Indonesian Aero News
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Sandhi Yudha
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No....everything will be FFBNW, including the F-15EXs. We can expect a similar scenario like when we got the Sukhois, just with the M61 board cannon and some dumb free fall bombs. And of course we will get a specialized custom made version, which will get the name F-15ID, and is actually a stripped of/downgraded monkey-version.Perhaps the other way around, with those F-15EX are in FFBNW configurations. Perhaps then the Frigates can be in full configuration.
So in the end we will get a FFBNW air- and seafleet.
With defence procurement programs it is always better to be overly pessimistic, in order to prevent disappointments and frustrations.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Talking about budget:
m.antaranews.com
Parliament just ink the next year budget for IDR 155 Trillion, which translate (as USD exchange rate fluctuating in average between IDR 15.5K to 16K) to USD 9.5 - 10 Bio. This budget divided into 5 as for MinDef, Army, Navy, Air Force and TNI HQ/Command.
The budget for operational are in each branches and TNI Command budget. While budget for development including procurement is in MinDef budget. The allocations is not much difference from previous years with MinDef got in average around one third to 40% of budget.
This means as most procurement and development using credit line (domestic or foreign ones), the amount for annual credit installment is around USD 3 bio. Thus this reflect the calculations on potential credit line allotment (which I also made few years back in this thread). The capabilities of budget only able to take +/- USD 20-22 credit line for this term, and most likely on next term.
USD 10 bio budget reflect average 0.7%-0.8% to GDP trend of defense budget. Sometimes that has not been changed much in administrations after Soeharto. Even Soeharto Sometimes only give at most 1% from GDP for defense. If we talk budget for security (including Police and Coast Guard), then it is around 1% of GDP with most of additional budget come from National Police budget.
So back to F-15EX, the question always back where the money come from to afford them while maintaining other procurement including Frigates and Submarines? On this thread I always say either Rafale and F-16 or F-15 and F-16. Both Rafale and F-15 will be too much on budget allocations. Thus if that's being the choices, then again something must give.
If they don't want to sacrifice Navy procurement (as big chunk of defense procurement), then the other AF program that has to give. This meant can be C4ISR, AEW, but also existing fighters upgrade program. It could not only Hawk and Flankers that need to be retire, but also even F-16.
Just don't see money trails is enough unless they double the budget. Can Indonesia afford 1.5% to GDP for defense only ? One thing many local defense enthusiasts forgot that in average Government budget only represents +/- 20% of GDP. So that 0.7-0.8% of GDP already represent 3.5% of overall Government budget. In my opinion, that's already big chunck of Government budget. Getting to 1.5% of GDP at this moment of even in next 5 years, means increasing defense up to 6-7% of Government budgets. Something that difficult to sell politically, unless Indonesia is preparing for armed conflicts.
www.kompas.id
Boeing try to increase their presents in Indonesian aviation market (civilian and military), by promising more access to Indonesia in becoming part of their Global Chain. Personally for me, if it is still has to be Boeing Fighters, then go with F-18E/F. Then again the momentum for F-15EX seems increasing.
They are will be without enough support on armaments stockpile and proper C4ISR assets. Well supports for them will be coming later on, its not priority. The most important thing, they are good for air show and domestic politics. TNI-AU had been equip by two of most advance Gen 4.5 in the market, and that's the selling point.
Komisi I DPR sebut anggaran Kementerian Pertahanan Rp155 triliun
Wakil Ketua Komisi I DPR Utut Adianto menyebut anggaran Kementerian Pertahanan (Kemhan) sebesar Rp155 triliun untuk pagu indikatif tahun ...
m.antaranews.com
Parliament just ink the next year budget for IDR 155 Trillion, which translate (as USD exchange rate fluctuating in average between IDR 15.5K to 16K) to USD 9.5 - 10 Bio. This budget divided into 5 as for MinDef, Army, Navy, Air Force and TNI HQ/Command.
The budget for operational are in each branches and TNI Command budget. While budget for development including procurement is in MinDef budget. The allocations is not much difference from previous years with MinDef got in average around one third to 40% of budget.
This means as most procurement and development using credit line (domestic or foreign ones), the amount for annual credit installment is around USD 3 bio. Thus this reflect the calculations on potential credit line allotment (which I also made few years back in this thread). The capabilities of budget only able to take +/- USD 20-22 credit line for this term, and most likely on next term.
USD 10 bio budget reflect average 0.7%-0.8% to GDP trend of defense budget. Sometimes that has not been changed much in administrations after Soeharto. Even Soeharto Sometimes only give at most 1% from GDP for defense. If we talk budget for security (including Police and Coast Guard), then it is around 1% of GDP with most of additional budget come from National Police budget.
So back to F-15EX, the question always back where the money come from to afford them while maintaining other procurement including Frigates and Submarines? On this thread I always say either Rafale and F-16 or F-15 and F-16. Both Rafale and F-15 will be too much on budget allocations. Thus if that's being the choices, then again something must give.
If they don't want to sacrifice Navy procurement (as big chunk of defense procurement), then the other AF program that has to give. This meant can be C4ISR, AEW, but also existing fighters upgrade program. It could not only Hawk and Flankers that need to be retire, but also even F-16.
Just don't see money trails is enough unless they double the budget. Can Indonesia afford 1.5% to GDP for defense only ? One thing many local defense enthusiasts forgot that in average Government budget only represents +/- 20% of GDP. So that 0.7-0.8% of GDP already represent 3.5% of overall Government budget. In my opinion, that's already big chunck of Government budget. Getting to 1.5% of GDP at this moment of even in next 5 years, means increasing defense up to 6-7% of Government budgets. Something that difficult to sell politically, unless Indonesia is preparing for armed conflicts.
Boeing Bidik Indonesia sebagai Pasar Sekaligus Pemasok Suku Cadang
Hingga kini, setidaknya ada empat perusahaan yang andil dalam rantai suku cadang manufaktur pesawat Boeing.
www.kompas.id
Boeing try to increase their presents in Indonesian aviation market (civilian and military), by promising more access to Indonesia in becoming part of their Global Chain. Personally for me, if it is still has to be Boeing Fighters, then go with F-18E/F. Then again the momentum for F-15EX seems increasing.
In that, I agree with you, as again something has to give if they go with Rafale and F-15EX. Flashy toys with minimum armaments, but heck they are flashy on airshow and Patrol Duties.
They are will be without enough support on armaments stockpile and proper C4ISR assets. Well supports for them will be coming later on, its not priority. The most important thing, they are good for air show and domestic politics. TNI-AU had been equip by two of most advance Gen 4.5 in the market, and that's the selling point.
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Ananda
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Indonesian Armed Forces inaugurates SIK program
SCYTALYS announced that it has successfully delivered the System Interoperability Kodal (SIK) program to the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) following the succes
www.globaldefenseaerospacepost.com
SCYTALYS annouced that their interoperability system (SIK) already conduct successful trial. This is the cornerstone program for TNI to have network centric environment for all multiple systems in the inventory.
This supposed to enable centralised system that basically enable multiple system, with different data languages to talk with each other. Whether through centralised data interfaces or directly with each other, is something that's not clear yet. However I suspect through the earlier ones. This supposedly to connect data link in Flankers to data link in F-16, through SCYTALYS interface.
If this is run smoothly, this also means TNI can sources their systems from multiple vendors, but can maintain their connection independently without having to have base source code of each systems. Basically I suspect can be said; SCYTALYS provide universal translation and medium for each systems to connect within TNI independent environment.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
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TNI-AU Makasar AB Certification Center Instagram shown trial on Flanker Simulator. Officialy it is source domestically but rumours say it is with Russian certification, so I suspect another Grey area sourcing.
The similar situation from what I heard is also going to happen with Flankers Refurbishment program. Using local vendors but with Russian certification.
Ananda
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DI put this in their online sites, as shown their final rendering of N219 Amphibious. They already got capital injection to increase N219 production line, which going to include the Amphibious variance as part of the pipeline.
DI not having reliable track record for fulfilling their pipeline program, sees whether this also can be in schedule for 2026.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
For many years it is every time proudly announced that IPTN will develop an amphibious version of the N219, so there is no reason to be enthousiast now and believe that in two years the amphibious version is ready for test flights and certification.
In this article they tell that the MTOW will increase because the floats will add 600 kg to the weight of the aircraft.
Unggulkan N219 Amphibi, PT Dirgantara Indonesia Topang Kebutuhan Konektivitas Antarpulau
PT Dirgantara Indonesia menilai Indonesia sebagai negara kepulauan tentunya membutuhkan moda transportasi antarpulau yang mampu menjangkau daerah terpencil. Untuk itu, N219 Amphibi diciptakan untuk menjawab kebutuhan tersebut.
www.inilahkoran.id
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Ananda
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TNI AU Dapat Hibah Tempat Pemeliharaan Mesin Pesawat C-130 Hercules dari AS
TNI Angkatan Udara mendapat hibah tempat pemeliharaan mesin pesawat C-130 Hercules, T56 engine shop, dari Pemerintah Amerika Serikat (AS).
nasional.kompas.com
US going to grant complete facility for MRO of T-56 engine to TNI-AU. Considering there are still 2 sq of C-130H in TNI-AU inventory (around 22-24 planes), the usage for T-56 going to be at least in my prediction until 2040. Thus it is still quite sometime ahead.
The third sq of C-130, which being equip by C-130J, is being rumours will get additional another 5 or 7 C-130J. The rumours that's quite strong now, are talks on getting 5-7 ex RAF C-130J-30. Similar specs with existing brand new C-130J-30, which just arrive from LM facility in Georgia.
Personally I tend to agree on that, as compare to other SOE MIC like PAL or Pindad, DI has more problem whether financial and work environment culture. Still as they already got capital injection for N219 production line, will see if they still able to make turn around production cycle.
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ChestnutTree
Active Member
Anecdotal but I can at least shed some light per my recent interactions with TNI-AU personnel and 1st Comission politicians.
Simply put, they need the sortie generation capacity that the Eagle II's would bring, as well as the political consideration and interests of stakeholders in the government.
The Flankers are a massive drain on funds, and with ongoing warfare in Ukraine it is unlikely that Russia can even support the fleet long-term. They generally rarely ever fly apart from maintaining pilot hours, show flights, and the occasional exercise.
Their previous use for tossing dumb bombs during exercises have now been largely replaced with the MLU Vipers, which are now employing JDAMs.
At the same time the AU can't simply get rid of them since without an immediate replacement, they still need available airframes; they do keep them ready for emergencies. Contrary to popular belief the TNI are closely monitoring developments in the SCS as well as Sino-American relations.
The Eagle II's are kept on at the sacrifice of AWACS as:
- The trade surplus issue with the US is still there, so buying more Rafales won't really cover it.
- The administration for whatever reason or another genuinely don't want more Vipers.
- Much like every TNI procurement project, there are stakeholders within the government.
- The AU reasons to the government that it may be able to operate their fighters effectively for the short to mid-term by relying on the new GCI radars, as well as data linking with other TNI units via the SCYTALIS data link.
Ananda
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@ChestnutTree thanks for the update on F-15EX development. For me personally I'm still hoping for more Vipers then F-15EX/ID, but yes the momentum for EX is gaining, and they wiling to sacrifice (or continue delaying) AEW procurement for that.
Well, I guess that is the choice they're taking as alternate ISTAR strategies. Hope SCYTALYS data link can provide data system network toward reliable area control awareness. Hope the aerial AESA radars in F-15EX and Rafale cam also provide some gap coverage. Not off course the ideal choices without AEW.
Personally for me operating both F-15ID and Rafale concern more on operational budget. More expensive airframes means more expensive operational costs. Something that Vipers should be better choices as Rafale companion, base on that limitations.
Well hopefully MinDef able to better prepare with larger operational budgets for TNI-AU in 2030 time, for covering them. It is the time when F-15ID and Rafale combo should be fully operational. I still have big doubt on that commitment yet, considering the track record so far. Somehow I don't see F-15ID operational costs will be more economical then Flankers (which at this moment they're already admitting is much more then F-16).
Rafale is going to replace Hawk 200, F-15ID going to replace Flankers, and if commitment for KF-21 still follow through, that should be F-16 replacement. Means more expensive fleet to maintain, again just for me add concern on operational budget. Cause that's always the limitations for all three TNI branches. They can buy suitable assets, but doesn't mean (at least track record so far) they can operate them effectively on the potential those assets supposedly.
So they are willing to horse-trade AWACS for missile trucks (assuming that AF have missiles ... not just the truck part).
Curious if the AF ever think about developing cooperative engagement strategy w/ a neighbor (hello Singapore, share your AWACS data lah .... ).
That Scytalis system must be pretty good ......
Perhaps the no more Vipers is a sign that they want to transition the core fighter force to something else to finally complement the Rafale ..... like KF21?
Ananda
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Missiles is going to be interesting choices, as F-15EX using AIM-120, Rafale using MICA and if they still goes ahead with KF-21 means Meteor. However only Meteor that can interchangeable with both KF-21 and Rafale. Potentially also KF-21 can also compatible with AIM 120. With recent announcement from White House that all new build Patriot and AIM 120 order for Export will be given to Ukraine (at the expense of existing allies order), that's put question on reliability of US as export suppliers. Something that I haven't thought possible before (US going to override export contractual commitment).
US still not going to open their system for meteor, eventough UK reported studies integrating their F-35B with Meteor. Integration at least one type of missiles toward all three platform, should be in option. US will not open their F-15 source code for other missiles, but perhaps as Junior Partner Indonesia can also got access toward KF-21 source code. French so far seems also want to be more flexible on that area.
Better they are not messing up with KF-21 as potential it is going to be more flexible assets on different weapons integration for TNI-AU. But considering the track record it is still big potential they are going to mess up with KF-21. If they do that, and KF-21 really out of the table, better they are focus more on Rafale.
This is also what I heard that there is option to replace that 48 KF-21 commitment with 48 Rafale, assembly in DI. Something that also being talk by Korean online forums. They should thread this very carefully.
US still not going to open their system for meteor, eventough UK reported studies integrating their F-35B with Meteor. Integration at least one type of missiles toward all three platform, should be in option. US will not open their F-15 source code for other missiles, but perhaps as Junior Partner Indonesia can also got access toward KF-21 source code. French so far seems also want to be more flexible on that area.
Better they are not messing up with KF-21 as potential it is going to be more flexible assets on different weapons integration for TNI-AU. But considering the track record it is still big potential they are going to mess up with KF-21. If they do that, and KF-21 really out of the table, better they are focus more on Rafale.
This is also what I heard that there is option to replace that 48 KF-21 commitment with 48 Rafale, assembly in DI. Something that also being talk by Korean online forums. They should thread this very carefully.
Meteor has been operational on Rafale for over three years
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Yes, which's why I already put that Meteor that so far only can be interchangeable usage for both Rafale and KF-21. However as F-15ID momentum getting stronger (as ChestnutTree already point out also), means there's one type of Fighters in TNI-AU inventory that need another BVR missile type.
At this moment TNI-AU have three type of BVR missile, AIM 120, R27 and R77. They are planning to simplified that with only AIM 120 and R77, when they move for Su-35 and F-16V as future combo. As the plan momentum now shown of F-15ID, Rafale and KF-21 for next decade combo, I'm just hoping they can get one missile type for all three. Seems they are still need to at least keep 2 type of missiles at best.
ChestnutTree
Active Member
In my opinion it's not that its good, its just the usual Indonesian government way of doing half-measures and assuming things will go right. I hope that they're right in this regard.
Do you have a source for this? Not saying you're wrong but I also heard otherwise from colleagues.
To be fair it's Indonesia, what they explained to me last month could have changed this week. Honestly with you that they should pursue a mix of more Rafales and Vipers instead of this grandiose display of a combat fleet they are trying to push.
Also @Ananda I thought the KF-21 commitment as good as dead?
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www.ft.com
US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby on Thursday confirmed that the US had made the “difficult but necessary decision” to prioritise delivering Patriot and NASAM missiles to Ukraine, delaying deliveries to other countries that had purchased them so that Kyiv can maintain its stockpiles “at a key moment in the war”.
Ananda
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The finance people say they are still being told to reserve budget for the program, in case the negotiation with ROK come to 'amicable' agreement. So it's still in my opinion 50:50, and Indonesia still continue try to bargain. So chances to mess up the commitment.
I put link in KF-21 thread few days ago on first batch of 20 KF-21 order by ROK. Total seems (with airframes and engines) get USD 1.8 bio. At least good start on pricing sides for a Gen 4.5 Fighters this days. Something to think about, when decide whether want to continue in program or just get out.
I do suspect choosing to assemble 48 Rafale in DI will cost more then 48 KF-21. This also depends whether Dasault want to give that license right (they ask India for bigger number on licensing Rafale), while KAI do already give that right (as long as Indonesia pay the dues). Like I said few years back in this thread, I do support KF-21 program for Indonesia. However be realistic and act as good Junior Partner and accept that our rights only as license holder in the program, and not equal ownership. After all that's 20% portion rights give you in a project.
Note:
Koxinga already answered your inquiry on US decision to prioritize Ukraine on the missiles order (on top others that already have effective contract). Personally I suspect Republican will cancel that, if they win next election.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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PT DI harap pembelian Black Hawk kontrak efektif Triwulan III 2024
Perseroan Terbatas Dirgantara Indonesia (PT DI) berharap 24 helikopter Sikorsky S-70M Black Hawk yang rencananya dibeli oleh Pemerintah dari perusahaan asal ...
m.antaranews.com
DI CEO talk in Media that he is hoping effective contract implementation for 24 Black Hawk be conducted this quarter (Q3). From what he described, basically this is similar deal that DI got from Airbus Helicopter.
DI go license to conduct final integration and customisation of Sikorsky helicopter, including finalisation on installment of add on assets. Just like Airbus and Bell, DI also got MRO license. Still DI also expect in future they can get airframes job as Airbus does with them.
Ananda
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Radar GCI Hasil Kolab RI-Prancis Cover IKN, Apa Hebatnya?
Sebanyak 13 unit radar GCI yang tengah diproduksi bareng Prancis bakal lindungi IKN. Simak keunggulannya.
www-cnnindonesia-com.cdn.ampproject.org
LEN CEO (which also CEO of Defend ID, Indonesia SOE MIC Holding), talk with media on progress of 13 CGI radar they are working with Thales. The radar GM 403 being build with most components come from Thales, other parts license build by LEN, but LEN conduct final assembly. This 13 GCI radar are part of 25 new GCI radars that being acquire to replace some old ones, and add new sites for Radar installation.
Other 12 will be supply by Czech Retia, which from other media reported as their RL-3DL type. With existing GCI radars, this 25 new GCI will be integrate into chain of GCI radars network. As @ChestnutTree put in his recent post, this network will be TNI-AU answer for lack of AEW. TNI AU also talk on getting more radars including some as back up (which I suspect more as redundancies coverage) to what seems interlocking coverage GCI network.
Well that's so far their answer for Radar Coverage network chain.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Seems MinDef offcial site already put the picture of GCI radars GM-403 as collaboration result between French (Thales) and Indonesia (LEN). Seems confirmation that LEN license program from Thales will result mobile GCI platform.
Well mobile in sense the fixed set can be transpotable toward new sites (if need be).