That is a lot of docks.
It raises the question of what might FBW and Henderson actually need to support in the future (2040 onwards). We have a good understanding of our own vessels and would probably see 3 Hunters, 6 GPFs, 3 LOCSVs, 6 SSNs and an AOR based permanently in the west. So that' something around 19 RAN vessels, and quite a big step up from today (4 ANZACs, 1 AOR, 6 subs for a total of 11).
I would have thought the landing ships are all going to be based out of Darwin, Cairns or Townsville with the patrol boats, hence the additional jetty and docking facilities in those regions. Sydney will keep the rest of the fleet.
The big question for me is how much of a USN presence remains in FBW. Do they keep the rotational force west (4 SSNs) indefinitely. Do they expand it to include a destroyer squadron, or perhaps even an expeditionary group.
Hard to know, however in my view the Americans consider FBW (and our other ports) as a strategic long term asset. Access to it is what they want out of the AUKUS deal (plus the Darwin area for the US army and marines). So I can see that they could well keep their SSNs based in FBW for the long term and perhaps add to them (even after we have ours). We will have a first rate facility for SSN training and maintenance by that time, at least equal or better to what they have elsewhere.
It's then not a big jump to include a number of Burkes or Constellations to the rotational force, say five or six. It provides them some heavy duty protection for their assets and people in Australia. Maybe they add a couple of AORs at the same time.
If the USMC is going to be serious about basing or surging forces out of Darwin (which they seem to be), then eventually they would move their expeditionary ships to support them. I'm talking about the big LHDs, San Antonios, the even bigger expeditionary sea bases, plus the smaller landing ships (like the ones we are building) and their fast transports (the Austal ones). This beast dwarfs anything, and if it starts rotating out of Australia, it will need an equally massive facility to support it. There could easily be another 20 ships to look after in this armada.
Darwin is the logical place for them during active manoeuvres, but it would be difficult to logistically support them from there all the time. I could see the smaller ships basing out of Darwin with our equivalent vessels, but all the large stuff would likely need to go to FBW. Say an America/Wasp class, a couple of San Antonios and a sea base.
So if you add all that up, FBW could (in a possible universe) need to house our 20 odd vessels, plus another 20 USN ones. Makes for a very crowded facility.
And if you are going that far you might as well throw in an Aircraft carrier.
That starts to look a lot like Japan and the seventh fleet.
My head hurts, I need a panadol.