Air Based Offensive Against Iran- Possible?

[gf0012-aust]

What is the 2355 scenario?

Its the 5 minutes to midnight issue.

ie do they run the risk of getting caught up in the defcon 2 to defcon 1 scenario

whether the US wants to or not, it will be critical in influencing what degree of activity the israelis are confident of undertaking.

of course the israelis may act unilaterally, but they will still want US support prior to and after the event, again, depending on what they see is the need to do to protect the state.

 

[STURM]

I think a question that must be asked at this point is what are isreals chances of sucsess if they do attempt to strike iran by themselfs and more importently is isreal capable of a sustaing air campain agianst iran

The Israeli's certainly can't sustained a prolonged air campaign - due to the distance and logistics involved - and are under no illusions that a strike, or even a few, will cause lasting damage to Iranian facilities. They are banking on the fact that the USAF and the USN will do the job for them. The very minute a single Iranian missile hits Israel, whether an empty spot in the Negev or a parking lot in Haifa, the U.S. will react, not doing so will be political suicide for Obama and contrary to longstanding U.S. policy of 'protecting' Israel against any threats.

aswell as anger from the rest of the m.e not to mention the rockets and morters that would be shure to follow

Most assume that the very minute an Iranian facility is hit, that Hezbollah rockets will start flying towards the northern kibbutz's. That may well not be the case, with Assad under seige, it may be to Iranian and Syrian interests for Hezbollah to sit it out. My guess is that if Hezbollah starts sending rockets over, the Israeli's might use it as a pretext to finish off what they didn't or failed to do in 2006 - and that will be the last thing Iran and Syria needs right now. Bear in mind that what happens in Syria has a direct bearing on what happens in Iran and the Lebanon.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...o-do-is-to-break-iran--via-syria-8037174.html

http://www.agenceglobal.com/index.php?show=article&Tid=2893

http://www.agenceglobal.com/index.php?show=article&Tid=2852

 

[SteelTiger 177]

While an air assualt might be the way to go we should look at th potential for a number of amphibous and airmobile raids on coastal facilities like Peshwar and Bandar Abbas.

 

[Marc 1]

While an air assualt might be the way to go we should look at th potential for a number of amphibous and airmobile raids on coastal facilities like Peshwar and Bandar Abbas.

Can I ask to what end? Do you have info on the presence of Nuc manufacturing on either location?

 

[Masquerader]

Israel is reportedly weighing air strikes on Iran's oil facilities and nuclear infrastructure after an unprecedented Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel.

Israel said mulling attacks on Iran oil rigs, nuclear sites in response to missile attack

Cabinet said resolved to respond militarily, but has not decided how; officials also weighing targeted assassinations, attacks on air defenses; response to be coordinated with US

www.timesofisrael.com

One difficulty with any thought of Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilties is the fact that the nuclear facility in Natanz is deeply buried underground, making it difficult to be pummeled by airstrikes in contrast to the Israeli Air Force having destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq with ease in June 1981.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel is reportedly weighing air strikes on Iran's oil facilities and nuclear infrastructure after an unprecedented Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel.

Israel said mulling attacks on Iran oil rigs, nuclear sites in response to missile attack

Cabinet said resolved to respond militarily, but has not decided how; officials also weighing targeted assassinations, attacks on air defenses; response to be coordinated with US

www.timesofisrael.com

One difficulty with any thought of Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilties is the fact that the nuclear facility in Natanz is deeply buried underground, making it difficult to be pummeled by airstrikes in contrast to the Israeli Air Force having destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq with ease in June 1981.

To understand how Israel might attack an underground facility (UGF), one must divorce from the thought that it is a penetration vs depth calculus.

To provide protection vs conventional, light, affordable munitions - building a UGF makes a lot of sense. For example sections of Israel's Dimona nuclear facilities are UGFs.

But UGFs also pose other challenges:

• Damage control is infinitely more difficult.
• Few and vulnerable access/egress points.
• Life support is vulnerable.

Consider this hypothetical strike:

1. Cruise missile pair is launched to punch a hole in the blast doors.
2. LMs launched to destroy the main equipment. Smaller ones to destroy equipment, larger ones to breach through additional doors.
3. ALBMs launched to collapse shafts that provide breathable air, and access tunnels so facility staff can't escape.
4. ALBMs launched to collapse access tunnels of other UGFs to delay an Iranian response and prepare for additional waves.

Also note that, although its nature is classified, a ground component is definitely a fairly major factor in Israel's general strike plans in Iran.
For example the Israeli raid on a Syrian UGF a couple months ago involved mainly a ground team.