Wether it's the Lugansk population or the Russian population, they don't give a damn about what happens with Ukraine.
It's not like 2013 when the population in the Donbas favored Russia because the Ukrainian state was, well, just like Russia.
Today poeple are sick and tired of this war. On both sides. They don't care about which country they wil be living in as long as the war stops. At least in the east of Ukraine (the west of Ukraine will not accept a return into Russia's orbit). Nobody would feel betrayed if some territotries are given to Russia or back to Ukraine. Populations of the Donbas never asked for this war.
For the Russian population the indiference is even bigger. They don't understand this war and don't care of its outcome. Russia doesn't need Ukraine, not anexed nor inside an economic common zone. Russia doesn't need a buffer zone in Ukraine. That's the most ridiculous of all arguments to justify the invasion.
I don't think this is true for the Donbas or for Crimea.
I agree. Ukraine could lose the war the way it goes now. The advances in the Donbas are minimal, but the long range bombings are devastating.
The advances aren't minimal anymore. They're still small in the grand scheme of things but it now looks like Russia could take all of the Donbas. The real issue is the trajectory. If Russian advances continue to accelerate, this is a problem. If September was the high-point, then it's not as significant.
It's true that they depend on Western aid. However I don't expect this aid to dwindle soon. I don't believe that Trump will cut aid to Ukraine totaly and within two weeks. The reason why I believe that is that the aid to Ukraine is a tiny portion of the US Federal budget. And the US has much to gain with continuous experience with the war in Ukraine to develop its own military. Also, if Trump takes this decision, he will have to cope with accepting "yet another defeat" by the US "after Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq" (between brackets because these were not real defeats, but some people says so). I don't think he will wants another international humiliation for the US.
And finaly, you have the most compelling argument that you simply can't let brutal force and blackmail prevail. There is a very good reason why humanity has to defeat Putin.
The aid has already dwindled. The peak of aid to Ukraine in volume was the second half of '22 to the first half of '23. The current level is insufficient.
Secondly, Europe is taking the matter very seriously. Europe sees the war in Ukraine and its own defence against Russia as one and a single topic, without distinction. For Europe, the front line is not the Donbas, Zaporyzha and Sumy, but from the Artic Circle to Syria. Ukraine will definitely be a NATO member. The decision is taken. It's a very important part of the defence strategy. Both because the Ukrainian population wants to be allied with the West, and because Putin showed agressive behavior.
I think that European military development will only increase in the future and military aid to Ukraine is part of this development. Russia will have to follow up if Putin wants to win.
We will have to wait and see. I'm not sold this will happen.
Two things are very surprising thought: European countries located far from Ukraine like France, Portugal and Spain show the same concern about the Russian treath as Nordic and east European countries do.
The second surprise is the reluctance of Hungary to participate. Hugary is like a glitch in the program.
I don't want to take us down the political rabbit hole but I will say this. Hungary is not the glitch. Victor Orban is the "glitch". Except he's not a glitch. He's part of a political movement that exists in many European countries. It is not inconceivable that someone like him could end up running other European countries.
Even if Ukraine loses the war, i.e. they give up more territories than they already lost by now, they will join NATO. Period. 100%. There won't be even a ceasefire if Ukrainians are not going to join NATO because for Ukrainians a peace agreement without NATO is pointless. They are 100% sure to be invaded again in a freseable future if they don't. So if Putin wants an agreement he will have to agree with this.
Maybe. Or maybe Russia will simply fight until Ukraine agrees not to join NATO or until Ukraine isn't a country.
That being said, it doesn't mean it will happens like that. Ukraine could collapse totaly and be finaly overtaken by Russia, or lose half of its terriitory, with the Dniepr as the new border, and finaly forced to stay out of NATO if they want to keep what they are left with. It's a very possible scenario.
One example of a possible outcome, and why I think it would be wise for Ukraine to figure out in a hurry what territory they're willing to cede.
Putin developed his conditions to start peace talks (or was it ceasefire talks?) a few week ago at a tv conference.
You know as well as me what he said.
- Surrendering the 4 Ukrainian provinces entirely + Crimea
- Withdrawing troops 20km away from the 4 province boundaries.
- Not joining NATO
- Reducing the size of the Ukrainian army (not sure of this point was reiterated at this conference, but it was requested earlier)
On the same day he ordred another salvo of ballistic missiles.
A wise choice on the last part. Ukraine will only be willing to negotiate with Russia if the alternatives are worse.
Not sure what perequisite the West has since it's Ukraine who decides. But Putin's perequisites are not acceptable since joining NATO is an essential part of a future peace deal. NATO is the garantee that Ukraine won't be invaded again. Guarantees from "neutral countries" are worthless.
The only alternative to NATO could be deploying large number of Western troops in the east and north of Ukraine as well as a large avaiation presence, military bases and long range anti-missile systems as they build in Turkye and Poland.
Let's wait and see. We still don't have the two sides really interested in negotiating. I don't think Russia expected Ukraine to accept the offer on any level.
What would it change, in regard to what I wrote above?
There is no law prohibiting talks with Russia. There is a law banning talks with Putin. Big difference. Thought talking with Lavrov will also be unlikely.
But let's be serious. If they are not talking, it's not because of a stupid law. (I agree that this law is stupid).
Correct.
Better for everybody. Russia could exit the war economy, invest in edication, heallthcare and public transportations, rise pensions, use the young workforce in productive activities instead of destructive ones, reverse the brain exodus,... And last but not least, renew gaz contracts with Germany and the west in general.
I don;t agree that relations will never be as they were before. Of course, the suspicion will remain. But trading oil and gaz will return as fast as it stopped. They will rebuild the North Stream pipeline, deliver gaz turbines again. Business is the motor of good relationships.
What bombing Ukraine brings to Russia? More insults at the UN, prolonged sanctions, total dependence from China and humiliating meme's on social networks. Not worth it.
Losing territory with millions of Russian citizens (Donbas and Crimea) would be nasty. And I'm not sold gas contracts will come back just like pre-war, though some level of trade will resume. But the pre-war economic relationship went well beyond gas contracts. Russian tanks and IFVs have French thermals. Western auto-makers built cars in Russia, and Russia sold many other kinds of goods to Europe. This relationship is done. A new one will have to be built after the war and it will be at a significantly lower level post-war.
Good point. That's why Putin required more territories than he actualy holds.
Now that goal has failed, dead on arrival, he will have to continue military assaults.
Yes.
And what is this mysterious thing of comparable value that Putin would be willing to exchange?
I'm very curious.
That's just it. Ukraine has nothing to bargain with. It's why Ukraine doesn't want to negotiate with Russia. Ukraine has nothing to offer in exchange for the return of territory. For a long time I thought the logical end of the war will be Russia returning some territories in exchange for Ukraine officially recognizing the loss of other territories to Russia, with some money changing hands to smooth this, but now I'm not so sure. The war continues to change and shift. Now the scenario of a Ukrainian collapse seems less unlikely, and still the willingness to negotiate isn't there. I do think Ukraine is getting desperate and Zelensky is probably realizing that the support of the west has its limits and these limits appear to be below the threshold needed for actually winning the war on the ground. He can get resources, planning, and intel, for more spectacular and embarrassing strikes against Russia. He can also launch some local offensive operations, but it seems he won't be given enough resources for a repeat of the '23 summer offensive. He won't be given the kind of combat jets or air defense systems that will allow him to win the air war. And NATO isn't eager to get involved directly even at the limited level of downing Russian inbounds. If Russia continues to attack successfully I think we might see a change in Ukraine's position as these issues worsen. But it's not clear.
