of ammunition delivery by western donors.

With all these bad news, it's a miracle that Ukrainians are succeeding in keeping the Russian advance very slow.
If the fighting conditions improve for the Ukrainians, like better rotations, more artillery shells, more F16's, more HIMARS, more air defences, they will be able to do something.

On the Russian side, desertion are much lower because, today, many of them decided to go by their own will, attracted by the high pay. And also because punishment is far more severe. It's also a big shame to desert, thought it's not fanaticism neither.
Another reason is that many of the new recruits, poorly equipped and poorly trained, don't live long enough to be bored by bad conditions of life. If they don't die in the first and second assault. They will die in the third one.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kursk region.

Russian forces continue to bite off pieces of Ukraine's positions in Kursk region. Russia is still attempting to threaten the flanks to force withdrawals but only on a tactical level. Ukraine's forces in Glushkovo area have withdrawn. Attacks towards Veseloe have stopped.


Allegedly Ukrainian infantry retreating in Kursk region after losing their vehicles.


Russian two vehicle element moving towards Lyubimovka for the attack.


Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) ATGM team operating in Kursk region. Despite no longer being part of the front and center war effort, MVD and FSB units are still part of the fight.


Russian RPG engages allegedly a Ukrainian BTR. Note the vehicle isn't moving and they're not under fire. If this isn't staged, they're finishing off an abandoned vehicle.


Ukraine's 47th Mech has now shown up near Novoivanovka with M2s and M1s.


Near Kremyannoe a Ukrainian M113 hits a landmine and is finished off with drone strikes.


Russian UCAV strikes continue. I suspect this pattern has a lot to do with Russian gains here. It will be interesting to see if this spreads to other areas of the war.


A downed Russian Orion UCAV in Kursk region allegedly brought down by a Strela-10.


Russian forces mortaring a knocked out MRAP and ATV, Ukrainian. Note they're not very accurate and this is questionable use of munitions.


An L119 destroyed in Kursk region.


Ukrainian BMP-2 burns in Kursk region.


Russian drone strikes take out a Ukrainian VAB 4X4 in Kursk.


Russian Lancet strike on allegedly a Caesar howitzer, Kursk region. I have some doubts, on the Caesar the barrel is longer then the truck cab.


Russian wire-guided drone hits a Ukrainian 2S3 in Kursk region. I find it interesting that they chose to strike the front of the vehicle rather then the turret.


A series of Russian FPV strikes on Ukrainian vehicles including what looks like a Krab howitzer.


Russian bomb strikes landing in the Kursk border area.


A Bergenpanzer gets hit and taken out, Kursk region.


A Russian soldier poses with a taken out M577 and an M16, Kursk region. Note I think we saw this one get hit, the clump of trees looks very similar. Another one posing with a MaxxPro, unsure if it's another one or we've seen it before.


Russian forces with a captured Oshkosh MRAP and a Bradley.


Russian Z-STS hauling away a captured Roshel Senator armored car.


Russian forces hauling away a captured BRDM-2.


Russian forces with a captured Kirpi and Kazak-7 near Veseloe.


A wrecked Ukrainian mechanized element in Kursk border area. We see a destroyed tank, something unidentifiable, and what I think is a Roshel Senator.


A knocked out Ukrainian CV90 in the Kursk border area.


A knocked out Ukrainian UGV, Kursk region.


A burned out Stryker and ripped apart CR-2 near Sheptuhovka.


Another Stryker destroyed near Kauchuk, and a FV432 and VAB destroyed near Sheptuhovka.


A Ukrainian M113 and BRDM-2 in the river near Apanasovka.


A well disguised Ukrainian mortar position in Sumy region. Building positions like this is one of the things that drastically improves the survivability of infantry in this relatively positional fight.


Ukrainian POWs in Kursk region.


Kharkov area.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured some ground north of Liptsi. This area has changed hands several times.


Russian battle group north hitting a Ukrainian vehicle near Kharkov, allegedly a Stryker.


Russian strike on allegedly a BMP-2 near Volchansk. I can't make out exactly what it is.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian M577 in the Kharkov border area.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kupyansk area.

Russian forces continue to expand the Peschanoe salient. Russian forces now hold much of Kruglyakovka and are basically at the river. Russian forces have also taken all of Vishnevoe in Kharkov region, across the Zherebets. Lastly Russian forces have pushed westward towards the Oskol out of Sin'kovka.


Russian drones triple-tap a Ukrainian T-64BV in the Kupyansk area.


Russia has reportedly started using longer-ranged TOS rockets in the Kupyansk area.


Russian bomb strike on Kucherovka, near Kupyansk.


Ukraine is evacuating Kupyansk. The city has changed hands twice, and might now change hands a third time. It's unclear how many people still live there.


Oskol front.

Russian forces have attacked across the Zherebets river west of Stel'makhovka and Myasozharovka, south of the Peschanoe salient. Russia is also making another play towards Torskoe-Terny. This time it's a simultaneous effort in both area. Russian forces now have a salient reaching the outskirts of Torskoe but they've been here before but retreated. The fall of these two villages theoretically opens the road on Krasniy Liman but I really wonder why they're doing it this way. The salient at Peschanoe could be pushed southward, along Ukrainian defenses instead of attacking into the teeth. And none of the natural barriers would really work in Ukraine's favor.

I wrote this last night and this morning Russian forces pushed southward out of Nevskoe towards Novosadovoe, taking the village, and approaching Terny from the north.


Russian flag raising in Nevskoe.


Russian bridge strikes on the Oskol continue.


Russian bomb strike on Krasniy Liman. So far the front is still not moving to this town.


Seversk salient.

Russian forces push forward in the hills north of Verkhnekamenskoe.


A Ukrainian T-72AV taken out in Zvanovka, allegedly by a Russian loitering munition.


Chasov Yar.

Russian forces have broken through across the canal and seized at least a portion of one of the refuse mounds south of the town. They then exploited this gain to seize a sizeable chunk of eastern Chasov Yar and are now across the field from the factory complex. North, in Kalinovka, they took the rest of the village, and the first set of refuse hills. Between the northern Russian push from canal and Kalinovka, and the southern push through the refuse mound there is a chunk of forest. Reports have that forest well fortified and the site of substantial Ukrainian forces. I have a feeling the intent is to threaten encirclement to force a Ukrainian withdrawal, rather than a frontal assault.


Russian strikes in the Chasov Yar area.


A destroyed BMP-1 and MT-LB VMK near Chasov Yar. Both allegedly Ukrainian.


A Ukrainian Novator armored car destroyed by Russian FPV drones near Chasov Yar.


Gorlovka-Toretsk.

Russian forces have pushed out west of Nelepovka again. So far this is just a Russian effort to ensure there's a buffer to put some distance between the Russian supply route and the Ukrainian front line. The next line of Ukrainian villages sit in a low land area. Russian forces also continue their flanking advance passing out of Nelepovka into Scherbinovka where they took the trainstation and a chunk of the village north of it. Russia's push in the center of Toretsk seems to have stalled and it's possible this is an attempt to encircle the town from the west.


In Toretsk Russian forces continue to throw mine bundles into buildings. We have at least two incidents and that's just what we got on video.


Russian drone strikes in Toretsk. We see what looks like a Kirpi, and M113, a Humvee, and a pickup truck.


A series of Russian FPV drone strikes have hit M113, Marder, and T-64BV.


Pokrovsk area.

Russian forces have begun an assault on Selidovo across a wide area. Consequently Russian forces have gained considerable ground on the eastern side of town and have recaptured the mine complex. The fate of the refuse mound is currently unclear. Russian forces have also gained ground north of Selidovo and have entered the town's northern outskirts. There are some claiming Russian forces have entered the center of town where the mid-rise buildings are located but evidence is scant. In all likelihood Selidovo is about to fall so it's possible our information is just delayed. Russian forces have also started pushing on Vozdvizhenka for the first time in months. Perhaps this is preparation for crossing the river to envelop Mirnograd from the east. Lastly all of Tsukurino is now under Russian control.


A pile of wrecked Ukrainian vehicles near Pokrovsk, an M1117, M113, MaxxPro, and Bradley.


Russian forces raising the flag in Krasniy Yar. Note this is only a ceremony, the village has in fact been in Russian hands for some time prior to this.


Russian FPV drone strike on 2 Bradleys, Pokrovsk area. One is towing a disabled vehicle.


Russian TOS-1 fires, Pokrovsk area.


Russian Nona-SVKs continue operating on the Pokrovsk axis.


Russia has been repeatedly striking the Western mine complex near Pokrovks. It's unclear if the intent is to strike the mine itself or if Ukrainian forces are using it as a staging area.


Battle damage after a Russian bomb strike on Pokrovsk. While it's not currently a target of the Russian offensive, fighting is still occurring, and no doubt Russia is preparing the ground for future attacks.


Russia hit the locomotive depot in Pokrovsk.


Russian soldier on bike, Pokrovsk axis.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kurakhovo area.

Russian forces have begun an assault on Gornyak. This comes after Russian forces have failed to complete an envelopment of the town. However there is currently only one good route out of the town and it's neighboring villages. Russian forces have taken several streets in the northern part of town, and the hills north-east of the town, approaching the outskirts on a wide area. Russian forces have also struck across the river into Zoryanoe and have taken it. Lastly Russian forces have taken all of Maksimil'yanovka, the heights south of it, and are now pushing into the dacha neighborhood on the outside of Kurakhovo. Meanwhile Ukrainian positions east of the Volchya are all gone except Aleksandropol'.


Finishing moments of Russia's assault on Maksimil'yanovka. The part where they blow the building looks like it might have been another mine-bundle toss.


Footage of apparently Russian forces entering Ostrovskoe. Note the large column with minimal dispersion. They're clearly not concerned with enemy artillery.


Russian drone drops taking out an M113 and hitting infantry in the Kurakhovo area.


Russian forces hauling away an M113 from the Kurakhovo axis.


Russian bomb strike on Kurakhovo, allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.


Ugledar area.

Russian forces have taken most of Katerinovka, have entered Antonovka, and have advanced along a wide front north and west of Ugledar. Russian forces have also taken the rest of the road from Konstantinovka to Mar'inka. Russian forces have also pushed into the fields south-west of Zolotaya Niva. While the advances here aren't as rapid as they were after the fall of Avdeevka, Russian forces are definitely continuing to gain ground steadily beyond Ugledar. Ukraine has so far not managed to stabilize the situation. I think the crisis point for Ukraine here will come with the fall of Bogoyavlenka. After that this southern area will become a credible threat to Kurakhovo.


Russian FPV drone operators downing heavy Ukrainian drones.


Russian FAB strikes in the Dolgopol'ye and Bogoyavlenka area.


Russian drone strike on what appears to be a howitzer hiding in the treeline west of Ugledar.


Russian strike on allegedly a Krab howitzer. It's unclear what they hit but it looks like a military vehicle of some sort.


Russian forces faul away a knocked out Kirpi near Zolotaya Niva.


Russia captures more POWs near Ugledar.


Allegedly captured Ukrainian kit near Katerinovka.


Zaporozhye front.

Russian forces have advanced north and north-east of Levadnoe, reaching the ponds. However it's unclear if Russia can keep this going, and the effort does look awfully isolated where it is.


Allegedly a Ukrainian destroyed ZSU-23-4.


Russian M-46s in action near Urozhaynoe.


Russian forces have built and deployed an improvised UGV ATGM carrier. It's unclear how effective this is.


Dnepr front.

Russia is striking a bridge across the Konka river. Konka is a small river that runs partially parallel to the Dnepr, so this bridge essentially leads to one of the islands. Presumably there are still Ukrainian forces in the area, suggesting reports of Russian control of all of them were premature.


Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian pickup truck with personnel near Ukrainka village, on the shore of the Dnepr, Krivoy Rog region.


Strikes.

Russian strikes landing in Sumy, target unclear.


Russia hit the Odessa port repeatedly.


Russian strikes landed in Kharkov, reportedly it caused blackouts and water shut offs.


Russian strikes landing in Zaporozhye.


Russia hit the L'vov autoplant causing a major fire. Pre-war this factory made among other things buses.


Russian strikes on Kiev, targets unclear.


Ukrainian air defenses firing in Kiev.


A Russian decoy shot down over Rovno region.


Russia hit the armor repair plant in Nikolaev, allegedly with S-300 missiles.


Footage of strikes on Nikolaev, it's unclear if this is the same strike as above.


Russian missile strike landing at Limanskoe military base near Transnetria.


Ukraine hit a synthetic rubber factory in Tula causing a fire.


Ukraine hit the Sverdlov factory in Nizhniy Novgorod region with drones. The extend of the damage is unclear.


Ukrainian Mi-24V intercepting a Shahed.


The Kreminy El factory in Bryansk region has halted production due to Ukrainian strikes. It's unclear how substantial the interruption is but it's noteworthy.


We have our first confirmation that Russia has started mounting cameras on their Shahed drones. It's unclear if they can be redirected in mid-flight or this is just pure recon capability to add to their payload.


Some shots of Ukrainian air defense teams in action.


Russian Ka-52 intercepts a Ukrainian drone in Orel region.


A downed Russian Shahed, allegedly with a thermobaric warhead.


We have confirmation of Russian using Kh-69s with cluster munition warheads.


A previously unseen Russian UAV is getting spotted over Ukraine during large strikes.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting bits.

Another Mamba Mk 2 has been seen in Ukraine, knocked out.


An interesting piece of footage, a T-64BV with the new foldable roof cages Ukraine uses that got hit by an FPV drone. The vehicle is damaged and clealy requires repairs but is not destroyed. Presumably the roof cage worked to some extent.


Ukrainian IRIS-T ops. They don't often show this off.


Ukrainian forces with an FV434 ARV.


Ukrainian Valuk APC, with the 44th Mech.


Ukraine's 116th Mech with a Romanian APR-40 Grad clone.


Ukraine's 36th MarBde with a ZSU-23-4. Note it appears to have a functioning radar.


Ukraine's 36th MarBde T-64BVs on exercises. You can get a good look at the foldable roof cages.


Ukraine's 33rd Mech with a Leo-2A4, up-armored with K-1.


Ukraine's 95th Air-Assault Bde operating a captured BMP-1AM. This is one of those cheap and dirty upgrades that can at little cost add considerable capability to an otherwise rather lackluster platform.


A Ukrainian front line air defense teams with a combination of small arms, MANPADS, and anti-drone EW.


A look at new side cages on a Leo-2A6.


Iranian 122mm shells in Ukrainian service.


An interesting video of a Ukrainian truck bringing Uragan missiles. The truck is a civilian trailer and the missiles are allegedly loaded with mines.


Ukrainian Su-27 with GBU-39B SDBs.


A Russian Sarmat-3 armored car shows up in the war zone. It's unclear if its going into production or there's just some quantity available that was handed over.


A BMD-4M with the extra armor kit. This is the first time we've seen this in the field and based on the paint job it's not one of the demo vehicles shipped to the troops.


Russian volunteer brigade Nevskiy Detachment receives Chekan armored trucks and SBA Ladoga armored cars.


Photos of African soldiers in Russian service continue to crop up.


Russian forces have restored a captured M88 to working condition. It's unclear how much effort this actually took, and it's also unclear if they intend to operate it. They also have a working MaxxPro though those aren't particularly scarce.


France will reportedly supply Colibri loitering munitions to Ukraine.


It appears as many as 300 000 children from 10th and 11th grades left Ukraine before the start of this school year. Presumably this is to avoid registering with the military commissariat.

 
But that's exactly the opposite that happened. The West didn't provide substantial military aid to Ukraine in 2021 because they believe that they stood no chance in the event of an invasion by the Russian Army. The Russians had all the advantages to win, theoretically.

It's only when they saw that Ukraine resisted unexpectedly well, and in particular when they routed Russians in front of Kiev, that they offered Zelynsky substantial military aid to defeat Russia. And they did: The military aid was substantial. albeit not enough, and too late, because of these stupid red line western leaders were afraid to cross.
Leaving aside the question of just what aid would have actually made an actual difference in the outcome of the war (maybe an air force or a million armed men, imo), the question is what prompted the additional aid? It wasn't just the victory at Kiev. It was either a belief that such victory was achievable many times over, or a belief that an opportunity existed to draw down Russian resources by using the Ukrainians, who had proven much more capable than initially imagined.

This framing also mischaracterizes Western strategy prior to 2021; they did arm Ukraine and encourage their belligerence throughout the Minsk process, but likely did not foresee an actual Russian invasion until it was too late.

I don't think that western leaders had a cynical plan. I don;t think that they knew. Instead, they didn't expect that Russia would add another half million men into the fight, increase military production three fold and upgrade to drone warfare with the help of China. All these things were not known and not expected at this time. Thought they should have foreseen this possibility.
These were all incredibly foreseeable events and any military advisor worth their salt would factored them into an analysis of the situation. So they were either stupid or cynical.

Nobody would expect also that some of these weapons would be wasted in the 2023 Counter Offensive. The most stupid attack in military history.

In theory, the aid promised and provided by Johnson/Austin/Blinken should have been enough. But war seldom follows theory.
Western advisors were the ones who pushed the counter-offensive. It was supposed to be a grand display of NATO-trained tactical and technical prowess. Hard to say they didn't expect it.

As I explained earlier, due to the risk of nuclear retaliation, IMO (in my opinion), western leaders don't want to be the responsible of the Russian defeat. They want it to be the defeat of the Russian army by their own weakness in face of Ukrainian resistance. That they can;t risk a nuclear war by going too far too fast.
Had Russia not owned the nuclear deterrent, Russians would have been totally defeated almost as fast as Saddam in Kuwait.
I suppose this may have happened with the full-scale intervention of NATO armies yes, but that is a hypothetical that does not provide much interesting insight. The Ukrainian military does not have the capability to totally defeat Russia.

None of your arguments seem to cut against my conclusion that either they had a plan (and the plan was probably bad), or they were cynical. If there was an actual plan for Ukrainian victory, again, I would like to know it, because according to the arguments you lay out such a plan would have ignored key factors. If there was no plan, then again, they were quite cynical to pretend there was.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
These were all events incredibly foreseeable and any military advisor worth their salt would factored them into an analysis of the situation. So they were either stupid or cynical.
I am amazed by the people that come out of the woodwork and claim the things were incredibly foreseeable after the event yet failed to speak up a significant time prior to the event. The reality is that prior to an event that the future possibilities are endless and politicians as well as the general public don't want the status quo to be disturbed until there is no other option.
In regard to the invasion of Ukraine, the time available for the political machine to first of all react and acknowledge there was a problem (which takes considerable time in a democracy) and actually do something was insufficient to achieve anything meaningful.
History shows us that while hindsight is very good at showing up our failings, foresight is consistently dogged with failings.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Reaction time to do something is a function of when negative “stuff” hits your fan. To be fair, that involves some guess work but Crimea was a wake up call that was somewhat ignored. Mega defence buildup should have started then thus allowing a real response in terms of military kit donations to Ukraine when Putin started his debacle. Would have been better for both sides as this mess might have ended by now. Also, deep strike retaliation weapons, the delays are appalling.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Kazan Declaration of the BRICS summit said:
"We emphasize that all states should act consistently with the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter in their entirety and interrelation. We note with appreciation relevant proposals of mediation and good offices, aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy."
Given that Russia signed this declaration, it's the summit of the summum of hypocrisy risen to a level unseen before.

Modi (named after his talent as a moderator?) politely told Putin that he wanted peace in Ukraine. I don't know what was the true intent of these words and how Putin interpreted them.
_______________________

Lithuania will invest EUR 10 million in the production of the Palianytsia drone-missile
Palianytsia is a word that you will have to remember in the future, IMO, even if it's difficult to pronounce.

Ukrainian have hit one more facility in Russia: A Vodka distillery. Because of the sanctions, they couldn't import it from the Netherlands anymore. The strategic impact is obvious: No vodka = No Russia.
More seriously: Ukrainians said that the plant didn't produce only fuel for drinkers but for war planes too.
Andrii Kovalenko said:
These are all military objects, despite being disguised as something else
It's not clear yet whether the plant was hit with a Palianytsia or something else.

__________________________

DPRK
The same Kovalenko thinks that North Korean soldiers will make their first appearance in the Kursk's operation theater.
Andrii Kovalenko said:
For the DPRK, military aid to Russia, in addition to profiting off of it, is also a ‘live test’ of its soldiers in the conditions of a modern warfare for further confrontation with South Korea. Participation in the battles within Kursk region will be the first stage of this run-in,"
I wish them good luck... :D

____________________________

Ukraine will receive only three Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets in the first quarter of 2025.
This number is, again, disappointing. The total number is much higher (I don;t remember it at the moment), but I expected at least five or six.

The reason is,as always, that training is taking time. But also the upgrades. As the article suggests, they are important.
I'm curious why the French designed a war plane exclusively for air to air interception...?
It's only later that they made adaptation for air to ground strikes.

Let's hope they will receive more before 2025's end.

______________________

Feanor said:
A downed Russian Shahed, allegedly with a thermobaric warhead.
I knew Shaheds can cary heavy payload... but thermobarics?

Feanor said:
Iranian 122mm shells in Ukrainian service.
Feanor said:
An interesting video of a Ukrainian truck bringing Uragan missiles. The truck is a civilian trailer and the missiles are allegedly loaded with mines.
Where did they get these Uragan rockets from? Also from Iran?

Feanor said:
Photos of African soldiers in Russian service continue to crop up.
Also interresting the Russian sorcerer meeting his African counterpart. Interfaith meeting. LOL.

Feanor said:
It appears as many as 300 000 children from 10th and 11th grades left Ukraine before the start of this school year. Presumably this is to avoid registering with the military commissariat.
there is real fear to be drafted and be sent to the meat grinder as soon as the teenager reaches his 18th birthday. I have personally met people in this case and they were very far from being pro-Putin. They just deem the life of their child to be more important.
I imagine there are a lot of people reasoning like this, even thought the mobilisation age is 27? 25?. Whatever.
It's natural. Myself, I would do everything so that my son doesn't go there.

Today I read that 10 millions Ukrainians left Ukraine since 2022. Among them there are a certain number of teenage boys. So, it's not only by intent, but by the effect of migration.
_____________________

SinisterMinister said:
These were all incredibly foreseeable events and any military adviser worth their salt would factored them into an analysis of the situation. So they were either stupid or cynical.
For what I can observe, they are stupid.
(Someone here was angry at me for calling politicians stupid and ignorant. I don't remember who it was...)

You said:
Western advisers were the ones who pushed the counter-offensive. It was supposed to be a grand display of NATO-trained tactical and technical prowess. Hard to say they didn't expect it.
I didn't understand the relationship between what the western (actual;y Americans) advisers suggested and the final decision by the Ukrainian headquarter.
For what I have heard, US advisers already put the likely death toll among Ukrainian troops at 20 000 in their plan. IMO, someone proposing such a plan and expect the Ukrainian leadership to apply it should have his head examined.
Anyway, the Ukrainians didn't follow the US advisers' plan.

They did two things: Trying to retake Bahkmut and attacking head first the Surovikin Line.
IMO, Ukrainians put too much faith in NATO grade armours. On top of taking these two very stupid decisions.

After, that being said, it's easy to criticize. But we weren't there in the first place.

I said:
Had Russia not owned the nuclear deterrent, Russians would have been totally defeated almost as fast as Saddam in Kuwait.
You said:
I suppose this may have happened with the full-scale intervention of NATO armies yes, but that is a hypothetical that does not provide much interesting insight. The Ukrainian military does not have the capability to totally defeat Russia.
Yes, with a massive intervention of NATO's armies. That's what I think.

You said:
If there was an actual plan for Ukrainian victory, again, I would like to know it, because according to the arguments you lay out such a plan would have ignored key factors. If there was no plan, then again, they were quite cynical to pretend there was.
I don't think that they had a plan. Or that anybody had one.
They faced the dilema that one the one hand we should defeat Putin, on the other we have to avoid a nuclear war.
Both of these decisions are wise. Unfortunately they are contradicting each other. That's why the reaction of the West seems clumsy, on top of stupidity inherent to the political class, but not related to these two fundamental decisions, but related to implementations.

So, yes, cynical or not, the plan is to let Ukraine suffer longer to avoid a nuclear war with Russia.

Rob c said:
n regard to the invasion of Ukraine, the time available for the political machine to first of all react and acknowledge there was a problem (which takes considerable time in a democracy) and actually do something was insufficient to achieve anything meaningful.
The world had seen the Russian military build up encircling Ukraine for two years.
The right reaction would have been to hurry up with much more military aid than what was provided at this time, and even an air force deployment in the western part of Ukraine and a NATO intervention force of 20 or 30 000 troops, solidly armoured. This of course, prior the 2022 invasion.
They would have stayed in the western part of Ukraine to avoid provocation with the Russians in the Donbas but that would have made Putin think twice. This could sound extreme. But what happened next was also extreme.
Even sending military supplies in larger quantities would have been very helpful. I'm not saying that only extreme measures are helpful. Just that they had to be a little bit more reactive to the military build up.

OK. They didn't and we have the situation that it is now. It's useless to cry on something that we cannot change.
 
Last edited:

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukrainian have hit one more facility in Russia: A Vodka distillery. Because of the sanctions, they couldn't import it from the Netherlands anymore. The strategic impact is obvious: No vodka = No Russia.
More seriously: Ukrainians said that the plant didn't produce only fuel for drinkers but for war planes too.
This isn't the 1930s so it's pretty odd to see a claim like that.

I knew Shaheds can cary heavy payload... but thermobarics?
You can fit thermobaric warheads into man-portable weapons. Of course you can fit them on a Shahed.

Where did they get these Uragan rockets from? Also from Iran?
Unlikely. The BM-27 saw relatively little export. It might be imported from somewhere in Central Asia or the Caucuses. It might be pulling from Ukrainian stocks. Mine carrying variants might be less heavily used and therefore Ukraine might still have some left. We also don't know from where and to where they're being transported.

there is real fear to be drafted and be sent to the meat grinder as soon as the teenager reaches his 18th birthday. I have personally met people in this case and they were very far from being pro-Putin. They just deem the life of their child to be more important.
I imagine there are a lot of people reasoning like this, even thought the mobilisation age is 27? 25?. Whatever.
It's natural. Myself, I would do everything so that my son doesn't go there.
And of course this bodes well for Ukraine's manpower issues at the front.

Today I read that 10 millions Ukrainians left Ukraine since 2022. Among them there are a certain number of teenage boys. So, it's not only by intent, but by the effect of migration.
From what I understand this quantity left relatively recently.
 
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